Georgian Economy Overview - Aptil 2009

Loading...

Flash Player 9 (or above) is needed to view presentations.
We have detected that you do not have it on your computer. To install it, go here.

0 comments

Post a comment

    Post a comment
    Embed Video
    Edit your comment Cancel

    1 Favorite

    Georgian Economy Overview - Aptil 2009 - Presentation Transcript

    1. Georgian Economy Overview April 2009 www.georgia.gov.ge
    2. Country Overview Area: 69,700 sq km Population: 4,630,841 (2008E) Life expectancy: 76.51 years Official language: Georgian Literacy: 100% Capital: Tbilisi Currency (code): Lari (GEL) GDP 2008: US$12.80 billion GDP real growth rate 2008: 2.1% GDP per capita 2008 (PPP): US$4,851 Inflation rate (e-o-p) 2008: 5.5% External debt to GDP YE2008: 21.4% Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge 1 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    3. Executive Summary • Incredible economic performance in the past 5 years  Major events & timeline  Economic growth  Investment inflows  Fiscal & monetary performance  Summary of reforms • 2nd half of 2008  The Russian aggression • No major long-term interruptions in any kinds of supplies – food, electricity, gas, petrol • No breakdown of the banking sector • Triggered economic slowdown • Geopolitical risk insurance • US-Georgia charter on security • New wave of democratic reforms  Global financial crisis • Affected Georgia through decrease of exports • Other related factors • Donor funding of US$4.5 billion (35% of 2009 forecast GDP) • The economy remains resilient  GEL 2.2 billion (10% of 2009 forecast GDP) fiscal stimulus in 2009  Low public debt  Resilient and well-capitalised banking sector  Recent tax reforms  Special taxation regimes  Secure energy supply  Real GDP growth forecast for 2009  Committed to continuing reforms www.georgia.gov.ge 2 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    4. Major Events 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 • President Mikheil • New tax code • Increasing FDI • Very strong • New presidential Saakashvili is • Deep liberalisation inflows economic and parliament elected performance elections – fresh five • Strong GDP growth • Infrastructure year mandate to • Rule of Law • Strong portfolio • Economy resilient to rehabilitation continue liberal inflows • Fighting Russian trade • Improvements in economic reforms • Opposition embargo corruption Energy Sector • Aggressive reforms protests in Sep- • Public sector of the financial Nov reform services sector • Western • Sovereign Eurobond oriented debut foreign policy • Georgia-Russia armed conflict in August • Global financial crisis World Bank Ease of Doing Business global ranking (http://www.doingbusiness.org) NA #112 #34 #21 #15 www.georgia.gov.ge 3 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    5. Economic Growth GDP GDP per capita (PPP) Nominal GDP (US$bn) Real GDP growth, y-o-y (%) 6,000 14 14% 12.3% 4,931 4,851 4,694 11.1% 5,000 12 12% 13.1 12.8 9.6% 4,038 9.4% 10 10% 3,644 4,000 10.2 3,242 2,966 8 8% 3,000 5.9% US$ 7.8 6 6% 6.4 2,000 4 4% 5.1 2.5% 2.1% 4.0 1,000 2 2% 0 0% 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F Source: International Monetary Fund Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia Components of nominal GDP (2008) Nominal GDP per capita Agriculture, 8.9% Manufacturing, 3,500 8.2% Construction, 2,987 2,920 3,000 5.3% Other, 29.0% 2,315 2,500 Transportation & Communications, 2,000 1,764 10.0% US$ 1,484 1,500 Financial 1,188 Public Intermediation, 919 Administration, 1,000 2.1% 14.9% Healthcare & 500 Education, 7.6% Trade, 13.9% 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F Nominal 2008 GDP is US$12,797 mln Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia , National Bank of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge 4 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    6. Investment Inflows Net FDI Net FDI breakdown by origin 2004-2008 Net FDI Net FDI as % of GDP 2,500 25% Country US$ mln % UK 577.0 10.6% 19.8% Turkey 501.5 9.2% 2,000 20% USA 491.6 9.0% 15.3% Netherlands 456.5 8.4% US$ mln 1,500 15% Kazakhstan 405.3 7.4% UAE 395.6 7.3% 10.1% 9.7% British Virgin Islands 313.9 5.8% 1,000 10% 2,014.8 7.0% Cyprus 252.3 4.6% 1,293.7 Bahamas 246.4 4.5% 1,190.4 500 5% Czech Republic 213.8 3.9% 499.1 449.8 Subtotal 3,853.9 70.7% 0 0% Other 1,593.9 29.3% Total 5,447.8 100.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Net FDI breakdown by sectors (2007 – 2008) Cumulative Net FDI Other, 3.2% Cumulative Net FDI, '04-'08 Cumulative Net FDI as % of GDP Agriculture, 0.8% Transports & 6,000 45% 43% 41% Banking, 4.5% Communications, 40% 5,000 23.6% 35% Construction, 28% 4,000 30% 14.6% US$ mln 25% 3,000 5,447.8 20% Energy, 18.6% 15% Manufacturing, 4,154.1 2,000 15% 10% 16.8% 10% 2,139.3 1,000 5% 499.1 948.9 Services, 17.8% 0 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: National Bank of Georgia, International Monetary Fund Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia 5 April 2009 www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview
