Electric Vehicle (V2G) Report 2010 - Smart Grid Insights - Zpryme & ZigBee Alliance

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This V2G report by Zpryme:
| Begins with a global perspective and progresses into high-growth markets
such as US, China, Japan, Germany, UK, South Korea, and Denmark
| Delves into drivers and trends such as Smart Grid and charging station
deployments, renewable energy policy, rising energy costs, auto
manufacturer financial viability pressures, universal standard adoption,
telematics, and brand loyalty
| Explores the role of the battery space, rising cost of fossil fuels, and the
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
| Discloses the actionable insights and opportunities to capitalize and
prepare for the V2G market in both the short and long term
| Concludes with commentary from the experts in V2G: University of
Delaware, Austin Energy, Plug in America, Ford Motor Company,
Grid2Home, Electrification Coalition, Coulomb Technologies, Smart Grid
Library and ZigBee Alliance

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Electric Vehicle (V2G) Report 2010 - Smart Grid Insights - Zpryme & ZigBee Alliance

  1. 1. Smart Grid Insights: V2G This V2G report by Zpryme:  Begins with a global perspective and progresses into high-growth markets such as US, China, Japan, Germany, UK, South Korea, and Denmark  Delves into drivers and trends such as Smart Grid and charging station deployments, renewable energy policy, rising energy costs, auto manufacturer financial viability pressures, universal standard adoption, telematics, and brand loyalty  Explores the role of the battery space, rising cost of fossil fuels, and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill  Discloses the actionable insights and opportunities to capitalize and prepare for the V2G market in both the short and long term  Concludes with commentary from the experts in V2G: University of Delaware, Austin Energy, Plug in America, Ford Motor Company, Grid2Home, Electrification Coalition, Coulomb Technologies, Smart Grid Library and ZigBee Alliance This issue proudly sponsored by: Page | 1 July 2010 Business & Consumer Insights Have Evolved. | www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org
  2. 2. Zpryme and ZigBee would like to Zpryme would like to extend the kindest regards to the following extend the kindest regards to the organizations that contributed to this issue of Smart Grid Insights: following organizations that contributed to this issue of Smart Grid Insights: Learn more @ ZigBee Alliance | zigbee.org University of Delaware | udel.edu/V2G Austin Energy | austinenergy.org Ford Motor Company| ford.com Coulomb Technologies| coulombtech.com Electrification Coalition | electrificationcoalition.com.org Grid2Home | grid2home.com Plug in America | pluginamerica.org Smart Grid Library | smartgridlibrary.com
  3. 3. ― … [EV breeding Dear Executives, While BP, government leaders, and Hollywood luminaries such as James Cameron and Kevin Costner have all played a role in finally putting a cap on all three valves in the Gulf of Mexico well Zpryme was sifting through the overwhelming feedback for this month‘s issue. Thank you for the candid outreach - more than half of the requests for this month‘s topic were related to automotive and the ongoing grounds] like China and message to shift away from our dependency on fossil fuels; thus it was a natural choice for our firm to select V2G. Also, our current members might have noticed that we did not have an April, May, or June issue; this was for good reason as we South Korea will have a bundled April, May, June, and July to make this one of the most comprehensive report on V2G that‘s available to the public. major piece of V2G – as will [automotive Why V2G? Swelling demand for electric vehicles bundled with environmental conservation and energy efficiency will mean a robust car industry for decades to come. Emerging [EV breeding grounds] like China and South Korea will have a major piece of V2G – as will [automotive nerve centers] such as the US, UK, Denmark, Germany, and Japan. That‘s why it‘s imperative that even at its infancy stage preparation should be made for the next generation of smart vehicles, V2G. nerve centers] such as Who will produce vehicles that connect to the Smart Grid that consumers will love? Is the development of charging stations growing at the same pace as V2G the US, UK, Denmark, technology? What members of the Smart Grid ecosystem will get involved to make V2G a reality? What V2G standards will be in place? These questions will help form the auto industry of tomorrow and the energy leaders of today. For Germany, and Japan. now, leadership from experts such as Dr. Willett Kempton and his team at University of Delaware, Coulomb Technologies and the ZigBee Alliance are rising to the challenge to take proactive steps to answer these questions. In brief, 2010 will be a landmark year for next-gen autos and the Smart Grid. Please feel free to email Zpryme your feedback, comments, and suggestions about this month or upcoming issues to smart.grid@zpryme.com. Kind Regards, Jason S. Rodriguez CEO & Director of Research Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC
  4. 4. Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................ 1 Background & Scope .................................................................................................... 6 V2G Concept ............................................................................................................. 8 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 9 V2G: Marketplace ...................................................................................................... 12 V2G Factsheet ......................................................................................................... 13 Global Market......................................................................................................... 14 Vehicle Unit Forecast.............................................................................. 15 Vehicle Market Forecast ........................................................................ 16 Infrastructure Forecast............................................................................ 17 Technology Forecast .............................................................................. 18 Revenue Forecast ................................................................................... 19 Global V2G Summary ........................................................................... 20 US Market ................................................................................................................ 24 China Market ........................................................................................................... 