How would recent surge of public interest in cell-based meat play out for the industry? Hype cycle? Price parity? Disruption? What will we see when cell-based meat enters mainstream? Monopoly mega-corporation? Home meat breweries? And when?
World after cell-ag entering mainstream?
What will happen to farm animals and
Large factory by monopoly corporation?
Who sells cell-based meat and how?
What would happen until then?
“Disruptive technology” in general
・Performance of disruptive technology increases with time.
・Conventional technology is outperformed at the PP.
・Fundamentally inferior technology never reach the PP.
In case of cell-based meat….
・Performance of cell-based meat increases with time.
・Conventional meat is outperformed at the PP.
・Conventional meat stays, if cell-based meat is inferior.
※This slides assume
fundamental superiority of
Includes everything, from taste,
ethical feel-good factor etc.
Scenarios of cell-based meat entering mainstream
・What might happen until the price parity is reached?
・What might happen after the price parity?
・What should we do in the world after meat price parity？
・The cell-based meat hype may
・Initial products would be limited to
nuggets, foie gras etc., and generally
fail (overblown) expectations.
・Would get through the worst in
2030s, but the share would be 0.1%
・But the PP will eventually be met as
・Companies need strategies to go
over the trough of disillusionment
When the PP nears in (late 2020’s)
Animal welfare organizations would serve as the “canary”
- Increased frequency of posts like “Let’s everybody eat XXX (specific
cell-based product brands)” on socials networks hint the PP closing in.
Meat industry lobbying is already resisting
- The main arena would be in marketing, categorization, labeling and
food safety regulations. (Possibility of smear campaign)
- Bold forward moves will be found in regions with little meat industry
lobbies like Singapore.
Pro and anti lobbies fight
across “The Chasm” by
sending messages that
target “Early Adopters”.
PP Reached = Disruption
Fujifilm and Kodak
・The cost-benefit of cell-based meat will
gradually increase to the PP.
・Once PP is reached, the market share of
cell-based meat increases exponentially.
・New markets that never existed under
conventional meat emerges
・Surrounding industries like processing,
packaging etc. moves to adapt.
・Unexpected entrants - i.e. Nvidia
(computer parts) entering automotive
industry with autonomous vehicle.
“The Innovator’s Dilemma” by
Disruption sequence and entry barrier from the start
Crab (edible part)
Price parity reached by unit prices, “disruption” occurs accordingly
(As all products would be based on the same technology, entry from the middle i.e. tuna may prove difficult.)
Beef consumer prices (2019)
Possibilities after price parity
Required capital is big
Required capital is small
How much capital is
needed for new
How much do you need to launch a business?
“It is customary to to consider the cost of the plant as varying
by about the 0.6th power” (New Scientist vol.17, No.326 p355)
CA = The construction cost of Plant A
CB = The construction cost of comparable Plant B at different capacity
SA = The capacity of Plant A
SB = The capacity of Plant B
The upfront investment
appears relatively large,
hinting a community-
Scale Cost Cost per kg meat
100kg/mon. $0.3M $33
1t/mon. $1.2M $13
10t/mon. $4.8M $5
100t/mon. $19M $2
1000t/mon. $75M $0.8
Q: “What is the minimum
efficient scale (MES) of
(Estimated by IntegriCulture Inc. / 2017)
0.6th power rule & 7-year depreciation
“Required capital is big” high-MES scenario
・2 to 3 cell-ag companies per country (like automotive industries)
・High minimum efficient scale (MES) - economy of scale is everything
・Foxconn-style “cell culture foundries” is possible
↑Transport of amino acids to
cell-ag plant with big tankers
←Littoral petrochemical plants are
replaced by cell-ag plants
・Economy of scale is not everything - room for other competitive edges
・Equipments and ingredients are commodities, like restaurant industry
・Open source cultured meat, nonproprietary recipe, DIY cell culture vats
“Required capital is small” low-MES scenario
Scenario in between（i.e. Beer industry）
Ohwaki Engineering CO.From hp of Sapporo Beer
・Local and private brewery brands alongside big brands
・Big brands leverage on the economies of scale
・Small brands target local and niche markets
・The required capital for market entry generally decreases with advancing
technology (i.e. AI & automotive), and the scene eventually shift to Scenario 3?
PicoBrew : Beer brewing machine for home-use
Mass brand companies Local brewery Home brewery
・The minimum efficient scale
at the price parity determines
・Actions of animal welfare
organizations and regions
like Singapore would hint the
nearing price parity.
・Other cell-ag (fur, timber,
seafood etc.) products may
follow the same path.
Cell culture &
How would cell-ag enter mainstream?
Minimum efficient scale (Required size of capital for market entry)
scenario Reach PP
・“DIY meat” allows room
for competition other than
scale and price, pushing
the balance to the right.
in DIY meat acts as a tidal
force pushing industry
decisions to the right.
Cell culture &
“DIY meat” may shift the balance
Minimum efficient scale
Farmers launching brands in democratized cell-ag
・Local farmers and town butchers
can develop their own cell-based
・Hobbyists can come up with unique
meat recipe and brands.
・Bioreactors in backyard, fewer
cows that are better looked after
Farmers sell meat ($70/kg), not cow ($15/kg)
Farmers may sell or license cells
Cows are the product Cell or meat is the product
Traditional farmscape Cell-ag farmscape
The Cell-Ag Farmscape