    7. Fiscal and Monetary Performance Tax revenue performance Exchange rate evolution GEL/US$ (period average) GEL/US$ (e-o-p) (GEL mln) Budget Revenue* (LHS) Budget Revenue* as % of GDP (RHS) 1.4 1.49 7,000 35% 30.4% 1.5 29.3% 1.59 27.2%** 26.8% 6,000 30% 1.6 24.2% 1.71 23.1% 5,000 25% 1.7 1.79 1.66 1.67 1.83 4,000 20% 1.8 1.78 5,805 5,791 1.81 1.9 3,000 15% 4,973 1.91 3,695 2.08 2.0 2,000 10% 2,810 2,267 2.1 1,000 5% 2.15 2.2 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F Source: National Bank of Georgia Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia Conventional deficit (cash basis)*** Consumer price index (y-o-y) Budget Cash Based Deficit as % of GDP CPI (e-o-p) CPI (period average) 13% 0% 12% 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F -1% 11.0% 11% 10.1% -2.6% -2% 10% -3.4% 9.2% -3% 9% 8.2% 9.2% 8.8% -4.4% 8% 7.5% -4% -4.8% 7.0% 7% -5% 6% 6.2% 5.7% -6.6% -6% 4.8% 5.5% 5% -7% 4% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 *Consolidated Budget ** Decrease in budget revenue as percent of GDP is caused by tax cuts effective from 1 January 2009 *** GFS 86 Classification Source: National Bank of Georgia Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 6 April 2009
    8. Summary of Reforms • Eradicating corruption • Civil service reforms • Labour code reforms • Establishing rule of law • Energy solutions • Deep deregulation – limiting state intervention • Dramatically simplified licensing • Reformed and simplified the Tax Code and the Customs Code • Improved tax administration and enforcement • Reduced taxes www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 7 April 2009
    9. Reforms – Creation of Favourable Market Environment Ease of Doing Business, 2008 Economic Freedom Index, 2008 USA USA 5 3 UK 6 UK 10 Norway 10 Estonia 12 15 (up from 112 in 2005) 32 (up from 99 in 2005) GEORGIA GEORGIA Estonia 22 Latvia 38 Azerbaijan 33 Hungary 43 Armenia 44 France 48 Bulgaria 46 Bulgaria 59 Romania 45 Italy 64 Turkey 59 Romania 68 Kazakhstan 70 Turkey 74 Belarus 85 Kazakhstan 76 Montenegro 90 Azerbaijan 107 Serbia 94 Ukraine 133 Russia 120 Russia 134 Ukraine 145 Source: World Bank, 2008 (Rank out of 181 countries) Source: The Heritage Foundation Corruption Survey, 2008 Bertelsmann Transformation Index, 2008 % of firms expected to make Informal payments (to Estonia 2 “get things done’) Latvia 10 Lithuania 17 35% 32.6% Georgia 23 30% Ukraine 55 Armenia 56 25% Kazakhstan 76 20% Kyrgyzstan 77 Moldova 87 15% Tajikistan 88 10% Russia 98 4.1% Azerbaijan 99 5% Belarus 110 Uzbekistan 117 0% Turkmenistan 121 Georgia Eastern Europe & Central Asia Source: International Financial Corporation (IFC) Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung , 2008 (Rank out of 125 countries) www.georgia.gov.ge 8 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    10. August ‘08 Conflict October- 7-15 15-22 22-29 September February August August August 2009 • Banking Sector – • Banking Sector – • Banking Sector – • Banking Sector – minimal lending Business (almost) Business as usual, interruptions, restrictions as usual but very low net lending & online abolished, online • Energy Sector – new lending banking suspended banking resumed • Energy Sector – Business as usual • Energy Sector – • Energy Sector – Business as usual • Transport & Georgia continues no interruptions • Transport & Logistics – exporting in electricity or Business (almost) Logistics – electricity gas supply as usual Business as usual • Transport & • Transport & • US$4.5 bn donors Logistics – Partial Logistics – flights, pledge blockade of Poti port & railway • GEL2.2 bn fiscal and Georgian operations economic Railway resumed (almost) stimulus in normal way Russian Sarkozy Partial pull EU observers Geneva The Charter on Strategic forces plan signed; back of deploy into negotiations Partnership between invade Fighting Russian conflict launched between Georgia and the United Georgia stops troops affected areas the parties States was signed www.georgia.gov.ge 9 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    