27 Japan Market .......................................................................................................... 30 Germany Market .................................................................................................... 33 UK Market ................................................................................................................ 36 South Korea Market ............................................................................................... 39 Denmark Market ..................................................................................................... 42 V2G: A Closer Look .................................................................................................... 45 Drivers ....................................................................................................................... 46 Trends........................................................................................................................ 49 The Battery Space .................................................................................................. 51 Insights....................................................................................................................... 51 Opportunities........................................................................................................... 52 Experts Plug-in ............................................................................................................. 54 University of Delaware ......................................................................................... 55 Austin Energy ........................................................................................................... 57 Smartgridlibrary.com............................................................................................. 58 Plug In America ....................................................................................................... 59 Electrification Coalition .......................................................................................... 60 Coulomb Technologies ........................................................................................... 62 Ford Motor Company & Grid2Home ................................................................. 63 ZigBee Alliance ....................................................................................................... 64
  5. 5. | Executive Summary
  6. 6. V2G Marketplace Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Executive Summary they pay to charge the battery. The consumer-reward model will play a major role in the aggressive development of V2G. At the helm of The BP Gulf oil spill has confirmed that the global electric vehicle V2G (and often referred to as the Father of the Vehicle-To-Grid) is Dr. revolution is upon us. In a recent June article by the Baltimore Sun, (US) Willett Kempton and his team of graduate students at The University of Brad Heavner State Director at Environment Maryland affirmed, "the Delaware where they are focused on making this automotive catastrophe of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is making it more technology a mainstream reality. V2G is still is in its infancy stage, clear than ever that we need to work harder to reduce our however because of the strides made by Dr. Kempton and his team it is dependence on oil … the US Senate must pass a comprehensive global increasing its footprint in the US and even Europe. "Ten years ago, this warming bill that caps emissions and invests in clean energy options, was just a plan. Today, it's a real project and in ten years, we'll be including electric vehicle technology." Similar sentiment was echoed by producing tens of megawatts of power this way," said Dr. Kempton, Loyola de Palacio, Vice-President of the European Commission and back in February of this year at the annual meeting of the American Commissioner responsible for energy and transport, ―during the next Association for the Advancement of Science.1 few decades, the dependency on imported energy sources into the EU will increase substantially and it is likely that the flow of this energy will So how can the automotive, power, and technology industries get closer increasingly depend on the political and economic stability of the oil to engaging the V2G model? V2G is in an early stage, which means and gas producing regions.‖ companies such as auto, Smart Grid technology integrators and telematic manufacturers can prepare themselves for market entry by EVs are becoming increasingly more marketable, because they appeal closely monitoring government legislation, standards, Smart Grid and to a wide spectrum of consumers. There will be more drivers in the charging station rollouts, and security. market for electric cars in the next two years than the projected supply from production lines, according to results from a poll by Ernst & Young. The V2G marketplace is positioned for explosive growth as consumers More than 25% of the 4,000 drivers surveyed across the US, Europe, refine their relationship with their vehicle and manufacturers become China and Japan said they would consider buying an electric vehicle. creative with application of Smart Grid technologies within vehicles. As more charging stations roll out automakers from Nissan to GM to Tesla There are many types of consumers considering purchasing an EV: the will prepare for production of more EVs, inevitably setting the V2G environmentally conscience who value zero emissions and alternative stage. fuel sources, the economically driven who are attracted to minimal vehicle depreciation and fuel savings, and movers-and-shakers who are V2G Marketplace (projections developed by Zpryme) drawn to the immersive in-car experience and stylish exterior. Collectively, these are the same consumers that will be owners and evangelists for the next generation of vehicles, V2G (Vehicle to the 1.056 million (V2G Units) Grid). V2G Units: From 2015 to 2020, global V2G vehicle unit sales are What is V2G? A V2G vehicle is one that can connect, communicate, and projected to grow from 103,900 to 1.06 million, respectively. The sell demand response services to the grid. As a result, consumers will V2G vehicle unit sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from become independent of the gas pump while receiving financial 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 59.0 percent. compensation for their actions. To help lay this groundwork for V2G, Delaware (US) passed a law in 2009 requiring utilities to compensate electric car owners for power sent back to the grid at the same rate 1 Discover News, New Electric Car Pays For Itself, Karin Zeitvogel, February 19, 2010 Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 1 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  7. 7. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Smart Grid deployments, renewable energy policy, rising energy costs, $26.6 billion (V2G Vehicle Market Value) consumer and business environmental awareness, green stimulus packages, a reduction in the price for V2G vehicles, strong HEV/PHEV demand, auto manufacturer financial viability pressures, and a move V2G Vehicle Market Value: From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G towards universal standard adoption. V2G trends will be motivated by vehicle market value is projected to grow from $3.2 billion to $26.6 telematics, brand loyalty, charging station deployments, and the billion, respectively. The V2G vehicle market value CAGR from 2015 ongoing rollout of the Smart Grid. Collectively, these factors will be the to 2020 is projected to be 53.1 percent. gel that will shape V2G consumer adoption and encourage new entrants to compete in this space. $6.7 billion (V2G Infrastructure Market Value) The Battery Space For the automotive industry, securing access to high-quality, cost- V2G Infrastructure Market Value: From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G effective rechargeable batteries that inspire consumer confidence in infrastructure market is projected to grow from $659.9 million to $6.7 ‗range anxiety‘ is crucial for future success in the V2G arena.2 billion, respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 58.9 percent. Insights and Opportunities  For the next five years the market for residential charging $10.5 billion (V2G Technology Market Value) stations will provide a greater opportunity than commercial charging stations  Japan's current leadership in the EV space will position the V2G Technology Market Value: From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G nation to pioneer the next generation of V2G for the technology market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion to $10.5 mainstream consumer billion, respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from  The hardware/software industry is relatively untapped in the 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 46.8 percent. V2G space, but companies such as AC Propulsion and Azure Dynamics are two that have established footprints in this $2.9 billion (V2G Total Revenue)  industry Environmental catastrophes such as the BP oil spill are playing a significant role in how consumers will gradually minimize their V2G Total Revenue: From 2015 to 2020, global V2G grid revenues fossil fuel dependency are projected to grow from $284.4 million to $2.9 billion,  Currently, there are only a small handful of players developing respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to V2G hardware and software, leaving this space easily 2020 is projected to be 63.5 percent. accessible for new entrants and partnerships Drivers and Trends V2G technology advancement and adoption will be driven by global 2Wall Street Journal; Toshiba, Mitsubishi Motors Developing Electric Car Batteries; Juro Osawa and Yoshio Takahashi, July 2, 2010. Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 2 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  8. 8. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in ― ― Experts Plug-in: Quotes Worth Noting University of Delaware Electrification Coalition Business models for how to use this colossal The biggest challenge for V2G applications is energy storage resource practically and getting cars on the road and making sure they ― profitably will be coming up like mushrooms meet consumers’ needs.. ― after the rain. Coulomb Technologies Austin Energy Our market is limited now to people who will Austin Energy predicts that they may have up buy stations in anticipation of the cars… that to 30,000 PHEVs in 2015 and 190,000 in problem will be gone in a year and it will be ― ― 2020. all about how fast we can scale. Smart Grid Library Ford Motor Company & Grid2Home When an EV fulfills transport and mobile The biggest challenge for the industry will be to storage functions, its value as an owner asset ensure interoperability between ― appreciates enormously. independently developed and supplied equipment. in t ― Plug In America There are no natural incentives for automakers ZigBee Alliance to initiate V2G… incentives must be created.. The advent of grid-enabled vehicles extends the control consumers have over their energy usage, and provide one of the biggest bang- for-buck impacts on the environment. Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 3 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  9. 9. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in V2G Share of Global Vehicle Annual Sales, 2020* V2G Share of Global Vehicle Annual Sales, 2015* Global Vehicle Unit Sales = 81.2 million Global Vehicle Unit Sales = 89.4 million 60 70 30 40 50 0 80 90 50 60 70 20 0 10 0 40 80 8 1 . 2 M 30 90 20 ― V2G Vehicle Share of Global Vehicle Market 0.1% V2G Vehicle Share of Global Vehicle Market, Global Share of All Vehicle Types, 99.9% 10 Although V2G vehicles are expected to see strong growth from 2015 to 2020, these next-gen autos will [only account for 1.2%] or 8 9 . 4 M [12 out of 1,000 vehicles] of the global vehicle market space by 2020. V2G Vehicle Share ofof Global Vehicle Market, 1.2% V2G Vehicle Share Global Vehicle Market Zpryme Global Share of All Vehicle Types, 98.8% *Source: Global V2G forecast by Zpryme; global automotive forecast by A.T. Kearney Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 4 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  10. 10. s | Background & Scope Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 5 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  11. 11. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Background & Scope fluctuates at a much faster ramp rates than any existing generation. