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COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

                      Overview of Case Studies
These notes are only meant to provide a quick overview over the key points of the case studies we studied in
class. For the exam you should also look again at the class slides, your notes and the original documents.




                           1. Chicago Summer Olympics.
                           2. Iraq War
                           3. London congestion charge
                           4. Chicago Child-Parent Centers Early Education
                           5. Three Gorges Dam, China
                           6. Domestic oil drilling
                           7. The Clean Air Act
                           8. Homeland Security
                           9. Chickenpox Vaccination
                           10. Smoking in the Czech Republic
                           11. Second Avenue Subway


  For the exam, ignore studies 5 and 11 (3 Gorges Dam and NYC Second Avenue Subway)
1. EVENTS - OLYMPICS

                   Watkins SD, Anderson PL. The Likely Economic Impact of a Chicago 2016 Summer Olympics. AEG Working
Study
                   Paper 2009-9
What is the
purpose of the
                   Study whether hosting the Olympics in Chicago min 2016 would make economic sense
cost benefit
analysis?
What are the
                   Hosting the Olympics versus not hosting them
policy options?
What is the
perspective?
                   Both: City of Chicago
Who has
standing?
What are the
main costs?        Construction of stadia and venues, advertising, catering

How are they       Based on budget estimates
calculated?
What are the
main               Revenues from visitors, athletes and journalists (spending on hotel, meals)
impacts/benefits   Tickets sales, sponsorships, advertising
considered in
the study?         Projected number of visitor days x average spending per day
How are they
measured and       + Multiplier effect (An increase in spending produces an increase in income and consumption greater
what               than the initial amount spent)
methodology is
used to value      Calculations account for substitution effect (tourists spending money in Chicago even without Olympics)
them?
What discount
                   No discounting
rate is used?

                   Problem of Exaggerated “Economic Impact” Claims:
                   a) Substitution Effect:
                   Additional expenditure replaces another expenditure, not truly additional, e.g., just a shifting of economic
                   activity, e.g. instead of family going to dinner and a movie they buy tickets to an Olympic event
                   Underestimation of SE- True economic impact: only net benefits, i.e., dollars that would have been spent
                   somewhere else or not at all.

                   b) Multipliers:
Other
                   Tendency to use multipliers that overstate indirect impact of an event
                   Only dollars that are spent in the local economy count.
                   Chain stores and restaurants – large % of profits might go to HQ elsewhere

                   Also, “Crowding Out” Effect:
                   Visitors who might have visited Chicago as part of a regularly planned vacation may visit another
                   destination to avoid Olympic crowds and prices
                   Residents might leave temporarily for the same reason

Additional Info    Class slides – Class 3 – September 19
2. IRAQ WAR

                   Stiglitz J and L Bilmes. 2008. The Three Trillion Dollar War; The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict. WW Norton &
Study
                   Co.: New York, NY. Working paper version: http://works.bepress.com/joseph_stiglitz/10/
What is the         ▫ Give an idea of the true cost of the war compared to estimates prior to the war ($1 trillion+ versus prior
purpose of the        estimate of $50-60 billion)
cost benefit        ▫ Show main budgetary costs and main economic costs
analysis?           ▫ Show distribution of cost over time - what are we paying for now versus what we will pay for later?
What are the
                   War versus no war
policy options?
What is the
perspective?       Financial and economic/social costs – US only
Who has            Iraqis have no standing
standing?

                   Financial Costs
                   1. Military operations – Department of Defense Expenditures
                   2. Future operations - Costs estimated to be proportional to the number of troops scheduled to be
                      deployed in Iraq from 2006-2010
                   3. US fatalities – Death benefits paid to families of deceased soldiers
                   4. Veterans care – VA expenditures per case projected into the future
                   5. Replenishment of military to original strength
What are the       6. Interest payments to support deficit financing of war – 2 scenarios – paid back within 5 years, not paid
main costs?
                      back – 4% interest rate
How are they
calculated?        + Economic Adjustments to above (mainly to account for costs borne by other than federal government,
                   also for market distortions)

                   + Macroeconomic Costs
                   1. Increase in Price of Oil ($25 a barrel before war to $50 in 2005, 20% of that
                      price increase assumed due to Iraq war)
                   2. Increase in Defense expenditures
                   3. Increase in Insecurity

What are the
main
impacts/benefits   Ex   Ante benefits mostly not realized, not valued in the paper
considered in       •   Supplies of oil, lower price of oil
the study?
                    •   Stability in the Middle East
                    •   Gratitude of Iraqis
How are they
measured and        •   Reduction in future terrorist attacks
what                •   Testing of military equipment (future sales)
methodology is
used to value
them?
What discount
                   4% , nominal , seems low, undervaluation of cost of capital
rate is used?
                   Not considered:
                   • All costs borne by other countries
Did the study        • Military costs
consider all         • Destruction of property
possible costs
                     • Loss of life
and benefits or
                   • All costs of increased security
is there
something that     • Increased costs of cross border flows
could be           • Reduced investment
added?             • Consequences of loss of credibility
                   • Value of reduced capability of responding to national security threats elsewhere in the world

Additional Info    Class Slides – Class 8 – November 7
3. TRANSPORTATION – CONGESTION CHARGE
Study              Leape J. 2006. The London congestion charge. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20, 157-176
What is the
purpose of the
                   Compares costs and benefits of the London Congestion charge introduced in London in 2003
cost benefit
analysis?
What are the
                   Charge vs. no charge
policy options?
What is the
perspective?
Who has
                   City of London, all commuters
standing?

                        •   Administrative costs
What are the            •   Cost of operating the scheme (turned out much higher than expected)
main costs?
                        •   Setup costs
How are they            •   Traffic management costs (mainly increased bus service)
calculated?
                   Based on expenditure records


What are the       Time savings and reliability benefits
main               Reduced accidents (fewer cars)
impacts/benefits   Reduced CO2 emissions
considered in
the study?
                   Impacts measured:
                      •   Changes in traffic entering Central London
How are they
measured and          •   Number of trips
what                  •   Number of vehicle miles driven
methodology is        •   Number of people switching to buses
used to value         •   Impact on average speed
them?
                   Valuation: Time saved per trip valued at wage rate, fuel cost saved at lower congestion rate
What discount
                   --
rate is used?

