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<ul><li>Since the origins of the modern industrial organisation human resource planning has been </li></ul><ul><li>managem...
<ul><li>During the first part of the 20th century the focus :hourly production worker. The aim of improving efficiency thr...
VARIOUS DEFINITIONS OF HRP E.W. VETLER viewed HRP as “ A process by which an organization should have from its Current Man...
Coleman has defined HRP as “the process of determining manpower requirement and means for meeting those requirement in ord...
According to Beach “HRP is a process of Determining and assuming that the organisation will have an adequate number of qua...
<ul><li>OBJECTIVES OF HRP : </li></ul><ul><li>To ensure adequate supply of manpower as and  when  required. </li></ul><ul>...
<ul><li>OBJECTIVES OF HRP : </li></ul><ul><li>1. Forecast personnel requirement. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Cope with changes </...
<ul><li>GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE HRP   </li></ul><ul><li>Commitment & involvement of top management in  HRP. </li>...
Organisational objectgives Organisational objectives & policies HR Demand forecast HR supply forecast HR programming HRP i...
<ul><li>RATE OF GROWTH IN HUMAN RESOURCES IS DETERMINED BY 2 DIMENSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Quantity </li></ul><ul><li>Quali...
<ul><li>Population as a stimulant to economic development </li></ul><ul><li>1. In a backward economy, population growth re...
<ul><li>1. High Birth Rate: In India, although the birth rate has declined from 45.8 per </li></ul><ul><li>thousand during...
<ul><li>Fertility : The ratio of live births in an area to the population of that area; expressed per 1000 population per ...
<ul><li>Workers: persons whose main activity is participation in economically productive work by his mental or physical pr...
<ul><li>Labour force: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Self...
<ul><li>Quality of HR is determined by </li></ul><ul><li>Education & Training </li></ul><ul><li>Health & Nutrition </li></...
<ul><li>To assess the availability of hr needed for production. </li></ul><ul><li>To estimate the required basic infrastru...
<ul><li>Strict conformity to either of these concepts is not possible because of difficulties in enumeration. </li></ul><u...
<ul><li>•  Social Demand Approach  </li></ul><ul><li>•  Rate of Return Approach  </li></ul><ul><li>•  Manpower Requirement...
<ul><li>Projections of social demand for education are contingent upon given levels of:  </li></ul><ul><li>•  incomes of e...
<ul><li>Added to these constraints, there are the perennial problems associated with the data base on demographic aspects ...
<ul><li>Rate of return approach looks upon education as a contributor to productivity and in this sense, it is expected to...
<ul><li>To an economist, education is only a screening device in analysing the process of human capital formation  </li></ul>
<ul><li>.  </li></ul>•  Costs of education,  •  Returns to education, and  •  Discount rate (used in discounting future re...
<ul><li>a) Costs of Education  </li></ul><ul><li>Economic analysis of investment in education has a simple two-element tax...
<ul><li>Indirect costs  </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect cost may be viewed from both private and social angles. From the privat...
<ul><li>Direct monetary benefits (the extra life-time earnings received that can be attributed to schooling)  </li></ul><u...
<ul><li>•  either the rate of interest at which an individual borrows for financing education,  </li></ul><ul><li>•  or th...
<ul><li>The fundamental axiom of manpower requirements approach is that there is a definite link between education and eco...
<ul><li>In this approach an attempt is made to forecast future requirements of educated manpower to fulfil a future target...
<ul><li>The basic steps involved in this exercise are as under:  </li></ul><ul><li>•  Anticipating the directions and magn...
<ul><li>Need for HRP </li></ul><ul><li>Growing unemployment </li></ul><ul><li>Voluntary quits </li></ul><ul><li>Retirement...
<ul><li>ROLE OF HR PLANNER </li></ul><ul><li>To provide timely advice to the management on  the status of existing human r...
<ul><li>IMPORTANCE  OF HRP : </li></ul><ul><li>Meets organization need for right type of people in  right number at right ...
<ul><li>In Nutshell </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Career and succession plan. </li></...