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Definition  Provide electrical storage to allow increased use of intermittent renewable energies such as wind power and photovoltaics. Up The following definition of V2G has been taken from Mid-Atlantic Grid to a certain percentage of generation, the fluctuations of wind Interactive Cars Consortium (MAGICC), a research partnership between and solar are handled by today‘s grid management. To University of Delaware, Pepco Holding, Inc., PJM Interconnect, displace large fractions of fossil generation, electrical storage Comverge, Inc., and the Atlantic County Utilities, Authority (ACUA). will be needed. Fleets of V2G-capable vehicles constitute such a system, capable of holding MWs of electricity for later use. V2G technology utilizes the stored energy in electric vehicle batteries to contribute electricity back to the grid when the grid operators Elements needed for V2G request it. Revenue from V2G will reduce the customer cost of electric vehicles; it will also increase the efficiency and reliability of the existing  A plug-in car - Either a plug-in hybrid or pure electric will work. grid today by decreasing petroleum use and creating a much larger The economic value of V2G is proportional to kW capacity of share of intermittent renewable energies such as wind and solar in the the power plug. future. V2G allows electric-gasoline hybrids or fully-electric vehicles to provide power back to the grid. Electric-drive vehicles, whether  Control Signal from the electric grid - In most areas of the US, powered by batteries, fuel cells, or gasoline hybrids, contain the the Independent System Operator (ISO) provides an electronic energy source and power electronics capable of producing the 50 Hz signal to request frequency regulation, reserves, and other or 60 Hz AC electricity to power our homes and offices. The key to forms of fast-response, high value power. Additionally, a local realizing economic value from V2G is making the power available utility may want to signal for other V2G services, such as peak without compromising the driving requirements of a single vehicle load shedding or relief on targeted parts of the distribution owner, yet meeting the time- critical "dispatch" needed by the electric system. distribution system.  Computing to mediate driver and grid needs - There must be Using V2G technology, the cost of such storage can be shared between intelligent mediation between driver and grid operator needs. the electrical system and the transportation system, making it economically more efficient. Using IP or broadcast protocols, utilities Market Definitions grid operators can ―talk‖ to plugged-in cars, buy electricity from car owners when it is needed, and sell it back when demand is lower. For each of the projections, the expected manufacturer selling prices have been used to calculate the market value. All figures are stated in Expected results US nominal dollars. Also, some percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.  Increased reliability and efficiency of existing electric grid. V2G cars can take reduce over-loaded distribution feeders V2G vehicles: for the purpose of this report, a V2G vehicle is one that when energy demands are high. They can supplement or can connect, communicate, and sell demand response services to the replace spinning reserves and provide regulation as demand grid. A vehicle with grid capacity can be a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) or a Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Vehicle units sold are Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 6 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  12. 12. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in expressed in annual units. Cumulative V2G vehicles on the road are not demand response programs associated with the vehicle or reported. V2G vehicles are produced and sold by automobile vehicles. manufactures to dealers or directly to large commercial and public customers.  Equipment: this equipment such as computers, networking equipment, cabling, processors, and circuits that allow for the V2G vehicle market value: the V2G vehicle market value is the execution, management, reporting, and processing of V2G aggregate of expected annual revenues received by automobile tasks. manufactures for the sale of V2G vehicles (wholesale values). V2G grid revenues: V2G grid revenues are the aggregate total of the V2G infrastructure: without the proper infrastructure in place, the V2G expected payments made to all V2G vehicle owners. Payments are market will not get very far. The infrastructure in this report refers only made to V2G vehicle owners by grid operators or utilities for the sales to infrastructure that will support V2G vehicles. Infrastructure comprises of their ‗grid power‘ in the vehicle back to the grid. of residential charging stations, commercial/public charging stations, distribution systems upgrades to the grid, software and systems, The five categories symbols in this report are: equipment, and data storage.  V2G vehicle unit  V2G technology V2G technology: V2G technology is comprised of the key components an automobile manufacture must place into a vehicle to produce a V2G  V2G vehicle market value  V2G infrastructure vehicle. Without these key components (V2G technology), a vehicle cannot communicate with the grid and/or sell demand response services. Software and system vendors and equipment manufacturers  V2G grid revenue  are expected to sell these components to automobile manufactures. However, system operators, utilities, and V2G vehicle owners will need Forecast period: the forecast period for this report is 2015 – 2020. to purchase and install some of these components as well. In this report, This period was arrived at after a thorough review of V2G literature, V2G technology is broken into 3 components or segments: public PHEV and EV reports, and from industry expert interviews. Although views sometimes varied widely on when the market will be fully developed, the consensus view of our research showed that 2015  Drive systems (power electronics unit): the drive system is the is a viable target date for formal market development. The period most expensive component among the key V2G technology from 2010 to 2015 is seen as the testing and demonstration phase components. The drive system operates as a DC-AC inverter (market infancy). See the Methodology in this report for a list of the and enables bi-directional power to flow from the vehicle to the key reports, studies, and sources used in developing the forecast grid. Drive system innovation and evolution is critical to period. increasing adoption of V2G technology. Geographic coverage: This report showcases the projected Global  Software and communication systems: for example, ZigBee market values from 2015 to 2020, and the projected market for the Smart Energy and HomePlug enable the two-way US, UK, China, Denmark, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and the Rest communication between the grid and the vehicle. Further, they of the World (ROW) from 2015 to 2020. allow monitoring, scheduling, and analysis of charge times and Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 7 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  13. 13. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in V2G Concept Battery Petroleum Hybrid Fossil Biomass Electrolysis Ect. Fuel Cell V2G Concept The V2G concept is that battery, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles all can send power to the electric grid, power that all three Power Grid already generate internally. For battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, the power connection is already there. For fuel cell and fuel-only hybrids, an electrical connection must be added. Orange arrows indicate electric flow from vehicles to the grid (Source: University of Delaware V2G Research Group, learn more at www.udel.edu/V2G/concept). Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 8 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  14. 14. Methodology | Methodology Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 9 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  15. 15. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Methodology Technologies Program and the DOE Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability) The projections presented in the report were derived through rigorous  A Test of V2G for Energy Storage and Frequency Regulation analysis and evaluation of the BEV, PHEV, Hybrid, and Next in the PJM System, William Kempton et al. Generation Vehicle markets. Further, heavy investigation into the Smart  Annual Energy Outlook 2010 – 2007 to 2035 Projections, Grid industry was analyzed as the Smart Grid is considered a main US Energy Information Administration driver of growth for V2G technology. Last, infrastructure development and projected deployments were assessed to identify the feasibility of 3. Forecast model: Time series forecasting was used to derive the a market to support the projected number of V2G vehicles. The seven projections in this report. Using the historical sales data from points below provide an overview for the inputs for the projections in hybrid and next-generation vehicles (alternative fuel vehicles), this report. projections were forecasted for each country and the ROW starting with 2015 as the base period. Thus, our projections 1. Historical data and market performance: Historical data on assume V2G market penetration will follow a growth trajectory Hybrid and next generation vehicle sales in the countries path similar to hybrid and next-generation vehicles. The covered in this report and around the globe were analyzed to summation of the forecasts formed the global market in each identify growth modes and expected unit sales at the market respective forecast. The key forecast, which formed the basis entry phase and market development phase. Once forecasts for all other projections, was the V2G vehicle unit forecast. were produced, the data were used to test the validity of the Econometric modeling was used to establish a price – demand growth in units and the annual compound growth rate in specific relationship of the increase in sales with respect to the expected markets. price of a V2G vehicle. This relationship further contributed to our expected decrease in the costs to produce V2G vehicles for 2. Establishing market forecast period: The forecast period of automobile manufactures. 2015 to 2020 was arrived at after examining and studying the expected development of PHEV and EV market and the 4. Costs, price, Smart Grid, and infrastructure considerations: reduction in costs of V2G technology. The reports listed below Reductions in cost and the price of the V2G vehicles to were critical to developing the projections and forecast period. consumers are expected to fall as the market expands. However, significant cost and price reductions are not expected  Electric Vehicles in the United States – A New Model with until the market development phase begins. Unit purchase Forecasts to 2030, Center for Entrepreneurship & incentives and penetration of hybrids was also taken into Technology (CET) Technical Brief consideration. Affordability by main stream consumers is not  Technology Roadmap – Electric and plug-in hybrid electric likely to occur until 2020. Additionally, stated Smart Grid vehicles, International Energy Agency deployments are expected to remain ‗on schedule‘ and thus be  Assessment of Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration with able to support the integration of V2G vehicles. Key basic ISO/RTO Systems, KEMA, Inc and the ISO/RTO Council infrastructure such as charging stations is expected to be built in conjunction with planned BEV and PHEV programs for utilities  Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study – and governments. In other words, static V2G technology Interim Report: Phase 1 Scenario Evaluation, Sentec, Inc. capabilities will exist instead of dynamic V2G technology. For (funded by the US Department of Energy Vehicle example, dynamic V2G technology would mean a V2G vehicle could charge and sell back to the grid from anywhere a Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 10 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  16. 16. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in charging station is available while static means this can only happen from a fixed station pre-determined by a utility or ISO. 5. Automobile manufacturer BEV and PHEV model announcements: In 2009 and 2010, major automobile manufacturers such as Ford, Toyota, and Nissan announced EV, Hybrid, and PHEV models or potential models and made EVs and PHEVs a key to their future growth. Although none have formally announced a V2G vehicle, it is safe to assume that they will soon offer such vehicles once a viable market opportunity is clearly present. Thus the BEVs and PHEVs in their portfolio offer a natural transition to V2G enabled BEVs and PHEVs. 6. Explicit government BEV and PHEV targets and programs: The seven governments in this report have set aggressive targets for BEVs and PHEVs in their respective countries. These targets provided key data regarding optimal penetration for BEVs and PHEVS. Further these announcements gave support for the expected cost and end-user prices due to economies of scale. Announced targets for each respective government are discussed in the market projections for each country in this report. 7. Other key assumptions: Global economic growth remains relatively steady and stays on trend, especially growth in Asian markets. Additionally, our analysis assumes no global imbalances, recessions, or geopolitical crises occur. Next, consumer demand in each respective country is driven by upper-income buyers while fleet demand driven by the commercial and public sector. Finally, rising costs of gasoline are expected to follow the trend predicted by the US Energy Information Administration. Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 11 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  17. 