11. Geopolitical Risk Insurance • Political Risk Insurance • Government of Georgia plans to launch political risk re-insurance (PRI) services to the strategic and portfolio investors seeking investment opportunities in Georgia • PRI will minimize the exposure to political risks that some of the investors come across while investing in Georgia • Assets and investments of any size and in any industry can be insured • EU Mission in Georgia • EU observers deployed into conflict affected areas of Georgia • US-Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership signed on 9 January 2009 • The Charter is based on the principles of strategic cooperation between the two states and support for the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders and the strengthening of democracy and stability www.georgia.gov.ge 10 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    12. Bilateral Treaties on Investment Promotion • Georgia has bilateral treaties on investment promotion and protection with the following 25 countries 1. Austria 14. Israel 2. Azerbaijan 15. Moldova 3. Armenia 16. Netherlands 4. Belgium 17. Romania 5. China 18. Turkey 6. Egypt 19. Turkmenistan 7. Finland 20. Sweden 8. France 21. Ukraine 9. Greece 22. Uzbekistan 10. Kazakhstan 23. USA 11. Kyrgyzstan 24. Luxemburg 12. Italy 25. Czech Republic - pending 13. Iran www.georgia.gov.ge 11 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    13. US-Georgia Charter of Strategic Partnership • On 9 January 2009, the Charter on Strategic Partnership between Georgia and the United States was signed • According to the charter:  United States will undertake a Program of Enhanced Security Cooperation that will increase Georgian capabilities and strengthen Georgia’s candidacy for NATO membership  Recognising the threats to global peace and stability, Georgia and the United States will expand the scope of their defense  In order to improve cooperation in the fields of trade and economy, Georgia and the United States will update Bilateral Investments Treaty, expand Georgian access to the General System of Preferences and explore the possibility of a Free Trade Agreement  Georgia and the United States will promote economic reforms and liberalization, enhance job creation, economic growth and improvement of business climate  The sides will explore opportunities for increasing Georgia’s energy production and enhance the physical security of energy transit through Georgia to European markets. Through cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Georgia and the United States will develop a new Southern Corridor to help Georgia and the rest of Europe secure imports of natural gas supplies from Azerbaijan and Central Asia www.georgia.gov.ge 12 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    14. New Wave of Democratic Reforms • New wave of democracy implies the reforms in order to have a stronger Parliament, more effective means of control and oversight between the branches of government, more free and unbiased media and more independent judiciary  Stronger Parliament and enhanced oversight  Property rights  Greater media openness  Enhanced independence of the judiciary  Lifetime appointments of Judges  Trials by jury www.georgia.gov.ge 13 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    15. 10% 0% 4% 6% 8% 12% 2% -6% -4% -2% Peru 9.8% China 9.0% Egypt 7.2% Indonesia 6.1% Russia 6.0% India 5.3% Malaysia 5.1% Poland 4.8% www.georgia.gov.ge Slovenia 4.0% Israel 4.0% Lithuania 3.7% Hong Kong 3.1% Thailand 3.0% South Korea 2.6% Austria 2.2% Source: Economist (Economic and Financial Indicators - Output, prices and jobs) Georgia 2.1% Taiwan 1.8% Switzerland 1.8% Finland 1.6% Norway 1.5% Georgian Economy Overview Turkey 1.5% Singapore 1.2% Euro Area 0.8% Real GDP growth – 2008E UK 0.7% Sweden 0.6% Global Financial Crisis Luxemburg 0.6% Canada 0.5% Hungary 0.4% Japan -0.2% outlook through decreasing exports and other related indicators Iceland -0.5% April 2009 Denmark -0.6% New Zealand -0.9% Ireland -2.8% Estonia -2.8% • In October 2008, Global Financial Crisis impact on Georgia’s macroeconomic 14 Latvia -4.6%
