Stability During the Grand Transformations

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Speech at the Transatlantic Week, Washington DC, Apr. 25-28, 2010.

Speech at the Transatlantic Week, Washington DC, Apr. 25-28, 2010.

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  • 1. Stability During the Grand Transformations Transatlantic WeekWashington DC, April 26, 2010
    dr. Žiga Turkprofessor, University of Ljubljana, SloveniaSecretary General, Reflection Group on the Future of EU, Brussels.
  • 2. Thegrandtransformations
    A – abundance and automation
    B – BRICs and globalization, de-nationalisation
    C – climate change and energy
    D – demography
    E – e-verything
  • 3. ABCDE: Abundance and Automation
  • 4. ABCDE: GDPin 1500 – (BR)IC
  • 5. ABCDE: GDP1960
  • 6. ABCDE: GDP Trends
  • 7. ABCDE: - Climate change and energy
  • 8. ABCDE:Demography
  • 9. ABCDE:eCommunication
  • 10. ABCDE are
    just the beginning
    point of singularity
    deeper reasons behind the current crisis
    global in nature
    long term, even historic
  • 11. ABCDEare historic …
    A – end of industrial, information age, dawn of creative economy
    B – end of the dominance of the West
    C – end of below ground energy and fossil fuels
    D – end of a population growth
    E – end of paper based society, dawn of digital society
  • 12. parchment available to few
  • 13. paper, available for anything …
  • 14. Communication revolutions disruptingsociety
    before
    life sequential: education, then work, then retirement
    go to work in your country, under your laws, social system
    mass media connecting society
    mass education for mass production
    politicstop of the pyramid
    after
    life parallel: earn, work and retire a little
    work anywhere,for anyone,unclear social rights
    niche media fragmenting society
    customized education for customized services
    politics in the middle of the circle
  • 15. Paper communication broadly available: representative democracy (revolution)
  • 16. Electronic communication available to all (revolution)
  • 17. Key Resource of the Future: People
  • 18. People (human capital) challenges …
    quantity … because numbers will matter
    quality … because we will not have the numbers
    empowerment … because its no point having human capital sitting idle
    18
  • 19. Quantity?
  • 20. Quality? The (education) world is flat!
    %
    1
    13
    1
    27
    1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004
    3. Includingsome ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
  • 21. Quality? Scientific output:
  • 22. Empowerment
    never before was so much education, information, knowledge, contact to other people … available to so many
    citizens free to exercise their talent
    institutions openfor knowledge, talent on the outside
  • 23. Values that empower
    we in the West will not have the quantity
    we will not be the only ones with quality
    everybody in the world knows education, innovation is important
    but we have a culture, tradition, values that empower
    respect for the individual
    freedom
    democracy
    these values empower, especially in an information economy and economy of meaning
  • 24. “North America and Europe ... are predestined to work together because they share history, the same background and values.”
    Jacques Chirac
  • 25. Acknowledgements
    photos:Google photo search, Flickr, EU, RemKoolHaas …
    charts:Erste Bank, Stanford University, OECD, WEO, IMF, NASA
    more information, author contact at
    www.zTurk.com