HRP IDENTIFICATION OF  HUMAN RESOURCE  GAP HRP PROCESS ORGANISATIONAL OBJECTIVES, PLANS & POLICIES FORECASTING DEMAND FOR ...
<ul><li>Ratio Trend Analysis – Based on Time-series data   </li></ul><ul><li>Main emphasis is on production/sales </li></u...
Ratio-Trend Analysis  : Production level in 1999-2000 1,00,000 units No. of workers in 1999-2000 100 Ratio (Workers/Produc...
<ul><li>It is possible to measure work measurement to calculate the length of operations and the amount of labour required...
WORK-STUDY METHOD Planned output for next year 25000 units Standard hours per unit 4 Planned hours required for the year (...
<ul><li>MARKOV MODEL </li></ul><ul><li>1. determine the time that should be covered. shorter length of time are generally ...
Mathematical Model En = En  = the estinated level of personnel demand in  n  planning periods (e.g. years). Lagg  = the ov...
<ul><li>An organisation has received 1000 application for certain number of vacancies. So YR at various decision point wou...
ISSUES IN DEMAND FORECASTING <ul><li>Social Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Technological Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Political Fa...
<ul><li>Productivity rise cannot be attributable to increased human effort. Thus increase of productivty due to changes in...
<ul><li>SUPPLY FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons  :- </li></ul><ul><li>Helps to quantify the No. & position </li></ul>...
<ul><li>SUPPLY FORECASTING     (Preparing Manpower Inventory) </li></ul><ul><li>Objective : To find out the size and quali...
<ul><li>Present Employee </li></ul><ul><li>HR Inventory </li></ul><ul><li>Skill invntory </li></ul><ul><li>Manpower invent...
<ul><li>Understanding the exact wastage due to normal retirement . This will indicate the level of shrinkage in each work ...
<ul><li>Turnover analysis along with skills inventory may give indications of shortages of certain skills in the future an...
<ul><li>MICRO LEVEL FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>External Supply Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Internal Supply Forecastin...
<ul><li>Internal Movement resulting from Transfer and Promotion </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of Wastage :- </li></ul><ul><li...
2. STABILITY INDEX : Alternative method which takes into account the length of service of the persons leaving the organisa...
3. MODIFIED STABILITY INDEX :  (BOWEY’S STABILITY INDEX) BSI =  4. Turnover Analysis –  Method of measuring wastage  of Em...
5. ABSENTEEISM = 6. COHORT ANALYSIS :  Reverse of Turnover Analysis  Also known as Survivor Analysis Manpower Cohort is a ...
COHORT ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF AGE : The theory behind this method was developed by K.F. Lane and J.E. Andruo Eg. No. of ...
Survivor Analysis =  Length of service (in years) No. of Emp. Leaving No. of Emp. Remaining Survival as % age of leaving 0...
THE CENSUS METHODS : Here a snap shot of the total situation is taken at a particular point of time or over a short period...
5-6 18 3 0.167 0.833 0.26 6-7 24 4 0.167 0.833 0.216 7-8 10 2 0.2 0.8 0.172 8-9 15 3 0.2 0.8 0.137 9-10 8 1 0.125 0.875 0....
HUMAN RESOURCE INVENTORY PROMOTION IN REDEPLOYMENT IN EXTERNAL HIRING MERGER & ACQUISITION PROMOTION OUT REDEPLOY- MENT OU...
<ul><li>SKILLS INVENTORY </li></ul><ul><li>Employee Personal Data </li></ul><ul><li>Skills </li></ul><ul><li>Special Quali...
<ul><li>FACTORS AFFECTING INTERNAL LEVEL </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons for increase in Emp. Gr. </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion In...
<ul><li>Reasons for Decrease </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion Out </li></ul><ul><li>Redeployment Out </li></ul><ul><li>Voluntar...
x a b y Manpower LINEAR REGRESSION METHOD –  Describe the relationship between 2 variables. Production Output Manpower > T...
Manpower Soap Brand B Soap Brand A Multiple Regression Method   Manpower in the dependent variable 2 brands of Soap are in...
