Future of Europe:The next big challenge?dr. Žiga Turk Eurobarometer Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 28.9.2009

DisclaimerViews expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of the organizations he is affiliated with.

Europeans hope:2/3 are optimistic about the future! Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or very pessimistic about the future of the European Union?

The young are more optimistic than the old

And life may not even be easier …

What if we ask Google?

We have to do something about it! Let's reinvent the continent!

On this continent we set up a committee:to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, the rule of law, sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, global stability, migration, energy and climate protection, and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs.Left to right: Monti, Notsat, Munz, Koolhas, Freiberga, Gonzales, Nicolaidis, (Turk), Ollila, Friie, Schuster, Walesa (Lambert missing)

First idea fn the group in 2007,in the good old times …Schengen, EU expansion, Euro, both a successLisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settledeconomic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda

… the sky was the limitMark Leonhard: "we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worlds". Jeremy Rifkin: "Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world." long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe (2020-2030)economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 (2010-2020)

In the past: remarkable achievements of the European ideaPeace in the WestDemocracy and human right in the EastReunification of East and WestWhat is next?11

Then the Crises Hitinstitutional crisistreaty stuck in Irelandclimate crisissomehow forgotten,"temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will return"financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisisThe end of dream and the return of reality

The key reasons for the crisis and the “key issues and developments” are the sameAbundance, conceptual economyGreenspan: "almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideas"BRICS, shifting of center of gravity of global economyafter 300 years, re-emergence of China as #1 economyClimate change. peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution 100 years since the 2nd (oil)price of oil upconsumer inflationtightening of monetary plicyboom!Demography, ageing in the West, Japan, also Chinainvesting money to pay for old age pensionsin the epicenter of crisis

Abundance, conceptual economy:Where is the demand to drive recovery?

BRICs: Share of EU in global population and GDP15

Climate changeIPCC prediction

Demography17

How these might be addressed?With policies across sectors:18

Resources to address the ABCD challengesThe SunFor sustainable futureThe PeopleQuality – education, care for talent, technological development and creativityQuantity – meeting the demographic challengeImpact – empowering and giving opportunitiesThe Union“Global problems require global solutions”Europe as a toolMember states, the Union, the World

So what is the next big story?Peace, democracy, unification were big … but internal, European storiesABCD ...Abundance causing conceptual economy, not industrial BRICs and globalization, rise of AsiaClimate change asking for an energy revolutionDemographic change… are big global stories. Global!The West is smallerInternal Western stories are small storiesThe big issues, the ABCD, are global issues …20

The only big European story is our role in the worldWill the Union be a player… to promote its values, principles, interests… set the rules of the gameOr will the EU continue to be less than the sum of its parts21

Ali Evropa potrebuje velike zgodbe? Stabilnost v gibanju?22

To conclude …Oscar Wilde:“Public Opinion ... is an attempt to organize the ignorance of the community and to elevate it to the dignity of physical force.” Europeans are certainly not ignorant about their hope for a good futurePolitical leadership must deliver on that hope. Tom Landry:“Leadership is getting someone to do what they don't want to do, to achieve what they do want to achieve.”The Union, as it is, is one of the few tools we have to deliver on the hopeBut a tool is just a tool, and tools depend on the user.

Ziga.turk@gmail.comwww.zturk.com Thank you!