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Eva Steensig - Hidden Disruption

What is Hidden Disruption? What is the greatest challenge to companies worldwide? It is not about technology or competitors. It is about behavioral change, even on the smallest of scales.

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Eva Steensig - Hidden Disruption

  3. 3. HIDDEN DISRUPTION is the result of changing behaviour – people start doing something else
  4. 4. The weak signals of behavioural changes start as a single behavioural change. Slowly more behavioural changes appear from different parts of peoples lives. Imperceptibly they form patterns of behavioural changes with enough power to create HIDDEN DISRUPTION.
  6. 6. HIDDEN DISRUPTION • HIDDEN DISRUPTION may cut volumes on markets or move consumption to other categories or other products. • HIDDEN DISRUPTION is a potential threat for companies if thrown off by it - but it offers great opportunities if detected and understood in time. • HIDDEN DISRUPTION impacts more businesses harder than the hard disruption everyone is looking for.
  7. 7. Det perfekte Egoisme Succes Imponator Resultater Den bedste udgave af mig Perfektion/ydre skønhed Rammen om succes Premium Systematiseret tilværelse Specialiseret Forskansning Sundhed Mig og mine Samvær og science Rationel ramme om drømme Effektivitet Underspillet Autencitet Livskvalitet Hele mig Ubleget og råt Autentisk og livskvalitet Langborde Det balancerede Fællesskab Emotionel kapital Omtanke Indre skønhed Mig og omverden Økologi og ægthed Wellness og nydelse Velvære 1000 Det ægte Individualisme Målsøgning Analog længsel Værdier Iscenesættelse Harmoni og nærhed Personligt Samvær 20 Sårbarhed og kontrol Ting vil aldrig gå tilbage til hvor de kom fra
  8. 8. One thing is certain, no matter what business or industry you are in: Things will never be the same again. So waiting for things to get “back to normal” is at best a waste of time, at worse threatening for your business.
  10. 10. From violin classes to major market threat Parents began to register their children for ballet classes and violin classes at a very young age (3 years wait for violin classes following the Suzuki method) People began to read books about upbringing by experts focusing on routines, cleanliness and discipline Parents began to use new methods to teach babies how to sleep, i.e. letting them cry in their beds for a certain amount of minutes before going to see them and repeating this at specific intervals Parents enrolled their children in hard-core private schools TV programmes celebrating the best and wisest children A site made it possible to compare grades of schools Baby Einstein products (attempting to stimulate children to higher capacity or intelligence) became highly popular Parents began to toilet-train their children earlier in life in order to get them up and running independently sooner Private help for homework was being offered to gifted children, as opposed to before, where it was only considered relevant for children with difficulties in school Parents started to switch the balance between playing and learning, focusing heavily on learning Parents began to post their children’s successes on SoMe, everything from grades in school to accomplishments in the sports field.
  11. 11. • More restrictive towards kids Behavioural scenarios • Potty training sooner to speed up development Consequences • Reduced use of diapers Possible market implications • Potty training later to avoid “mess” • Increased use of diapers • Focus on learning and increasing skills • Potential new role for diapers as tool for upbringing • New market opportunities • Front- & back stage (trophy kids) • Kids become a part of parents image • New market for “invisible” diapers• Parents want to “hide” the use of diapers • Parents use diapers as image creating • Need for “branded” diapers as show off • Increasing listening to experts • Potential new role for diaper brand as expert • New market opportunities • New parent role – “parents in control” • Parents re-install themselves as authorities towards kids • New communication landscape; Parents as filter for consumption and communication “Tougher upbringing” POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE
  12. 12. DIAPER BRAND For a global manufacturer of diapers, these behavioural changes turned out to have a massive impact. The extend of the impact was easy to calculate. The financial consequences of earlier toilet training were an extensive loss of diaper market. The extend of this loss was depending on whether the children were toilet-trained 1, 3, 6, or 9 months earlier than what parents used to, and the calculation could be modelled into the different outcomes of this.
  13. 13. An approach to see changes leading to HIDDEN DISRUPTION in time
  14. 14. MANAGERS HAVE TO DO THINGS DIFFERENTLY • Managers must start looking the other way. Instead of looking at their direct competitors, they have to look at what is going on in people’s everyday lives. • HIDDEN DISRUPTION comes from people’s lives and behaviour, meaning that managers have to be interested in ordinary people’ lives, even in parts not directly related to business. • The weak signals of behavioural changes are not systematic or linear numbers on a spreadsheet. • The weaker the signal is, the more meaning and power it tends to have. • You must allow doubt and wondering in order to see things happening you did not expect or predict. • Managers have to stop traditional forecasting since one of the core dynamics of behavioural change among people is counter-reactions to what is or just was. • Companies must start spending time and energy on understanding the world, people, and the presence we are all part of. They need to do so because it is essential to their success and survival.
  15. 15. The larger the company is, the further away the company tends to be from the world people live in
  16. 16. Change cannot be forecasted in a linear way. Counter reaction is the basis of change and will change the direction of change.