Other              Good example of charge/tax imposed to reduce an externality (congestion)


Additional Info    Class Slides – Class 7 - October 31
4. EARLY EDUCATION

                   Reynolds AJ, Temple JA, Robertson DL, and EA Mann. 2011. Age 26 cost-benefit analysis of the Title I
Study              Chicago Child-Parent Centers. Child Development, January/February 2011, Volume 82, Number 1, Pages
                   379–404

                   Tries to answer the following three main questions:
                   ▫ Does participation in the CPC program continue to demonstrate high economic benefits relative to
What is the
                       costs?
purpose of the
                   ▫ Do the estimated economic benefits differ across the three components of the program (preschool,
cost benefit
analysis?              school-age, and extended-program participation)?
                   ▫ Do economic benefits differ by child and family subgroups, including gender, parent education, family
                       risk status, neighborhood poverty, and length of participation?


                   •   Children attending the CPC program
What are the
                   •   Children attending the usual early childhood programs in preschool or kindergarten in the
policy options?
                       neighborhood


                   Standing: both participants and society in general
                   • Benefits to participants are for the child and parent attending the program (increased earnings
                      capacity over the life course and the value to parents for the provision of part-day preschool)
What is the
                   • Benefits to the general public (averted expenditures for remedial education and child welfare
perspective?
                      spending by governments, reduced tangible and intangible expenditures to crime victims, reduced
Who has
standing?             expenditures for mental health and substance abuse treatment, and increased tax revenues to
                      governments associated with increased earnings)
                   • Benefits to society: sum of benefits to program participants and the general public, including
                      government savings.

What are the       •   All outlays for staff, family and community support, administration, operations and maintenance,
main costs?            instructional materials, transportation and community services, school-wide services, school district
                       support, capital depreciation and interest,
How are they       •   Estimates derived from operational budgets of the Chicago Public Schools
calculated?
                   Impacts during early years of interventions difficult to quantify and monetize
                   e.g. impacts at younger ages – social adjustment, increased ability to handle frustration, less acting out…

                   Grades K through 12: Cost savings due to reduced rates of retention, lower need for special education
                   classes, lower involvement in youth criminality

What are the       Findings at ages 19+: Significantly higher rates of high school completion, and completion of more years
main               of education - resulting in an increase in lifetime earnings, government tax revenue, lower crime rates
impacts/benefits   and costs, lower rate of substance abuse and smoking.
considered in
the study?
                   Lifetime earnings and tax revenues projected based on years of education (high school dropouts vs. high
How are they
                   school graduates vs. college graduates)
measured and
what
methodology is     Overall study design: Non-randomized, quasi control group (no randomization because of ethical
used to value      concerns - proven effectiveness of intervention and intention to target participants most in need)
them?




What discount
                   3%, all benefits discounted to age 3 (=year 0) of the program
rate is used?
                   Extremely well funded and well-designed program, not all early education programs might show the same
Other
                   level of impact.
Additional Info    Class Slides – Class 9 – November 14
5. INFRASTRUCTURE - DAMS

                   Morimoto R and C Hope. 2004. Applying a cost-benefit analysis model to the Three Gorges project in
Study
                   China. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 22, 205-220
What is the
purpose of the
                   CBA of Three Gorges Dam project
cost benefit
analysis?
What are the
                   Dam versus status quo
policy options?
What is the
perspective?
                   Chinese government
Who has
standing?
                   Construction costs
What are the       Operation and maintenance
main costs?

How are they       Valued based on original budget + high and low scenario
calculated?
                   In addition – costs of negative impacts (see there)
                   Positive Impacts
                   •    Power generation (+switch to clean power)
                   •    Economic growth
What are the
                   •    Flood control
main
impacts/benefits   •    Navigation improvement
considered in
the study?         Negative Impacts
                   •  Displacement of huge numbers of people (most recent estimate 6 million)
How are they       •  Submersion of vast areas of fertile farmland;
measured and       •  Vulnerability to sabotage and earthquake
what               •  Likely deterioration of water quality, affecting fisheries and others
methodology is
                   •  Loss of a great tourist attraction and antiquities
used to value
them?              •  Sedimentation likely to reduce power generation

                   Valuation based on estimated quantities x unit costs (for details see slides). Minimum, most likely and max
                   scenarios and Monte Carlo analysis for all variables.
What discount
                   5%
rate is used?
Other              Most of the negative impacts seems undervalued
Additional Info    NOT COVERED THIS SEMESTER
6. OIL DRILLING
Study              Hahn R and P Passell. 2008. The economics of allowing more domestic oil drilling. AEI paper 08-21

What is the        CBA of allowing drilling in two areas in the US so far not open for oil drilling - Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife
purpose of the
                   Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)
cost benefit
analysis?          1) Estimation of impact on US gasoline prices
                   2) Cost-benefit analysis
What are the
                   Drilling in ANWRA, OCS or both, compared to status quo (no drilling)
policy options?
What is the
perspective?       US/Societal perspective
Who has            Standing: US oil producers and consumers
standing?

                   •   Producers’ oil extraction and marketing costs
                   •   Loss of “Use value” - cost of not being able to use resources for other purposes such as hunting, bird
                       watching
What are the       •   Loss of “Non-use value” – from perceived uniqueness of the resource
main costs?

How are they       Production costs based on historical cost per barrel
calculated?        Use value – gains from land use, employment, losses from negative impacts on air and water quality,
                   resulting losses in tourism and degradation of animal habitats
                   For non-use value use of the contingent valuation data from the Exxon Valdez oil spill for ANWR, assumed
                   to be $0 for OCS

What are the       •   Revenues going to producers
main               •   Domestic benefits to consumers associated with lower world oil prices
impacts/benefits   •   Reduced economic costs of disruption associated with adjusting to rapid price fluctuations
considered in      •   Reduced expenditures on oil imports leading to reduced terrorist activities /destabilizing military
the study?             expenditures in the Middle East (not valued in the study)
How are they
measured and       Valuation:
what               Revenues ($100 a barrel x barrels sold)
methodology is     Assumption that domestic production will reduce prices to consumers by 10%, reduction in disruption by
used to value      5%.
them?
What discount
                   One year snapshot, no discounting
rate is used?

