The inevitable limitations of
managing migration
Kevin Richardson
‘….it is possible that the population
declines in absolute numbers and that it
grows older at the same time. ….this
would ...
Estimated Population of Newcastle
250000
255000
260000
265000
270000
275000
280000
285000
290000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
...
Estimated Population of Newcastle
250,000
255,000
260,000
265,000
270,000
275,000
280,000
285,000
290,000 1981
1983
1985
1...
Estimated Population of Newcastle
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
19...
Excess of Births over Deaths in Newcastle
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
20...
Total Fertility Rates
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Number...
Newcastle Working Age Projections
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
201...
New NI Numbers Issued in 2008
to non UK Nationals in Newcastle
N=4190
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Romania
Malaysia Slovak Rep
Franc...
Country of Birth of Mother:
Babies Born in Newcastle 2008 N=960
(exluding England & Wales N=2333)
Scotland
Poland
China
Ni...
Citizenship Ceremonies in Newcastle
byCountryof Origin May'04 - Aug '08
N=2296
Children born in UK
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
...
Newcastle Long Run Trends in Births and Deaths
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500 1987
1988
1989
1990
1...
….a fairly standard
profile……but who
will replace the
baby boomers
when they retire?
A Commentary
• Our people are changing very quickly (size and structure)
• European Union only one source of migrants. Ove...
A Matrix of Limitations
• Legal
• Physical
• Demographic
• Economic
• European
• Central
Government
• Regional Policy
Limitations of EU Regional Policy
• UK, Sweden and Eire first to act and gain advantage – but all remaining Member
States ...
“As we control our
borders and bring
immigration to a
manageable level,
we will not impede
you from attracting
the best ta...
Limitations of Central Government Policy
• Managing political perceptions within wider supremacy of EU directives
and regu...
Source: DWP
New NI Registrations 2006-07
Core Cities and London
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Birmingham Bristo...
Limitations of UK Regional Policy
• A free market approach relies upon elastic response of
mobile labour to places of comp...
“Today the
battle for talent
is as important
as the battle
for capital.”
OECD November 2006
Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010
Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010
Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010
Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010
Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010
Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010
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Final kevin richardson migration presentation northumbria university november 2010

  1. 1. The inevitable limitations of managing migration Kevin Richardson
  2. 2. ‘….it is possible that the population declines in absolute numbers and that it grows older at the same time. ….this would have repercussions for the labour market, the housing market, the social and physical infrastructure of the region, and the current knowledge based growth strategy. A population which is shrinking …..needs to be anticipated in time….’ “…..a sophisticated view of future demographic trends …..is required. This understanding does not appear to exist at the moment, and is needed.”
  3. 3. Estimated Population of Newcastle 250000 255000 260000 265000 270000 275000 280000 285000 290000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 266,000 284,300
  4. 4. Estimated Population of Newcastle 250,000 255,000 260,000 265,000 270,000 275,000 280,000 285,000 290,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
  5. 5. Estimated Population of Newcastle 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
  6. 6. Excess of Births over Deaths in Newcastle 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ……like most Core Cities, a recent welcome (but largely unexplained) return to an excess of births over deaths births deaths
  7. 7. Total Fertility Rates 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 NumberofChildren Gateshead New castle upon Tyne
  8. 8. Newcastle Working Age Projections 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Thousands ……a worst case scenario – ONS projections of our working age population should we do not attract a net surplus of 2,100 economic migrants year on year ONS projections of working age population assuming a surplus of 2,100 economic migrants per annum ..and without those migrants
  9. 9. New NI Numbers Issued in 2008 to non UK Nationals in Newcastle N=4190 Sri Lanka Pakistan Romania Malaysia Slovak Rep France India PRC Poland Nigeria
  10. 10. Country of Birth of Mother: Babies Born in Newcastle 2008 N=960 (exluding England & Wales N=2333) Scotland Poland China Nigeria Pakistan India Bangladesh
  11. 11. Citizenship Ceremonies in Newcastle byCountryof Origin May'04 - Aug '08 N=2296 Children born in UK Bangladesh Afghanistan Iraq Philippines Pakistan India Iran
  12. 12. Newcastle Long Run Trends in Births and Deaths 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ……rates of birth well below that needed to repopulate without migration
  13. 13. ….a fairly standard profile……but who will replace the baby boomers when they retire?
  14. 14. A Commentary • Our people are changing very quickly (size and structure) • European Union only one source of migrants. Overall picture is much more complex • Without sustained inward migration our population will fall and get older • Incoming migration not predicted, promoted, planned or managed. • Few chose Newcastle as a destination of open choice. Prior image of Newcastle was either neutral or none. • Persistent patterns of outgoing migration • But we’re not really sure what is happening – we don’t yet have that ‘sophisticated’ understanding.
  15. 15. A Matrix of Limitations • Legal • Physical • Demographic • Economic • European • Central Government • Regional Policy
  16. 16. Limitations of EU Regional Policy • UK, Sweden and Eire first to act and gain advantage – but all remaining Member States now beginning to meet Treaty obligations – and are opening borders to workers from Accessionary States in advance of 2011/13 deadline. • Massive investments in high speed rail (and air) networks (especially across Northern and Central Europe) offers real potential for dense, complex and non traditional patterns of migration • Long term challenge to redistributive elements of Common Agricultural Policy suggests fundamental structural reform and dislocation of remaining, relatively highly populated (and poor) agricultural regions, especially in Eastern Europe. • Ever deepening of cross border trade e.g. implementation of Services Directive requires inevitable increased mobility of labour • Extension of Schengen area but existing land borders inevitability porous e.g. Romania/Moldova, Poland/Kaliningrad, Poland/Ukraine, Spain/Italy/Northern Africa, Turkey/Cyprus • Trend pressure to open trading borders further to include Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and (populous and very poor) Turkey
  17. 17. “As we control our borders and bring immigration to a manageable level, we will not impede you from attracting the best talent from around the world” Rt. Hon. David Cameron Speech to CBI 25th October 2010
  18. 18. Limitations of Central Government Policy • Managing political perceptions within wider supremacy of EU directives and regulations, and other supranational binding conventions e.g. Convention on Treatment of Asylum Seekers • Divergent motivations of different government departments (tax, security of borders, cohesion, productivity, skills, territorial development). Differing expectations of devolved administrations. • Differentiated local impacts and responses (North/South, urban/rural, industrial/service/agricultural, absolute/relative numbers, knowledge/production workers) • Official ONS population statistical methodology (largely mathematical & mechanical) effectively redundant by circumstance • Repeated need for legislative revisions e.g. Nine Immigration Bills in eleven years….and more to come? • Managing impact of London as gateway ‘mega’ global capital
  19. 19. Source: DWP New NI Registrations 2006-07 Core Cities and London 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Birmingham Bristol Leeds Liverpool Manchester New castle Nottingham Sheffield London ……a working age population much greater than that of Newcastle arrived to work in London in just one year
  20. 20. Limitations of UK Regional Policy • A free market approach relies upon elastic response of mobile labour to places of comparative advantage e.g. higher relative net salaries and lower costs • Traditional strategies founded on endogenous growth theory and supply side ‘productivity’ horizontal policies both implicitly assume a sufficient (elastic) supply of labour • Little real evidence of reduced regional disparities across the UK regions – and convergence less likely during periods of economic downturn. Most population growth (based almost exclusively on inward migration) forecast by ONS to be centred on (already congested) London, South and South East.
  21. 21. “Today the battle for talent is as important as the battle for capital.” OECD November 2006

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