  17. 17. CHANGE COMES FROM COUNTER-REACTIONS • It is of outmost importance to be aware of the fact that behavioural change is often a counter-reaction to what is perceived as dominant or normal behaviour. • What we do today is based on what we did yesterday, and it forms the basis for what we do tomorrow. Significant counter-reactions become dominant and normal behaviour and is the major driver of behavioural change.
  18. 18. REVERSE TICK
  19. 19. #MeToo REVERSE TICK: #METOO
  20. 20. Antropologist Mary Douglas ”After decorated comes plain”
  21. 21. A major rice manufacturer in the Saudi region, historically selling large volumes of rice (10 kg bags) The structure of everyday life is changing People are increasingly inspired by other parts of the world, e.g. meaning that they start eating different kinds of food Prefabricated foods are becoming available and perceived highly exciting Women start driving cars Families cooking less due to new fast foods appearing Women start getting education Women begin to work People stop building their own homes People start to rent smaller more efficient homes • People are likely to eat less plain rice since they eat a lot of other things and spend less time cooking at home. • Potential drop in sales volumes unless you manage to do something else. • opportunity to create new kinds and brands of rice made to fit different kinds of foods and be prepared in different ways. Thus, the price of a kilo of rice could be bumped up since it is no longer plain rice in 10 kg bags which are preferred, but potentially processed, ready to eat, or premium rice in other sizes, looks, and packages
  23. 23. THE APPROACH We sat out to create an approach that: • Mirrors reality in all its complexity • That detects what will become dominating behaviour and therefore commercially interesting • That is immediately operational for companies to act upon • That is transparent to all involved and potentially for companies to apply themselves
  24. 24. • Finds and understands patterns in behavioural changes. • Central to pick up patterns and weak signals for future success. It provides a framework to proactively seek, model and act on leading indicators, often- termed “weak” signals, that form patterns in the marketplace and to exploit them for competitive advantage PATTERN BASED FORECASTING Unique philosophy and a sociologically inspired method
  25. 25. How to get to love change
  26. 26. SOMETHING EVERYBODY CAN DO • We look at and listen systematically to people related to the case, market, or industry we work with. • We walk the streets, we talk to people, we look at people, we listen to people, we observe people in their lives, we search the social media, the internet, we listen to the music played and see the food eaten.. • We favour actual behaviour over presumptions • We favour actual behaviour over psychologists’ interpretations • We favour action over opinion • And we insist on what people do have face value.’ • We help companies to see and understand the weak signals, which are likely to impact them.
  27. 27. VARIOUS PURPOSES AND GAINS Alertness to change in the organisation Understanding signs of change for specific purposes
  28. 28. HOW TO
  29. 29. 3 BASIC STEPS 1. Collect signs of change 2. Identify patterns of change 3. Identify business implications
  30. 30. 1. Collect signs of change Collect signs of change Where to look for signs of change? A sign is a behavioural change that makes you wonder Please allow people to collect signs broadly outside your own market How much time do you need to collect signs of change? You don’t need a lot of time – the signs are out there – keep momentum How many signs do we need? At this point quantity is king! Who should look for signs? Everybody. Best signs often some from people you would not expect them from How to make sense of the signs? At this point dont. Refrain from giving meaning to the signs
  31. 31. 1. Signs of change
  32. 32. 2. Identify patterns of change Signs of change session Discuss and understand the signs Huge boards and lots of post-it Ask yourself: What is this a sign of? What about local and global signs? Be aware of the fact that we live local and global lives Form patterns Put signs together which are signs of the same/similar. Title pattern What is a pattern? A pattern is a number of signs of pointing in the same direction Connect the patterns Discuss how the patterns are connec-ted to identify the overall direction
  33. 33. Signs – patterns - direction
  34. 34. Illustration: Signs – patterns - direction Upbring- ing gurus Mensa schools Decrease interest in creative schools Private schools Children's fashion 1,5 years wait for violin lessons Elite Schools Work-life: On winning team People seeking to become winners in a competitive environment and show success to surroundings More restrictive approach to childrenFront stage food Premium and discount
  35. 35. 3. Identify business implications What is the essence of the patterns? What could our response be to these changes? What does it potentially mean to you? Extensive or simple, short- or long-term. There is rarely one answer only. Are there patterns, which call for immediate action? Potential Soft Disruption or huge opportunity Look up and out and stop looking to the sides Change is likely to come from an unexpected angle Stay sharp - don’t get blinded by change Hold on to DNA/essence of company when deciding what would be right for your company to do. Be ready to make subjective and bold decisions On a highly qualified and solid foundation
  36. 36. • HIDDEN DISRUPTION is the result of changing behaviour among people • It will impact businesses throughout the world and throughout industries • It is possible to detect and understand the weak signals and patterns of changing behaviour, which will enable you to act upon these changes in time and become a winner and not a victim of these changes. • Working with signs of change and understand the patterns they form and the interrelated direction will make you love change and dare to look at change in all its complexity and uncertainty and allow wondering without fear.