                   Study biased toward showing benefit of drilling (study by conservative think tank – American Enterprise
                   Institute)
                   • Use of production cost and revenue estimates at opposite ends of spectrum (400% profit margin?)
                   • Consumer savings inconsistent with results of first part of study (which show that drilling would have
Other                  essentially no impact on gasoline prices)
                   • Complete undervaluation of social cost
                   • Use of WTP (Exxon Valdez) for the non-use value…should use WTA which is much higher
                   • No accounting for pollution/CO2 emission
                   • Doesn’t include any value for predicted oil spill

Additional Info    Class Slides – Class 10 – November 19
7. ENVIRONMENT – CLEAN AIR ACT

                   The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990. Executive Summary
Study              The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990. Appendix I. The Valuation of Health and
                   Welfare Effects.
What is the
                   How do the overall health, welfare, ecological, and economic benefits of Clean Air Act programs
purpose of the
                   compare to the costs of these programs?
cost benefit
analysis?          Periodic CBAs of the Clean Air Act mandated by the 1990 CAA Amendment
What are the       Implementation of Clean Air Act versus status quo (assumption that no air pollution controls were
policy options?    established beyond those in place prior to enactment of the 1970 Amendments).
What is the
perspective?
                   US society
Who has
standing?

                   Direct Cost:
                   • Cost of installing, operating, and maintaining pollution abatement equipment (mainly scrubbers in
                      smoke stacks and catalytic converters in cars).
What are the       • In addition, design and implementation of regulations, monitoring compliance, and investments in
main costs?           research and development

How are they       Presented as annual costs: Amortized capital costs plus operating and maintenance costs
calculated?
                   + Indirect Cost:
                   Increased production costs > higher consumer prices > lower demand > reduced output and employment
                   Electricity generation (prices + 2-4%, demand -3-5%), other goods (vehicles, etc.) about 1% reduction in
                   output

                   Observed reduction in harmful emissions (SO2, NOX, CO) leading to improved air quality leading to
                   improved health and mortality outcomes

                   Specific health outcomes: Reduction in incidence of asthma, bronchitis, hypertension, heart disease,
What are the       elevated blood lead levels leading to reductions in IQ,
main
impacts/benefits   To get from Air Quality to Health Effects:
considered in          1. Development of “Concentration-response functions” to relate outdoor concentrations of harmful
the study?
                            substances to changes in the incidence of health effects and mortality
                       2. Estimation of the exposure of individuals to those air pollutants
How are they
measured and           3. Valuation of avoided human health risk by application of estimates from the literature - unit values
what                        per case avoided
methodology is
used to value      Valuation: Either existing WTP or WTA estimates or Cost-of-Illlness (COI) estimates
them?              COI: present value (PV) costs of treating the illness over the years, as well as the PV of the stream of lost
                   earnings related to the illness

                   Usually COI values < WTP < WTA values since they exclude pain and suffering

                   Lead levels: Negative effect on education level and income
What discount
                   5%, with sensitivity analysis at 3% and 7%
rate is used?

Other
Additional Info    Class Slides – Class 10 – November 19
8. HOMELAND SECURITY

                  Mueller J and MG Stewart. 2011. Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security.
Study
                  Homeland Security Affairs, Vol. 7, Article 16 (August 2011).
What is the
purpose of the    Comparison of the cost of security measures with the benefits as tallied in lives saved and damages
cost benefit      averted
analysis?
What are the
                  ‘Enhanced” security measures or doing nothing
policy options?
What is the
perspective?
                  US
Who has
standing?
What are the
main costs?
                  Documented Increased annual expenditures on homeland security (on average +$75 billion a year)
How are they
calculated?
What are the
main impacts/
benefits          Lives saved and damages averted
considered in     Cost based on past terrorist attacks (eg., 9/11, London subway, failed Times Square bombing)
the study?

What discount
                  Comparison of 1-year expenditures to 1-year benefits, no discounting
rate is used?
                                                                   Annual cost spent on enhanced security measure
                  Cost per Life Saved =    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Fatalities averted by enhanced security measure OR
                                        Fatalities before enhanced security measure x % risk reduction due to enhanced SM

                  Several definitions of cost-effectiveness:
                  1. “A security measure is cost-effective if the benefit of the measure outweighs the cost of providing the
                     security measures” = B>C = Net Benefit >0

                  According to that criterion:
                  Enhanced expenditures seem excessive
                   “To be deemed cost-effective the security measures would have to deter, prevent, foil or protect each
                  year against 1,667 otherwise successful attacks that inflicted some $100 million in damage (more than 4 a
                  day) or 167 attacks inflicting $1 billion in damage (nearly one every other day) “
Other
                  Generally accepted criterion for cost-effectiveness of security measures:
                  2. “Cost per life saved not exceeding $1–$10 million is typical as this provides a reasonably accurate
                     reflection of societal considerations of risk acceptability and willingness to pay to save a life.
                     If the annual cost per life saved exceeds $1–$10 million, such risk reduction expenditure is deemed to
                     have failed a cost-benefit analysis and so is not cost-effective” (Viscusi)

                  Even based on that criterion many of the security measures put in place do not qualify (exception
                  hardened cockpit doors, passenger and crew sensitization)

                  Problems with current Dept of Homeland Security approach:
                  •   Focus on worst case scenarios;
                  •   Addition, rather than multiplication of, the probabilities;
                  •   Assessment of relative, rather than absolute, risk; and
                  •   Inflation of terrorist capacities and the importance of potential terrorist targets

                  Class Slides – Class 11 – November 28
                  Mueller J. 2008. The Quixotic Quest for Invulnerability: Assessing the Cost, Benefits, and Probabilities of
Additional Info
                  Protecting the Homeland. Prepared for presentation at the National Convention of the International
                  Studies Association San Francisco, California March 26-29, 2008
9. HEALTH - VACCINATION

                   Zhou et al. 2008. An economic analysis of the universal varicella vaccination program in the United States.
Study
                   Journal of Infectious Diseases, 197: s156-164
What is the
purpose of the
                   CBA of recommendation to add a routine second dose of varicella vaccine
cost benefit
analysis?
What are the
                   Routine immunization consisting of 2 doses of the vaccine versus 1 dose only versus no vaccine
policy options?
What is the
perspective?
Who has
                   US Society
standing?

                        1.   Direct costs (medical and non-medical)
What are the            2.   Societal: Direct costs + indirect effects, such as productivity changes for patients and caregivers)
main costs?