<ul><li>log n </li></ul>
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  1. 1. <ul><li>Since the origins of the modern industrial organisation human resource planning has been </li></ul><ul><li>management function (Walker, 1980). </li></ul><ul><li>Division of labour, </li></ul><ul><li>specialisation, </li></ul><ul><li>organisation of management into levels, </li></ul><ul><li>work simplification, </li></ul><ul><li>application of standards for selecting employees </li></ul><ul><li>measuring their performance </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>During the first part of the 20th century the focus :hourly production worker. The aim of improving efficiency through work engineering and early industrial psychology </li></ul><ul><li>During the Second World War and the post war years, the focus intensified on employee productivity. There was also greater concern regarding the availability of competent managerial personnel, as there was a talent shortage in combination with significant demand for goods and services </li></ul><ul><li>The 70s came with new legislation, court decisions and governmental regulations. Management attention then turned to affirmative action planning and other aspects of compliance </li></ul><ul><li>HRP during the early 90s fundamentally consisted of a range of tasks designed to ensure that the appropriate number of the right people are in the right place in the right time. HRP was seen as a way to plan for the future demand for people </li></ul>
  3. 3. VARIOUS DEFINITIONS OF HRP E.W. VETLER viewed HRP as “ A process by which an organization should have from its Current Manpower position to its desired manpower position.” According to Leon C.Megginson HRP “is an integrated approach to performing the planning aspect of the personnel function in order to have a sufficient supply of adequately developed and motivated people to perform the duties and tasks required to meet original objective and satisfy individual need & goals of organization.”
  4. 4. Coleman has defined HRP as “the process of determining manpower requirement and means for meeting those requirement in order to carry out integrated plans of the organisation. Stainer defines MPP as “Strategy for the acquisition, utilisation, improvement & preservation of an enterprises human resources.”
  5. 5. According to Beach “HRP is a process of Determining and assuming that the organisation will have an adequate number of qualified persons available at the proper time performing job which meet the needs of an enterprise and which provide satisfaction for the individual involved.
  6. 6. <ul><li>OBJECTIVES OF HRP : </li></ul><ul><li>To ensure adequate supply of manpower as and when required. </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure proper use of existing HR in the organisation. </li></ul><ul><li>Future forecast requirement of HR with different levels of skills. </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipate the impact of technology on jobs & requirement for HR. </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>OBJECTIVES OF HRP : </li></ul><ul><li>1. Forecast personnel requirement. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Cope with changes </li></ul><ul><li>3. Use existing manpower productively. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Promote employee in a systematic manner. </li></ul><ul><li>Importance </li></ul><ul><li>Reservation of Talent </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare people for future </li></ul><ul><li>Expand or Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Cut costs </li></ul><ul><li>Succession planning </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE HRP </li></ul><ul><li>Commitment & involvement of top management in HRP. </li></ul><ul><li>Greater participant of line manager at all levels in HRP process. </li></ul><ul><li>Effective design of HRIS integrated with MIS of the organisation. </li></ul><ul><li>Linking HRP with Corporate Strategic Management Process. </li></ul><ul><li>Flexibility in HR plans to take care of changing situation. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Organisational objectgives Organisational objectives & policies HR Demand forecast HR supply forecast HR programming HRP implementation Control and evaluation of programme Shortage Recruitment and selection Surplus Restricted hiring, VRS, layoff
  10. 10. <ul><li>RATE OF GROWTH IN HUMAN RESOURCES IS DETERMINED BY 2 DIMENSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Quantity </li></ul><ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Quantity of HR is determined by </li></ul><ul><li>Population policy (population growth such as fertility, marriage and mortality) </li></ul><ul><li>Population structure (sex ratio and age composition) </li></ul><ul><li>Migration </li></ul><ul><li>Labour force participation </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Population as a stimulant to economic development </li></ul><ul><li>1. In a backward economy, population growth results in increase in </li></ul><ul><li>supply of labour. This in turn results in the availability of cheap labour in the economy. Therefore, under a given technology with the availability of capital, production can be increased by increasing the labour use. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Population growth results in increased demand for products. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased demand results in increased production, employment and income in the economy. As a result, the economy will develop. </li></ul><ul><li>3. Due to population growth, the supply of goods and services </li></ul><ul><li>increases. Increased supply results in increased production, which in turn </li></ul><ul><li>results in specialisation. Specialisation will induce technological improvements. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Increased demand and increased supply of products result in scarcity </li></ul><ul><li>of resources, which induce technological improvements. </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>1. High Birth Rate: In India, although the birth rate has declined from 45.8 per </li></ul><ul><li>thousand during the period 1891-1900 to about 25.8 per thousand in 2001, </li></ul><ul><li>it is still considered to be substantially high </li></ul><ul><li>Low Death Rate </li></ul><ul><li>Early Marriage </li></ul><ul><li>Grinding poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Social and Religious reasons </li></ul><ul><li>Standard of living </li></ul><ul><li>Illiteracy </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>Fertility : The ratio of live births in an area to the population of that area; expressed per 1000 population per year </li></ul><ul><li>Mortality: The ratio of deaths in an area to the population of that area; expressed per 1000 per year </li></ul><ul><li>Migration :The movement of persons from one country or locality to another. </li></ul><ul><li>If net migration is positive, the population grows at a faster rate than that indicated by the natural growth </li></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>Workers: persons whose main activity is participation in economically productive work by his mental or physical presence. </li></ul><ul><li>Non workers: </li></ul><ul><li>fulltime students </li></ul><ul><li>persons engaged in house hold duties </li></ul><ul><li>infants and dependents doing no work </li></ul><ul><li>retired persons and rentiers giving no rent on an agricultural or non agricultural royalty </li></ul><ul><li>beggars, vagrants & others with unspecified sources of income. </li></ul><ul><li>un employed but available for work </li></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>Labour force: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-employed persons and those engaged in family enterprises without pay </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Labour force participation rate: labour force/total population*100 </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. <ul><li>Quality of HR is determined by </li></ul><ul><li>Education & Training </li></ul><ul><li>Health & Nutrition </li></ul><ul><li>Equality of opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Population in categorised into </li></ul><ul><li>de facto (complete count) </li></ul><ul><li>de jure (physically present) </li></ul>
  17. 17. <ul><li>To assess the availability of hr needed for production. </li></ul><ul><li>To estimate the required basic infrastructure. </li></ul><ul><li>To estimate the requirments of products and services. </li></ul><ul><li>To understand the social and cultural structure of a population. </li></ul><ul><li>To compare with the population of other countries. </li></ul><ul><li>To assess the quality of standards of living </li></ul>
  18. 18. <ul><li>Strict conformity to either of these concepts is not possible because of difficulties in enumeration. </li></ul><ul><li>Nationals living abroad </li></ul><ul><li>Nomadic population </li></ul><ul><li>Jungle inhabitants </li></ul><ul><li>Population in disturbed areas </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of hr is dependent on the growth of population </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>• Social Demand Approach </li></ul><ul><li>• Rate of Return Approach </li></ul><ul><li>• Manpower Requirement Approach. </li></ul>
  20. 20. <ul><li>Projections of social demand for education are contingent upon given levels of: </li></ul><ul><li>• incomes of educated people, </li></ul><ul><li>• tastes and preferences of households for education, </li></ul><ul><li>• demographic characteristics such as fertility and mortality, </li></ul><ul><li>• direct costs of education, </li></ul><ul><li>• student grants, and </li></ul><ul><li>• existing standards of admissions to various levels of education </li></ul>
  21. 21. <ul><li>Added to these constraints, there are the perennial problems associated with the data base on demographic aspects at disaggregated levels such as district, block and village, and data on wastage and stagnation in education, and intensity of utilisation of existing educational facilities </li></ul>
  22. 22. <ul><li>Rate of return approach looks upon education as a contributor to productivity and in this sense, it is expected to facilitate investment decisions in education – whether or not the student should undergo more schooling, or whether or not the state should invest more and expand educational facilities </li></ul>
  23. 23. <ul><li>To an economist, education is only a screening device in analysing the process of human capital formation </li></ul>
  24. 24. <ul><li>. </li></ul>• Costs of education, • Returns to education, and • Discount rate (used in discounting future returns to arrive at present value).
