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The 2014 Trends Sh*t List


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Another year has passed, and that means another look back at our own predictions on the trends that shaped our industry. Take a look at our 2014 report card and our thoughts on what's to come this year in the areas of shopping, media, technology, and consumer trends.

Published in: Marketing, Lifestyle
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The 2014 Trends Sh*t List

  1. 1. 22squared © 2014. All Rights Reserved.
  2. 2. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 “I love this time of year! Because only at the end of the year can we see with the hindsight of 20/20 vision. It’s a chance to reflect and take an honest and constructively critical look back at the trends we predicted would shape 2014. It’s like bringing home our report card from school...we’re a little nervous, but hopeful that we did well. I only wish the Grandma of Advertising would give us a dollar for every A. Whatever our grades, this assessment helps us shape our predictions for 2015 and guides our efforts to connect with consumers on behalf of our brands. We hope it can guide some of your efforts as well. Never before have I felt so close to the sci-fi movies I love so much. Fantasy is quickly becoming reality. And while we don’t have retinal scanners or hyper-drives, many of the technologies featured in those iconic films are altering our reality both as consumers and as marketers. We work in an exciting era. In 2014, technology has started to seamlessly meld with the flow of our lives. Meaning that it enables how we live and does so in a purposeful and smooth way. And that will only increase in the years to come. Brands have to enable that flow instead of disturbing it. These technological advances aren’t a license to annoy or creep people out. They’re a golden opportunity to enhance peoples’ lives on a personal level and to enable the life they want to live. We hope these trends, and our harsh grading of them, will help you think differently about the marketing challenges that lie ahead of you.” THE 2014 SH*T LIST Brandon Murphy Chief Strategy Officer
  3. 3. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 CONSUMER TRENDS Q&A with John Stapleton, Chief Creative Director Q: Which of this year’s Consumer Trends are most interesting to you? A: The Health one. I think people will start to use data in everyday life to their advantage. I’m in good health - I get checked up - so don’t lump me in with others. Insurance companies want your data, and being healthier means you can benefit in other ways. For example, people could make a deal to hand over all of their information for cheaper insurance. Or a free phone. That’s fascinating. ... We might even get healthier. Q: Do you think brands Doing Good is table stakes? A: Yes. Since people can see everything a brand is doing, that transparency - companies can’t hide. Consumers see it at a much larger scale and can beat the brand to death with it. Some brands may donate a pair of shoes, then other brands try to change society. That’s bigger than Doing Good, it’s a brand purpose. It’s identifying with their shoppers’ interests ... it’s always been there, but what’s different now is that very large brands are taking that risk - to advertise it was unheard of. Because of the conversation online, they know it’ll get talked about, way more than a product demo. The old way of advertising won’t work in social. Q: What’s coming in the future? A: We hear a lot about programmatic buying and analytics - what about “Programmatic creative”? With the power of video, tech, and code, we’ll see more creative that’s programmatic. For example, the video game Madden NFL works with Google so you can trash talk your friends as a play happens, in real time. Inside the game, you can instantly create an animated GIF and send it to your friend. That could scale into broadcast. An ad in a broadcast game could feature a play that just happened, in the creative. That’s badass. And it’s where we’re headed. Q: What’s the difference in tomorrow’s consumer? The generation after Millennials? A: Take a 14-year old girl, she’s on Instagram, Snapchat, Kick, every channel she can be on. Skype is a huge channel. It’s amazing how comfortable they are harnessing video content. They’re comfortable having friends all over the world. Connected all the time, video all the time, whether gaming or just talking. Comfort of seeing their own face on a camera is unbelievable. They’ve created an incredible bond there because they see them all the time. ... So, how can a brand create that much constant attention from someone?
  4. 4. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: CONSUMER What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Doing well by doing good will now be expected in this enlightened age, and will lose its power to differentiate. Purpose will run its course, and there will be more attention on those not doing good than those doing it. Eco-friendly will have to have it all – no sacrifices on style or performance.” What happened in 2014 A number of brands made big bets on doing good this year. Target created its “Made to Matter” consortium of brands, promoting Method, Annie’s, Kashi, et al. CVS put its money where its lungs are by ceasing to sell tobacco products; people noticed, applauded, and began to live healthier. Always took up the young women’s self-esteem cause with their #LikeAGirl campaign, with over 53 million online video views of a 3+ minute message. General Mills’ brands Betty Crocker and Cheerios reclaimed their relevance by supporting family and equality. Sure, it’s not new. But brands that do good can still break through. What it means for 2015 Huge categories are ripe for disruption by doing good. We’ll see brands attempt to better their names in some less-loved categories like cellular service, airlines, and banking. DOING GOOD BECOMES TABLE STAKES