How are they       Cost of vaccination + treatment of side-effects
calculated?           •     Vaccine incl. wastage factor of 10%, administration (doctors time) + cost of treating side effects of
                            vaccine (1% of people vaccinated)
                      •     Caregiver’s travel to clinic (bus ticket and lost wages)

                   Health care costs and income loss averted due to reduced incidence of disease

                   Direct costs;
What are the
                   Health care costs associated with children or adults contracting varicella:
main
impacts/benefits   In- and outpatient care - physician costs, costs of drugs, supplies, lab tests, etc from insurance database
considered in      Costs of institutional care for patients with long-term disability (costs $100,000 annually over 50 years)
the study?
                   Indirect costs:
How are they            1. Economic value of life lost prematurely and permanent disability (discounted cost of future work
measured and                cost)
what                    2. Work time lost by adults who contract disease
methodology is
                        3. Work time lost by parents who stay home because their children contract disease
used to value
them?
                   Based on a decision tree analysis assigning probabilities to the different events
                       1. Estimation of burden of varicella disease without vaccination
                       2. … with 1 dose vaccination
                       3. …with 2 doses of vaccination
What discount
                   3%
rate is used?
                   Indicators for Cost-effectiveness/Cost-Utility Analysis (CEA/CUA) used for health interventions:
                   1. QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) often used to measure impact of a health intervention ($ per
                       QALY saved)
                       One year of life lived in perfect health is worth 1 QALY (1 Year of Life × 1 Utility = 1 QALY)
                       A year of life lived in a state of less than this perfect health is worth less than one
                   2. DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life-Years)
                       Similar to QALYs, used mainly by World Bank and WHO to compare the burden of disease in different
                       countries (number of healthy life years lost and number of years lived with disability) Cost results
                       presented as $ per DALY averted)
Other

                   Immunization study - Results presented in a variety of ways:
                   Cost-benefit – NPV, cost-benefit ratio
                   Cost-effectiveness – Cost per case prevented and per life-year saved,
                   Cost-utility - Cost per QALY saved

                   2-dose vaccination only beneficial when compared to no vaccine,
                   Costs not justified compared to 1-dose vaccination even when indirect /societal costs are included
                   negative NPV and bad benefit-cost ratio, high cost per QALY (>$100,000)
Additional Info    Class Slides – Class 11 – November 28
10. HEALTH - SMOKING
Study               Arthur D. Little International, Inc. 2000. Public Finance Balance of Smoking in the Czech Republic.
What is the
purpose of the      To compare the cost and benefits of smoking in the Czech Republic
analysis?
What are the
                    Study does not consider alternatives, just compares annual costs and benefits
policy options?
What is the
                    Czech Government
perspective?
                    Exclusive focus on financial impact of smoking - on government and government health insurance’s
Who has
standing?           budget lines
What are the        Smoking related public finance costs (from budget)
main costs?            Direct and indirect health care costs (direct – smoker, indirect – others)
                    •
                    •  Social costs related to higher morbidity
How are they
calculated?         •  Lost income tax due to early mortality
                    •  Fire induced costs
What are the        •   Savings on housing for elderly, pension & soc. expenses due to early mortality of smokers
main
                    •   Health care costs savings due to early mortality
impacts/benefits?
                    •   Customs duty , corporate income tax and VAT
How are they
measured            •   Excise tax (largest income sources)
/valued             Financial/budget costs
                    6.75%, corresponding to the interest rate on state bonds maturing in 4 years (unclear whether good rate
Discount rate?
                    or not)
                    Findings:
                    • Smoking costs the state budget less per year in health care costs, etc. than the government collects in
                       taxes and saves in retirement pensions and other government-provided services for the elderly
                    • Thus conclusion that cigarette consumption is beneficial for the Czech Republic

                    Main problems with this study:
                    •  Perspective: narrow focus on government expenditures, excludes large private/internal costs, cost to
                       private employers
                    •  No alternatives - should compare to scenario without smoking
                    •  Definition of excise taxes as a benefit (only transfer, could be levied on something else)
                    •  Unfortunate wording and presentation in general (saving money from having people die early should
                       not be presented as a positive externality)
                    •  Obvious agenda – study commissioned by Phillip Morris (80% market share in the CR) at a time when
                       two anti-tobacco bills were being discussed in Parliament, one strengthening tobacco control
                       measures and one proposing tobacco advertising restrictions

                    Other studies on smoking usually include more costs, in particular internal costs (costs borne by the
                    individual), very different results (Eg. Taylor D etal. 2004. The Price of Smoking. MIT Press):
                    ▫ Estimation of the social cost of smoking about $40 per pack of cigarettes:
Other
                    ▫ $33 private cost: borne by the individual, primarily through a substantially shortened lifespan
                    ▫ $5.50 quasi-external cost: borne by the smokers’ family through increased health costs, slightly lower
                      wages and other factors
                    ▫ $1.50 external cost: borne by society, and representing the net effect of things like taxes paid,
                      Medicaid and Medicare payments, and Social Security received

                    Studies on the cost of smoking usually fall into 2 categories
                    a) Cost-of-illness studies
                         •    Social costs of treatment, prevention and law enforcement; losses of productivity related to
                              morbidity and mortality; plus various measures of the quality of life-years lost
                         •    Usually clearly distinguish between social (external) and private (internal) costs
                         •    Individual acts rational in terms of internal costs, but external costs justify government intervention
                              (tax = external costs)
                    b) Studies based on theory of addiction
                         •    Assumes individuals underestimate their dependency and cost of reducing/eliminating addition,
                              thus possibly justifying government intervention
                         •    “Government intervention, such as tax increases, leads to less consumption of an addictive
                              substance and can help individuals to better assess eth cost of their addiction….”
                         •    > Excise tax should exceed smoking-related external costs
                    Class Slides – Class 11 – November 28
Additional Info
                    http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/the-cost-of-smoking/
11. TRANSPORTATION – SUBWAY CONSTRUCTION

                   Second Avenue Subway: Draft Environmental Impact 1999. Chapter 20. URL at:
Study
                   http://www.mta.info/capconstr/sas/documents/deis/chapter_20.pdf
                   Part of an Environmental Impact Study: Comparison of costs and benefits
What is the
purpose of the     Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) are interdisciplinary analyses of the natural, human health, and
cost benefit       socio-cultural effects which are expected to result from public and private sector actions such as
analysis?          development projects. The purpose of these studies is to comprehensively inform decision makers and the
                   affected public about both the proposed
                   4 options:
                       1. Do nothing
                       2. TSM: Small changes - Closer train spacing on Lexington Avenue line, bus priority lanes, Lower East
What are the
                           Side bus improvements
policy options?
                       3. Build alternative 1: Construction of New Upper East Side subway extension
                       4. Build alternative 2: Construction of New Upper East Side subway extension + light rail option on the
                           Lower East Side
What is the
perspective?       MTA
Who has            Standing: MTA and New York subway users
standing?
What are the
main costs?        Alternative 3 and 4: Excavation, structures, signals, power and subway cars
                   Alternative 4: in addition, light rail train structures and trains
How are they       Based on construction budgets/ previous expenditures
calculated?