    16. Resilient Economy Central Bank Reserves IMF Facility FX researves in 2007 FX Reserves in 2008 2,500 2,000 500 500 500 500 US$ mln 1,500 1,908.2 1,000 1,508.5 1,480.8 1,469.8 1,454.6 1,419.8 1,401.0 1,369.8 1,359.5 1,354.6 1,347.0 1,346.3 1,339.6 1,325.3 1,271.3 1,245.6 1,220.1 1,208.5 1,122.6 1,112.9 1,051.7 1,008.1 985.8 934.6 500 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: National Bank of Georgia Fiscal Revenue Performance 2007 2008 600 500 400 GEL mln 300 502.6 499.5 459.2 447.3 444.3 442.5 415.3 408.1 407.6 390.5 379.4 377.9 366.8 367.1 362.5 358.4 352.2 346.3 319.6 316.1 200 308.4 305.5 303.5 263.1 100 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia • IMF stand-by arrangement facility program was signed in September 2008 for US$ 750 mln, of which US$250 mln was received at the end of the September 2008 • Increases in FX reserves was stem from the IMF stand-by arrangement facility program and budgetary support of donors www.georgia.gov.ge 15 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    17. Resilient Economy, cont’d M2 and M3 vs. NBG’s FX Reserves M2 and M3 Performance M2 M3 Real GDP growth rate Reserves/M2 Reserves/M3 5 15% 1.6 12.3% 1.4 4 12% 1.2 4.2 9.6% 4.0 9.4% 1.0 3 9% GEL bn 0.8 5.9% 0.6 2.7 2 6% 0.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 0.2 1.5 1 3% 1.4 0.0 2.0% 1.1 0.8 Jul-05 Jul-04 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-04 Jan-07 Sep-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 Sep-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Nov-04 May-06 Nov-07 May-04 May-05 Nov-05 Nov-06 May-07 May-08 Nov-08 0 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: National Bank of Georgia Source: National Bank of Georgia NBG interventions Monthly TICEX trading volume NBG's monthly net interventions 300 200 100 US$ mln 0 -100 -200 Feb-07 Feb-08 Sep-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Nov-08 Oct-07 Oct-08 May-07 Jul-07 May-08 Jul-08 Aug-07 Aug-08 Jun-07 Jun-08 Apr-07 Apr-08 Jan-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Dec-08 Mar-07 Mar-08 www.georgia.gov.ge 16 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    18. Real Estate Market New property registrations Mortgages 2007 2008 2007 2008 30 8 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.2 7 6.6 24.4 24.6 25 # of issued mortgages '000 6.1 # of registrations '000 6 5.8 19.6 5.3 5.5 4.8 20 5.0 5.2 16.7 16.3 5 4.5 4.1 5.4 3.8 5.2 4.4 13.2 12.4 15 4.8 4 12.0 10.8 4.2 9.3 3.3 3 7.5 10 2.7 6.4 2.9 10.3 9.8 9.8 10.3 10.2 9.9 2 8.0 5 6.9 7.2 6.8 7.7 1 5.2 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: National Agency of Public Registry Source: National Agency of Public Registry Secondary market purchases Real estate registrations 2007 2008 New real estate registrations Secondary market purchases Mortgages 30 26.2 300 24.8 26.2 25 22.5 23.5 244.6 # of transactions '000 20.8 21.5 24.9 250 224.3 19.5 18.8 18.3 21.7 19.2 20 200 173.2 17.8 17.5 20.0 13.8 19.6 17.5 18.3 15.8 15 '000 150 14.3 114.3 14.5 102.0 103.3 10 11.8 100 68.1 56.8 5 35.5 50 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2006 2007 2008 Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge 17 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    19. Current Account Deficit Current account deficit CAD Total private capital inflows (TPCI) Donor Inflows (DI)* CAD as % of GDP CAD + TPCI + DI as % of GDP 5,000 30% 4,000 20% 942.0 3,000 276.2 7.7% 7.8% 2,000 10% 5.6% 850.0 261.7 3.1% 5.4% US$ mln 1.7% 2,905.0 1,000 1,300.0 176.7 1,506.8 160.3 2,283.8 0% 98.3 0.1% 734.8 479.6 351.0 0 -353.6 -383.3 -709.5 -1,174.6 -1,000 -10% -2,008.7 -2,134.0 -6.9% -9.6% -2,850.5 -11.1% -2,000 -15.1% -20% -16.3% -19.7% -3,000 -22.3% -4,000 -30% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F Note: Updated as of 10 April 2009 *Donor inflows include both public and private sectors. Donor inflows in 2009 is adjusted according to the banking sector foreign debt outflows Source: National Bank of Georgia , Minister of Finance of Georgia Exports and imports** Imports of goods & services Exports of goods & services Remittances CAGR (‘04-‘09F): 16% CAGR (‘04-‘09F): 10% 8,000 7,497.0 6,000 5,916.9 US$ mln 5,247.9 955.2 4,000 4,412.9 755.4 3,318.1 730.0 420.5 315.4 2,492.8 2,000 1,865.3 3,691.3 212.7 3,182.4 165.8 2,583.9 2,551.6 2,187.5 1,646.9 1,288.5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F **Export & import of goods and services Source: National Bank of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 18 April 2009