  5. 5. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: CONSUMER What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Social media reach and influence will create a culture of everyday fashionistas, all starting microtrends of their own. With such variety and democracy of influence, we’ll see more diversity in fashion trends, from multicultural looks to youth subcultures.” What happened in 2014 Social channels contributed to 2014 fashion in a big way. Image sharing platforms evolved as a way to curate and express your style. 49% of Pinterest users say they use them in lieu of catalogs, with fashion pins reaching 5 million a day (from 2 million in 2013). YouTube birthed its own generation of fashion experts, with little resemblance to those you’d see on NY Fashion Week. From Haulers to Sneakerheads, we looked to micro-influencers for what’s hot and not, and the diversity in opinion was real. After gaining YouTube fame for her fashion videos, teen vlogger Bethany Mota launched a clothing line at Aeropostale, judged Project Runway, released a pop single and appeared on Dancing with the Stars. Polyvore and StitchFix offer personalized fashion platforms. And fashion brands took to micro-influencers and co-created blog content to get in on the social action. What it means for 2015 Everyday influencers are fragmenting fashion trends, and booming blog communities are bringing niche trends to the masses. Reaching consumers in this category will take smart targeting and an authentic voice that adds to the diversity of content they’re seeking. DIVERSIFIED FASHION
  6. 6. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: CONSUMER What we predicted in Dec 2013 “We won’t see a token African American or Hispanic cast member anymore. ‘Multicultural’ communications will feel more like ‘General Market’ communications and vice versa, because everyone is seeing everything. Instead of designated Spanish-language budgets, we’ll see a shift toward bicultural, integrated communications.” What happened in 2014 Total Market, Transculturalism, Cross-Cultural name it, we saw it. Coca-Cola and Cheerios kicked off the year with Super Bowl commercials featuring multicultural casts. Then AT&T debuted their “Mobile Movement” campaign, featuring young Latinos discussing how they live across two cultures and languages. Corona, Hyundai, Dish Network, and McDonald’s added their voices to the mix during the World Cup, utilizing universal messages that appealed to both “gen pop” and Hispanics. Bicultural channels are also popping up. Fusion, the English-language cable channel from ABC News and Univision, expanded its presence with short-form news videos on Instagram and Vine. Flipboard launched a new U.S. Latina Content Guide with 20% of the content in English. What it means for 2015 Multicultural will go mainstream. Diverse casts and culturally relevant messaging will become the expectation, and brands who don’t follow suit will lose fans. THE EXPANSION OF “TOTAL MARKET”
  7. 7. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: CONSUMER What we predicted in Dec 2013 “The adoption curve will shift as early adopters become more cynical about technology and app downloads. (Google Glass, anyone?) People won’t keep falling for ‘tech that will change your life.’ Informed adopters will wait to see the value and proof that it’s a better product, not just a shiny object.” What happened in 2014 Actually, there were more early adopters, and they were more informed. Cultural cachet had more Americans camping out for the new iPhone, purchasing designer labels in flash sales, and participating in Kickstarter campaigns that raise millions overnight -- all of which provide instant tangible benefit. While 56% of US adults now self-identify as “early adopters” among new products or services, utility remains at the heart of those that catch on. What it means for 2015 As early adoption becomes more common, more people will demand simple, practical, useful technology within reach. The lines between early adopters and informed adopters will continue to fade. Tech news is now mainstream, and it focuses on utility. INFORMED VS. EARLY ADOPTERS
  8. 8. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: CONSUMER What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Aided by wearable technology, boutique fitness that’s custom fit to any lifestyle, and healthier influences at work and school, people will place more importance on health and the obesity epidemic will reverse. Diets and fitness programs will get more niche-y, user-controlled, and bespoke.” What happened in 2014 Obesity epidemic has not reversed (more plateaued), but the trend in making fitness cool and mainstream definitely picked up momentum in 2014. The athletic trend in fashion was more apparent than ever. Designer Tory Burch created “Tory Burch for FitBit” to “transform your tracker into a super chic accessory.” 2014 also saw the rise of ultra-niche-y wearables that fit more specific users and lifestyles, such as cyclers, weightlifters, or even just someone who slouches. From whispering in your ear to matching your tracker with your wardrobe, new technologies are making it even easier for people to be motivated to get healthy because it’s getting more and more customized. What it means for 2015 As healthcare and health overall continue to be top of mind in this country, we will see not only continued emergence of new technologies that combine both function and fashion but increased acceptance of fitness across a diverse range of industries. Athleticism will transcend the sports category. CUSTOM HEALTH
  9. 9. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 SHOPPING TRENDS Q&A with Saya Heathco, Planning Director Q:What’scatchingyourattentioninthisyear’sshoppingtrends? A:Personally,themobilewalletisexciting.Ishoponline,usetheDunkin’app,dopersonalshoppingonline.I carrymyphonewithacaseandaflop-outpocketforcreditcards.I’mreadyforcreditcardstogoaway. We’ll hitaninflectionpointwhereyou’vegottobeinoroutonthis.Foodandbeveragehasledthechargeformass traction.Butluxurypurchases,andothereverydaypurchases,Idon’tthinkwe’reseeingityet. Q:What’skeepingbrandsfromwidespreadmobilepayments? A:There’saconsumertrustissue.Whenourmoneyandbankaccountsareinvolvedthere’sanotherlevelof scrutiny.Ifmassretailerscan’ttrustit,canI?Peoplearewaitingfortheirfriendstoadoptandtryitfirst.Also compatibilityissues-sharingdifferentphonesandbankaccountsinasinglehousehold.Gottasolvethat. Q:Whataboutourtrendthatgotthe“F”grade? A:Theprint-at-hometrendseemedsocool-youcanimaginetheapplications.ButI’mnotgoingtoput anotherdeviceinmyhomeuntilIseemoreutility.By2017peoplewillbecarrying5devices,average. DoIreallywanttoaddinanotherapplianceinmyhome-forwhat?Idolikethecafespoppingupforpeople totryit. Q:Howdoesallofthisaffectthecustomerjourney? A:Theshoppinglandscapehaspermanentlychanged,andwon’tsettledownanytimesoon.It’sanexciting timeforus.Thereisnofunnelthatleadstooneplace-peopleshopatanytime,onanydevice.Sowhatrole doesthestoreplay?Itworksgreatwhenit’sanexperientialtouchpoint.Fortheexperience.Amazonis growing,soeveryoneelsehastobecomemorenimble.Weneedtolearnfromothercategories:howare peoplebuyingdifferently,andwhenwillthatbehaviorhitmycategory?
