Cows are the product Cells or meat is the product
No gene edits or modification.
The price parity point of cell-based meat is reached.
Traditional farmscape Cell-ag farmscape
Otherwise “cell-ag farmscape”
The Cell-Ag Farmscape
AsoftodayA day of a cell-ag farmer
Less number of cows mean less cleaning, feeding, waste treatment
More facility management and cell culture protocol dev., as in brewery
Feed (hay, corn, whole
Manure waste management
8:00 Noon 16:00 20:00
Difference of income and expenditure
Traditional livestock farmer
Expenditure: Feed, waste disposal, equipments
Income: Calves(breeders), Cattles(ranchers)
Cellular agriculture farmer
Expenditure: Medium, facility, (feed, waste disposal)
Income: Meat, Cell license
Income with higher unit price (sells meat)
30kg crops⇒1kg meat : 3kg medium⇒1kg meat
The price of beverages with compositions similar to
culture medium is $10/kg, $3/kg before refinement
Facilities (similar to brewery) are the cost driver
Probably costs more than barns
- Expenditure for culture
medium than feed
- 3X more income for the
same mass of output
(more info later)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, forestry and fishery, Japan
Dairy Breeder Rancher
Incomes of animal agriculture farmers in Japan, 2005 to 2007
100$ 100$ 100$
The price of raw materials for cell-based meat
 Good Food Institute (2016) Calculated based on 
The need for GF’s is expected to diminish as technologies improve
←Raw materials in powder
Mixture of glucose, amino acids, vitamins & minerals
Priced ~$1/kg, 1kg dissolved to 75L water for medium
1: FGF2 & TGFβ at insulin price
3: All GF’s at $4/g
4: Basal medium at $0.23/L
Mainstream demand for cell-based meat requires large supply of inexpensive amino acids. Novel
raw materials and production process (the incumbent is fermentation) must be developed.
(Beef 60Mt, Pork 110Mt,
Figures are as of 2011, Geographic Annals 2014 (Ninomiya Books) ※1 https://www.alic.go.jp/joho-d/joho08_000573.html ※2 Monthly Report, MAFF Japan March 2015,
http://www.maff.go.jp/j/zyukyu/jki/j_rep/monthly/201503/201503.html ※3 USDA「World Markets and Trade」 ※4 Ajinomoto Co. Ltd.
Source: Mr. Akito Chinen
2nd Cell-Ag Conf. in Japan
Sources of amino acids for cell-based meat
The price of facilities for cell-based meat
It is customary to to consider the cost of the plant as
varying by about the 0.6th power (New Scientist vol.17, No.326 p355)
CA = The construction cost of Plant A
CB = The construction cost of comparable Plant B at different capacity
SA = The capacity of Plant A
SB = The capacity of Plant B
The upfront investment is
relatively large, hinting
Large players benefit from
economy of scale - small
players would compete by
Estimated construction costs
(Est. by IntegriCulture Inc. / 2017)
0.6th power rule & 7-year depreciation assumed
Scale Cost Cost per kg meat
100kg/mon. $0.3M $33
1t/mon. $1.2M $13
10t/mon. $4.8M $5
100t/mon. $19M $2
1000t/mon. $75M $0.8
● Successful branding of individual cell source cows can create value.
● Some farmers may be more successful than others at such effort.
● The brand life cycle may be shorter in cell-based meat.
● Co-product industry i.e. organic manure would face a disruption.
Distribution along the value chain
Value chain similar
to a line breeding
or OPU cow
Est. by 2018 market in Japan
Thick color = high added value
Business models of meat in cell-ag era
People cell culture
“Pop star talent agency for farm animals”
・Any amount of cell-based meat can
be produced from an individual
・Brands may become animal
individual based than breed lines - a
huge diversification in brands occur.
・Pet animal talent agencies
(i.e. https://www.hollywoodpaws.com/ )
can expand to farm animals.
・Branding may be based on
individuals, locality, farm, farmer etc.
A talent agency may own a cow to
be raised by a farmer on contract.
Food, health and data in one service
Agile development of functional meat by health data
Intellectual properties in cellular agriculture
Cell source Cell culture knowhows Large scale production
Define by gene sequence?
Copyright for genome sequence?
Monitoring of cell thefts & piracy?
Global IP protection scheme?
May be defined by genomes
and cell culture recipe - kept
secret or made open?
Disclose recipe and materials
to win consumer trust?
Production process IP’s
Bioreactors, control software
and hardwares - competition
is expected among cellular
Would existing meat industry
have access to technology?
Brands Animal individual brands
Unfit for animals with short life?
Branding by farms
Animal individual brands can be
associated with the name of
“Meat Brewery Meister”
Meat brewery can be
branded just like winery
Branding by materials
“Culture medium by Evian
Identical to existing food and
“Proudly produced in XXX”
“Made in XXX” brands
Farmers that actively create new values with cell-ag tech win.
Turns out cell culture protocol is all that
matters and bloodlines are meaningless?
The Wild Cards (Low probability big impact events)
Carbon tax imposed on
meat, spiking the price?
Weather or political event
causing food embargo?
←2013 Russian food
embargo - countries
affected & alternative
Animal welfare movement bans
international trading of meat?