Future Of Europe: The Next Big Challenge


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slides from keynote lecture at Eurobarometer Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 28.9.2009

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  • oni diagram, kako se vloga evrope manjša
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  • Future Of Europe: The Next Big Challenge

    1. 1. Future of Europe:The next big challenge?<br />dr. Žiga Turk Eurobarometer Conference, <br />Gothenburg, Sweden, 28.9.2009<br />
    2. 2. Disclaimer<br />Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of the organizations he is affiliated with.<br />
    3. 3. Europeans hope:2/3 are optimistic about the future! <br />Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or very pessimistic about the future of the European Union?<br />
    4. 4. The young are more optimistic than the old<br />
    5. 5. And life may not even be easier …<br />
    6. 6. What if we ask Google?<br />
    7. 7. We have to do something about it! Let&apos;s reinvent the continent!<br />
    8. 8. On this continent we set up a committee:<br />to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. <br />strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, <br />enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, <br />the rule of law, <br />sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, <br />global stability, <br />migration, <br />energy and climate protection, <br />and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. <br />particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs.<br />Left to right: Monti, Notsat, Munz, Koolhas, Freiberga, Gonzales, Nicolaidis, (Turk), Ollila, Friie, Schuster, Walesa (Lambert missing)<br />
    9. 9. First idea fn the group in 2007,in the good old times …<br />Schengen, EU expansion, Euro, both a success<br />Lisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settled<br />economic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy <br />soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda<br />
    10. 10. … the sky was the limit<br />Mark Leonhard: &quot;we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worlds&quot;. <br />Jeremy Rifkin: &quot;Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world.&quot; <br />long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe (2020-2030)<br />economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 (2010-2020)<br />
    11. 11. In the past: remarkable achievements of the European idea<br />Peace in the West<br />Democracy and human right in the East<br />Reunification of East and West<br />What is next?<br />11<br />
    12. 12. Then the Crises Hit<br />institutional crisis<br />treaty stuck in Ireland<br />climate crisis<br />somehow forgotten,<br />&quot;temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will return&quot;<br />financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisis<br />The end of dream and the return of reality<br />
    13. 13. The key reasons for the crisis and the “key issues and developments” are the same<br />Abundance, conceptual economy<br />Greenspan: &quot;almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideas&quot;<br />BRICS, shifting of center of gravity of global economy<br />after 300 years, re-emergence of China as #1 economy<br />Climate change. peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution <br />100 years since the 2nd (oil)<br />price of oil up<br />consumer inflation<br />tightening of monetary plicy<br />boom!<br />Demography, ageing <br />in the West, Japan, also China<br />investing money to pay for old age pensions<br />in the epicenter of crisis<br />
    14. 14. Abundance, conceptual economy:Where is the demand to drive recovery?<br />
    15. 15. BRICs: Share of EU in global population and GDP<br />15<br />
    16. 16. Climate change<br />IPCC prediction<br />
    17. 17. Demography<br />17<br />
    18. 18. How these might be addressed?With policies across sectors:<br />18<br />
    19. 19. Resources to address the ABCD challenges<br />The Sun<br />For sustainable future<br />The People<br />Quality – education, care for talent, technological development and creativity<br />Quantity – meeting the demographic challenge<br />Impact – empowering and giving opportunities<br />The Union<br />“Global problems require global solutions”<br />Europe as a tool<br />Member states, the Union, the World<br />
    20. 20. So what is the next big story?<br />Peace, democracy, unification were big … but internal, European stories<br />ABCD ...<br />Abundance causing conceptual economy, not industrial <br />BRICs and globalization, rise of Asia<br />Climate change asking for an energy revolution<br />Demographic change<br />… are big global stories. Global!<br />The West is smaller<br />Internal Western stories are small stories<br />The big issues, the ABCD, are global issues …<br />20<br />
    21. 21. The only big European story is our role in the world<br />Will the Union be a player<br />… to promote its values, principles, interests<br />… set the rules of the game<br />Or will the EU continue to be less than the sum of its parts<br />21<br />
    22. 22. Ali Evropa potrebuje velike zgodbe? Stabilnost v gibanju?<br />22<br />
    23. 23. To conclude …<br />Oscar Wilde:<br />“Public Opinion ... is an attempt to organize the ignorance of the community and to elevate it to the dignity of physical force.” <br />Europeans are certainly not ignorant about their hope for a good future<br />Political leadership must deliver on that hope. Tom Landry:<br />“Leadership is getting someone to do what they don&apos;t want to do, to achieve what they do want to achieve.”<br />The Union, as it is, is one of the few tools we have to deliver on the hope<br />But a tool is just a tool, and tools depend on the user.<br />
    24. 24. Ziga.turk@gmail.comwww.zturk.com <br />Thank you!<br />