  10. 10. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: SHOPPING What we predicted in Dec 2013 “We’ll see mass adoption of a mobile wallet solution begin to replace credit cards and physical wallets. NFC technology will enable it, and apps like Coin will fuel it. Consumers will love it because they can aggregate their accounts and travel lighter. Businesses that don’t accept mobile payments will be avoided.” What happened in 2014 As fast as mobile payment adoption has grown, it hasn’t nearly peaked. 40% of North Americans use mobile payments, up from 16% two years ago. But one banking study estimates M-payments to grow by another 60% in 2015. Starbucks processes over 7 million transactions per week, and CEO Howard Shultz says, “Someday we won’t carry cash.” Even though Apple Pay had one million people sign up in its first three days with launch support from most major banks and credit brands, some retailers (like Walmart, GAP, and CVS) have shunned Apple Pay; they might be eyeing the Starbucks model instead. What it means for 2015 Many retailers will follow Starbucks’ lead with their own payment app. But never underestimate Apple. Or Google. Or the startup ecosystem (see Moven and Simple, two debit card apps). A universal payment option might catch Starbucks yet. MOBILE WALLET, VIRTUAL MONEY
  11. 11. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: SHOPPING What we predicted in Dec 2013 “iBeacon and Bluetooth technologies will mean consumers can buy things anywhere: directly from their phones, Pinterest, Facebook, YouTube, their TVs, etc. Even runways (take a photo of the model, buy the dress). The world is a store and it’s always open.” What happened in 2014 Twitter launched a test that will let consumers purchase products directly in their feeds from brands, artists and non-profit organizations. Startups such as Soldsie and Chirpify have made it easier for brands and artists to sell products on Facebook and Instagram using keywords. Users can purchase a product instantly by commenting “buy” or “sold” on the product post. The implementation of iBeacon and Bluetooth technologies in store has created a more interactive shopping experience for some consumers. Macy’s, MLB and Virgin Atlantic are trying iBeacon - still mostly on location. PayPal announced that it was working on its own beacon model that will let consumers see information, discounts and deals, and also make payments via their mobile devices instantly. To date, social media is the most promising way for people to shop “free range.” What it means for 2015 The earliest wins for out-of-store transactions could be via shoppable content on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and some shoppable digital content offering the option to buy instantaneously. Their eyeballs are already there, wherever they may be. BUY NOW, PAY NOW
  12. 12. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: SHOPPING What we predicted in Dec 2013 “As 3D printers get cheaper, more people will have them in their homes and companies will start selling accessible designs to print-at-home, minimizing time and money spent going to a store to buy the product. If someone needs a screwdriver for very limited use, they will be able to just print it at home, use it, and forget about it until next time.” What happened in 2014 Not even close. 3D printing did gain momentum this year with the rise of several 3D-printing cafes (like Tokyo's FabCafe and London’s MakerCafe) that let “makers” experiment with the technology in creative social environments. Customization has been the leading benefit from global companies who are now printing products like headphones, toys, and medical devices (like hearing aids and prosthetics). So far, it’s a novelty or B-2-B. What it means for 2015 We expect to see cheaper, smaller, and faster 3D printers. Kickstarter campaigns and big-name manufacturers like HP have made more consumer-friendly 3D printers, so consumer demand may increase a bit. But quality of outputs will be scrutinized. It may never disrupt industries like we thought. THE RISE OF PRINT-AT-HOME MERCHANDISE
  13. 13. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: SHOPPING What we predicted in Dec 2013 “With Amazon entering every category and raising consumer expectations for convenience, we’ll see a huge panic with brick and mortar stores. The actual purchasing will be done through digital channels. All stores won’t need to close but rather shrink and adapt: adding local delivery, juggling their inventory to cater to their neighborhoods, or cutting inventory down to items that require immediacy (food, medicine, hardware). Stores don’t have to be this big anymore.” What happened in 2014 The explosive growth of online and mobile shopping continued to take a toll on traditional brick-and-mortar retail locations in 2014. Downsizing and closing of physical retail stores continued. By the end of 2014, Target will have closed as many stores as it opened last year in addition to the newly rolled-out TargetExpress locations. Walmart continues to open Walmart Express and Starbucks announced it also will open express-style stores. Major store closings continued by Sears and JCPenney. Amazon’s new physical locations continue to emphasize the need for traditional retailers to quickly adapt to the changes in inventory and convenience. What it means for 2015 New tracking technologies allow retailers to analyze in-store behavior the same way we have been able to monitor online shopping. This will enable brick-and-mortar stores to evolve and better adapt to changes in behavior and needs. Customer experiences can only be offered in tangible, offline locations. “You can’t have a salad and a glass of wine online.” BRICK AND MORTAR EVOLUTION
  14. 14. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: SHOPPING What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Brick and mortar stores will start utilizing digital tactics to deepen engagement with consumers. As soon as consumers walk through the front doors, stores will be able to ID each person via facial recognition or mobile phones. Reverse targeting will come into play – stores will showcase items based on shoppers’ online browsing. Traditional, brand-centric signage and displays will be replaced by unique immersive digital experiences.” What happened in 2014 Retailers and brands are delivering content and engagement through digital installations, from LED panels to gesture-based software, and through customers’ own mobile screens. Burberry has created its own “digical” world with digital mirrors in-store that allow consumers to step into a fashion runway as they’re sashaying in the designer label’s attire. Nike’s Fuel Station has floor-to- ceiling LCD motion-sensing walls where customers can see digitized reflections of themselves while donning their sportsgear. Interactive touchscreens provide animated product information. Sephora has developed its mobile app to act as a personal shopping assistant for customers to use as they navigate through the store to find the best matched products. These digital engagements give customers unique in-store experiences that go beyond showrooming and offer meaningful interactions that a computer screen can’t provide. What it means for 2015 More advanced technology such as facial recognition, RFID tagging and beacon applications is still being developed, but at a slower pace due to barriers such as consumer privacy laws and costs. But we will see the trend of digitizing retail continue into 2015. IN-STORE & DIGITAL SHOPPING COLLIDE