  25. 25. <ul><li>a) Costs of Education </li></ul><ul><li>Economic analysis of investment in education has a simple two-element taxonomy of cost: </li></ul><ul><li>Direct costs and </li></ul><ul><li>indirect costs </li></ul><ul><li>DIRECT COSTS again have two components: private expenditure on education (as tuition fees, cost of books, extra room and board expenses and out-of-pocket expenses) </li></ul><ul><li>public expenditure on education. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>recurring items of expenditure ( salaries of teaching and non-teaching staff, maintenance expenditure, office expenses including contingencies, library books, lab equipments and expenditure on student welfare) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>non-recurring items of expenditure (costs of buildings and sports complex, etc. </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. <ul><li>Indirect costs </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect cost may be viewed from both private and social angles. From the private angle it is the earning foregone by individual students while attending school </li></ul><ul><li>Social view point of indirect costs involves estimation of opportunity cost of public expenditure on education </li></ul>
  27. 27. <ul><li>Direct monetary benefits (the extra life-time earnings received that can be attributed to schooling) </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect monetary benefits (the skills and experience) and </li></ul><ul><li>Non-monetary benefits (higher prestige and greater independence, and less of stress and strain ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Education reduces crime and improves social order </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Causes better understanding and appreceation of the importance of health and hygiene thus leading to health standards of the society. </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. <ul><li>• either the rate of interest at which an individual borrows for financing education, </li></ul><ul><li>• or the rate of return from the best possible alternative to investment in education. </li></ul>
  29. 29. <ul><li>The fundamental axiom of manpower requirements approach is that there is a definite link between education and economic growth, and that lack of skilled manpower in required numbers which impedes (hinders) growth. </li></ul>
  30. 30. <ul><li>In this approach an attempt is made to forecast future requirements of educated manpower to fulfil a future target of Gross National Product (GNP) or specific targets of industrial production. </li></ul><ul><li>Based on the forecasts of educated manpower requirements over a specified period, the planners would then indicate the directions of development of the educational sector over the same specified period </li></ul>
  31. 31. <ul><li>The basic steps involved in this exercise are as under: </li></ul><ul><li>• Anticipating the directions and magnitude of development of each individual sector of the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>• Evolving norms for employing manpower in each individual sector keeping in view the technological options – present as well as future – for each sector of the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>• Estimating the educational equivalents of the manpower requirements. </li></ul><ul><li>• Analysing the implications of estimates of educated manpower requirements for educational development; based on assumptions regarding enrollment rates, transition probabilities, and wastage and stagnation rates at each level of education . </li></ul>
  32. 32. <ul><li>Need for HRP </li></ul><ul><li>Growing unemployment </li></ul><ul><li>Voluntary quits </li></ul><ul><li>Retirement </li></ul><ul><li>Death </li></ul><ul><li>Marriages </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion, Transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Technological change </li></ul><ul><li>Expansion & Diversification </li></ul>Work Force Turnover