17. mon Islands Mexico Luxembourg Eritrea Portugal Bahamas Greenla dova Tonga Niue Sao Tome and Principe Somalia Netherlands Ant V2G: Marketplace t Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Congo Democratic Republic of the (Za awi Anguilla [United States] Nauru New Caledonia (French) Slova elau French Guiana Christmas Island Lithuania Bouvet Island Mald wana Chad [Denmark] Liechtenstein V2G: Equatorial Guinea Guadelo Marketplace nch) Benin Cuba Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands Hungary Armenia Bol ada Northern Mariana Islands Nigeria Russia Bosnia-Herzegovina Eg eria [China] Brazil Sri Lanka Palau Saint Pierre and Miquelon Ni bia Dominican Republic Mozambique Malta Saint Helena Saudi Arabia ador Mauritania [United Kingdom] Suriname Israel Uruguay Cyp ed Arab Emirates Slovenia Polynesia (French) Norway Grenada Belg an San Marino Andorra [Germany] Syria Greece Cameroon Argen ei Liberia [South Korea] Guinea Montenegro Thailand Sudan S and Nevis Panama Morocco Albania Jamaica India Bahrain Jor muda Singapore [Japan] Chile Turks and Caicos Islands Falkland Isla wan Turkey Cocos (Keeling) Islands Estonia Iraq Hong Kong Mauritius Ma Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 12 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  18. 18. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Global V2G Market Factsheet 2020 V2G Factsheet Country Units Market Infrastructure Technology Revenue Global 1,056 $26.6 $6.7 $10.5 $2.9 US 296 $8.1 $1.8 $2.8 $.654 China 294 $6.5 $1.8 $2.8 $.521 Japan 188 $4.4 $1.2 $1.8 $.735 Germany 62 $1.6 $.377 $.587 $.587 UK 45 $1.3 $.277 $.432 $.323 South Korea 30 $.72 $.175 $.283 $.053 Denmark 13 $.038 $.081 $.126 $.093 thousands US billions US billions US billions US billions Source: Zpryme Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 13 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  19. 19. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Global V2G Market 2020 Global Market 1.056 million (V2G Units) $26.6 billion (V2G Vehicle Market Value) $6.7 billion (V2G Infrastructure Market Value) $10.5 billion (V2G Technology Market Value) $2.9 billion (V2G Total Revenue) Source: Zpryme Smart Grid Cloud Spanish utility Iberdrola has selected Itron for the first phase of its smart metering program (The initial deployment will see the delivery of 100,000 meters to the Spanish city of Castellon). Aruba Networks, has agreed to acquire Azalea Networks for $40.5M in a cash and stock deal. Telvent to implement Smart Grid project for Maharashtra India (The cost of the program is approximately $10.3B). Coulomb Technologies, which started installing 4,600 charging stations under its $37M ChargePoint America program, will also be providing 1,800 home charging points to Chevrolet Volt customers. OG&E to spend up to $366.4M on Smart Grid deployment to the rest of its Oklahoma service area by the end of 2012 (other agreement puts OG&E in line to receive $130 in stimulus funds from the US government for the project). EPRI and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) are collaborating for a prototype integrated solar-assisted electric vehicle charging station that will be erected at the institute‘s Knoxville, Tenn., research laboratory. EnergyAustralia, will lead a $100 million "Smart Grid, Smart City" project in the state of New South Wales that will begin later this year. The project will be a little bit of everything when it comes to Smart Grid, from substation automation and charging stations for electric vehicles to home area networks and time-of-use pricing. Sensus, claims more than 7M advanced meter endpoints at water, gas and electric utilities across the United States and Canada. Energate, an Ottawa clean technology startup has raised $7.2M in venture capital funding to drive sales of Smart Grid technology aimed a reducing energy consumption in the home. ENMAX and Cisco are co- developing a Smart Grid power system in Calgary, Canada (The agreement is part of the power provider's plan to move to a more high-tech service model - coined "Utility 2.0"). Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 14 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  20. 20. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Closer Look: From 2015 to 2020, global V2G vehicle unit sales are projected to grow from 103,900 to 1.06 Vehicle Unit Forecast million, respectively. The V2G vehicle unit sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 59.0 percent. Global V2G Vehicle Unit Forecast 1,200,000 2015 - 2020 | Compound Annual Growth Rate = 59.1% Source: Zpryme 1,056,732 1,000,000 800,000 766,289 600,000 542,974 400,000 363,241 229,209 200,000 103,641 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Denmark 1,591 2,902 4,413 6,434 9,599 13,202 South Korea 2,998 5,562 8,893 13,754 19,856 29,622 UK 4,185 7,303 14,290 24,195 32,930 45,221 Germany 6,493 11,793 19,166 31,097 42,985 61,486 ROW 18,963 45,626 65,325 92,240 132,019 129,369 Japan 18,914 58,133 87,734 125,319 150,834 187,642 China 14,414 33,559 59,205 101,948 170,886 293,922 U.S. 36,082 64,331 104,216 147,986 207,181 296,268 Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 15 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  21. 21. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Vehicle Market Forecast Closer Look: From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G vehicle market value is projected to grow from $3.2 billion to $26.6 billion, respectively. The V2G vehicle market value CAGR from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 53.1 percent. Global V2G Vehicle Market Value Forecast $30 2015 - 2020 | Compound Annual Growth Rate = 53.1% | (US millions) Source: Zpryme $26.6 $25 $20.1 $20 $15 $14.8 $10.3 $10 $6.7 $5 $3.2 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Denmark $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.3 $0.4 South Korea $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.4 $0.5 $0.7 UK $0.1 $0.2 $0.4 $0.7 $0.9 $1.3 Germany $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.9 $1.2 $1.6 ROW $0.6 $1.4 $2.0 $2.7 $3.8 $3.6 Japan $0.5 $1.6 $2.3 $3.2 $3.7 $4.4 China $0.4 $0.9 $1.5 $2.4 $3.9 $6.5 U.S. $1.1 $2.0 $3.1 $4.3 $5.8 $8.1 Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 16 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  22. 22. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Closer Look: From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G infrastructure market is projected to grow from $659.9 Infrastructure Forecast million to $6.7 billion, respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 58.9 percent. Global V2G Infrastructure Forecast $8,000 2015 - 2020 | Compound Annual Growth Rate = 58.9% | (US millions) Source: Zpryme $7,000 $6,685.7 $6,000 $5,000 $4,543.0 $4,000 $3,269.3 $3,000 $2,223.1 $2,000 $1,435.8 $1,000 $659.9 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Denmark $10.0 $18.1 $27.4 $39.8 $59.1 $81.0 South Korea $18.8 $34.4 $54.4 $82.4 $117.5 $175.1 UK $26.2 $45.6 $88.8 $149.6 $202.8 $277.3 Germany $40.7 $73.6 $119.1 $192.3 $264.7 $377.1 ROW $129.0 $290.5 $373.1 $484.0 $641.6 $1,005.3 Japan $118.6 $362.8 $545.0 $775.1 $928.9 $1,150.7 China $90.4 $209.4 $367.8 $630.6 $1,052.4 $1,802.4 U.S. $226.2 $401.4 $647.4 $915.3 $1,275.9 $1,816.8 Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 17 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  23. 23. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Technology Forecast Closer Look: From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G technology market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion to $10.5 billion, respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 46.8 percent. Global V2G Technology Forecast $12,000 2015 - 2020 | Compound Annual Growth Rate = 46.9% | (US millions) Source: Zpryme $10,485.3 $10,000 $8,000 $7,765.3 $6,000 $5,910.7 $4,376.4 $4,000 $3,086.0 $2,000 $1,533.9 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Denmark $24.3 $40.2 $55.7 $73.9 $100.5 $126.1 South Korea $45.7 $77.1 $112.2 $158.0 $207.9 $283.0 UK $63.8 $101.3 $180.3 $278.0 $344.8 $432.0 Germany $99.0 $163.5 $241.8 $357.3 $450.1 $587.4 ROW $242.5 $540.6 $618.0 $732.5 $1,123.5 $1,589.9 Japan $288.4 $806.0 $1,106.8 $1,439.7 $1,579.5 $1,792.6 China $219.8 $465.3 $746.9 $1,171.2 $1,789.4 $2,808.0 U.S. $550.2 $891.9 $1,314.8 $1,700.2 $2,169.5 $2,830.4 Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 18 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  24. 24. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Revenue Forecast Closer Look: From 2015 to 2020, global V2G grid revenues are projected to grow from $284.4 million to $2.9 billion, respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 63.5 percent. Global V2G Revenue Forecast $3,500 Revenues Generated from Selling Regulation & *Benchmarks for $3,000 Spinning Reserve* $2,904.2 expected payments 2015 - 2020 | Compound Annual Growth Rate = 63.5% | (US millions) from grid sales Source: Zpryme received by V2G $2,500 vehicle owners are based on averages presented by studies $2,050.1 conducted by the $2,000 University of Delaware and PJM Interconnect, the FERC‘s ‗Cash Back $1,500 $1,446.8 Hybrid‘ presentation, and the United States Postal Service‘s Electrification of $1,000 $934.9 Delivery Vehicles Feasibility Study Report. $570.7 $500 $284.4 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 South Korea $4.8 $9.0 $14.8 $23.5 $34.8 $53.2 Denmark $10.9 $20.0 $30.6 $44.9 $67.3 $93.0 ROW $27.4 $67.0 $97.6 $140.2 $204.1 $203.4 Germany $32.0 $58.8 $96.7 $158.5 $221.6 $320.4 UK $17.0 $33.2 $72.6 $137.8 $210.0 $323.0 China $20.8 $50.5 $92.9 $166.7 $291.1 $521.7 U.S. $72.2 $131.2 $216.9 $314.1 $448.5 $654.2 Japan $63.3 $200.9 $312.8 $461.2 $572.8 $735.4 Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 19 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  25. 25. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Global V2G Summary Projected V2G Vehicle Units Market Segementation by Country | 2015 South Global V2G Vehicle Units Korea Denmark 2.9% 1.5% From 2015 to 2020, global V2G vehicle unit sales are projected to UK 4.0% grow from 103,900 to 1.06 million, respectively. The V2G vehicle unit Germany sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is 6.3% projected to be 59.0 percent. ROW U.S. 34.8%  In 2015, the US, Japan, and China are projected to dominate 18.3% the V2G vehicle market, accounting for 34.8 percent, 18.2 percent, and 13.9 percent of the global V2G unit sales, Japan China respectively. In 2020, the V2G vehicle unit market share of the 18.2% 13.9% US, Japan, and China are projected to be 28.0 percent, 27.8 percent, and 17.8 percent, respectively. Source: Zpryme  In 2015, the collective V2G vehicle market share of Germany, Projected V2G Vehicle Units the UK, South Korea, and Denmark are projected to account for Market Segementation by Country | 2020 14.7 percent of global V2G unit sales. In 2020, the collective South V2G vehicle unit market share of Germany, the UK, South Korea Denmark 2.8% 1.2% Korea, and Denmark are projected to account for 14.2 percent UK 4.3% of global V2G unit sales. Germany 5.8%  From the 2015 to 2020, V2G vehicle unit sales in China, the UK, Japan, and South Korea are projected to grow the fastest ROW U.S. 28.0% among the seven countries covered in this report. 12.2% Global V2G Vehicle Market Value Forecast Japan 17.8% China 27.8% From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G vehicle market value is projected to grow from $3.2 billion to $26.6 billion, respectively. The V2G Source: Zpryme vehicle market value CAGR from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 53.1 percent (see Global V2G Vehicle Market Value Forecast on page 13).  In 2015, the V2G vehicle market value is projected to be the highest in the US ($1.1 billion) and Japan ($0.5 billion) However, in 2020 the US ($8.1 billion) and China ($6.5 billion) are projected to be the two largest markets. Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 20 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  26. 26. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Global V2G Infrastructure Projected V2G Infrastructure Market Segementation by Country | 2015 From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G infrastructure market is projected South to grow from $659.9 million to $6.7 billion, respectively. The compound Korea Denmark UK 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 58.9 percent. Germany 6.2%  In 2015, the US is projected to lead the V2G infrastructure U.S. market, accounting for 34.3 percent ($226.2 million) of the 34.3% global market. However, in 2020, the US share of the global ROW 19.6% market is projected to shrink to 27.2 percent ($1.82 billion). China is projected to be just behind the US with 27.0 percent ($1.80 billion) of the global market in 2020. Japan China 18.0% 13.7%  Public charging stations are projected to make up the largest share of V2G infrastructure, accounting for 57.1 percent Source: Zpryme ($376.9 million) of the global market in 2015 and 63.2 percent ($4.23 billion) of the market in 2020. During this time period, Projected V2G Infrastructure the compound annual growth rate for V2G public charging Market Segementation by Country | 2020 stations is projected to be 62.1 percent. South Korea Denmark UK 2.6%  Residential charging stations are projected to account for 16.7 4.1% 1.2% percent ($124.4 million) of the global market in 2015 and 14.5 percent ($1.21 billion) of the market in 2020. During this time Germany period, the compound annual growth rate for V2G residential 5.6% U.S. charging stations is projected to be 57.5 percent. 