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5 key mobile trends for marketers - dmexco 2015. For further information please contact Stefan.Bardega@zenithoptimedia.com
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Editor's Notes
- ZenithOptimedia (global communications agency) has partnered with Global Web Index (GWI) the digital research company on a unique piece of analysis. The analysis builds on GWI data set covering over 200,000 panellist in 34 countries, surveyed quarterly. It is the largest syndicated research of its kind in the world focusing on the behaviours of the online consumer. Our analysis covered the GWI existing data set and also contained custom research and forecasting. The purpose of the analysis was twofold: Firstly to identify the key emerging mobile trends Second to understand their impact on the marketing industry
- We identified 5 key mobile trends that we believe will have significant impact on the marketing industry. Specifically those brands and marketers that operate globally. Mobile tipping point: the point at which countries tip into majority mobile (+50%) digital consumption. Different markets will tip at different points. As well as the speed of tipping we look at the scale of the opportunity. The analysis will enable global marketers to prioritise their investments Mobile first audience: we identify the audience that is almost exclusively mobile in terms of their digital consumption. Who is this audience and where are they ? Marketers will need to ensure they are on mobile to reach them. For the first time we have truly global mobile publishers. A new global canvas on which brands can connect with their customers and prospects Claimed use of search engines is in decline as people discover content on other platforms. The search industry is evolving rapidly specifically into voice search which will change how and where marketers invest Today (16th September 2015) is the launch of iOS9 which contains adblocker options at source. A potential additional 700m devices blocking ads.
- We are used to hearing about the rise of mobile and what it means for marketers. Clearly, I’m not going to win any prizes by standing up here and saying that mobile is changing the game. Even so, take stock of GWI’s harmonized 34-market data on mobile usage and it’s pretty clear just how rapidly we’re hurtling towards the tipping point – that moment when mobiles start accounting for more of our online time than ALL other devices combined – whether those devices be PC, laptop or tablet, and whether they’re our personal ones or those we use for work. I really don’t think the importance of that can be over-stated: while mobiles have been challenging PCs as the most common access point for some time, the fact they’re on course to take the greatest share of time is a huge milestone. So, where do we stand at the moment? Currently, the average global internet user is spending just over 2 hours online on their mobile each day – a rise of about 45 minutes compared to 2012. That means mobiles are currently grabbing over a third of online time, up from a fifth in 2012. Simultaneously, we’re seeing gentle decreases in time spent on PCs and laptops, with year-on-year changes of this type meaning it really won’t be long we reach the tipping point and mobiles take the lead from all other devices. To understand how this will happen, though, it’s key to recognize age-based differences. Whenever I talk about an “average” internet user there are usually some caveats involved, and here it’s that time spent on mobile varies dramatically by age – from a high of 3 ¼ hours among 16-24s to just ½ an hour or so among 55-64s. Put another way, the youngest consumers are online on a mobile for over 6x as long as the oldest ones. 55-64s are also the only age group where time spent on PCs/laptops is holding steady rather than falling. Clearly, that means we’re looking at different tipping points for young consumers vs total populations – and is an important reminder that demographics are every bit as key as infrastructure in terms of when countries will see this transition.
- To begin with the trendsetting 16-24s, we’re looking a global tipping point in 2018. Less than 2.5 years away. Of course, some online activities have already made a stronger jump to mobile than others. Social networking is chief among these, an activity it’s already legitimate to talk of as being mobile-first. But 2018 is the time when pretty much all 16-24s have become truly mobile first. That means it won’t just be things like social networking and music streaming which are heavily mobile-oriented. Mobiles will be the first – or only – choice for far more behaviours. For marketers, though, the real challenge here is that this tipping point will arrive at different times in different markets.
- In some, we’ve already crossed the tipping point – 16-24s in Saudi Arabia hit this landmark back in 2014, with the UAE and Mexico following suit earlier this year That’s typical of countries in the Middle East and Latin America being at the very front of the pack, regions where smartphones were more integral to the development of web usage and where mobiles often remain much more vital as internet access points.