  15. 15. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: SHOPPING What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Online grocery shopping will take off in packaged goods, but consumers still want to pick their own produce. So, shoppers will take a hybrid approach, where delivery will augment the grocery trip. Programs like Blue Apron, Peach Dish and Graze will deliver convenience without sacrificing healthy food habits or freshness.” What happened in 2014 Everyone is trying to get a piece of the online grocery shopping pie. Walmart, Whole Foods, Amazon, Instacart, Peapod, FreshDirect, and Plated joined the fray. (Even the United States Postal Service is playing a role after agreeing to deliver groceries for Amazon in a two-year market test.) While online grocery spending currently only accounts for 3-4% of all grocery purchases (about $23 billion in 2014), it’s grown more than 20% since last year, and is poised to quadruple by 2019. What it means for 2015 Test markets will expand beyond big cities, trial purchases will become habits, and comfort with new shopping methods will increase. Smaller players who are late to the game will lose out to more established names. HYBRID GROCERY SHOPPING
  16. 16. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 MEDIA TRENDS Q&A with Krista Lang, SVP Executive Media Director Q: What’s the exciting part of this year’s Media Trends? A: Targeting more granularly is big. The ability to do programmatic buying lets us find the right person, not just a big lump of people ... in real time. Convergence of media buying practices is big. Broadcast buyers are using more automation to gather data inputs quickly. The scale still doesn’t quite exist, but we can target much better in TV now. We can take learnings from digital behaviors and apply them to broadcast buying. Q: What do we need most from our media outlets and partners now? A: I think we’re learning what the technical capabilities of our partners are, and we can do more of it internally - not the software, but the skill sets. We can move from needing a managed service from a partner, to more of a self-service “dashboard” model with that same partner, for example. Real time content, we’ve done it more this year. It’s not just a vendor play anymore. Theoretically, we’re trying to use information from social and digital to inform our broadcast buys - applying insights. It’s baby steps. The TV industry can’t change as fast as we’d like, but we’re getting better all the time. Q: Which categories are leading marketing innovation? A: The auto industry spends the most, so they can test the most, and learn quickly. They’re on TV 365 days a year, so they can max out their broadcast presence and then test and learn in digital and social. On the flip side, brands that don’t have a lot of money are forced to play nimbly - challenger brands have to find new ways to compete, it’s David and Goliath. So both ends of the spectrum are doing it well. It’s also about being creative, getting our creative department to figure out new ways to use media platforms - our integration leads to innovation. Q: How has the Datalogix+Facebook partnership changed things? A: Datalogix in Facebook helps a lot, it’s the true marriage of offline and online. Google and Facebook’s ability to follow a customer throughout digital journey, and take out people’s “self-proclaimed interests” as the only targeting option. Shopping data, loyalty card, all that data makes the digital targeting way more accurate. Regression analysis and predictive modeling make it even better. It’s not a silver bullet - you can’t predict how people will respond to a campaign - the creative matters a ton. We’ve gone from a “put it out and see if it works,” to lots of test, measure, and learn.
  17. 17. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: MEDIA What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Social media grew as a relationship graph, assuming that you’re most interested in what your friends and family are interested in. In 2014, social media (Facebook in particular) will return to the interest graph, assuming that strangers who like what you like are better predictors of new things you’ll like than your friends.” What happened in 2014 The old assumption that people who like each other like the same things, is over. “Sponsored stories” are dying (e.g., “Your friend likes this brand” in the side rail). Paid targeting is now based on data way beyond self-declared FB interests, to online and offline behaviors. Personal ID info with Axion, Epsilon, and Datalogix adds far more demographic and behavioral data points. Big brands can now batch in their customer database info, and connect to the data house information to find their customers on Facebook (and/or lookalikes). FB’s edgerank algorithm fills your newsfeed with content based on your behaviors, not necessarily your relationships. And Twitter, Instagram, and Pinterest aren’t built around relationships nearly as much. What it means for 2015 Relationships will always be a part of the social media advantage, but they’re no longer the core strength. Facebook Custom Audiences will get more use; it ties people’s web behavior to serving them targeted content. Hyper-targeting will become the norm. Interest- and behavior-based targeting will happen on all social platforms. SOCIAL RETURNS TO THE INTEREST GRAPH
  18. 18. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: MEDIA What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Sponsored content will really take off. As a result, we won’t consume “news” as much as we do “content.” The native advertising epidemic will be welcomed as we rely more on informative content wrapped around our news. Sponsored posts won’t turn us away just because advertisers paid for them - we’ll value them more than banner ads because they offer us more utility, context, or laughs.“ What happened in Dec 2014 It’s safe to say that native advertising went mainstream this year, representing digital advertising’s maturation. Repurposing ads as informative content drove revenue gains of up to 50% in 2014 for news publications like the New York Times and Washington Post, while new- media organizations like LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter reaped much higher benefits as paid and sponsored posts filled the feed. A recent LinkedIn survey revealed that 70% of us now want to learn about products through content rather than through traditional advertising. What it means for 2015: As native advertising grows in nearly every media property, we’ll see brands and media companies finessing their editorial content strategies for integration and contextual relevance. Sponsored content will extend to print and other channels as well, which both the New York Times and the Washington Post already kicked off at the end of 2014. DIGITAL EDU-TAIN-NEWS