    20. The Donors’ Pledges of US$4.5 billion Aid by donors Aid by sectors Donor US$ million Sector US$ million World Bank 530 IDPs support; e.g. IDPs housing 350 EBRD 927 Transport infrastructure 682 Asian Development Bank 300 IFC 350 Energy infrastructure 381 European Investment Bank 330 Urban and municipal infrastructure 210 USA 1,000 Finance and banking 1,105 EC 638 Non- sectoral support 586 EU members 174 Japan 200 Unallocated 1,221 Other states 88 Total 4,535 4,535 Total Source: World Bank, European Commission Source: World Bank, European Commission • As of 31 December 2008, Georgia has already entered into agreements for or received 30% (US$1,366 million, 10.7% of 2009 forecast GDP) of the total donors pledge to private and public sectors • Additional projects have already been indentified and agreements have been reached on the amount of US$2,189 million (48% of total pledge, 17.2% of 2009 forecast GDP) to be formally committed in 2009-2011 • Government of Georgia has been working and negotiating the terms and conditions on the remaining amount of US$980 million, 22% of total pledged amount www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 19 April 2009
    21. The Donors’ Pledges of US$4.5 billion, cont’d 2008 US$ mln 2009 US$ mln (formal Implementation Of The Pledge Made At The International Donors' (formally committed) commitments pipeline) Conference For Georgia (Brussels, 22 October 2008)* Loan Grant Loan Grant Public Sector 1. Budget Support 110.0 291.5 80.0 60.9 2. Internally Displaced Persons 30.5 141.9 3. Core Recovery of the Georgian Economy 159.1 128.2 1,179.6 10.2 Infrastructure – Transport 20.0 60.0 875.1 Infrastructure – Energy 14.0 279.4 Infrastructure – Municipal 139.1 34.9 25.1 10.2 Agriculture 13.0 Environment 6.4 4. Other 5.8 62.6 355.9 Total Public Sector 275 513 1,260 569 Private Sector EBRD (real sector, banking) 220 200 IFC (real sector, banking) 172 160 FMO (banking) 10 To be Discussed OPIC (real sector, banking) 176 To be Discussed Total Private Sector 578 360 Total Public and Private 853 513 1,620 569 Of which: Grants 1,082 USD million Loans 2,472 USD million *The break-down does not include assistance managed exclusively by donor agencies Examples Of Infrastructure Projects: • 500 kv. Power Transmission Line (EBRD, EIB, KfW) • South Georgia Road (MCG) • East-West Highway Improvement Project (WB, Japan) • Secondary and Local Roads (WB) • Adjara Bypass Road (ADB) • Rehabilitation of Communal Infrastructure Facilities in Batumi (KfW) • Vaziani-Gombori-Telavi Road (WB) • Regional and Municipal Infrastructure Development Projects (ADB, EBRD) Georgian Economy Overview 20 April 2009
    22. Diversified Trade Structure  WTO member since Import structure* by country, 2008 Export structure* by country, 2008 2000 Kazakhstan, Others, China, 0.7%  Simplified customs Armenia, Kazakhstan, 1.3% 10.4% 1.2% Other, 6.0% Russia, 1.9% regime since August 1.1% EU Countries, 2006, new customs Turkmenistan, 28.5% United Arab 2.8% code became effective Emirates, EU Countries, in 2007 and was 0.8% 25.8% China, 5.0% upgraded in 2009 Canada, 8.7% USA, 4.1%  No quantitative restrictions on trade Ukraine, 7.6% United Arab Turkey, 19.5% Turkey, Emirates, Armenia, 14.9% 4.8%  Zero tariff on the 7.2% Russia, 6.7% Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, majority of goods USA, 7.2% 10.2% 10.7% 14.2%  One of the two Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia beneficiaries of the EU Import structure* by product, 2008 Export structure* by product, 2008 GSP+ Scheme in the CIS since 2006, granting Equipment & Oil & Gas, Paper, 1.6% local companies the Plastic, 2.8% Pharmaceuticals, 1.3% Ferrous Metal Rail Cars, 3.9% 3.3% right to export 7,200 Sugar, 1.1% Cement, 5.6% Products, categories of goods Vessels & 2.7% Gems & duty-free Aircraft, 0.3% Ferrous Precious Metals, 4.1% Stones, 6.5%  Share of EU in exports Sugar, 0.5% Beverages, up to 26% from 17% in Pharmaceuticals, Spirits & Others, 39.2% 2003 3.3% Others, 16.3% Vinegar, 7.7%  Georgia Turkey FTA Vehicles, 7.6% Cereals, 3.3% was signed in 2008 Mechanical Fertilizers, Vehicles, Equipment & 6.7% 12.2% Ferrous Electrical Oil & Gas, Metals, 31.2% Coppers & Machinery, 18.3% Gold, 8.8% 20.1% Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia * Export & import of goods only www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 21 April 2009
    23. The Economy Remains Resilient • However global financial crisis slowed down Georgia’s economy, it showed another strong resilience due to the following reasons • IMF US$750 stand-by arrangement facility completed in early September 2008 • US$4.5 bn donor funding pledged in late October 2008 at the International Donors’ conference • Government of Georgia’s GEL 2.2 bn fiscal stimulus package for 2009 • Unlike its CIS and CEE peers, Georgia’s banking sector remained robust due to its high capital adequacy ratio (CAR) – average CAR for the past five years has been 19% • Georgia enjoys • Favorable public debt performance (total public debt as percent of GDP decreased form 56% in 2003 to 29% in 2008) • Flat, low and easy taxation system • Special taxation regimes introduced (international financial company, free industrial zone, free warehouse company) • Increasing integration into the global economy • Double-Taxation Treaties (DTT) with 24 countries • Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in effective discussion with many key countries • GSP+ with the EU extended • Energy supply stability www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 22 April 2009