                   •   Reduced Subway Crowding, Faster and More Reliable Service on 2nd Avenue line
                   •   Reduced Peak Period Crowding and Less Delay on other lines (Lines No. 4, 5, 2 and 3.)
                   •   Reduced Off-Peak Standing - more passengers being able to get a seat (on Lexington No. 6 line)
What are the
                   •   Faster and More Reliable Surface Transit Service
main
impacts/benefits
considered in      Other:
the study?         Reduced Auto and Taxi Travel
                   ▫  Car Operating Costs Avoided
How are they       ▫  Parking Costs Avoided
measured and       ▫  Taxi Fares Avoided
what               ▫  Emission Reductions (CO, NO, HC, etc.)
methodology is
                   ▫  Noise Cost Avoided
used to value
them?              ▫  Accident Cost Avoided

                   Travel time – time saved getting to and waiting for subway and time spent on subway costed using
                   average NYC wage rate (Out-of-vehicle time valued at a higher rate than in-vehicle time).
                   In addition - reduced crowding and standing – valued at % of wage rate
What discount
                   2.65% (MTA) and 7% (Federal Transportation Authority)
rate is used?
                   Not included:
Other              Traffic interruption, congestion, effect on businesses, changes in property value along subway line

Additional Info    NOT COVERED THIS SEMESTER

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Cba summary of case studies

  • 1. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS Overview of Case Studies These notes are only meant to provide a quick overview over the key points of the case studies we studied in class. For the exam you should also look again at the class slides, your notes and the original documents. 1. Chicago Summer Olympics. 2. Iraq War 3. London congestion charge 4. Chicago Child-Parent Centers Early Education 5. Three Gorges Dam, China 6. Domestic oil drilling 7. The Clean Air Act 8. Homeland Security 9. Chickenpox Vaccination 10. Smoking in the Czech Republic 11. Second Avenue Subway For the exam, ignore studies 5 and 11 (3 Gorges Dam and NYC Second Avenue Subway)
  • 2. 1. EVENTS - OLYMPICS Watkins SD, Anderson PL. The Likely Economic Impact of a Chicago 2016 Summer Olympics. AEG Working Study Paper 2009-9 What is the purpose of the Study whether hosting the Olympics in Chicago min 2016 would make economic sense cost benefit analysis? What are the Hosting the Olympics versus not hosting them policy options? What is the perspective? Both: City of Chicago Who has standing? What are the main costs? Construction of stadia and venues, advertising, catering How are they Based on budget estimates calculated? What are the main Revenues from visitors, athletes and journalists (spending on hotel, meals) impacts/benefits Tickets sales, sponsorships, advertising considered in the study? Projected number of visitor days x average spending per day How are they measured and + Multiplier effect (An increase in spending produces an increase in income and consumption greater what than the initial amount spent) methodology is used to value Calculations account for substitution effect (tourists spending money in Chicago even without Olympics) them? What discount No discounting rate is used? Problem of Exaggerated “Economic Impact” Claims: a) Substitution Effect: Additional expenditure replaces another expenditure, not truly additional, e.g., just a shifting of economic activity, e.g. instead of family going to dinner and a movie they buy tickets to an Olympic event Underestimation of SE- True economic impact: only net benefits, i.e., dollars that would have been spent somewhere else or not at all. b) Multipliers: Other Tendency to use multipliers that overstate indirect impact of an event Only dollars that are spent in the local economy count. Chain stores and restaurants – large % of profits might go to HQ elsewhere Also, “Crowding Out” Effect: Visitors who might have visited Chicago as part of a regularly planned vacation may visit another destination to avoid Olympic crowds and prices Residents might leave temporarily for the same reason Additional Info Class slides – Class 3 – September 19
  • 3. 2. IRAQ WAR Stiglitz J and L Bilmes. 2008. The Three Trillion Dollar War; The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict. WW Norton & Study Co.: New York, NY. Working paper version: http://works.bepress.com/joseph_stiglitz/10/ What is the ▫ Give an idea of the true cost of the war compared to estimates prior to the war ($1 trillion+ versus prior purpose of the estimate of $50-60 billion) cost benefit ▫ Show main budgetary costs and main economic costs analysis? ▫ Show distribution of cost over time - what are we paying for now versus what we will pay for later? What are the War versus no war policy options? What is the perspective? Financial and economic/social costs – US only Who has Iraqis have no standing standing? Financial Costs 1. Military operations – Department of Defense Expenditures 2. Future operations - Costs estimated to be proportional to the number of troops scheduled to be deployed in Iraq from 2006-2010 3. US fatalities – Death benefits paid to families of deceased soldiers 4. Veterans care – VA expenditures per case projected into the future 5. Replenishment of military to original strength What are the 6. Interest payments to support deficit financing of war – 2 scenarios – paid back within 5 years, not paid main costs? back – 4% interest rate How are they calculated? + Economic Adjustments to above (mainly to account for costs borne by other than federal government, also for market distortions) + Macroeconomic Costs 1. Increase in Price of Oil ($25 a barrel before war to $50 in 2005, 20% of that price increase assumed due to Iraq war) 2. Increase in Defense expenditures 3. Increase in Insecurity What are the main impacts/benefits Ex Ante benefits mostly not realized, not valued in the paper considered in • Supplies of oil, lower price of oil the study? • Stability in the Middle East • Gratitude of Iraqis How are they measured and • Reduction in future terrorist attacks what • Testing of military equipment (future sales) methodology is used to value them? What discount 4% , nominal , seems low, undervaluation of cost of capital rate is used? Not considered: • All costs borne by other countries Did the study • Military costs consider all • Destruction of property possible costs • Loss of life and benefits or • All costs of increased security is there something that • Increased costs of cross border flows could be • Reduced investment added? • Consequences of loss of credibility • Value of reduced capability of responding to national security threats elsewhere in the world Additional Info Class Slides – Class 8 – November 7
  • 4. 3. TRANSPORTATION – CONGESTION CHARGE Study Leape J. 2006. The London congestion charge. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20, 157-176 What is the purpose of the Compares costs and benefits of the London Congestion charge introduced in London in 2003 cost benefit analysis? What are the Charge vs. no charge policy options? What is the perspective? Who has City of London, all commuters standing? • Administrative costs What are the • Cost of operating the scheme (turned out much higher than expected) main costs? • Setup costs How are they • Traffic management costs (mainly increased bus service) calculated? Based on expenditure records What are the Time savings and reliability benefits main Reduced accidents (fewer cars) impacts/benefits Reduced CO2 emissions considered in the study? Impacts measured: • Changes in traffic entering Central London How are they measured and • Number of trips what • Number of vehicle miles driven methodology is • Number of people switching to buses used to value • Impact on average speed them? Valuation: Time saved per trip valued at wage rate, fuel cost saved at lower congestion rate What discount -- rate is used? Other Good example of charge/tax imposed to reduce an externality (congestion) Additional Info Class Slides – Class 7 - October 31