- It’s also why Brazil and Argentina are close behind, set to crossover next year – handily, just in time for the Olympics. Even so, some of mature markets in APAC are ahead of the curve too. As you can see here, South Korea’s youngest consumers become mobile first in 2016, and they’ll be joined by Hong Kong and Japan in 2017.
- That South Korea has invested so heavily in 4G infrastructure – saying it wants to be the global leader in 4G usage – is central to this. In fact, it’s pretty telling that South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong account for three of the top four countries when it comes mobile broadband speed. Clearly, infrastructural investments are a major factor pushing countries towards the mobile tipping point.
- For me, though, it’s 2018 that stands out as the most significant year. It’s not just the moment we reach the global tipping point, it’s also the time by which the three countries with the biggest digital populations of all – China, the USA and India – will have seen this transition take place. That these three countries account for just over half of the world’s internet users makes this a pretty important stat. As is the fact that, by 2020, there will be just a handful of stragglers left.
- For 16-24s, then, 2018 is year to watch. If we broaden our focus to look at this trend among all internet users, there’s something of a timelag. 2021 becomes the year where mobiles outscore all other devices combined, with most markets tending to see the transition about 2-3 years later than their 16-24s. Nevertheless, the overall pattern looks pretty similar: Saudi Arabia is once again at the forefront – due to crossover in 2016. And most of the first markets to see the transition take place will be fast-growth countries, with their young internet populations. But look at this from another perspective – size of market – and the urgency of the trend becomes all too clear.
- Here we’ve shamelessly borrowed some names from the Harvard Business Review to divide countries into different groups – based on their size and the speed of the transition we can expect to see. So, first up are the breakouts –relatively small markets which are at the forefront of mobile behaviors. Important, certainly, but without huge populations,
- But just look at some of the names in the Standouts group – places with large populations and relatively early transition points. Here we’ve got many of the world’s biggest advertising markets, including the USA, Japan, South Korea and Brazil. Taken together, these 9 markets in fact represent more than two thirds of internet users globally.
- Behind these first two segments, we have the Watch Outs and Stallers – slightly slower markets of varying size. Now, if you’re working in any of these countries, you might well be thinking: fine, we’ve got years yet before this happens. Critically, though, the delay we’re seeing here is not because of a lack of uptake for mobile. Far from it. Nor it is due to a lack of infrastructure – with places like Sweden and Germany disproving this Very often, the delay is being caused by older segments being reluctant to give up their PCs, laptops and tablets. As I mentioned earlier, 55-64s are currently the only age group where we’re not seeing a decline in the time that people are spending online via PCs. So, the greater the number of older internet users in a market, the later the transition to mobile-first will take place. That’s particularly relevant in places like the Netherlands, France, Canada, Australia and Germany with their relatively old and, in many ways, conservative, digital populations. What this does nevertheless underline is how markets will tip at very different points – meaning that marketers need to prioritise mobile countries based on the size and speed of opportunity
- If you want a glimpse of why this transformation matters so much, look no further than Mobile-First Consumers, defined here as people who – despite having access to other devices – are already choosing to spend between 90%-100% of their time online on a mobile. Without a fully-formed mobile strategy, you’re already shutting these people out and, in the years ahead, it’s a segment that’s going to get bigger and bigger.