  19. 19. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: MEDIA What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Are digital KPIs accurate? Which KPIs best measure success? Do certain KPIs drive a false experience? Digital channels give us a ton of data, but which measures are most insightful and actionable? Finding the right KPIs to gauge success will continue to be a challenge.” What happened in 2014 Marketers and businesses are still learning how to pick and choose from all the digital data that’s available and how selecting the right KPIs and analytics can transform that data into measures of success. (Hint: start with key business objectives.) Currently there is too much emphasis on awareness KPIs. The number of page views and visits can only take you so far – what is more insightful is understanding what content was read or what kind of products were purchased. One example of a new insight on consumer behavior is how digital drives not only ecommerce but also in- store purchases. How will this affect KPIs such as % of sales from digital advertising? What it means for 2015 Expect continuous trial-and-error for marketers and businesses. The key is to quickly adapt to relevant changes that bring new data into consideration, such as new technology or consumer behavior. Such insights will push marketers and analysts to constantly question existing KPIs and potentially create new ones. DIGITAL KPIs GET SCRUTINIZED
  20. 20. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: MEDIA What we predicted in Dec 2013 “With the advancement of digital targeting and measurement has come a demand for broadcast to follow suit. Nielsen set-top boxes and viewing diaries will be a thing of the past, as more digital approaches to data-collection emerge. Programmatic buying will be the norm through addressable TV. With broadcast’s reach and digital’s smarts, we’ll see TV advertising pulling from the best of both worlds.” What happened in 2014 Media definitely made strides in this direction in 2014, but the change has been gradual. Set-top data is still a key driver for advertising decisions. Instead of disappearing, Nielsen upped its game, complementing traditional with digital methods (with Adobe and Videology). Meanwhile, RenTrak grew as a major competitor in cross-platform ratings. Just 8% of buyers used programmatic for TV this year, accounting for 1% of TV ad spend. This is due in part to the limited availability of top quality programming through these buys (so far). What it means for 2015 Video is now a platform-agnostic medium, and the lines between broadcast and digital TV are blurring. As consumers crave relevance across devices, addressable campaigns and programmatic buys will be increasingly important to TV’s success. And with more targeted TV campaigns will also come an increased ability to measure it. CONVERGENCE OF MEDIA BUYING (BEST OF BOTH WORLDS)
  21. 21. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: MEDIA What we predicted in Dec 2013 “‘Total marketing’ will be the buzzword in 2014, and it means talking to everyone in society rather than the vaguely termed ‘general market.’ The Cheerios ad with a multi-racial couple shouldn’t be news and we need more LGBT offerings. This is real life. So, we’ll need to understand consumer group makeup better and message against what’s accepted and real – because that’s the more diverse America we live in today. Depictions of situations that aren’t mass will become ok. There will be fewer niche shops . We will start to move from advertising that’s still in the ’60s with casting its customers to things becoming more real.” What happened in 2014 Media targeting got more digital, behavioral, and measurable, so yes, it more accurately represents “real life.” A click doesn’t care if you’re white, gay, short, or ambidextrous. This more reality-based advertising also showed up in creative. More and more companies openly supported gay marriage, and stances on societal issues are making their way into ads. With General Mills and Coke leading the way, companies are getting more comfortable in capturing that “total market” strategy. The landscape of ad agencies is changing as well to accommodate this approach, with traditional shops expanding their multicultural chops. What it means for 2015 Consumers won’t be seen in isolation from each other based on traditional demographics. As we take more of a current approach to targeting, a richer view of society will be reflected that could be considered “post-demographic.” TARGETING GETS CURRENT
  22. 22. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Q&A with Chris Tuff, EVP Director of Emerging Media Q: A few years ago, some dismissed social media as a “trend.” Today? A: Everything digital is social, and everything social is digital. Social has grown up. Distributing video content, whether it’s a Super Bowl spot, or concepted for the feed. It’s THE reach vehicle, with FB leading the charge. As a delivery platform, one that breaks through in mobile. Q: Which trends do you think we got right? A: The utility apps - where are we getting the most notifications on your phone? From the social apps (utility) ... so yes, we got that one right. For wearables, we’re not there yet. Nike Fuelband - Nike got out of the game, because everything is moving to the mobile phone. Connected Devices, absolutely. Nest, appliances, controlling our stuff via mobile, DropCam. ... Real-time personalization isn’t quite there yet - the news feed is the best we have, and they’re still tweaking the algorithm. The broken TV UX experience is the worst, so frustrating. And in retail, we’re not there. Q: Are you addicted to your phone? A: The other day my wife and I paused a TV show because we were both on our phones - for a half hour! So, how can brands make that a great experience? Twitter creating the backchannel for live TV was a great first step. We need to accommodate the distracted viewer. Oh, and I got an iPhone 6 in the first week.
  23. 23. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Q&A with Matt Silliman, VP Director of Integrated Production Q:Whattrendpiquedyourinteresthere? A:Utilityinapps.Themoreutility,themoreyou’regonnauseit.Wedon’thaveretailappsthatweuseeveryday. Whenwedo,hopefullythere’saloyaltyprogrambuiltinforsavings,akautility.LiketheStarbucksapp-theUI wasimprovedthisyear,theloyaltyprogramwasimproved.Andtheir“otherstuff”category,they’rean influencerwithfreemusic,freeappdownloads,ontheforefrontofwhat’strending.It’sanotherrealreasonfor metousethatapp.It’sawesome.Otherappsdiedafierydeath.TakeFacebook’s(whatwasitcalled?)Slingshot. ItwaslikeSnapchat,whereyoucouldslingsmallvideostofriends.Itdiedbecausetheutilitywasn’tthere. Q:Talktomeaboutphonesandsuch. A:PeoplestilllovetheiPhone,butthelargersizeisn’ttakingoffasmuch;there’ssuchathingastoobig.It’snice towatchvideoon,buthardertouseotherthings.Smartwatchesareboughtbyultra-hipandultra-geeky;nota lotofcrossovertomassappealyet.Ithasn’tcaughton.They’reexpensive. Q:Howhasproductionchanged? A:Contentisstillking.Flashbannersarenotperformingwell,sometimeshurtingbrandsentiment.Butwith shortorlongorepisodicvideo,orstunts,somebrand-centric,somelessso-we’veblownthedoorsopen,and it’sworking.Withinfluencerstoo-they’respecialists;theygeneratesomuchbuzz,andthere’spassionaround whatthey’recreating.Weusedtohireadirectortocraftit,they’dfollowourboards.Now,aninfluencerwillsee ourideaandthey’llchangeittosuittheaudiencethey’vebuilt,theaudiencetheyknowandlove.It’sanew worldforproduction.