    24. Economy’s Stimulus Package - GEL 2.2 bn, Social Package - GEL1.6 bn State Budget, GEL mln (including donors financing through budget) • Main roads (road dept.) 520 • Other roads (MCG, MDF) 180 • Water utilities 120 • Regional projects 150 • IDP housing 140 • Educational infrastructure 80 • Irrigation, river border construction 30 • Other 230 Subtotal 1,450 Tax decrease 250 Donor financing, outside of budget 500 Grand total 2,200 • New approach – increased social benefits for the most vulnerable Source: Mministry of Finance of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge 23 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    25. Favourable Public Debt Performance Breakdown of public debt Comments External public debt Internal public debt  Georgia’s economy is quite unleveraged compared to other Total public debt as % of GDP emerging market economies 4.0 60%  Georgia’s public debt is 29% of GDP in 2008 down from 56% in 50.5% 56.1% 3.5 50% 2003 0.78 3.0 0.97 40.0%  Paris club rescheduling in 2001 and 2004 40% 0.85 2.5  Georgia repaid all debt to China in 2006 and pre-paid all debt US$bn 0.83 0.89 0.85 32.0% 27.4% 2.0 30% to Austria 0.76 29.0% 25.5% 1.5  The external debt is all multilateral or bilateral and significant 20% 2.69 2.48 share is highly concessional 1.0 1.86 1.79 1.73 1.70 1.56 10%  This explains why the government debt service burden is low 0.5  Eurobonds debut issuance of US$500 mln in April 2008 0.0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia General government debt as % of GDP, 2007 External public debt service External debt service External debt service, as % of budget revenue Romania 13.0% 250 10% Ukraine 16.6% 8.8% Bulgaria 20.0% 200 8% 7.3% 7.1% Georgia ('07) 25.5% Georgia ('08)* 29.0% 150 6% US$ mln 5.4% Slovakia 29.4% 3.4% 100 4% Czech Republic 30.5% 190.9 152.2 Poland 47.3% 2.1% 110.6 103.8 102.1 50 2% 82.6 Turkey 52.3% Hungary 76.1% 0 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia * Increase in General government debt as percentage of GDP in 2008 is caused by Eurobond issuance Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia, Institute of International Finance www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 24 April 2009
    26. Robust Banking Sector 2009 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Dhabi Group  Georgia’s banking sector represents only a moderate contingent liability of the sovereign  Entirely privately owned since 1996  No restrictions on foreign ownership of banks  Well capitalised with average BIS capital adequacy ratio of 19% www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 25 April 2009
    27. Non-Performing Loans Loan loss reserve to total loans NPL to total loans FSA requirements Actual - Based on IMF's methodology 10% 9.0% 12.8% 14% 8.8% 12.5% 9% 11.1% 8.0% 12% 9.9% 7.5% 8% 10% 7% 8% 6% 6% 5.0% 4.1% 3.5% 5% 3.1% 3.1% 4.3% 4% 2.7% 2.4% 4% 1.0% 0.9% 2% 3% 0% Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA Equity to liabilities, 2008A Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) 23% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 13% 13% 15% 15% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 6% 5% 5% 0% 0% Greece Lithuania Georgia Latvia Estonia Russia Germany Ukraine Czech Croatia Bulgaria Mar-05 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Sep-03 Sep-07 Dec-03 Sep-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Dec-06 Dec-07 Sep-08 Dec-08 Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA Source: Latest data from the web-sites of Central Banks www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 26 April 2009