  • 5. 4. EARLY EDUCATION Reynolds AJ, Temple JA, Robertson DL, and EA Mann. 2011. Age 26 cost-benefit analysis of the Title I Study Chicago Child-Parent Centers. Child Development, January/February 2011, Volume 82, Number 1, Pages 379–404 Tries to answer the following three main questions: ▫ Does participation in the CPC program continue to demonstrate high economic benefits relative to What is the costs? purpose of the ▫ Do the estimated economic benefits differ across the three components of the program (preschool, cost benefit analysis? school-age, and extended-program participation)? ▫ Do economic benefits differ by child and family subgroups, including gender, parent education, family risk status, neighborhood poverty, and length of participation? • Children attending the CPC program What are the • Children attending the usual early childhood programs in preschool or kindergarten in the policy options? neighborhood Standing: both participants and society in general • Benefits to participants are for the child and parent attending the program (increased earnings capacity over the life course and the value to parents for the provision of part-day preschool) What is the • Benefits to the general public (averted expenditures for remedial education and child welfare perspective? spending by governments, reduced tangible and intangible expenditures to crime victims, reduced Who has standing? expenditures for mental health and substance abuse treatment, and increased tax revenues to governments associated with increased earnings) • Benefits to society: sum of benefits to program participants and the general public, including government savings. What are the • All outlays for staff, family and community support, administration, operations and maintenance, main costs? instructional materials, transportation and community services, school-wide services, school district support, capital depreciation and interest, How are they • Estimates derived from operational budgets of the Chicago Public Schools calculated? Impacts during early years of interventions difficult to quantify and monetize e.g. impacts at younger ages – social adjustment, increased ability to handle frustration, less acting out… Grades K through 12: Cost savings due to reduced rates of retention, lower need for special education classes, lower involvement in youth criminality What are the Findings at ages 19+: Significantly higher rates of high school completion, and completion of more years main of education - resulting in an increase in lifetime earnings, government tax revenue, lower crime rates impacts/benefits and costs, lower rate of substance abuse and smoking. considered in the study? Lifetime earnings and tax revenues projected based on years of education (high school dropouts vs. high How are they school graduates vs. college graduates) measured and what methodology is Overall study design: Non-randomized, quasi control group (no randomization because of ethical used to value concerns - proven effectiveness of intervention and intention to target participants most in need) them? What discount 3%, all benefits discounted to age 3 (=year 0) of the program rate is used? Extremely well funded and well-designed program, not all early education programs might show the same Other level of impact. Additional Info Class Slides – Class 9 – November 14
  • 6. 5. INFRASTRUCTURE - DAMS Morimoto R and C Hope. 2004. Applying a cost-benefit analysis model to the Three Gorges project in Study China. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 22, 205-220 What is the purpose of the CBA of Three Gorges Dam project cost benefit analysis? What are the Dam versus status quo policy options? What is the perspective? Chinese government Who has standing? Construction costs What are the Operation and maintenance main costs? How are they Valued based on original budget + high and low scenario calculated? In addition – costs of negative impacts (see there) Positive Impacts • Power generation (+switch to clean power) • Economic growth What are the • Flood control main impacts/benefits • Navigation improvement considered in the study? Negative Impacts • Displacement of huge numbers of people (most recent estimate 6 million) How are they • Submersion of vast areas of fertile farmland; measured and • Vulnerability to sabotage and earthquake what • Likely deterioration of water quality, affecting fisheries and others methodology is • Loss of a great tourist attraction and antiquities used to value them? • Sedimentation likely to reduce power generation Valuation based on estimated quantities x unit costs (for details see slides). Minimum, most likely and max scenarios and Monte Carlo analysis for all variables. What discount 5% rate is used? Other Most of the negative impacts seems undervalued Additional Info NOT COVERED THIS SEMESTER
  • 7. 6. OIL DRILLING Study Hahn R and P Passell. 2008. The economics of allowing more domestic oil drilling. AEI paper 08-21 What is the CBA of allowing drilling in two areas in the US so far not open for oil drilling - Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife purpose of the Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) cost benefit analysis? 1) Estimation of impact on US gasoline prices 2) Cost-benefit analysis What are the Drilling in ANWRA, OCS or both, compared to status quo (no drilling) policy options? What is the perspective? US/Societal perspective Who has Standing: US oil producers and consumers standing? • Producers’ oil extraction and marketing costs • Loss of “Use value” - cost of not being able to use resources for other purposes such as hunting, bird watching What are the • Loss of “Non-use value” – from perceived uniqueness of the resource main costs? How are they Production costs based on historical cost per barrel calculated? Use value – gains from land use, employment, losses from negative impacts on air and water quality, resulting losses in tourism and degradation of animal habitats For non-use value use of the contingent valuation data from the Exxon Valdez oil spill for ANWR, assumed to be $0 for OCS What are the • Revenues going to producers main • Domestic benefits to consumers associated with lower world oil prices impacts/benefits • Reduced economic costs of disruption associated with adjusting to rapid price fluctuations considered in • Reduced expenditures on oil imports leading to reduced terrorist activities /destabilizing military the study? expenditures in the Middle East (not valued in the study) How are they measured and Valuation: what Revenues ($100 a barrel x barrels sold) methodology is Assumption that domestic production will reduce prices to consumers by 10%, reduction in disruption by used to value 5%. them? What discount One year snapshot, no discounting rate is used? Study biased toward showing benefit of drilling (study by conservative think tank – American Enterprise Institute) • Use of production cost and revenue estimates at opposite ends of spectrum (400% profit margin?) • Consumer savings inconsistent with results of first part of study (which show that drilling would have Other essentially no impact on gasoline prices) • Complete undervaluation of social cost • Use of WTP (Exxon Valdez) for the non-use value…should use WTA which is much higher • No accounting for pollution/CO2 emission • Doesn’t include any value for predicted oil spill Additional Info Class Slides – Class 10 – November 19