  24. 24. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: TECHNOLOGY What we predicted in Dec 2013 “As smartphones get smarter, apps will get simpler and more purposeful. We won’t fill our screens with anything that doesn’t make life easier and fit seamlessly into our distracted lifestyles. Brands will be forced to adapt, providing utility apps instead of modified web experiences.” What happened in 2014 Single-use apps were a huge success in 2014. From messaging apps like Yo, to retail apps like Cartwheel. Apps focused on simplicity, utility and, in some cases, minimalism. The result was quick, easy adoption, and a shift away from do-it-all applications. Facebook has been slowly unbundling its app features into single-use apps, beginning with Messenger, and most recently a Groups app. Other tech giants like Google, Instagram, LinkedIn and Foursquare have shown similar strategies. What it means for 2015 Utility is an expectation for mobile attention.* 80% of apps are deleted after their first use; apps have to show consumers what they can do. When it comes to app engagement, brands may be best served by doing one thing and doing it well. UTILITY APPS WIN * exception: games
  25. 25. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: TECHNOLOGY What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Wearable technology will become smarter, more predictive, and more integrated with the rest of our digitized lives. Once a device is accepted, it will connect with our phone apps, our wallets, and maybe even our cars. They’ll help us be more productive, more healthy, and more social.” What happened in 2014 Google Glass was an awkward novelty. Sure, 20% of Americans currently own a wearable device - the majority of usage and innovation to this point have been focused on step-counting and sleep- tracking. However, two late-in-the-year updates give us hope. First: the new Microsoft Band (powered by Microsoft Health) not only tracks your movement, heart rate, and sleep patterns, but it also previews emails, manages events, and provides updates. The band was released on October 30th and has repeatedly sold out. Second: Apple announced the release of their Apple Watch, available in early 2015. This watch has many of the same features as an iPhone (email, text, phone, maps, music, etc.), plus Apple Pay and the functionality of a fitness tracker. What it means for 2015 While the excitement for wearables is high, so is the skepticism. Mass adoption will hinge on reactions and reviews from early adopters. WEARABLES FIND THEIR PURPOSE
  26. 26. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: TECHNOLOGY What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Eventually all of our devices will be synced, exchanging relevant information from one device to another instantly. Our smartphones will be the remote control of it all. In our homes, at the office, gym, and beyond. We’ll see Google lead the charge in creating the latest and greatest of all things connected.” What happened in 2014 The connected device movement has picked up momentum: 90% of all US households have 3 or more connected devices, and about half have 5 or more. It’s gone beyond the traditional bounds of smartphones, TVs and tablets, to wireless lighting (Philips Hue) to programmable thermostats (Nest). We can even toss our metal keys for keyless door locks (August) that also allow for virtual key- sharing. Cars are becoming more connected – Volvo has partnered with Ericsson to design Sensus, their new infotainment system allowing cars to communicate not just with cloud services (i.e., Pandora, Google Earth) but with other cars and road infrastructure. Samsung Flow and Apple Continuity are two device handoff features that will let you begin an activity on one device and move it to another seamlessly. Connected devices now run the gamut of lifestyle, health care and entertainment. What it means for 2015 Analysts project that there will be 4.9 billion connected devices in the market by the end of 2015, and 25 billion by 2020. Looking ahead, the rule of thumb will be “anything that can be connected, will be connected.” And Google won’t be the only innovator in the market. Our lives will be optimized while companies will have access to the data that we generate. Security, privacy and data sharing may be hurdles to overcome. CONNECTED DEVICES
  27. 27. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: TECHNOLOGY What we predicted in Dec 2013 “We’ll see a lot more devices working to anticipate human behavior at a split-second’s notice. Restaurants will have apps that allow us to order and pick up food instantaneously, car dealerships will know what rental car to give us before we drive up, and our homes will know exactly when to turn the lights off. Connected devices will react to our location, behavior, time of day and thousands of other inputs to improve our lives on the fly.” What happened in 2014 2014 kicked off with an inescapable focus on the “Internet of Things.” Apple’s iBeacon personalized consumer retail experiences via smartphone sensors, Google Nest made strides towards perfecting the “Smart Home” with learning thermostats and smoke alarms, and car manufacturers like Ford and Audi put predictive self-parking capabilities in their newest models as others applied early elements of connected devices to vehicles. But still, the technology has yet to be perfected (and priced right) for mass appeal. What it means for 2015 We can reasonably expect that future smart devices will continue to impact technological growth in 2015 across multiple business, commerce and consumer sectors as they transcend out of infancy towards predictive perfection. New applications that know what the consumer wants and needs before the consumer does are the wave of the future as we continue to make better sense of Big Data. We also expect to see a continuing evolution for retail loyalty programs, which will likely spring into action with more personalized and responsive rewards long before directly pushing consumers to the cash register. REAL-TIME PERSONALIZATION