  33. 33. <ul><li>ROLE OF HR PLANNER </li></ul><ul><li>To provide timely advice to the management on the status of existing human resources in the enterprise. </li></ul><ul><li>To understood the need of the enterprise in terms of quantity and quality of employees required in the short as well as long run. </li></ul><ul><li>To evolve strategies for the effective utilisation of internal resources including process improvements, original restructuring, automation, training etc. </li></ul><ul><li>To evolve hiring strategies in order to acquire the right resources at the right time. </li></ul>
  34. 34. <ul><li>IMPORTANCE OF HRP : </li></ul><ul><li>Meets organization need for right type of people in right number at right times. </li></ul><ul><li>HRP helps the organisation create and develop T&D for employees & Managers. </li></ul><ul><li>Provides multiple gains to the employees. </li></ul><ul><li>Systematic HRP forces top management of an organisation to participate actively in total HRM function. </li></ul>
  35. 35. <ul><li>In Nutshell </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Career and succession plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Separation plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Organisation development and restructuring plans. </li></ul><ul><li>Hiring plans. </li></ul><ul><li>Employee Retention plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Re-deployment plans. </li></ul>
  36. 36. HRP IDENTIFICATION OF HUMAN RESOURCE GAP HRP PROCESS ORGANISATIONAL OBJECTIVES, PLANS & POLICIES FORECASTING DEMAND FOR HUMAN RESOURCES FORECASTING SUPPLY OF HUMAN RESOURCES SURPLUS HUMAN RESOURCES SHORTAGE OF HUMAN RESOURCES ACTION PLAN FOR BRIDGING GAP
  37. 37. <ul><li>Ratio Trend Analysis – Based on Time-series data </li></ul><ul><li>Main emphasis is on production/sales </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio between direct operatives and other personnel. </li></ul><ul><li>Total output / No. of workers </li></ul><ul><li>Total sales volume / No. of sales person </li></ul><ul><li>Delphi Technique </li></ul><ul><li>Named after the ancient Greek oracle at the city of DELPHI </li></ul><ul><li>Method of forecasting personnel needs </li></ul><ul><li>Members are asked to provide their estimates of HR requirement through a designed questionnaire. </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluation of Questionnaire </li></ul><ul><li>Each member receive the copy of the result </li></ul><ul><li>After viewing the result, members are again asked to review their estimates. </li></ul>
  38. 38. Ratio-Trend Analysis : Production level in 1999-2000 1,00,000 units No. of workers in 1999-2000 100 Ratio (Workers/Production) 100/100000 or 1:1000 No. of Supervisors in 1999-2000 10 Ratio (Supervisor/worker) 10/100 or 1:10 Estimated production in 2000-01 1,20,000 units No. of workers required in 2000-01 1,20,000*1 1000 = 120 No. of supervisor required 110*120 =12
  39. 39. <ul><li>It is possible to measure work measurement to calculate the length of operations and the amount of labour required. </li></ul>
  40. 40. WORK-STUDY METHOD Planned output for next year 25000 units Standard hours per unit 4 Planned hours required for the year (25000x4) 1,00,000 Productive hours per worker/year 2,000 (after allowing normal overtime, absenteeism and idle time) No. of Workers’ Required = =1,00,000/50= 50 workers
  41. 41. <ul><li>MARKOV MODEL </li></ul><ul><li>1. determine the time that should be covered. shorter length of time are generally more accurates than longer ones. </li></ul><ul><li>Establish categories, also called states, to which employees can be assigned. These categories must not overlap and must take into account every possible category to which an individual can be assigned. </li></ul>
  42. 42. Mathematical Model En = En = the estinated level of personnel demand in n planning periods (e.g. years). Lagg = the overall or aggregate level of current business activity in rupees. G is the total growth in business activity anticipated through period n in today’s rupees. x = the average productivity improvement anticipated from today through planning period n (e.g. if x = 1.08, it means an average productivity improvement of 8%). y = a conversion figure relating today’s overall activity to personnel required (total level of today’s business activity divided by the current number of personnel). It reflects the level of business activity per person.