  • 8. 7. ENVIRONMENT – CLEAN AIR ACT The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990. Executive Summary Study The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990. Appendix I. The Valuation of Health and Welfare Effects. What is the How do the overall health, welfare, ecological, and economic benefits of Clean Air Act programs purpose of the compare to the costs of these programs? cost benefit analysis? Periodic CBAs of the Clean Air Act mandated by the 1990 CAA Amendment What are the Implementation of Clean Air Act versus status quo (assumption that no air pollution controls were policy options? established beyond those in place prior to enactment of the 1970 Amendments). What is the perspective? US society Who has standing? Direct Cost: • Cost of installing, operating, and maintaining pollution abatement equipment (mainly scrubbers in smoke stacks and catalytic converters in cars). What are the • In addition, design and implementation of regulations, monitoring compliance, and investments in main costs? research and development How are they Presented as annual costs: Amortized capital costs plus operating and maintenance costs calculated? + Indirect Cost: Increased production costs > higher consumer prices > lower demand > reduced output and employment Electricity generation (prices + 2-4%, demand -3-5%), other goods (vehicles, etc.) about 1% reduction in output Observed reduction in harmful emissions (SO2, NOX, CO) leading to improved air quality leading to improved health and mortality outcomes Specific health outcomes: Reduction in incidence of asthma, bronchitis, hypertension, heart disease, What are the elevated blood lead levels leading to reductions in IQ, main impacts/benefits To get from Air Quality to Health Effects: considered in 1. Development of “Concentration-response functions” to relate outdoor concentrations of harmful the study? substances to changes in the incidence of health effects and mortality 2. Estimation of the exposure of individuals to those air pollutants How are they measured and 3. Valuation of avoided human health risk by application of estimates from the literature - unit values what per case avoided methodology is used to value Valuation: Either existing WTP or WTA estimates or Cost-of-Illlness (COI) estimates them? COI: present value (PV) costs of treating the illness over the years, as well as the PV of the stream of lost earnings related to the illness Usually COI values < WTP < WTA values since they exclude pain and suffering Lead levels: Negative effect on education level and income What discount 5%, with sensitivity analysis at 3% and 7% rate is used? Other Additional Info Class Slides – Class 10 – November 19
  • 9. 8. HOMELAND SECURITY Mueller J and MG Stewart. 2011. Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security. Study Homeland Security Affairs, Vol. 7, Article 16 (August 2011). What is the purpose of the Comparison of the cost of security measures with the benefits as tallied in lives saved and damages cost benefit averted analysis? What are the ‘Enhanced” security measures or doing nothing policy options? What is the perspective? US Who has standing? What are the main costs? Documented Increased annual expenditures on homeland security (on average +$75 billion a year) How are they calculated? What are the main impacts/ benefits Lives saved and damages averted considered in Cost based on past terrorist attacks (eg., 9/11, London subway, failed Times Square bombing) the study? What discount Comparison of 1-year expenditures to 1-year benefits, no discounting rate is used? Annual cost spent on enhanced security measure Cost per Life Saved = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fatalities averted by enhanced security measure OR Fatalities before enhanced security measure x % risk reduction due to enhanced SM Several definitions of cost-effectiveness: 1. “A security measure is cost-effective if the benefit of the measure outweighs the cost of providing the security measures” = B>C = Net Benefit >0 According to that criterion: Enhanced expenditures seem excessive “To be deemed cost-effective the security measures would have to deter, prevent, foil or protect each year against 1,667 otherwise successful attacks that inflicted some $100 million in damage (more than 4 a day) or 167 attacks inflicting $1 billion in damage (nearly one every other day) “ Other Generally accepted criterion for cost-effectiveness of security measures: 2. “Cost per life saved not exceeding $1–$10 million is typical as this provides a reasonably accurate reflection of societal considerations of risk acceptability and willingness to pay to save a life. If the annual cost per life saved exceeds $1–$10 million, such risk reduction expenditure is deemed to have failed a cost-benefit analysis and so is not cost-effective” (Viscusi) Even based on that criterion many of the security measures put in place do not qualify (exception hardened cockpit doors, passenger and crew sensitization) Problems with current Dept of Homeland Security approach: • Focus on worst case scenarios; • Addition, rather than multiplication of, the probabilities; • Assessment of relative, rather than absolute, risk; and • Inflation of terrorist capacities and the importance of potential terrorist targets Class Slides – Class 11 – November 28 Mueller J. 2008. The Quixotic Quest for Invulnerability: Assessing the Cost, Benefits, and Probabilities of Additional Info Protecting the Homeland. Prepared for presentation at the National Convention of the International Studies Association San Francisco, California March 26-29, 2008
  • 10. 9. HEALTH - VACCINATION Zhou et al. 2008. An economic analysis of the universal varicella vaccination program in the United States. Study Journal of Infectious Diseases, 197: s156-164 What is the purpose of the CBA of recommendation to add a routine second dose of varicella vaccine cost benefit analysis? What are the Routine immunization consisting of 2 doses of the vaccine versus 1 dose only versus no vaccine policy options? What is the perspective? Who has US Society standing? 1. Direct costs (medical and non-medical) What are the 2. Societal: Direct costs + indirect effects, such as productivity changes for patients and caregivers) main costs? How are they Cost of vaccination + treatment of side-effects calculated? • Vaccine incl. wastage factor of 10%, administration (doctors time) + cost of treating side effects of vaccine (1% of people vaccinated) • Caregiver’s travel to clinic (bus ticket and lost wages) Health care costs and income loss averted due to reduced incidence of disease Direct costs; What are the Health care costs associated with children or adults contracting varicella: main impacts/benefits In- and outpatient care - physician costs, costs of drugs, supplies, lab tests, etc from insurance database considered in Costs of institutional care for patients with long-term disability (costs $100,000 annually over 50 years) the study? Indirect costs: How are they 1. Economic value of life lost prematurely and permanent disability (discounted cost of future work measured and cost) what 2. Work time lost by adults who contract disease methodology is 3. Work time lost by parents who stay home because their children contract disease used to value them? Based on a decision tree analysis assigning probabilities to the different events 1. Estimation of burden of varicella disease without vaccination 2. … with 1 dose vaccination 3. …with 2 