- What’s particularly important here is that – currently – the idea of mobile-first tends to be associated almost exclusively with fast-growth markets. But our data shows that mature markets are present here too. Sure, it’s Saudi Arabia which tops the list once more – where 11% are already mobile-first - but places like Hong Kong and Sweden are towards the top too (countries where 7-8% of internet users with access to multiple devices are nevertheless choosing to spend virtually all of their time on mobile). Why does that matter so much? Especially when, overall, it’s clear that mobile-first remains quite a small audience at the moment. Well, quite apart from the fact that they’re spending so much time on mobile each day – an average of over 3.5 hours – just look at their age profile: over 40% are under 25 and more than 70% are under 35. As a result of being young, they don’t have the same levels of disposable income as other groups but, even so, it’s hard to ignore that fact that almost 1 in 4 have bought a product via mobile in the last month. They’re also a pretty urban bunch. If a quarter of today’s young and relatively cash-poor mobile-first consumers are buying via mobile, it’s not hard to see how this will become even more significant as older and wealthier groups make the same transition in the years ahead. So, fail to optimize for mobile and it’s a pretty valuable and engaged audience who you’re closing your door to.
- You’re shutting yourself off from global publishers too. We’ve all heard the YouTubes and Facebooks of the world talking about the importance of mobile, but look at the numbers visiting these sites on mobile and it’s not unreasonable to say that we now have truly global mobile publishers.
- Let’s start with Facebook. Across our 34 markets, there are just 2 places where Facebook is not being visited by more than 50% of mobile users. The two exceptions are Russia, where over a third are visiting Facebook on mobile but local site VK remains the bigger draw on two thirds. And then there’s China. Despite being officially restricted by the government, it’s still 15% of Chinese internet users who are Facebooking via mobile, with many turning to VPNs in order to gain access. In fact, 1 in 5 in China say they use VPNs in order to access restricted social networks and websites, showing that geo-restrictions are no longer sufficient to deter many of today’s savvy mobile users. A glance at the top app downloads in China is clear confirmation for this. That Facebook has achieved more than 50% reach on mobile in almost all countries surveyed shows the scale of the opportunity that there now is. Don’t be fooled into thinking this makes it an easy task for you, though. One particularly key trend to watch out for is the rise of multi-networking. Currently, the average internet user has accounts on 6 social platforms, rising to almost 7 among mobile users. Both of these figures have more than doubled since 2012. The type of anytime, anywhere access that mobiles allow is having a clear impact here, encouraging people to maintain a presence across multiple networks. Look at behaviours among Facebookers and the challenge this presents is clear – back in 2012, the typical Facebooker was actively using about 2.5 networks. Now, they’re actively engaging with 4.5 of them. Sure, there’s a lot of crossover here – 89% of Snapchatters have a Facebook account, for example. But it’s no longer the case that you can focus on the bigger sites alone. The mobile tipping point means a presence on multiple sites will become key – and it’s one reason why Facebook will need to keep acquiring and innovating if it wants to maintain its dominance.
- When it comes to mobile reach, it’s a similar story for YouTube. On mobile, we know that watching video clips is the top online behaviour. Among young mobile users, our recontact research also shows that 40% are watching branded videos more frequently than they were a year ago (whereas shrinking numbers say they are clicking on banner ads). So, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that – in 31 of our 34 markets – over 50% of mobile users are using YouTube. What this underlines is how both social and video have made the migration from desktop to mobile particularly seamlessly, giving rise to these truly global publishers. However, other disciplines in digital marketing are having a trickier transition, which is an ideal note to handover to Stef as he talks about emerging trends in paid search and display which will affect marketers in the coming years
- Search was one of the key drivers of the internet economy. According to emarketer digital ad economy last year 2014 was worth $145b. Paid search represents about 48 of this according to emarketer in 2014 which equates to $70bn Any change in user behaviour will have a large impact on the economy of the web. And there is a change occurring thanks to mobile. We surveyed over 100k people quarterly since 2014. The question is “how do you discover brands products and services
