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Pete Alcock, Cumberland Lodge June 2011


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Pete Alcock, Cumberland Lodge June 2011

  1. 1. Future Trends – what will the sector look like in 2015? Pete Alcock University of Birmingham
  2. 2. Political Drivers <ul><li>Big Society agenda – Civil Society at the centre of politics? </li></ul><ul><li>From top-down to bottom-up politics </li></ul><ul><li>- Government commitment to civil society will wane </li></ul><ul><li>- Sector politics will be more diverse </li></ul><ul><li>- Big Society will not be achieved </li></ul>
  3. 3. Policy Drivers <ul><li>Public service delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage giving and volunteering </li></ul><ul><li>Support community organising </li></ul><ul><li>New models of investment </li></ul><ul><li>- No breakthrough in public service delivery </li></ul><ul><li>- No breakthrough in philanthropy </li></ul><ul><li>- Limited success for new investment </li></ul><ul><li>- Horizontal support will remain </li></ul>
  4. 4. Institutional Drivers <ul><li>Office for Civil Society </li></ul><ul><li>Third Sector Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Devolved administrations </li></ul><ul><li>- OCS profile reduced </li></ul><ul><li>- Mergers and restructuring in infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>- Sector diversity will remain </li></ul><ul><li>- Devolved administrations will resist marketisation </li></ul>
  5. 5. Economic Drivers <ul><li>Public expenditure cuts </li></ul><ul><li>Marketisation of public services </li></ul><ul><li>Limited economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>- Rise in sector income will slow down </li></ul><ul><li>- Marketisation will lead to increasing bifurcation within the sector </li></ul><ul><li>- Dependency on public funding will remain </li></ul>
  6. 6. Revolution or Evolution? <ul><li>Coalition policies will face similar challenges to previous governments </li></ul><ul><li>Sector boundaries and hybridisation will be accentuated </li></ul><ul><li>2000s will be seen as ‘high water mark’ in public support and engagement </li></ul><ul><li>Third Sector will be as strong, and as diverse, as ever… </li></ul>