doses of vaccination What discount 3% rate is used? Indicators for Cost-effectiveness/Cost-Utility Analysis (CEA/CUA) used for health interventions: 1. QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) often used to measure impact of a health intervention ($ per QALY saved) One year of life lived in perfect health is worth 1 QALY (1 Year of Life × 1 Utility = 1 QALY) A year of life lived in a state of less than this perfect health is worth less than one 2. DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life-Years) Similar to QALYs, used mainly by World Bank and WHO to compare the burden of disease in different countries (number of healthy life years lost and number of years lived with disability) Cost results presented as $ per DALY averted) Other Immunization study - Results presented in a variety of ways: Cost-benefit – NPV, cost-benefit ratio Cost-effectiveness – Cost per case prevented and per life-year saved, Cost-utility - Cost per QALY saved 2-dose vaccination only beneficial when compared to no vaccine, Costs not justified compared to 1-dose vaccination even when indirect /societal costs are included negative NPV and bad benefit-cost ratio, high cost per QALY (>$100,000) Additional Info Class Slides – Class 11 – November 28
  • 11. 10. HEALTH - SMOKING Study Arthur D. Little International, Inc. 2000. Public Finance Balance of Smoking in the Czech Republic. What is the purpose of the To compare the cost and benefits of smoking in the Czech Republic analysis? What are the Study does not consider alternatives, just compares annual costs and benefits policy options? What is the Czech Government perspective? Exclusive focus on financial impact of smoking - on government and government health insurance’s Who has standing? budget lines What are the Smoking related public finance costs (from budget) main costs? Direct and indirect health care costs (direct – smoker, indirect – others) • • Social costs related to higher morbidity How are they calculated? • Lost income tax due to early mortality • Fire induced costs What are the • Savings on housing for elderly, pension & soc. expenses due to early mortality of smokers main • Health care costs savings due to early mortality impacts/benefits? • Customs duty , corporate income tax and VAT How are they measured • Excise tax (largest income sources) /valued Financial/budget costs 6.75%, corresponding to the interest rate on state bonds maturing in 4 years (unclear whether good rate Discount rate? or not) Findings: • Smoking costs the state budget less per year in health care costs, etc. than the government collects in taxes and saves in retirement pensions and other government-provided services for the elderly • Thus conclusion that cigarette consumption is beneficial for the Czech Republic Main problems with this study: • Perspective: narrow focus on government expenditures, excludes large private/internal costs, cost to private employers • No alternatives - should compare to scenario without smoking • Definition of excise taxes as a benefit (only transfer, could be levied on something else) • Unfortunate wording and presentation in general (saving money from having people die early should not be presented as a positive externality) • Obvious agenda – study commissioned by Phillip Morris (80% market share in the CR) at a time when two anti-tobacco bills were being discussed in Parliament, one strengthening tobacco control measures and one proposing tobacco advertising restrictions Other studies on smoking usually include more costs, in particular internal costs (costs borne by the individual), very different results (Eg. Taylor D etal. 2004. The Price of Smoking. MIT Press): ▫ Estimation of the social cost of smoking about $40 per pack of cigarettes: Other ▫ $33 private cost: borne by the individual, primarily through a substantially shortened lifespan ▫ $5.50 quasi-external cost: borne by the smokers’ family through increased health costs, slightly lower wages and other factors ▫ $1.50 external cost: borne by society, and representing the net effect of things like taxes paid, Medicaid and Medicare payments, and Social Security received Studies on the cost of smoking usually fall into 2 categories a) Cost-of-illness studies • Social costs of treatment, prevention and law enforcement; losses of productivity related to morbidity and mortality; plus various measures of the quality of life-years lost • Usually clearly distinguish between social (external) and private (internal) costs • Individual acts rational in terms of internal costs, but external costs justify government intervention (tax = external costs) b) Studies based on theory of addiction • Assumes individuals underestimate their dependency and cost of reducing/eliminating addition, thus possibly justifying government intervention • “Government intervention, such as tax increases, leads to less consumption of an addictive substance and can help individuals to better assess eth cost of their addiction….” • > Excise tax should exceed smoking-related external costs Class Slides – Class 11 – November 28 Additional Info http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/the-cost-of-smoking/
  • 12. 11. TRANSPORTATION – SUBWAY CONSTRUCTION Second Avenue Subway: Draft Environmental Impact 1999. Chapter 20. URL at: Study http://www.mta.info/capconstr/sas/documents/deis/chapter_20.pdf Part of an Environmental Impact Study: Comparison of costs and benefits What is the purpose of the Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) are interdisciplinary analyses of the natural, human health, and cost benefit socio-cultural effects which are expected to result from public and private sector actions such as analysis? development projects. The purpose of these studies is to comprehensively inform decision makers and the affected public about both the proposed 4 options: 1. Do nothing 2. TSM: Small changes - Closer train spacing on Lexington Avenue line, bus priority lanes, Lower East What are the Side bus improvements policy options? 3. Build alternative 1: Construction of New Upper East Side subway extension 4. Build alternative 2: Construction of New Upper East Side subway extension + light rail option on the Lower East Side What is the perspective? MTA Who has Standing: MTA and New York subway users standing? What are the main costs? Alternative 3 and 4: Excavation, structures, signals, power and subway cars Alternative 4: in addition, light rail train structures and trains How are they Based on construction budgets/ previous expenditures calculated? • Reduced Subway Crowding, Faster and More Reliable Service on 2nd Avenue line • Reduced Peak Period Crowding and Less Delay on other lines (Lines No. 4, 5, 2 and 3.) • Reduced Off-Peak Standing - more passengers being able to get a seat (on Lexington No. 6 line) What are the • Faster and More Reliable Surface Transit Service main impacts/benefits considered in Other: the study? Reduced Auto and Taxi Travel ▫ Car Operating Costs Avoided How are they ▫ Parking Costs Avoided measured and ▫ Taxi Fares Avoided what ▫ Emission Reductions (CO, NO, HC, etc.) methodology is ▫ Noise Cost Avoided used to value them? ▫ Accident Cost Avoided Travel time – time saved getting to and waiting for subway and time spent on subway costed using average NYC wage rate (Out-of-vehicle time valued at a higher rate than in-vehicle time). In addition - reduced crowding and standing – valued at % of wage rate What discount 2.65% (MTA) and 7% (Federal Transportation Authority) rate is used? Not included: Other Traffic interruption, congestion, effect on businesses, changes in property value along subway line Additional Info NOT COVERED THIS SEMESTER