© 2013 Platts,McGraw Hill Financial.All rights reserved.Global Polymer ReviewSimon Thorne – Global Editorial Director, Pet...
Mid East/China PP BalanceMiddle East China202468101214162013 2014 2015 2016 2017CapacityOutputDemandBalance-50510152025201...
Middle East/China PE BalanceMiddle East051015202530352013 2014 2015 2016 2017CapacityOutputDemandBalanceChina-15-10-505101...
Middle East PP/PE surplus0123456782013 2014 2015 2016 2017PPPE4
China has lowest PP homo prices5100011001200130014001500160017001800CFR FEACFR BrazilCFR N Africa
China has the lowest LLDPE prices100011001200130014001500160017001800CFR FEACFR BrazilCFR N Africa6
Crackers closures; investments in butadiene7Cracker ClosuresCompany Location Capacity YearShell 2B, Wesseling, Germany 250...
European polyethylene profitability dented8100 100 50111 139156218 177 218660372810616917471050010001500US - WE ME-WE WE-W...
The Miracle of Shale9Source: PlattsEthylene margins have never been better for N.A. producers
N.A. Long-Term Strategy: Exports10Source: Industry estimates, Townsend Solutions, Platts research19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 ...
World’s Largest Petchem Industries – 201111Source: ACC, Cefic, ABIQUIMCOUNTRY NET SALES1 CHINA 1,2862 UNITED STATES 7593 J...
Brazil’s Petchems Trade Balance – 201212Source: MDIC/Secex – Sistema AliceWeb, ABIQUIM4.0 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.9 7.4 8.9 10.7 11....
Ethane: The Ethylene Bet13Source: Company announcementsIF built, proposed greenfield projects in the US could add as mucha...
Ethane: The Ethylene Bet14Source: Company announcements, PlattsBrownfield projects are the ones to watchCompany Location +...
Downstream: Polyethylene15Source: Company announcements, PlattsProposed US/Canada PE expansions, if realized, could consum...
Latin American Polymers: The Vitals16• Population: 590 million• 2013 GDP: 3.5% (estimated)• Economicpowerhouse:Brazil (BRI...
Africa’s polyolefin deficit1701,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000Supply DemandPolyolefins in A...
2012 – Major cracker capacities05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000Asia Europe MiddleEastNorthAmer...
2017- Cracker Expansions010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000Asia Europe Middle East North AmericaSouth America Afri...
Olefins & Aromatics
Impact of the shale revolution
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Platts Petrochemicals - Global polymer review 2013

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A review of the Global polymer industry presented at the recent Platts Commodity Week in Dubai
http://www.platts.com/news-analysis/petrochemicals

