Managing Sustainability in a Changing ClimatePresentation Transcript
“ Never have so few asked so much of so many” Presented by Chris Walker St. John’s University November 17, 2009 Managing Sustainability in a changing climate
The depressing field of climatology and the imperative to act
So much …
The magnitude of the problem
The magnitude of the solution
Of so many…
What is being done…?
The need for US leadership - Where is the US going, anticipation for US national action
Outlook for Copenhagen
China and India
Examples of corporate action
Investment, growth potential
One year ago…so 2008…. Politics has shifted - not if but when on carbon constraints in the US and globally
Imperatives driving action:
Climate Science (we can not afford to wait);
Growth in emissions – deep cuts required … 80% in Developed nations; 60% Global emissions by 2050.
Political Process - More policies are in place – but the gap remains large with what needs to be done
Domestic – sea change from Bush to Obama;
Int’l - need for a s uccessor to Kyoto to be negotiated in Copenhagen in December 2009
Climate Change and NYC Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA)
Asked so much -
Economics - The Magnitude of the Problem
Emissions intensity of world economy (per unit gross global product, GGP) needs to be 75% lower by mid-century
Costs of Inaction – Business as Usual: Decrease of 5-20% in consumption income over the next 50 years.
Cost of Action – 550 parts per million CO2: 1% of annual global GDP for the next 50 years.
“ Climate Change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure the world has ever seen” - Nicholas Stern Comparables % of global GDP 2005 Total cost of abatement* % of global GDP 2030 0.5 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.0 450 ppm 400 ppm 550 ppm Defence spending Insurance spending Oil price increase (USD +30/bbl) Global foreign Aid
2055 2005 14 7 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 1955 0 Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9 2105 14 GtC/y 7 GtC/y Seven “wedges” - A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. Magnitude of the Sol ution O Socolow & Pacala: Stabilization Wedges
Energy Efficiency Decarbonized Electricity Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity Forests & Soils Decarbonized Fuels Stabilization Triangle 2004 2054 7 GtC/y 14 GtC/y Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges Methane Management Magnitude of the Solution
The Carbon Cost Curve or what do we do first... Slide
Greenhouse Gas emissions by sector
Of the Many
State Emissions Are Significant … Based on 2001 emissions China in 07
What will US Congress do?
The Senate is the key power in the climate debate…
Pass domestic legislation - House majority + 60 Senators
Ratify international agreements – 67 Senators
Proxy = Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008 : Vote to proceed by State (Blue : Yea-Yea, Red: Nay-Nay; Gray: Yea-Nay)
Managing Expectations on the Road to Copenhagen
Largest CO2 emittors
Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions
Managing the problem….
The reaction….Business is:
Speaking Out – US CAP (Fortune 500 call for US legislation
Business Council Survey: 40% CEOs believe global warming may be most serious policy challenge
Acting –Companies servicing low carbon economy revenue hit $300bn last year according to HSBC Climate Index
Google launched ‘Google RE<C initiative to develop clean, alternative sources of energy (stands for ‘Renewable Energy Cheaper than Coal’)
Carbon Down Profits Up – 33 companies have documented financial benefits totally US$9.3 billion
You know its serious when the Lawyers and Accountants get involved…..
There are now an estimated 2,340 lobbyists on climate change – an Increase of more than 300% in five years.
Climate as a corporate board risk management issue
Reporting - “material events and uncertainties”
Shareholder resolutions about carbon disclosure
The Insurance Industry: Natural catastrophe losses have increased Insured losses 1970-2008 (Property and business interruption losses)
Slide High Density = 210 Rooftops Residential Flood Cover Freeport (13,819) 2705 policies Rockville Centre (9,421) 104 policies Baldwin (2,718) 19 policies Concentration of Risk source: NHC, Google earth Natural catastrophe losses have increased
Tesla Motors Energy Innovations Amyris Biotechnologies Pacific Ethanol Nanosolar Nanosys Microsoft Sun Microsystems Google eBay PayPal Hewlett Packard The Greening of Silicon Valley Information Technology - 1990’s Green Technology - 2008
Global New Clean Energy Investment Source: New Energy Finance
Global Carbon Trading Markets
If we don’t act we will need to adapt….if possible