27.2% ROW  Global V2G related distribution system upgrades are 15.0% projected to grow from $110.4 million to $966.3 million from 2015 to 2020. During this time period, the compound annual Japan 17.2% China growth rate for distribution system upgrades is projected to be 27.0% 54.3 percent.  Global V2G IT infrastructure expenditures, which includes Source: Zpryme software, equipment, storage, and other IT related products, are projected to grow from $48.2 million to $286.6 million from 2015 to 2020. During this time period, the compound annual growth rate for V2G IT infrastructure is projected to be 42.8 percent. Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 21 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  27. 27. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Global V2G Technology Projected V2G Technology Market Segementation by Country | 2015 From 2015 to 2020, the global V2G technology market is projected to South grow from $1.5 billion to $10.5 billion, respectively. The compound Korea Denmark UK 3.0% 1.6% annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 46.8 4.2% percent. Germany 6.5%  In 2015, the US is projected to lead the V2G technology U.S. market, accounting for 35.9 percent ($550.2 million) of the 35.9% ROW global market. However, in 2020, the US share of the global 15.8% market is projected to shrink to 27.1 percent ($2.83 billion). China is projected to be just behind the US with 26.9 percent Japan ($2.81 billion) of the global market in 2020. 18.8% China 14.3%  V2G drive systems are projected to make up the largest share Source: Zpryme of the V2G technology market, accounting for 91.2 percent ($1.4 billion) of the global market in 2015 and 90.7 percent ($9.5 billion) of the market in 2020. During this time period, the compound annual growth rate for V2G drive systems is Projected V2G Technology projected to be 46.6 percent. Market Segementation by Country | 2020 South  The global market for V2G software and systems is projected Korea UK 2.7% Denmark to grow from $57.0 million to $354.6 million from 2015 to 1.2% 4.1% 2020. During this time period, the compound annual growth Germany rate for V2G software and systems is projected to be 44.1 5.6% percent. U.S. 27.1% ROW  The global market for V2G equipment is projected to grow 15.2% from $41.5 million to $331.4 million from 2015 to 2020. During this time period, the compound annual growth rate for Japan V2G software and systems is projected to be 51.5 percent. 17.2% China 26.9% Source: Zpryme Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 22 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  28. 28. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in Global V2G Grid Revenues Projected Global V2G Technology Segementation by Component 2015 and 2020 From 2015 to 2020, global V2G grid revenues are projected to grow 100% from $284.4 million to $2.9 billion, respectively. The compound annual 90% growth rate (CAGR) from 2015 to 2020 is projected to be 63.5 Percent of Total Market 80% percent. 70% 60% 50%  In 2015, V2G grid revenue is projected to be the highest in the 40% US ($72.2 million) and Japan ($63.3 million). However, in 2020 30% Japan ($735.4 million) is projected to exceed the US ($654.2 20% million) in grid revenues. Japan‘s lead in 2020 can be most 10% attributed to the cost of electricity in Japan relative to Source: Zpryme 0% electricity costs in the US. 2015 2020 Other/Misc 2.4% 2.7% Equipment  From the 2015 to 2020, V2G grid revenue in China and the UK 2.7% 3.2% Software and Systems are projected to grow the fastest among the seven countries 3.7% 3.4% Drive System covered in this report. 91.2% 90.7% Projected Global V2G Infrastructure Segementation by Component Projected V2G Revenue* Projected V2G Revenue * Market Segementation by Country | 2015 Market Segementation by Country | 2020 2015 and 2020 South South Denmark Korea Denmark Korea 100% 4.4% 1.9% 3.2% 1.8% 90% ROW Percent of Total Market ROW 11.0% 7.0% 80% 70% Japan 25.5% Germany Japan 60% 11.0% 25.3% 50% Germany UK 11.1% 40% 12.9% U.S. 30% U.S. 22.5% UK 6.8% 29.1% China 20% China 18.0% 10% 8.4% Source: Zpryme 0% Source: Zpryme Source: Zpryme 2015 2020 Other 0.1% 0.1% *Benchmarks for expected payments from grid sales received by V2G vehicle owners are based on averages Storage 3.4% 2.2% presented by studies conducted by the University of Delaware and PJM Interconnect, the FERC‘s ‗Cash Back Hybrid‘ presentation, and the United States Postal Service‘s Electrification of Delivery Vehicles Feasibility Study Report. Equipment 1.2% 0.6% Software and Systems 2.6% 1.4% Distribution System Updgrades (Grid) 16.7% 14.5% Commerical/Public Charging Stations 57.1% 63.2% Residential Charging Stations 18.8% 18.0% Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 23 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
  29. 29. Executive Summary Background & Scope Methodology V2G Marketplace V2G: A Closer Look Experts Plug-in USUSV2G Market 2020 Market 296 thousand (V2G Units) $8.1 billion (V2G Vehicle Market Value) $1.8 billion (V2G Infrastructure Market Value) $2.8 billion (V2G Technology Market Value) $654 million (V2G Total Revenue) Source: Zpryme Smart Grid Cloud The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released its National Action Plan on Demand Response report, which identifies strategies various stakeholders can use to promote demand response efforts. EPCE was awarded a $2.55M Smart Grid Workforce Training and Development Grant. Memphis Light, Gas and Water division is likely to expand the size of its Smart Grid demonstration project from 1,000 households up to 1,900. Atheros Communications has executed an agreement with the US DOE under to receive $4.5M in grant funding to develop powerline chips designed to provide two-way data communications over existing AC wiring. Toshiba and Kyocera have been chosen to work on Smart Grid demonstration projects in New Mexico (NEDO will be investing $30M over four years on micro-grid and smart house demonstration projects). The Utilities Telecom Council and Verizon plan to conduct a study of the communications and information technology requirements of the nation's utilities. San Diego Fabless Startup is receiving $6M to create Smart Grid chip. Tampa Electric Co. launched a pilot project that will evaluate the SunWave solar photovoltaic system from Petra Solar. Opelika’s Light and Power department has undertaken a $30M project to connect every home in the city with fiber-optic cable. FirstEnergy won $57.4 million in federal grants for Smart Grid technologies in Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. GE and a group of four venture capital firms are putting up $200M to push development of new technologies in smart grid electrical systems. Learn more @ Learn more @ Page | 24 www.zpryme.com www.zigbee.org
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