    28. Banking Sector Foreign Debt  Foreign financial support coming mainly from International Financial Institutions enables Georgian banking sector to pay off foreign liabilities without need to decrease loan portfolio. Foreign borrowings are long term, indicating predictability of their repayments Foreign debt refinancing Foreign debt outflow Banking Sector Cumulative Outflow Banking sector 350 296.2 Banking Sector Cumulative Inflow debt of US$296.2 748.6 800 252.2 721.4 300 mln, due in Q1 226.4 661.4 ‘09, has already 700 250 been repaid 579.8 712.0 600 648.1 200 US$ mln 500 US$ mln 548.5 150 99.7 400 63.8 60.6 58.3 100 54.0 300 42.9 36.6 33.8 25.7 21.7 21.4 15.6 296.2 50 200 9.1 100 0 Q 4 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 2 2012 Q 3 2012 Q 4 2012 Q 1 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 3 2009 Q 4 2009 Q 1 2010 Q 2 2010 Q 3 2010 Q 4 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 2 2011 Q 3 2011 0 Q 1 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 3 2009 Q 4 2009 Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 27 April 2009
    29. Banking Sector Resilience Increasing liquidity – donor financing Comments  The banking system adequately recognises risks, based IFIs financing (US$ mln) ‘08E* ‘09F on not only existing overdues and restructurings, but also forward looking approach, using in many sense more EBRD 220 200 conservative supervisory standards as compared to requirements of IFRS IFC 160 130  Regardless the crisis, shock absorbing capacity of the OPIC 80 NA banking system remains high. Especially taking into account around US$250 million further capital injection, FMO 10 NA which increases regulatory capital by 17%, and exceeds provisioning incurred in August-December Total 470 330 * Donors’ financing in 2008 has already been approved Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia Non-bank Deposits (local currency), 2008 Total Non-bank Deposits (local currency), 2008 3,800 Individuals Legal entities 2,000 3,573.4 3,541.4 3,600 1,900 GEL mln 3,400 3,285.4 1,800 GEL mln 3,186.0 1,700 3,108.6 3,200 3,066.0 1,600 3,000 1,500 2,800 1,400 October November September December August July October September December November August July Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA Source: National Bank of Georgia, FSA www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 28 April 2009
    30. Recent Reforms - Taxation ‘04A ‘05A ‘06A ‘07A ‘08F ‘09F ‘10F ‘11F ‘12F ‘13F Number of 21 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 Taxes VAT 20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% Social Tax + Social Tax + 12- 12% 12% 12% Income Tax Income Tax Income Tax 20% 18% 15% 15% 20% flat flat flat 32% 25% 20% Social Tax 33% 20% 20% 20% - - - - - - Corporate 20% 20% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Profit Tax Dividend 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 5% 5% 3% 0% 0% income tax  Out of 21 taxes under the former tax code, only 6 exist today  Tax rates reduction timetable has been further accelerated in key tax rates in 2008  This will provide a significant stimulus for the economy in 2009 and beyond  Georgia, over the last five years, has evolved into one of the most attractive low-tax jurisdictions in Europe www.georgia.gov.ge 29 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    31. Present Taxation System • The taxation framework in Georgia is as follows  Flat personal income tax of 20% decreasing to 15% by 2012  Corporate income tax of 15%  VAT of 18%  Property tax up to 1% on the self-assessed value of property  Interest income and dividend tax rates of 5% decreasing to 0% by 2012  0% dividend income tax on dividends from publicly-traded equities  0% tax on interest income from bank deposits and publicly-traded debt securities  No capital gains tax  No social insurance or similar taxes  No inheritance tax  No wealth tax  No stamp duty or other transaction-based taxes or levies www.georgia.gov.ge 30 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    32. 2008 Tax Misery Index  According to 2008 Tax Misery Index, release by Forbes Business & Financial News, Georgia is the fourth least tax burden country after Qatar, UAE and Hong Kong Since 1 January 2009, income tax declined to 20% from 25% Source: Forbes Business & Financial News www.georgia.gov.ge 31 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    33. Special Taxation Regimes Adopted • Special taxation systems have been adopted for the different regimes aimed at establishing new international financial institutions in the country, encourage economic growth, support sustainable development and the trade-transit function of Georgia An international financial Type of tax Free industrial zone Free warehouse company company (for International (from re-exporting of Corporate Income Tax (from financial services) 0% Companies) 0% foreign goods) 0% Value Added Tax 0% 0% 0% Customs Tax 0%, 5% or 12% 0% 0% Property Tax up to 1% 0% up to 1% Personal Income Tax 20% 20% 20% www.georgia.gov.ge Georgian Economy Overview 32 April 2009