  43. 43. <ul><li>An organisation has received 1000 application for certain number of vacancies. So YR at various decision point would be :- </li></ul><ul><li>Screening of application (900 qualified) YR = 9:10 </li></ul><ul><li>Selection test (700 appeared) YR = 7:9 </li></ul><ul><li>Test Result (300 passed) YR = 3:7 </li></ul><ul><li>Interview (100 passed) YR = 1:3 </li></ul><ul><li>Jobs offered to 50 YR = 1:2 </li></ul><ul><li>Joined 40 YR = 4:5 </li></ul><ul><li>Total YR 40 : 1000 or 4 : 10 </li></ul>
  44. 44. ISSUES IN DEMAND FORECASTING <ul><li>Social Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Technological Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Political Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Factors </li></ul>
  45. 45. <ul><li>Productivity rise cannot be attributable to increased human effort. Thus increase of productivty due to changes in technology or managerial efficiency are the factors needed to be integrated while doing manpower forecasting. </li></ul><ul><li>Is difficult to get units of output in the same form for all jobs. Eg maintainance, customer relationship management. </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in output may lead to economies of scale and resultant cost efficiency and rise in productivty, which may not be attributable to manpwer productivty </li></ul><ul><li>HRIS MAY NOT EXIST IN an org. </li></ul><ul><li>Employees cannot be always be related to output in a direct way. </li></ul><ul><li>Data on past workload may not be available </li></ul>
  46. 46. <ul><li>SUPPLY FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons :- </li></ul><ul><li>Helps to quantify the No. & position </li></ul><ul><li>Access Existing staff levels in different parts of the organization. </li></ul><ul><li>Prevent shortages of human resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Supply Analysis covers : </li></ul><ul><li>Present Employment </li></ul><ul><li>Internal supply </li></ul><ul><li>External supply </li></ul>
  47. 47. <ul><li>SUPPLY FORECASTING (Preparing Manpower Inventory) </li></ul><ul><li>Objective : To find out the size and quality of personnel available within the organisation and outside the organisation. </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons : </li></ul><ul><li>Helps quantify number of people and position expected to be available in future. </li></ul><ul><li>Access existing staff levels in different parts of the organisation. </li></ul><ul><li>Prevents shortages of HR. </li></ul>
  48. 48. <ul><li>Present Employee </li></ul><ul><li>HR Inventory </li></ul><ul><li>Skill invntory </li></ul><ul><li>Manpower inventory </li></ul><ul><li>HRI involves : </li></ul><ul><li>Categorisation of Age. One can study average age, average distribution, min. and max.age by job categories, functions, skills, qualifications etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Segmentation of Employee by function, Job Group, Departments, Skills </li></ul><ul><li>Categorisation by gender, religion, ethnic group, language </li></ul><ul><li>Categorisation by performance level. </li></ul><ul><li>Segmentation by organisational hierarchy. </li></ul><ul><li>Segmentation by Salary Group. </li></ul>
  49. 49. <ul><li>Understanding the exact wastage due to normal retirement . This will indicate the level of shrinkage in each work group that is likely to take place during the plan period. </li></ul><ul><li>Comparing the average age of fresh recruits with the average age of the organisation , one can draw the inference on the rate of growth of the employees thus eflecting on the promotion policies of the enterprise </li></ul><ul><li>Comparing various work groups will indicate the comparative growth rates , levels of fresh intake, stagnation </li></ul>
  50. 50. <ul><li>Turnover analysis along with skills inventory may give indications of shortages of certain skills in the future and also provide supply position in the market. </li></ul><ul><li>Performance ratings and skill inventory can togeter enable the enterprise to draw appropriate training strategies and determine the quality of personnel to be hired in future . </li></ul><ul><li>Matching skills with knowledge inventory of employees with their job description can indicate over and under qualified personnel. </li></ul>
  51. 51. <ul><li>MICRO LEVEL FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>External Supply Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Internal Supply Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>External Supply arises primarily through recruitment which is necessarily meant to augment internal supply. </li></ul><ul><li>Internal Supply within an organisation is governed by two factors. </li></ul><ul><li>Wastage – The out movement from the organisation caused by Voluntary Resignation, Death or Retirement. </li></ul>
  52. 52. <ul><li>Internal Movement resulting from Transfer and Promotion </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of Wastage :- </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Manpower </li></ul><ul><li>Wastage = </li></ul><ul><li>Drawback </li></ul><ul><li>Does not provide any meaningful indication for HRP </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to assess the operational and financial implication of any given rate of wastage. </li></ul>
  53. 53. 2. STABILITY INDEX : Alternative method which takes into account the length of service of the persons leaving the organisation, termed as Stability Index. Stability Index measures the compliment of Wastage Rate i.e. Rate of Retention =
  54. 54. 3. MODIFIED STABILITY INDEX : (BOWEY’S STABILITY INDEX) BSI = 4. Turnover Analysis – Method of measuring wastage of Employee Annual Employee Turnover Rate =
  55. 55. 5. ABSENTEEISM = 6. COHORT ANALYSIS : Reverse of Turnover Analysis Also known as Survivor Analysis Manpower Cohort is a Group of staff who are more or less Homogenous and who joined the organisation at the same time. At the end of each year the number of emp. From the Cohort who survive is calculated and expressed as a Y. age of total no. of Emp. Hired when the Cohort was formed.
