The Cellular Agriculture Farmscape Version 2020.01

Cell-based meat
Muscle cells
Bioreactor
(Large tank)
Cell culture
and etc
Maturing
⇒Shipping

Less cows
Bioreactors in
the backyard
Many cows
Cows are the product Cells or meat is the product
No gene edits or modification.
The price parity point of cell-based meat is reached.
Traditional farmscape Cell-ag farmscape
Assumptions:
Otherwise “cell-ag farmscape”
never happens
The Cell-Ag Farmscape

AsoftodayA day of a cell-ag farmer
Cell-ag
farmer
Less number of cows mean less cleaning, feeding, waste treatment
More facility management and cell culture protocol dev., as in brewery
cleaning,
feeding,
health checks
Feed (hay, corn, whole
crops) preparation
Manure waste management
cleaning,
feeding,
health checks
4:00
wakeup
breakfast
lunch
dinner
tobed
break break
8:00 Noon 16:00 20:00

Difference of income and expenditure
Traditional livestock farmer
Expenditure: Feed, waste disposal, equipments
Income: Calves(breeders), Cattles(ranchers)
Cellular agriculture farmer
Expenditure: Medium, facility, (feed, waste disposal)
Income: Meat, Cell license
Income with higher unit price (sells meat)
Unit prices
30kg crops⇒1kg meat : 3kg medium⇒1kg meat
The price of beverages with compositions similar to
culture medium is $10/kg, $3/kg before refinement
Facilities (similar to brewery) are the cost driver
Probably costs more than barns
- Expenditure for culture
medium than feed
- 3X more income for the
same mass of output
Cattle: $15/kg
Carcass: $45/kg
Meat: $70/kg
(more info later)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, forestry and fishery, Japan
Dairy Breeder Rancher
Incomes of animal agriculture farmers in Japan, 2005 to 2007
Pork100$
100$ 100$ 100$
Others
Feed
Profit
margin
Expenditures
Rawincome

The price of raw materials for cell-based meat
[1] Good Food Institute (2016) [2]Calculated based on [1]
The need for GF’s is expected to diminish as technologies improve
←Raw materials in powder
Mixture of glucose, amino acids, vitamins & minerals
Priced ~$1/kg, 1kg dissolved to 75L water for medium
Medium Meat
$15/L[1]
$36.6/lb[1]
$4.7/L[1]
$11.5/lb[1]
$3.7/L[1]
$9.0/lb[1]
$0.77/L[2]
$2.2/lb[2]
Scenario
1: FGF2 & TGFβ at insulin price
2: A&B
3: All GF’s at $4/g
4: Basal medium at $0.23/L

Mainstream demand for cell-based meat requires large supply of inexpensive amino acids. Novel
raw materials and production process (the incumbent is fermentation) must be developed.
Rice
720Mt
Wheat, Barley
830Mt
Corn
880Mt
Cassava, Tubers
630Mt
Soy
260Mt
Sugar beet
Canes, 2.1Bt
Oil
Palms
Starch※1
40Mt
Sugar
170Mt
Meats 300Mt
(Beef 60Mt, Pork 110Mt,
Poultry 80Mt※3
)
Bioethanol※2
100BL
Amino acids※4
6Mt
Oil
40Mt
Food
(Carbs)
Cell-based
meat
Plant-based
protein sources
Process
residue
Food
(Fats)
Food
(Carbs)
Figures are as of 2011, Geographic Annals 2014 (Ninomiya Books) ※1 https://www.alic.go.jp/joho-d/joho08_000573.html ※2 Monthly Report, MAFF Japan March 2015,
http://www.maff.go.jp/j/zyukyu/jki/j_rep/monthly/201503/201503.html ※3 USDA「World Markets and Trade」 ※4 Ajinomoto Co. Ltd.
Food
(Protein)
Food
(Protein)
Source: Mr. Akito Chinen
2nd Cell-Ag Conf. in Japan
Sources of amino acids for cell-based meat