  28. 28. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: TECHNOLOGY What we predicted in Dec 2013 “We’ll see more seamless cross-screen experiences. Computers will run mobile apps, and mobile devices will provide Office and iWork solutions. With nothing differentiating devices except form, consumers and businesses will begin phasing out laptops and desktops in favor of do-it-all tablets.” What happened in 2014 Multi-screen behavior has grown to a critical mass, causing app developers to consider cross-screen formats and capabilities. But the complexity of working across Apple, Android and PC devices is too much for content producers to solve. Mobile productivity is limited for Office and iWork capabilities, and computers have been slow to incorporate apps and touchscreen technology. The mid-year launch of Microsoft’s Surface Pro 3 was the closest we’ve seen to a true hybrid screen, boasting itself as “The tablet that can replace your laptop.” And while sales have been high, they have yet to reach iPad levels. What it means for 2015 As iPhones get bigger, laptops get smaller, and tablets try to play the field, we’ll continue to see this trend unfold. While a true phase-out may be unrealistic, tech companies will have to keep eliminating the barriers to cross-device usage, because that behavior is here to stay. SCREEN SHIFTS
  29. 29. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 HOW’D WE DO? TREND CATEGORY: TECHNOLOGY What we predicted in Dec 2013 “Apple will no longer be the indisputable leader in mobile devices, as competitors like Samsung and Android close in and consumer frustration with the iPhone mounts. The next iPhone version will be too similar to the previous version, increasing impatience. Barriers to switching will decrease, making it easier for Apple fans to jump ship.” What happened in 2014 Early in the year, the situation was looking somewhat bleak for Apple. The company was left off MIT’s Technology Review blog of the 50 smartest companies in the world, after placing third in 2013. Then an internal Apple document was released, revealing Apple’s concern over competitor hardware quality and advertising. But then they bounced back. In a big way. After sharing plans to launch not one but two new phones, Apple experienced record-breaking pre-orders for more than 4 million new phones. They expect to sell more than 71 million iPhones in Q4, an 82% increase over Q3. What it means for 2015 Samsung and Apple will continue to battle it out, but Apple isn’t going anywhere but up. With exciting launches in other areas (see “Wearables Find their Purpose”), consumers may be more willing to stick with the iLife. UNFETISHIZING THE IPHONE
  30. 30. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 In the course of un-earthing this year’s trends, a few topics emerged that were inspiring, but they weren’t trends. We decided to share them with you anyway. We hope these spark some valuable ideas for your brand. 1: The Designed Advantage Design is going to become the most important job in every company. (Check out the book: The Rise of the CDO - Chief Design Officer). The biggest fault is design with companies that under deliver. Cadillac CTS is the most highly rated car in performance, but it’s lowest in user reviews because you can’t even figure out how to turn the volume down on the stereo. Design is top priority for Yahoo this year. Design is why Steve Jobs was so far ahead, because he thought design-first. Companies can win by putting more effort into design. Boost design in your process. 2: Use Unconventional Skill Sets Look to the way agencies are staffing - hybrid roles, people with cross-functional skill sets. There will be agencies that innovate with assigning tasks differently, like assigning a media statistician a dual planning role. Or a digital producer role could merge with a digital planner role so that they can buy a more innovative brand activation, more native, more creative. Hybrid people can think outside their core capabilities. Cross-functional training makes people better, when they can understand the whole picture and have better ideas, understand what’s possible. 3: Brand Intel-sharing Maybe your competition doesn’t have to be. Brands could get an edge by working together if they can. It’s hard for a Google to collaborate with a Microsoft for learning, but easier for smaller brands that don’t force their customers into an either-or choice between them. Say, a small beverage company and a small snack company sharing intel, from key contacts to consumer insights. Or a sports apparel brand and a sport shoe brand working together to understand what customers are buying, what sports they’re into, then personalizing what they offer and when. If brands can find ways to work together to get smarter, or to personalize experiences, customers win. True co-promotion sharing data in a relevant way. BONUS: 8 WAYS TO INNOVATE IN 2015
  31. 31. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 BONUS: 8 WAYS TO INNOVATE IN 2015 4: SAG Revolution Content is king, so we've got to figure out a way to produce it affordably. One of the biggest pain points for major brands and agencies is SAG-AFTRA talent costs. Clients are demanding savings. The $10 million TV spot will become more rare as the smaller scrappier companies find other ways to product creative. The media landscape is expanding - there are so many ways to deliver content. Network TV used to be the best place to run a commercial, but that's changing. Brands are spending more online and talent costs are following that media shift. The industry keeps talking about a GRP model where the talent gets paid based on how many eyeballs see the commercials, but until that happens, expect to see brands and agencies take advantage of new experimental waivers established by the Unions, allowing for more flexible payments for user-generated and made-for-internet content. What happens in 2015 will likely affect what the industry bargains hard for in the 2016 Commercials Contract renegotiation.  Bottom line: re-think your rules of thumb for production-to-media spending ratios. 5: Use Real-time Data It’s getting better all the time. In terms of research it will become more and more rapid-fire. We need insights faster, so we’ll find new and innovative ways to get data as fast as possible. Real time research isn’t yet where it needs to be but many research companies are trying. It will more likely come from a new-school research vendor incrementally making its innovative platform more robust. 6: Re-invent a Specialty Whether it’s local activations, or direct response conversions, there seems to be an old school way of doing it, and a new school. The trick here is to deliver the strengths of both. Twitter and Facebook are investing in lower-funnel partners, focusing on conversion now (used to be more awareness). New media companies lack the old school Direct Response experience, but old school DR companies don’t work fast and connected and innovative enough. These are critical business needs, not going away, but ripe for better solutions.