  56. 56. COHORT ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF AGE : The theory behind this method was developed by K.F. Lane and J.E. Andruo Eg. No. of employee engaged in the beginning of a year = 50 No. of employee leavers for different length of service as 1 st Year = 50 2 nd Year = 45 3 rd Year = 40 4 th Year = 35 5 th Year = 30
  57. 57. Survivor Analysis = Length of service (in years) No. of Emp. Leaving No. of Emp. Remaining Survival as % age of leaving 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 50 45 40 35 30 500 450 405 365 330 300 100.00 90.00 81.00 73.00 66.00 60.00 100 . Re . x start the at engaged of No time given a at maining of No
  58. 58. THE CENSUS METHODS : Here a snap shot of the total situation is taken at a particular point of time or over a short period of time and data on leavers with completed length of service is obtained. Length of service on 01.01.95 in years # of Emp. As on 01.01.95 # Emp. Separated during 95 Turnover Rate Survival Rate Survival Function 0-1 20 6 0.3 0.7 0.7 2-3 20 4 0.2 0.8 0.56 3-4 25 5 0.2 0.8 0.448 4-5 10 3 0.3 0.7 0.313
  59. 59. 5-6 18 3 0.167 0.833 0.26 6-7 24 4 0.167 0.833 0.216 7-8 10 2 0.2 0.8 0.172 8-9 15 3 0.2 0.8 0.137 9-10 8 1 0.125 0.875 0.119 10-11 16 1 0.16 0.84 0.099 11-12 18 1 0.555 0.445 0.044 12-13 10 0 0 1 0.044 13-14 17 0 0 1 0.044 14-15 7 1 0.143 0.857 0.037 Total 218 34 0.156 0.844 Length of service on 01.01.95 in years # of Emp. As on 01.01.95 # Emp. Separated during 95 Turnover Rate Survival Rate Survival Function
  60. 60. HUMAN RESOURCE INVENTORY PROMOTION IN REDEPLOYMENT IN EXTERNAL HIRING MERGER & ACQUISITION PROMOTION OUT REDEPLOY- MENT OUT VOLUNTARY SEPARA- TION RETIRE MENT INVENT- ARY SEPARA- TION LONG ILLNESS DEATH
  61. 61. <ul><li>SKILLS INVENTORY </li></ul><ul><li>Employee Personal Data </li></ul><ul><li>Skills </li></ul><ul><li>Special Qualification </li></ul><ul><li>Company Data (Benefit Plan Data, Retirement Information, Seniority) </li></ul><ul><li>Salary & Job History </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity of Individual </li></ul><ul><li>Special preference of Individual (Geographical location, Type of Job) </li></ul>
  62. 62. <ul><li>FACTORS AFFECTING INTERNAL LEVEL </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons for increase in Emp. Gr. </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion In </li></ul><ul><li>Redeployment In </li></ul><ul><li>External Hiring </li></ul><ul><li>Mergers & Acquisition </li></ul>
  63. 63. <ul><li>Reasons for Decrease </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion Out </li></ul><ul><li>Redeployment Out </li></ul><ul><li>Voluntary Separation </li></ul><ul><li>Retirement </li></ul><ul><li>Involuntary Separation </li></ul><ul><li>Prolong Idleness, Death </li></ul>
  64. 64. x a b y Manpower LINEAR REGRESSION METHOD – Describe the relationship between 2 variables. Production Output Manpower > Two variables Production Level If the level of output that an enterprise expects in specified, it is possible to use this method to forecast the level of manpower that will be required.
  65. 65. Manpower Soap Brand B Soap Brand A Multiple Regression Method Manpower in the dependent variable 2 brands of Soap are independent.  3 variables are considered, a 3 dimensional space is created.
  66. 66. <ul><li>log n </li></ul>
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