0
ZSL Science and Conservation Events
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture
A very dangerous experiment with our pla...
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Brian Hoskins
Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial Colleg...
Carbon Dioxide Measurements over the past year
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Carbon Dioxide Measurements since 1957
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y
proxy
for temp
methane
carbon
dioxide
nitrous
oxide
today
time
IPCC 2007
The Energy Budget of the Earth
341 Wm-2
(water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,…
Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861)
The Energy Budget of the Earth
The Greenhouse Eff...
Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
We can be very confident that this rise in carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is due to the...
Estimated causes of the current imbalance
in the energy budget of Planet Earth
IPCC 2007
Global temperature
Global temperatures and 20 year running average
20-year
Running average
°C
Other evidence of a warming climate
Global
sea level
Satellite 1991-
National Snow & Ice Data Center
1979-2000
average
Sep...
Natural &
anthropogenic forcings
14 models
58 simulations
Natural forcings only
5 models
19 simulations
Evaluation of clim...
Increase in
solar flux
Increase in
long-lived GHGs
Mean Temperature changes in models for changed conditions
height
latitu...
Projections: globally averaged surface Temperature
IPCC 2007
Projected changes for end of century – unconstrained emissions
Dec –Feb Temperature Dec –Feb precipitation
Decadal Temperature trends at end of 21st century (A1B)
Ed Hawkins
Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003
(mean of 4 stations) Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336
2010 Russian Heat Wave Bar...
Cold winter extremes of the past few years
Winter 2009/10
Eurasian cold
16 Nov- 25 Dec
2010
Dec 2010
Record cold in UK
Acidification of the ocean:
Estimated change in oceanic pH since 1700
Some other Global Environmental Problems
associated ...
/
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
BAS Column ozone measurements 1956-2007 Satellite views of ozone hole 1996-2012
Future low-level Ozone
concentration – 2090s
60-80 ppb
100-120
Vitousek (1994)
Sulphur deposition risen by 2-3
Aerosols: t...
Drivers of Change in Biodiversity & Ecosystems
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The anthropogenic climate change problem
The impacts derived from climate models are what are likely to occur if we are lu...
Tackling the climate change problem
By continuing to emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
we are performing a very dang...
Mitigation
UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008)
• Commitment for at least 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050
•...
Mitigation: UK Climate Change Committee
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
GtCO2e
Year
2016:4%
2016:3%low
...
The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
Concluding Comments
A dangerous experiment:
By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a large risk
that c...
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Brian Hoskins
Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial Colleg...
Past climate variation on 50K and 5K time-scales:
Greenland ice accumulation rate
Jacobsen et al 2000
B1
A1B
A2
2011-30 2046-65 2080-99
Surface T projections for different periods and scenarios
IPCC 2003
“Geo-engineering” suggestions
Solar Radiation
Top of
Atmosphere
Surface
Aerosol
Scattering
Cloud Albedo
Solar Interceptor
...
CCC (2012): the 5-year budgets
& international aviation & shipping
CCC (2011): achieving the 2050 target
The Global Energy Budget
Greenhouse gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone…
Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861),…
Global temperature
Some Feedbacks in the Climate System
Heat loss
To space Water
vapour
Snow & ice
High cloud
Low cloud
Carbon
flux
The atmos...
Projections: globally averaged surface warming
IPCC 2007
Different scenarios
Projected temperature in 80 years time
2060-99 (SRESA1B) – 1960-99 (20C3M)
Winter 850hPa zonal wind change
T. Woollings 2010
The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
food, holidays
low C products
Solar, wind
walk/cycle, train/bus
efficient cars
turn it off,...
UK Climate Change Committee
• 50:50 chance of global temperature not rising much more than 2°C
• Very small chance of risi...
Achieving targets: sensitivity to parameters
Warmest
day
UKCP09: Change in summer temperatures in 2080s
Mean
10% 50% 90%
UKCP09: Change in summer precipitation in 2080s
Mean
Wettest
day
10% 50% 90%
ZSL Science and Conservation Events
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture
A very dangerous experiment with our pla...