  32. 32. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 BONUS: 8 WAYS TO INNOVATE IN 2015 7: Brands Will Team Up for Clout Beyond sharing intel, little brands can join hands and approach retail with a stronger case. There are category differences, of course; CPG and perishables often get awareness at shelf (price, promo, etc.) – tiny brands can’t build much “customer journey.” So look for ally brands in the aisle. Bigger brands can partner as well. Parity products can win with more channel partnerships; OceanSpray has already partnered with other brands, and Nestle has partnered with other brands as well to increase its media buying clout. 8: Don’t Let Data Make You Less Creative Data can help innovation, or hinder it. The things we can measure with Big Data will hijack the messaging and proactive storytelling brands are capable of. If your brands relies on data too much, you’ll tire of being reactive, and realize that responding to data is not enough. The brand could get bland. The human, feeling, predictive mind will need to find its place again, and that means staffing for creativity. The more we work with data, the less of a novelty it will be, and we can take it as one important input, not the rule of law. Get the data, then make a decision with your gut. If you can’t quantify/measure it, does that mean it’s not worth doing? No! It could end up being your Red Bull Stratos campaign. Talk about guts. And the corollary, be skeptical of data: it told McDonald's to launch a new product, “Mighty Wings.” Some common sense may have helped them think better.
  33. 33. 22squared © 2014. All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 OUR FINAL GRADE:
  34. 34. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 “As marketers, we’re trying to skate to where the puck will be. Beat the competition. Change the game. Predict, and deliver. But when we look at trends, are we looking for mere inspiration? A list of cool stuff that’s possible? (Then go back to our desks for some YOY comp planning?) No. But that’s what many trend reports offer. I don’t believe that’s enough. In this report, we are looking for shifts that are gaining scale. Ones we can act on. Ones that will pay off with decisions that show ROI. Yes, we’re noticing cool stuff, but then we’re measuring it however we can, with an eye toward practical action. It’s quite common to spot a “trend” that is inspiring, but not in any way practical. We have a thing for accountability, so for the second year in a row, we’re holding ourselves accountable for our predictions. Was it just buzz, or did it stick? Did we notice mere potential, or did it become reality? In December of 2013 we conducted about 30 stakeholder interviews among the brightest minds in our agency at every level. (Fun, brilliant conversations I wish you could have heard!) We started noticing themes. We grouped recurring topics, sized them up, debated them, wrote them down, and locked them in a vault for a year. Then at the end of 2014, we opened the vault, read what we had said with fresh eyes, and compared it to what had actually happened in those 12 months. We graded ourselves harshly; a C+ average. But in the process, I learned a few things. I learned that 12 months goes by really fast. That brands everywhere have a ton of guts. That I can feel smart and stupid at the same time. I hope you learned a thing or two as well. Here comes 2015. Don’t blink.” SO DID THE TRENDS TREND? David Yeend VP, Planning Director
  35. 35. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 Saya Heathco, Planning Director Krista Lang, SVP Executive Media Director Courtney McCalden, Brand Planner Julie Minchew, Senior Brand Planner Brandon Murphy, Chief Strategy Officer Kaitlyn Roche, Junior Brand Planner Matt Silliman, VP Director of Integrated Production Kiersten Smith, Planning Associate John Stapleton, Chief Creative Director Elvira Tran, Planner and Research Analyst Chris Tuff, EVP Director of Emerging Technology David Yeend, VP Planning Director CONTRIBUTORS
  36. 36. 22squared © 2014, All Rights Reserved. DECEMBER 2014 REFERENCES: DOING GOOD BECOMES TABLE STAKES business Target Brands that do Good ... letting_your_mission_drive_success_lessons_ben_j Always ... era/ DIVERSIFIED FASHION suggestions/ THE EXPANSION OF “TOTAL MARKET” Portada Online, 2014: market/ AdAge, March 2014: Capital New York, May 2014: guardian-visual-journalist-social-video-manager-digital-te Adweek, June 2014: general-market-ads-158448 AdAge, July 2014: INFORMED VS. EARLY ADOPTERS CUSTOM HEALTH leaps-into-your-ear MOBILE WALLET, VIRTUAL MONEY 1 2 http:// 3 3 4 5 6 7 BUY NOW, PAY NOW THE RISE OF PRINT-AT-HOME MERCHANDISE fortunes-diverge-on-forecasts/ BRICK AND MORTAR EVOLUTION ADAPTING, EVOLVING RETAIL Chains-to-Close-Stores.htm consumers-clearly-prefer-shopping-in-stores-according-to-a-t-kearney-omnichannel-shopping-preferences-study- news-release/10192 IN-STORE AND DIGITAL SHOPPING COLLIDE digital/ shopping-experience HYBRID GROCERY SHOPPING Chicago Tribune, November 2014: story.html#page=1 Yahoo! Small Business, October 2014: delivering-groceries-184500132.html U-T San Diego, November 2014: billion-2019/ DIGITAL EDU-TAIN-NEWS DIGITAL KPIS GET SCRUTINIZED CONVERGENCE OF MEDIA BUYING (BEST OF BOTH WORLDS) TARGETING GETS CURRENT UTILITY APPS WIN least-for-me WEARABLES FIND THEIR PURPOSE PricewaterhouseCoopers, October 2014: future.jhtml Computer World, November 2014: microsoft-band.html CONNECTED DEVICES REAL-TIME PERSONALIZATION Nest-are-Changing-Marketing.html TECH WANTS US TO LIVE!/ SCREEN SHIFTS PASSWORDS GO AWAY death_of_the_password_biometrics_device_based_authentication_also_flawed.html for-biometric-authentication/ report UNFETISHIZING THE IPHONE BRG, February 2014: Business Insider, April 2014: ABC News, September 2014: Apple Insider, November 2014: units-in-q4-iphone-6-sales-more-than-double-iphone-6-plus