Stability During the Grand Transformations


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Speech at the Transatlantic Week, Washington DC, Apr. 25-28, 2010.

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Stability During the Grand Transformations

  1. 1. Stability During the Grand Transformations Transatlantic WeekWashington DC, April 26, 2010<br />dr. Žiga Turkprofessor, University of Ljubljana, SloveniaSecretary General, Reflection Group on the Future of EU, Brussels.<br />
  2. 2. Thegrandtransformations<br />A – abundance and automation<br />B – BRICs and globalization, de-nationalisation<br />C – climate change and energy<br />D – demography<br />E – e-verything<br />
  3. 3. ABCDE: Abundance and Automation<br />
  4. 4. ABCDE: GDPin 1500 – (BR)IC<br />
  5. 5. ABCDE: GDP1960<br />
  6. 6. ABCDE: GDP Trends<br />
  7. 7. ABCDE: - Climate change and energy<br />
  8. 8. ABCDE:Demography<br />
  9. 9. ABCDE:eCommunication<br />
  10. 10. ABCDE are<br />just the beginning<br />point of singularity<br />deeper reasons behind the current crisis<br />global in nature<br />long term, even historic<br />
  11. 11. ABCDEare historic …<br />A – end of industrial, information age, dawn of creative economy<br />B – end of the dominance of the West<br />C – end of below ground energy and fossil fuels<br />D – end of a population growth<br />E – end of paper based society, dawn of digital society<br />
  12. 12. parchment available to few<br />
  13. 13. paper, available for anything …<br />
  14. 14. Communication revolutions disruptingsociety<br />before<br />life sequential: education, then work, then retirement<br />go to work in your country, under your laws, social system<br />mass media connecting society<br />mass education for mass production<br />politicstop of the pyramid<br />after<br />life parallel: earn, work and retire a little<br />work anywhere,for anyone,unclear social rights<br />niche media fragmenting society<br />customized education for customized services<br />politics in the middle of the circle<br />
  15. 15. Paper communication broadly available: representative democracy (revolution)<br />
  16. 16. Electronic communication available to all (revolution)<br />
  17. 17. Key Resource of the Future: People<br />
  18. 18. People (human capital) challenges …<br />quantity … because numbers will matter<br />quality … because we will not have the numbers<br />empowerment … because its no point having human capital sitting idle<br />18<br />
  19. 19. Quantity?<br />
  20. 20. Quality? The (education) world is flat!<br />%<br />1<br />13<br />1<br />27<br />1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004<br />3. Includingsome ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.<br />
  21. 21. Quality? Scientific output:<br />
  22. 22. Empowerment<br />never before was so much education, information, knowledge, contact to other people … available to so many<br />citizens free to exercise their talent<br />institutions openfor knowledge, talent on the outside <br />
  23. 23. Values that empower<br />we in the West will not have the quantity<br />we will not be the only ones with quality<br />everybody in the world knows education, innovation is important<br />but we have a culture, tradition, values that empower<br />respect for the individual<br />freedom<br />democracy<br />these values empower, especially in an information economy and economy of meaning<br />
  24. 24. “North America and Europe ... are predestined to work together because they share history, the same background and values.”<br />Jacques Chirac<br />
  25. 25. Acknowledgements<br />photos:Google photo search, Flickr, EU, RemKoolHaas …<br />charts:Erste Bank, Stanford University, OECD, WEO, IMF, NASA <br />more information, author contact at<br /><br />