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
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  1. 1. ZSL Science and Conservation Events Tuesday 18 June 2013 Stamford Raffles Lecture A very dangerous experiment with our planet Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College London
  2. 2. A very dangerous experiment with our planet Brian Hoskins Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
  3. 3. Carbon Dioxide Measurements over the past year Mauna Loa, Hawaii
  4. 4. Carbon Dioxide Measurements since 1957 Mauna Loa, Hawaii
  5. 5. Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y proxy for temp methane carbon dioxide nitrous oxide today time IPCC 2007
  6. 6. The Energy Budget of the Earth 341 Wm-2
  7. 7. (water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861) The Energy Budget of the Earth The Greenhouse Effect 341 Wm-2 396 333
  8. 8. Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere We can be very confident that this rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to the activities of humans land use change emissions of greenhouse gases, principally by burning coal, oil & gas If 100t of carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere atmospheric content will be 40t greater after 20 years 35t greater after 100 years 25t greater after 1000 years
  9. 9. Estimated causes of the current imbalance in the energy budget of Planet Earth IPCC 2007
  10. 10. Global temperature
  11. 11. Global temperatures and 20 year running average 20-year Running average °C
  12. 12. Other evidence of a warming climate Global sea level Satellite 1991- National Snow & Ice Data Center 1979-2000 average September 2012 Arctic sea ice
  13. 13. Natural & anthropogenic forcings 14 models 58 simulations Natural forcings only 5 models 19 simulations Evaluation of climate models on 20th century climate Annual precipitation Observation Average of all models
  14. 14. Increase in solar flux Increase in long-lived GHGs Mean Temperature changes in models for changed conditions height latitude IPCC AR4 WGp1 Ch8
  15. 15. Projections: globally averaged surface Temperature IPCC 2007
  16. 16. Projected changes for end of century – unconstrained emissions Dec –Feb Temperature Dec –Feb precipitation
  17. 17. Decadal Temperature trends at end of 21st century (A1B) Ed Hawkins
  18. 18. Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003 (mean of 4 stations) Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336 2010 Russian Heat Wave Barriopedro 2011 Frequency of occurrence of local T anomalies/local standard deviation of T Hansen et al 2012 Extreme Summer Heat in the Past Decade 2012 US summer Temperature ºF Rain %
  19. 19. Cold winter extremes of the past few years Winter 2009/10 Eurasian cold 16 Nov- 25 Dec 2010 Dec 2010 Record cold in UK
  20. 20. Acidification of the ocean: Estimated change in oceanic pH since 1700 Some other Global Environmental Problems associated with Human Activity
  21. 21. / Stratospheric Ozone Depletion BAS Column ozone measurements 1956-2007 Satellite views of ozone hole 1996-2012
  22. 22. Future low-level Ozone concentration – 2090s 60-80 ppb 100-120 Vitousek (1994) Sulphur deposition risen by 2-3 Aerosols: the Asian Brown Cloud
  23. 23. Drivers of Change in Biodiversity & Ecosystems Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  24. 24. The anthropogenic climate change problem The impacts derived from climate models are what are likely to occur if we are lucky - increasing chance of crossing thresholds in the climate &/or natural or social systems Context: growing world population need for development changing diet increased demand for food, water & energy other global environmental changes Impacts: water supply flooding ecosystems agriculture coastal erosion & flooding health ecosystems “Climate Disruption” rather than “Global Warming”
  25. 25. Tackling the climate change problem By continuing to emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are performing a very dangerous experiment with planet Earth. 1. Adapt 2. Do something else to compensate: remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere reduce the sun’s energy reaching us 3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation What can we do?
  26. 26. Mitigation UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008) • Commitment for at least 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 • Established system of legally binding 5-year “carbon budgets” • Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to advise, monitor & report International UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol, Conference of the Parties, …Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha…. Pledged: make 2015 agreement to start in 2020 EU 20% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2020, 30/40% by 2030? 2050 objective 80-95% Many state or national targets e.g. China
  27. 27. Mitigation: UK Climate Change Committee 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 GtCO2e Year 2016:4% 2016:3%low 2016:3%high 2016:1.5% A1B 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 °Cabovepre-industrial Year 2016:4%low 90th percentile central model estimate 10th pecentile 2 Criteria: 50:50 chance of not getting much above 2ºC negligible chance of getting to 4ºC Global 50% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050: 2.1-2.6 t CO2e per person In UK: 80% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050 -enshrined in UK law
  28. 28. The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
  29. 29. Concluding Comments A dangerous experiment: By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a large risk that climate change may make life very difficult for our species & others Uncertainties in likely changes in local and regional climate change & in how the natural world will cope with a changing climate lead to many questions for those concerned with the future of the natural world. Mitigation of climate change to levels that significantly reduce the risk are possible and are likely to be beneficial in many other respects.
  30. 30. A very dangerous experiment with our planet Brian Hoskins Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
  31. 31. Past climate variation on 50K and 5K time-scales: Greenland ice accumulation rate Jacobsen et al 2000
  32. 32. B1 A1B A2 2011-30 2046-65 2080-99 Surface T projections for different periods and scenarios IPCC 2003
  33. 33. “Geo-engineering” suggestions Solar Radiation Top of Atmosphere Surface Aerosol Scattering Cloud Albedo Solar Interceptor Grassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo Level 1 – Space Level 2 – Stratosphere Level 3 – Troposphere Level 4 - Surface 2. Solar Radiation Management: reduce solar energy at surface 1. Carbon Dioxide Removal: remove from the atmosphere fertilise the ocean artificial trees, land surface treatment Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility?
  34. 34. CCC (2012): the 5-year budgets & international aviation & shipping
  35. 35. CCC (2011): achieving the 2050 target
  36. 36. The Global Energy Budget Greenhouse gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861),…
  37. 37. Global temperature
  38. 38. Some Feedbacks in the Climate System Heat loss To space Water vapour Snow & ice High cloud Low cloud Carbon flux The atmosphere and oceans are fluids that move and interact
  39. 39. Projections: globally averaged surface warming IPCC 2007 Different scenarios
  40. 40. Projected temperature in 80 years time
  41. 41. 2060-99 (SRESA1B) – 1960-99 (20C3M) Winter 850hPa zonal wind change T. Woollings 2010
  42. 42. The UK 80% Reduction Challenge food, holidays low C products Solar, wind walk/cycle, train/bus efficient cars turn it off, use of water efficient boiler, fridge, TV, etc insulation, solar hot water minimise waste & recycle
  43. 43. UK Climate Change Committee • 50:50 chance of global temperature not rising much more than 2°C • Very small chance of rising 4°C Global 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050: just over 2t per person per year In UK: 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 Used 2 criteria for global greenhouse gas emissions
  44. 44. Achieving targets: sensitivity to parameters
  45. 45. Warmest day UKCP09: Change in summer temperatures in 2080s Mean 10% 50% 90%
  46. 46. UKCP09: Change in summer precipitation in 2080s Mean Wettest day 10% 50% 90%
  47. 47. ZSL Science and Conservation Events Tuesday 18 June 2013 Stamford Raffles Lecture A very dangerous experiment with our planet Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College London
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