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The European territory in 2050


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Scenario's voor de Europese ruimtelijke planning in 2050

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The European territory in 2050

  1. 1. Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) Philippe Doucet VRP Internationaal lezingenavond 25 June 2012 - Brussels
  2. 2. The ESDP process: 1989-1999, 14 ministerial meetings
  3. 3. ESDP First Official Draft (Noordwijk, 1997): “What needs to be done and where?”
  4. 4. “What needs to be done and where?”: no answer...• in the Territorial Agenda 2007 (adopted in 2007 in Leipzig)• in the Territorial Agenda 2020 (adopted in 2011 in Gödöllő) • in the Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion• in the Baltic Sea Region and Danube Region Strategies
  5. 5. But some attempts were made, for example:Europe 2030 (Conference ofPeripheral and Maritime AreasCPMR , 2002)
  6. 6. Eurocities: European Territorial Vision and Framework (ETVF)“Giving Spatial Expression to the Concept of Territorial Cohesion”
  7. 7. Benelux Structural Outline, NWE Spatial Vision
  8. 8. All these exercises were tricky,and no formal attempt has ever been made in the framework of theEU economic, social and territorial cohesion policy.However, the ESPON 2006 programme, launched in 2002, wasmeant to provide technical support to the Territorial Agendaprocess, hence to contribute to a geographically differentiatedpolicy approach.ESPON 2006 = “European Spatial Planning Observation Network”.ESPON 2013 = “European Observation Network for TerritorialDevelopment and Cohesion”.ESPON 2006, Project 3.2 : “Scenarios on the territorial future ofEurope”.
  9. 9. ESPON Project 3.2 (published May 2007)
  10. 10. ESPONProject 3.2“Roll-backscenario”
  11. 11. ESPON 2006 Project 3.2 Balance Sheet+ a very stimulating first attempt to communicate the ESPON results+ consistent scenarios, based on a synthesis of the ESPON 2006 projects and many other sources+ geographically differentiated picture of some possible policy choices- limited communication with ESPON outsiders- no validation process with (EU) policy makers
  12. 12. ESPON 2013 Programme: ET2050 ProjectET 2050 stands for: « Scenarios and Visionfor the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) »Goal: supporting policy makers in formulating along-term integrated and coherent VISION for thedevelopment of the EU territory from 2010up to 2050.
  13. 13. ET2050 MethodologyScientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)Politically-driven (what would we like to happen?)
  14. 14. ET2050 MethodologyScientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)  
  15. 15. ET2050 work planLate June 2012
  16. 16. Tasks already performed (First Interim Report)• Analysis of Present State (16 reports) • By Sectors (demography, economy, energy, transport, land-uses, environment, governance) • By Territories (9 macro-zones covering EU+NC) • By European Policies (Cohesion, Agricultural, Transport, Environment…)• Critical Bifurcations ahead (aprox. 25)• Definition of Key Directions (aprox. 15 Trends + 15 Policies)• Comparison of Baseline Scenarios (aprox. 100 future-oriented studies)• Foresight exercise (indicators at World/EU scale (1950-2050, 10+50 indicators)• Forecast exercise (indicators at NUTS3) • Sectoral models (MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC-TT, METRONAMICA) and Integrated model (SASI)13. Analysis of results and adjustment of Baseline Scenario
  17. 17. Baseline Reference World IndicatorsOverall EU role in the World 1950-2050 (Europes share in the World) 100% Population GDP Trade Tourism Energy consumption CO2 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  18. 18. Critical Bifurcation Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario (Most Win)Wellfare (in average) Euro-crisis Break-up Worse-case Scenario for ST (All Lost) 1992 2012 2020 2050
  19. 19. Critical Bifurcation Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely ScenarioWellfare (in average) Baseline BAU (no Reforms) / Consensus Scenario Euro-crisis Break-up Worse-case Scenario (All Lost) 1992 2012 2020 2050
  20. 20. The Vision-scenarios iterative process Scientifically-drivenThe buildingprocess of thescenarios and theTerritorial VISIONshould be cyclicaland dynamicallowing various VISION Scenarioskey-players to takean active part in thedevelopment andtesting of theVISION andscenarios Politically-driven Important to address key-values and policy goals at an early stage of the ET2050 project implementation process
  21. 21. Participatoty process: involvement of various categories of stakeholders Proposal made in the project specificationsStep MC & DG Policy Private Scientific Regio makers sector experts1. Present State2. Baseline Scenario3. Territorial Scenarios4. Territorial Vision5. Mid-term Targets & Pathways …but this proposal has been reconsidered
  22. 22. 1st round of consultations: questionnaire1. What key EU policy issues should deserve particular attention in the ET2050 scenario building exercise?2. Should the scenarios focus on the possible evolution of the European territorial structure and EU policy-content, or also on possible change in the area of EU governance?3. What major trends / policy developments should be taken into account when elaborating the ET 2050 scenarios? Do you see some possible course of events that could emerge in the long run and whose importance is currently underestimated or simply ignored?4. What kind of possible EU paradigms should guide the elaboration of the scenarios and the Territorial Vision? What ideal European territory would you dream of for the 2050 time horizon?5. What recommendations would you like to express concerning the ET2050 scenario and Territorial Vision elaboration process?
  23. 23. Consultation outcome1. Many stimulating views, including some lateral thinking (brainstorming was encouraged)2. Emphasis on various recurrent topics: demography (as “heavy trend”), energy, climate change, etc.3. Vision Geographic scope: EU 27 too narrow. Extend to Euromed (rest of Europe + Mediterranean countries)4. EU2020 objectives (sustainable, inclusive and smart growth) regarded as key goals, but also territorial integration5. Emphasis on the evolution of EU policy making and governance, including policy integration6. More unusual paradigms were put forward more than once: happiness, beautiful Europe, etc.
  24. 24. ET2050 Consortium MCRIT, LP POLIMI Andreu Ulied Roberto CamagniESPON CU Oriol Biosca Roberta Capello Rafael Rodrigo Ugo FratesiSara Ferrara IOM TERSYNMarjan van Herwijnen (Jacques Robert) Marek Kupiszewski Dorota KupiszewskaSounding Board IGEAT Philippe Doucet RIKS Moritz Lennert Jaspers de VlietPatrick Salez Valérie Biot Hedwig van DeldenKarl Peter Schon Jean-Michel Decroly Nordregio RKK Alexandre Dubois Ivan Illes Katalin Süle University of Thessaly (UTH) Harry Coccosis S&W Michael Wegener WSE Klaus Spiekermann Jacek Szlachta ISIS Carlo Sessa ERSILIA Jaume Jorba
  25. 25. Please visit: Thank you for your attention!