The price of facilities for cell-based meat
It is customary to to consider the cost of the plant as
varying by about the 0.6th power (New Scientist vol.17, No.326 p355)
CA = The construction cost of Plant A
CB = The construction cost of comparable Plant B at different capacity
SA = The capacity of Plant A
SB = The capacity of Plant B
CB＝CA×(SB/SA)^0.6
The upfront investment is
relatively large, hinting
community-scale facilities.
Large players benefit from
economy of scale - small
players would compete by
differentiated branding
Estimated construction costs
(Est. by IntegriCulture Inc. / 2017)
0.6th power rule & 7-year depreciation assumed
Scale Cost Cost per kg meat
100kg/mon. $0.3M $33
1t/mon. $1.2M $13
10t/mon. $4.8M $5
100t/mon. $19M $2
1000t/mon. $75M $0.8
200L 200t

Breeding
$7000
Husbandry
+$4000
Sperm
Slaughter
+$4000
Sales &
distribution
Brand management
(Husbandry)
Breeding
Cell culture
Sales &
distribution
● Successful branding of individual cell source cows can create value.
● Some farmers may be more successful than others at such effort.
● The brand life cycle may be shorter in cell-based meat.
● Co-product industry i.e. organic manure would face a disruption.
(Sperm)
Brand management
Distribution along the value chain
Value chain similar
to a line breeding
or OPU cow
Cow
$10,000
To
date
Cell
Ag
Calf
$7,000
Meat
$15,000
Est. by 2018 market in Japan
Thick color = high added value

Business models of meat in cell-ag era
Fabless
farmers
Contract
farmer
Lend
cows
Meat
brewery
Sends
cells
Sells
meat
Fabless
farmer
Farmers
Cell
licensing
Cell
bank
Sends
cells
Food
companies
Sells
meat
Shared
recipe
Recipe
website
Warehouse
People cell culture
protocols
Domestic
culture vat
Down-
load
Farmers Stores
cells
Sends
cells
Cell-Ag
Firms
People
Cell-ag firm
“New farmer”
People
Sells
meat
Food
companies
Meat
brewery
Sells
cells

“Pop star talent agency for farm animals”
・Any amount of cell-based meat can
be produced from an individual
・Brands may become animal
individual based than breed lines - a
huge diversification in brands occur.
・Pet animal talent agencies
(i.e. https://www.hollywoodpaws.com/ )
can expand to farm animals.
・Branding may be based on
individuals, locality, farm, farmer etc.
Talent agency
Cell-based
meat
Brand
develop
ment
Food
companies
A talent agency may own a cow to
be raised by a farmer on contract.
Farmer

Farmer B
Food, health and data in one service
Farmer A
Health
data
Health
data
Unique cell
culture recipes
Agile development of functional meat by health data
Unique cell
culture recipes

Intellectual properties in cellular agriculture
Cell source Cell culture knowhows Large scale production
Physical
material
Breed ownership
Sperm management?
Define by gene sequence?
Cell ownership
Copyright for genome sequence?
Monitoring of cell thefts & piracy?
Global IP protection scheme?
Meat recipe?
May be defined by genomes
and cell culture recipe - kept
secret or made open?
Transparency
Disclose recipe and materials
to win consumer trust?
Production process IP’s
Bioreactors, control software
and hardwares - competition
is expected among cellular
agriculture companies.
Would existing meat industry
have access to technology?
Brands Animal individual brands
Unfit for animals with short life?
Branding by farms
Animal individual brands can be
associated with the name of
farmers.
“Meat Brewery Meister”
Meat brewery can be
branded just like winery
Branding by materials
“Culture medium by Evian
Water”?
Corporate brands
Identical to existing food and
beverage companies?
Factory brands
“Proudly produced in XXX”
“Made in XXX” brands
Farmers that actively create new values with cell-ag tech win.

Turns out cell culture protocol is all that
matters and bloodlines are meaningless?
The Wild Cards (Low probability big impact events)
Carbon tax imposed on
meat, spiking the price?
Source: FAO
http://www.fao.org/
gleam/results/en/
Weather or political event
causing food embargo?
←2013 Russian food
embargo - countries
affected & alternative
import sources
Animal welfare movement bans
international trading of meat?
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