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New Harvest 2020 slides from Shojinmeat Project - Will there be a monopoly corporation, driving all farmers out of their jobs?

“Elephant in the room” - Will there be a monopoly corporation, driving all farmers out of their jobs?” - Slides originally prepared for New Harvest 2020, on cell-based meat, industrialization of cellular agriculture, and how "being a farmer" can change in the future.

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New Harvest 2020 slides from Shojinmeat Project - Will there be a monopoly corporation, driving all farmers out of their jobs?

  1. 1. “Elephant in the room” - Will there be a monopoly corporation, driving all farmers out of their jobs?”
 2020.04 “NH2020”
  2. 2. “Shojinmeat Project” - Who we are “Democratization of cellular agriculture” Nonprofit non-corporate non-university citizen science community of DIY bio/fab enthusiasts, students, researcher, artists, writers etc. for cellular agriculture Open source cellular agriculture” by DIY bio Public communication by art and education
  3. 3. Spinoffs Citizen Science For-profit Startup Non-Profit 2014 2015 2017 2019
  4. 4. Ongoing cellular agriculture projects Wild Type Fish without catch IntegriCulture Foie gras without ducks Shiok Meats Shrimp without pond or catch The products are not “imitations” - they are (or try to be) molecularly the same! Perfect Day Milk without cows Clara Foods Egg white without chicken Ginkgo Bioworks Vanilla, scent, various ingredients
  5. 5. Dr. Marianne Ellis, 2017 Implementation of scaled production methods ⇒”Chemical engineering”, “Plant Engineering”Integration and systemization Cell-ag going for scale
  6. 6. Farmers out of jobs? Culinary diversity lost? Repeat of GMO? Will people like it?
  7. 7. ppet.2019.104408 Literature on “GMO vs. Cell-Ag” Compares GMO and cell-ag: Traces the evolution of public sentiment and actions taken by the industry
  8. 8. The conditions of cell-ag entering mainstream Time Cost-benefit (Customer satisfaction divided by the price) conventional meatPrice Parity (PP) cell-based meat
  9. 9. World around PP Photography: Fujifilm and Kodak ・A “disruption” occurs with its ripple effect to surrounding industries like processing, byproducts, packaging etc. ・PP is reached earlier for beef than chicken, for meat importers (i.e. Japan) than for exporters (i.e. US) “Kodak Moment”, sooner or later
  10. 10. The scenarios after price parity Time Cost-benefit (Customer satisfaction divided by the price) conventional meat Price Parity (PP) PPNow Capital intensive Not capital intensive cell-based meat ?
  11. 11. How much do you need to launch a business? “It is customary to to consider the cost of the plant as varying by about the 0.6th power” (New Scientist vol.17, No.326 p355) CA = The construction cost of Plant A CB = The construction cost of comparable Plant B at different capacity SA = The capacity of Plant A SB = The capacity of Plant B CB=CA×(SB/SA)^0.6 The upfront investment appears relatively large, hinting a community- scale facility. Scale Cost Cost per kg meat 100kg/mon. $0.3M $33 1t/mon. $1.2M $13 10t/mon. $4.8M $5 100t/mon. $19M $2 1000t/mon. $75M $0.8 Q: “What is the minimum efficient scale (MES) of cell-based meat?” (Estimated by IntegriCulture Inc. / 2017) 0.6th power rule & 7-year depreciation assumed
  12. 12. High-MES “Capital intensive” scenario ・2 to 3 cell-ag companies per country (like automotive industries) ・Very high minimum efficient scale - economy of scale is everything ・Foxconn-style “cell culture foundries” is possible ↑Transport of amino acids to cell-ag plant with big tankers ←Littoral petrochemical plants are replaced by cell-ag plants
  13. 13. ・Economy of scale is not everything - room for other competitive edges ・Equipments and ingredients are commodities, like restaurant industry ・Open source cultured meat, nonproprietary recipe, DIY cell culture vats Low-MES “Not capital intensive” scenario
  14. 14. ・The minimum efficient scale at the price parity determines the outcome. ・Potentially, the same is true for other cell-ag products i.e. fur, timber, seafood. Minimum efficient scale (Required size of capital for market entry) time PP not reached Capital intensive Not capital intensive Cell culture & cooking - not distinguished Democratization Reach PP High-MES scenario Reach PP Low-MES scenario Under which scenario cell-ag enters mainstream?
  15. 15. “DIY meat” shifting that balance? More manuals s/13TsVy0JrSxFl4ZoYe6D_uPfDYr 3d2P5e culture-manual-the-roadmap-to-diy-cell based-meat Home cell culture manual