Published in: Business, Technology

Platts Petrochemicals - Global polymer review 2013

  1. 1. © 2013 Platts,McGraw Hill Financial.All rights reserved.Global Polymer ReviewSimon Thorne – Global Editorial Director, Petrochemicals and AgricultureSok Peng Chua – Managing Editor Petrochemicals, Asia and MEBernardo Fallas – Editor Petrochemicals , AmericasNandita Lal – AssociateEditor Petrochemicals, Europe
  2. 2. Mid East/China PP BalanceMiddle East China202468101214162013 2014 2015 2016 2017CapacityOutputDemandBalance-505101520252013 2014 2015 2016 2017CapacityOutputDemandBalance
  3. 3. Middle East/China PE BalanceMiddle East051015202530352013 2014 2015 2016 2017CapacityOutputDemandBalanceChina-15-10-50510152025302013 2014 2015 2016 2017CapacityOutputDemandBalance3
  4. 4. Middle East PP/PE surplus0123456782013 2014 2015 2016 2017PPPE4
  5. 5. China has lowest PP homo prices5100011001200130014001500160017001800CFR FEACFR BrazilCFR N Africa
  6. 6. China has the lowest LLDPE prices100011001200130014001500160017001800CFR FEACFR BrazilCFR N Africa6
  7. 7. Crackers closures; investments in butadiene7Cracker ClosuresCompany Location Capacity YearShell 2B, Wesseling, Germany 250,000 2011Versalis Porto Torres, Italy 240,000 2011Total NCI, Antwerp, Belgium 255,000 2012Butadiene InvestmentsCompany Location Capacity YearLyondellBasell Wesseling, Germany 238,000 2013BASF Antwerp, Belgium 155,000 2014Versalis Dunkrik, France 70,000 2015OMV Burghausen, Germany 2015Evonik Antwerp, Belgium 200,000 2015Source. Platts data
  8. 8. European polyethylene profitability dented8100 100 50111 139156218 177 218660372810616917471050010001500US - WE ME-WE WE-WEMarginEthylene cashcostsOther conversioncostsCapital costsTransportationUS couldprice PEas low as$1,210/mtfor a 10%marginThiscouldreduceMEmarginsby 48%Thiswouldclosemarginalcapacityuntilaveragefalls to$1,210/mtSource: Booz and Co.
  9. 9. The Miracle of Shale9Source: PlattsEthylene margins have never been better for N.A. producers
  10. 10. N.A. Long-Term Strategy: Exports10Source: Industry estimates, Townsend Solutions, Platts research19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.821 21.325.528.5 28.514.514.115.2 15.816.4 17 17.618.218.9 19.620.3 210510152025302008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019NA CapacityNA DemandMajor PE surplus is expected, even with demand growthestimated at a very optimistic 3.6% annual average for region
  11. 11. World’s Largest Petchem Industries – 201111Source: ACC, Cefic, ABIQUIMCOUNTRY NET SALES1 CHINA 1,2862 UNITED STATES 7593 JAPAN 3824 GERMANY 2615 KOREA 1726 BRAZIL 1577 INDIA 1528 FRANCE 1519 ITALY 11510 RUSSIA 11411 UNITED KINGDOM 10312 TAIWAN 9013 HOLLAND 8314 SPAIN 8215 SWITZERLAND 73US$ billions
  12. 12. Brazil’s Petchems Trade Balance – 201212Source: MDIC/Secex – Sistema AliceWeb, ABIQUIM4.0 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.9 7.4 8.9 10.7 11.9 10.4 13.1 15.814.810.7 10.8 10.1 11.0 14.515.3 17.423.935.126.133.742.343.000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Exports ImportsImports +12,3% per yearExports + 11,5% per yearDeficit + 12,8% per year6.6 7.2 6.3 6.2 8.6 7.9 8.513.223.215.720.726.528.000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12DeficitUS$ billions19%6%Brazil imports 2012US$ 223.1 billionBrazil exports2012US$ 242.6 billion
  13. 13. Ethane: The Ethylene Bet13Source: Company announcementsIF built, proposed greenfield projects in the US could add as muchas 8.55-9.15 million mt/yr of ethylene capacity by 2017Company Location ,000 mt/yr ETAExxonMobil Chemical Texas 1,500 2016Formosa Plastics CUSA Texas 800 2016Chevron Phillips Chemical Texas 1,500 2017Dow Chemical Texas 1,500 2017Sasol Louisiana 1,500 2017Occidental/Mexichem Texas 550 2017Shell Chemical Pennsylvania 1,000-1,500 2017Aither Chemical/RMG TBD/USNE 200-300 2017
  14. 14. Ethane: The Ethylene Bet14Source: Company announcements, PlattsBrownfield projects are the ones to watchCompany Location +,000 mt/yr ETABASF-Total Texas 60 2012Dow Chemical (restart) Louisiana 400 2012Westlake Chemical Louisiana 110 2013Williams Louisiana 230 2013Ineos Texas 120 2013Westlake Chemical Kentucky 80 2014BASF-Total Texas 100 2014Westlake Chemical Louisiana 110 2015LyondellBasell Texas (3) 830 2014-16Dow Chemical TX/LA (2) 400 2014-16
  15. 15. Downstream: Polyethylene15Source: Company announcements, PlattsProposed US/Canada PE expansions, if realized, could consumemore than 7 million mt/year of new ethylene capacitiesCompany Location MM mt/yr ETAFormosa Plastics CUSA Texas (1) 0.3 (LDPE) 2016Sasol North America Louisiana (2) 0.9 (LL/HD/LD) 2017NOVA Chemicals Joffre, Canada 1.0 (LLDPE) 2017ChevronPhillips Chemical Texas (2) 1.0 (TBD) 2017ExxonMobil Chemical Texas (2) 1.3 (TBD) 2017Dow Chemical USG TBD 2017NOVA Chemicals TBD, Canada World scale 2017Shell Chemical Pennsylvania 1.0 (TBD) 2017LyondellBasell USG 1.0 (TBD) TBD
  16. 16. Latin American Polymers: The Vitals16• Population: 590 million• 2013 GDP: 3.5% (estimated)• Economicpowerhouse:Brazil (BRIC)• Polymer production: 5.0 million/yr PE3.6 million/yr PP• Plastics consumption: 18 kg/year• Major producer: Braskem (Brazil)3 million/yr PE2 million/yr PP• Region accounts 6% of global PVCdemand but only 4% of production• Key stat: Approximately73 millionpeople in Latin America joined themiddle class between 2000 and 2010Source: ECLAC, World Bank, Al Fajer InformationServices
  17. 17. Africa’s polyolefin deficit1701,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000Supply DemandPolyolefins in AfricaSource. Platts data
  18. 18. 2012 – Major cracker capacities05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000Asia Europe MiddleEastNorthAmericaSouthAmericaAfricaDemandSupply2012 - Ethylene Balances
  19. 19. 2017- Cracker Expansions010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000Asia Europe Middle East North AmericaSouth America AfricaDemandSupply2017 - Ethylene Balances
  20. 20. Olefins & Aromatics
  21. 21. Impact of the shale revolution

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