    34. Increasing Integration Into the Global Economy  The taxation system in Georgia provides low, flat tax rates and double taxation avoidance treaties with 24 countries – a unique combination worldwide  FTA agreements with the CIS countries  FTA with Turkey  GSP+ with the EU  GSP with the US  Possible developments in the nearest future: Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia  FTA with EU  FTA with USA www.georgia.gov.ge 33 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    35. Secured Energy Supply • 5 year gas supply contract with Azerbaijan • 20 year gas supply contract with Shah Deniz • Transit role for oil & gas – pipelines and railway • The only country in the region (which doesn’t have its own gas resource) that was not effected by gas crises in January 2009 • NABUCCO project • Net electricity exporter • Construction of 500 kv. power transmission line to Turkey • Construction of 100 kv. power transmission line to Turkey • Construction of 78MW Faravani HPP • Construction of 38 MW Mtkvari HPP • Huge untapped hydro resources  Only 18% of the country’s hydro potential has been utilised  Huge, rapidly growing consumption rate and high tariffs in the Turkish electricity market • MOU with RAO UES on the Enguri HPP - RAO UES putting up its Georgian assets as collateral www.georgia.gov.ge 34 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    36. Oil & Gas Exploration & Transportation www.georgia.gov.ge 35 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    37. Power Supply of Georgia www.georgia.gov.ge 36 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    38. -8% -4% -2% -6% 2% 4% 8% 0% 6% -14% -10% -12% China 6.0% India 5.0% ** IMF's forecast Egypt 4.9% Peru 3.1% Georgia* 2.5% Indonesia 1.9% * Government of Georgia's forecast Georgia** 1.0% Russia 1.0% Switzerland 1.0% www.georgia.gov.ge Poland 0.7% Slovenia 0.5% Israel 0.4% Austria 0.3% Malaysia -0.3% Canada -0.7% Norway -1.0% Source: Economist (Economic and Financial Indicators - Output, prices and jobs) Sweden -1.0% Finland -1.3% Turkey -1.5% Denmark -1.7% Thailand -1.8% Georgian Economy Overview Euro Area -2.1% UK -2.6% Luxemburg -2.8% Hungary -3.0% Japan -3.2% New Zealand -3.2% Hong Kong -4.7% Lithuania -4.8% Ireland -4.8% Estonia -5.0% April 2009 South Korea -5.9% Taiwan -6.5% Singapore -7.2% Real GDP Growth Forecast for 2009 Iceland -9.7% Latvia-12.0% 37
    39. Committed to Continuing Reforms • In the medium-term, the Government intends to pursue the following strategic initiatives in order to sustain economic growth  Further lighten the tax burden over the next 4-5 years  Fully resolve the IDPs resettlement issues  Further develop Georgia’s infrastructure in order to increase efficiency in the economy and attract investment  Promote the creation of new jobs in the private sector  Further liberalise trade and reduce barriers to entry  Aggressive extension of the double taxation treaties footprint  Further encourage institutional de-regulation of the economy  Continue to privatise state property and promote transparency and efficiency in the management of state property  Enhanced independence of the judiciary  Support greater media openness www.georgia.gov.ge 38 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009
    40. Contacts Nika Gilauri Kakha Baindurashvili Prime Minister of Georgia Minister of Finance of Georgia +995 32 922 243 +995 32 446 444 ngilauri@geo.gov.ge k.baindurashvili@mof.ge Goga Melikidze Advisor to Prime Minister of Georgia +995 32 934 632 g.melikidze@mof.ge www.georgia.gov.ge 39 Georgian Economy Overview April 2009

    + Zurab MaisuradzeZurab Maisuradze, 7 months ago

    custom

    742 views, 1 favs, 1 embeds more stats

    Georgian Economy Overview - April 2009 - by Governm more

    More info about this document

    © All Rights Reserved

    Go to text version

    • Total Views 742
      • 737 on SlideShare
      • 5 from embeds
    • Comments 0
    • Favorites 1
    • Downloads 22
    Most viewed embeds
    • 5 views on http://gatewaygeorgia.blogspot.com

    more

    All embeds
    • 5 views on http://gatewaygeorgia.blogspot.com

    less

    Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
    Flag as inappropriate

    Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate. If needed, use the feedback form to let us know more details.

    Cancel
    File a copyright complaint
    Having problems? Go to our helpdesk?

    Categories