  16. 16. Development of DIY bio equipments DIY incubator Temperature can be set to ~40℃ by reducing the AC input voltage of a towel warmer from ~100V to 30V. The blueprint of DIY incubator is on GitHub. Both are at ~$100. by @okgw_ Household fan centrifuge (~100G at ~1000rpm) Egg white antimycotic and DIY clean bench entry/2015/01/05/202524 (@earthlyworld
  17. 17. ・“DIY meat” may reduce the minimum efficient scale, pushing the balance toward the right. ・Continued development in DIY meat acts as a tidal force pushing industry decisions toward the right. time PP not reached Capital intensive Not capital intensive Cell culture & cooking - not distinguished Democratization Shifted scenario “DIY meat” may shift the balance Minimum efficient scale Reach PP High-MES scenario Reach PP Low-MES scenario
  18. 18. Scenes beyond “Scenario 2” ・Local farmers and town butchers can develop their own cell-based meat recipe. ・Brand ownership opportunity opens up for local farmers. ・Hobbyists come up with unique meat recipe.
  19. 19. Celebrity Star Cow branded beef The cell source Star Cow is alive Scan the QR code printed on package Watch the Star Cow
  20. 20. Less cows Bioreactors in the backyard Many cows Cows are the product Cells or meat is the product Traditional farmscape Cell-ag farmscape The Cell-Ag Farmscape Farmers sell meat ($70/kg), not cow ($15/kg) Farmers may sell or license cells
  21. 21. AsoftodayA day of a cell-ag farmer Cell-ag farmer Less number of cows mean less cleaning, feeding, waste treatment More facility management and cell culture protocol dev., as in brewery cleaning, feeding, health checks Feed (hay, corn, whole crops) preparation Manure waste management cleaning, feeding, health checks 4:00 wakeup breakfast lunch dinner tobed break break 8:00 Noon 16:00 20:00
  22. 22. Business models of meat in cell-ag era Fabless farmers Contract farmer Lend cows Meat brewery Sends cells Sells meat Fabless farmer Farmers Cell licensing Cell bank Sends cells Food companies Sells meat Shared recipe Recipe website Warehouse People cell culture protocols Domestic culture vat Down- load Farmers Stores cells Sends cells Cell-Ag Firms People Cell-ag firm “New farmer” People Sells meat Food companies Meat brewery Sells cells More info↓ https://www.slideshare. net/2co/the-cellular-agri culture-farmscape
  23. 23. Urban Cell-Ag Farmscape One cow is sufficient Unnoticeable biopsy: Hair cells to stem cells, Stem cells to everything Farm in a downtown skyscraper
  24. 24. Ultimately democratized cellular agriculture? Community bioreactor Zero footprint vertical farms Merger of farm & city
  25. 25. Technological frameworks needed Inexpensive & accessible bioreactors Commodity culture medium Open cell culture recipe platform Cheap? DIY? Easily rentable? Accessible non-exclusive cell bank and market Prevention of “pirated meat” & room for end users to develop their own competitive edge
  26. 26. Regulatory frameworks needed Cell certification & indexing Standard Food safety rules Availability of raw materials & facilities
  27. 27. Points of caution in regulatory frameworks Cell certification & indexing Is the certification process something farmers can afford? Standard Food safety rules Are they practically adherable by SME’s and local restaurants But, who can observe these rules in practice? Availability of raw materials & facilities Are they something farmers, SME’s & local restaurants can get?
  28. 28. Rulemaking, lead by what interests? Inclusiveness? Food companies Farmers Cell-ag startups Academics Policy makers General public Additional Potential stakeholders (New Harvest / GFI equivalent in Japan) Wishlist Wishlist for policy makers & regulators, with representations of included parties Ideally, No one left behind in “cell-ag revolution”
  29. 29. Who will do bat meat? There will always be some demand for exotic meat, but big companies are unlikely to do such niche product. Without democratized cellular agriculture, meat from the wild will stay and pandemics would repeat
  30. 30. Key takeaways ・Farmer job losses and corporate monopoly (and repeat of GMO’s) has been an “elephant in the room”. ・As cell-based meat reaches price parity, the MES is one of the factors that determines the industry landscape. ・DIY cellular agriculture technology pushes the balance toward democratization, opening various business models and product ideas for farmers, individuals and SME’s. ・Democratized cellular agriculture comes with some technological, regulatory and rulemaking considerations.