- Significant decline in claimed search behaviour: from 55 to 49% in one year This change is even more marked for younger audiences dropping 10% points from 53 % to 43% For Older demographics the change is less pronounced But the trend is there in black and white Why is this happening Mobile behaviour is app based. App usage represents 83% of time spent on mobile. The web will become a data layer that powers mobile applications This naturally means less browser behaviour impacting search Social discovery: top 8 social networks drove over 30% of traffic to sites in 2014 up from 22% the previous year As screen sizes get smaller it becomes more difficult to type a query Search in its current browser based format will need to evolve fast if it is to maintain its share of digital marketing investment
- But what is the future of search. We are seeing some very interesting trends emerging 23% of internet users say they have used voice commands and voice search Almost 50% say more than a year ago. In india and brazil the growth is particularly strong with 56% in India 54 in Brazil Voice search Nearly half say there are using this function more than they were before, rising past the 50% mark among men, in India and in the top income quartile. What’s more, only 13% say they have never used the function, and only 10% report using it less. So, once you start using it, you are likely to continue using it. Impact on marketers will to change how and where you invest search budgets: Voice search is very different from typed search. Human computer interaction changes; you speak a query very differently to how you type a query Long tail of keywords becomes more important There will be different players (both app and device)
- Online privacy has been a growing consumer concern globally over the last 2 years. There are generally two key reasons people want to protect their online privacy: They don’t want their family seeing what they are up to online They don’t want advertisers/brands seeing what they are up to online The former relates predictably to pornography; according to Thinkbox research last year in the UK, 16-34’s now spend 15 minutes a day watching porn, and they do not generally want to reveal this private browsing behaviour to family members. This may vary by market but I suspect not. The latter (protecting ones behaviour from advertisers' eyes) concerns itself primarily with the issue of advertising personalisation; targeting and retargeting . Various tools, systems and mechanisms have emerged to cater for this and have been adopted in varying degrees around the world. Our research with Global Web Index across 34 markets and 200,000 panellists highlights the adoption across various different privacy products as follows: Almost half the global internet population (46%) has used 'private browsing' 40% have deleted cookies so that websites can’t track their behaviour 27% have used an adblocker so that brands can’t track and serve personalised advertising 15% have used anti tracking software which combines all three of the above into one.
- Adblocking to date has been largely a desktop issue. This week though adblocking comes to mobile with the release of Apple iOS9 which will come with integrated Content (read ‘advertising') Blocking options built-in. iOS9 will enable people to switch on adblocking at the device level. The effect though will be to block ads that appear within the browser. As well as keeping a persons’ mobile web activities private, mobile ad blocking will have the added twofold benefit of speeding up page load times (important on mobile) and reducing data charges ( even more important). Important the scale of this. Apple has c 700m devices in market
- Apple users are also more predisposed to adblocking 32% of iphone 6 users have used adblocking already 18% more likely than the average internet user to be blocking
- Understandably there is much consternation among the advertising fraternity particularly on the publisher side. However the concern is somewhat misplaced, certainly from a marketers' perspective. The reason for this is that the majority of mobile adblockers will work on mobile browsers but not in-app. And 84% of mobile time spent is in-app (Source:Flurry). With that in mind the initial impact of iOS9 will be limited. Longer term though we see the impact of iOS9 Content Blocking being threefold: It will accelerate the demise of the mobile web banner; this no bad thing and it is frankly surprising that the banner (a legacy format of the desktop environment) ever made its way onto mobile devices in the first place. It will accelerate native in-app mobile advertising growth (e.g newsfeed advertising). This advertising is by definition integrated with the user interface and therefore a better experience, generally yielding better results for advertisers too. We have adjusted our spend forecasts based on the Apple announcement: native to represent 25% of display advertising by 2017 globally (Source: ZenithOptimedia) As a result of point 1 and 2 the creative / production process will need to adapt to take account of the rise of native formats and the move away from a standardised formats.
- Key implications of our trends Prioritise mobile focus based on scale and sped of opportunity by market The mobile first audience is young and urban. If you are a marketer focused on this audience shift prioritisation of digital investment to mobile over desktop to avoid missing out Develop a strategy for the global mobile publishers Future proof your search strategy by understanding the impact of mobile/wearables on your search category Develop understanding of how native will change your marketing investment profile and creative process