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A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD

A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD
JOHN GERZEMA | STORE 2012
Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
JGERZEMA@BAVCONSULTING.COM
TWITTER: @JOHNGERZEMA

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A brave new consumer world gerzema 2012_retailcanada A brave new consumer world gerzema 2012_retailcanada Presentation Transcript

  • TWITTER @JOHNGERZEMA
  • A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD JOHN GERZEMA | STORE 20122 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • Source: Flickr, Eric Fischer3 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • POWER HAS SHIFTED TO CUSTOMERSAS TECHNOLOGY BECOMES CULTURE Boy Scouts debut Badge in Robotics4 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 694,445 1,600+ SEARCH READS ON 98,000+ QUERIES SCRIB’D 370,000+ TWEETS MINUTES CALLS ON TWITTER ON SKYPE 13,000+ 20,000+ iPHONE APPS DOWNLOADED EVERY NEW POSTS ON TUMBLR SECOND 6,600+ 13,000+ NEW PICTURES HOURS MUSIC ARE UPLOADED STREAMING ON ON FLICKR PANDORA 12,000+ 100+ NEW ADS POSTED 70+ NEW LINKEDin ON CRAIGSLIST DOMAINS ACCOUNTS REGISTERED5 Source: Go-Globe.com Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • TECHNOLOGY, BY THE NUMBERS...Web economy to double by 2016 |Americans spend 100Kyears on Facebook each month | More Americans are onFacebook than have a passport | A gamer is three times morelikely to be an adult woman than a minor male |48 hours offootage uploaded to YouTube every minute | More U.S. adultsown a smartphone than have a college degree | Apple Makes75% of Profits, With Only 9% of the Phones | Half of US twenty-somethings have no landline | 28% of US smartphone ownersuse them as primary net connection | One Billion smartphonesales per year by 2016 | U.S. Has More Wireless Devices thanPeople | Mobile Payments To Triple To $670B By 2015 | Avg. UShouseholds receive a personal letter only once every 7 weeks 6 Source: Pew Center. Juniper, NPR, U.S. Postal Service, Forrester, BAV Consulting Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • SMARTPHONES: A LOVE AFFAIR7 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • 8 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • 9 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • THREE FORCES AS CATALYSTS CHANGING CONSUMER DYNAMICS A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD CHANGING TECHNOLOGY MERCHANT ADOPTION DYNAMICS10 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • CHANGING CONSUMER DYNAMICS • By 2020 31% of the world’s population will be under the age of 351 CHANGING YOUNGER • 40% of Canadians will be under the age of 35 in 20202 CONSUMER CONSUMERS DYNAMICS • Half of US 20-somethings have no landline3 A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD CHANGING • By 2030, 2/3 of the world’s population MERCHANT TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION could be middle class4 DYNAMICS GLOBAL • BRICs could account for 50% of global equity markets by 20505 PROSPERITY • Single largest transfer of wealth in American history6 1Infosys, 2 2012 U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs: International Population Projections 2020, 3 FCC June11 2011 4 Brookings Institute 2010, 5 Goldman Sachs Global Economics 2009, 6 PEW Center 2011 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • CHANGING MERCHANT DYNAMICS • 52% of Canadian online adults prefer to MINDFUL research a product online before purchasing1 CHANGING CONSUMER SHOPPING DYNAMICS • 43% of US retail sales are influenced by the web1 A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD • 44% of US consumers reported 1+ P2P CHANGING fund transfer in 2009, expected to rise MERCHANT TECHNOLOGY DYNAMICS ADOPTION PERSON TO to 61% in 20142 PERSON (P2P) • 2010 P2P transfers totaled $7 billion, TRANSACTIONS with substantial growth expected in coming years2 • 4/10 mobile bankers made a mobile P2P transfer in 2010212 1 Delv/Nia Survey 2010, 2 Javelin Strategy & Research, 2011 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION • 2 billion people are connected to the internet; 200 million more each year1 • $8 Trillion exchange hands each year through ecommerce1 EXPANSION OF CHANGING • The internet accounted for 3.4% of the CONSUMER THE INTERNET GDP in 13 countries and 21% of the GDP DYNAMICS in mature markets over the past 5 years1 • 28% of smartphone owners use them as their primary net connection2 A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD • 5 Billion mobile phones in use in 20101 CHANGING MERCHANT TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION • 45% of all Canadian adults have Smart DYNAMICS DEVICE Phones3 PROLIFERATION • 10.3 Million US Adults will own tablets in 2010 rising to 82 Million in 20153 • Mobile banking customer base to reach 1.1 billion by 20155 1 McKinsey Global Institute 2 ARS Technica, 2011 3 comScore, 2012 Canada Digital Future in Focus Report13 4 Global Industry Analysts 2.0 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • THE WORLD’S MOST EXTENSIVE STUDY OFCONSUMERISM: BRAND ASSET VALUATOR®WORLD’S LARGEST 800,000 CUSTOMER QUARTERLY U.S.DATABASE OF BRANDS ATTITUDES, PANEL OF 17,000 PERCEPTIONS AND RESPONDENTSACADEMIC REVIEWED VALUES $ 130 MILLON17 ANNUAL STUDIES 50,000 BRANDS INVESTED WITH DATACOMPRISING 78% BACK TO 1993GLOBAL GDP 275 STUDIES IN 51 COUNTRIES14 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • TRAVELING THE GLOBE IN SEARCH OF THE BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD REYKJAVIK STOCKHOLM LONDON BERLIN BRUSSELS SANFRANCISCO NEW YORK ATHENS BEIRUT TOKYO ST LOUIS TEL AVIV JERUSALEM PARO SHANGHAI AHMEDABAD KOLKATA MEDELLÍN NAIROBI BOGOTÁ LIMA THIMU 15 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD #1CURRENCY GETS CURRENT16 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • TIM KUNDE FOUNDER FRIENDSURANCE BERLIN17 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • MARIA DAMANKI EUROPEAN COMMISSIONER MARITIME AFFAIRS AND FISHERIES BRUSSELS18 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • ANNA PEARSON FOUNDER: SPOTS OF TIME LONDON19 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • MOBILE COMMERCE IS RESHAPING THE MARKETPLACE “ EBAY BUYS ZONG FOR “MOBILE PAYMENTS TO TRIPLE “24% OF MOBILE USERS BANK $240 MILLION IN CASH TO TO $670B BY 2015; DIGITAL FROM A PHONE.” BOOST PAYPAL’S MOBILE GOODS WILL REPRESENT — Mobile Payments World PAYMENTS TECHNOLOGY.” 40% OF TRANSACTIONS.” — TechCrunch — TechCrunch “WHY MOBILE PAYMENTS CANT COME SOON ENOUGH.” “ VC’S INVESTED $834 MILLION IN “MOBILE PAYMENTS TO REACH — CNN Money SCORES OF FIN-TECH FIRMS IN 2.5B USERS GLOBALLY BY 2015.” 2008 AND $1.4 BILLION IN 2011, UP — Mobile Commerce Daily “STARBUCKS CONTINUES TO 75% FROM LAST YEAR .” BLAZE M-PAYMENTS TRAIL.” — CB INSIGHTS “TWO MAJOR INDIAN OPERATORS —Mobile Payments World HAVE ANNOUNCED PLANS TO “ AN ADULT FEMALE IS 3X MORE PURSUE MOBILE BANKING INITIATIVES.” “PAYPAL PREDICTS THE END LIKELY TO BE A GAMER THAN A — Mobile Payments World OF THE WALLET BY 2015.” YOUNG MALE.” — Slashdot — Ars Technica “INDIAN MOBILE BANK EKO RAISES $5.5 MILLION, PROCESSING $270 “MOBILE GAMING TO SURPASS “ NFC PAYMENTS TO GENERATE MILLION IN PAYMENTS A YEAR.” CURRENT CONSOLES.” $50 BILLION IN 3 YEARS.” — TechCrunch — Slashdot — Mobile Payments World20 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 21 Source Copyright 2011, BrandAsset Consulting/Young & Rubicam
  • 22 Copyright 2011, BrandAsset Consulting/Young & Rubicam
  • 23 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 24 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema / BrandAsset Consulting /Young & Rubicam
  • 25 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD #2CINDERELLANOMICS26 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • VINAY GUPTA ANDTOM WRIGHTC0-FOUNDERSWHIP CARLONDON 27 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • MARIA ZIVDIRECTOR OF THEGOVERNMENT OF SWEDENTOURISM BOARD@SWEEDENSTOCKHOLM28 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • CINDERELLANOMICS: WANT LESS, RENT MORE 66% AGREE 67% AGREE Since the recession, I realize I am happier with a simpler, Because of the recession, I shop less more down-to-basics often than I used to lifestyle29 Source: USA BAV All Adults Q1 2012 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 30 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • 31 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 32 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 33 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 34 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD #3REPUTATION.ME35 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • ÖRN BáR⇥UR JóNSSONCONSTITUTIONAL COMMITTEEMEMBERREYKJAVIK36 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • IJAD MADISCH CEO/CO-FOUNDER RESEARCHGATE BERLIN37 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • GILES ANDREWSFOUNDERZOPALONDON38 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • WITH TECH LEADERS, TRENDINESS AND ARROGANCEGO HAND-IN-HAND GOOGLE APPLE FACEBOOK 100 100 100 75 75 75 50 50 50 25 25 25 0 0 0 02 04 06 08 09 10 02 04 06 08 09 10 02 04 06 08 09 10 TRENDY UNAPPROACHABLE ARROGANT39 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 40 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 41 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 42 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 43 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 44 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD #4GAMING YOUR LIFE45 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • GRANNY HOLLY PARTNER: GRANNIES, INC. BANBURY, U.K.46 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • KENTARO OHARAFOUNDERCOLISHTOKYO47 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 48 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • 49 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • 50 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 51 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 52 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD #5THINKING OUTSIDE THE (BIG) BOX53 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • NING LICO-FOUNDER:MADE.COMLONDON 54 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • ERIKO YAMAGUCHIFOUNDER:MOTHERHOUSEBANGLADESHAND TOKYO55 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • LEO RISKI ´CULTURAL ATTACHEFINDLANDTHE FELLESHUSBERLIN56 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • BEYOND BRICK AND MORTAR, OR ‘STORE AS WI-FI’ WHERE A BRAND IS SOLD “TRUSTWORTHY” 2007-2011: INFLUENCES HOW I FEEL ABOUT A BRICK & MORTAR VS. INTERNET BRAND RETAILERS 26 24 22 20 63% DISAGREE 18 16 14 12 10 2007 2010 2011 BRICK & MORTAR RETAIL INTERNET RETAIL57 Source: USA BAV All Adults FY 2011-Q1 2012 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 58 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 60 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 61 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • 62 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting | WPP PLC
  • WHERE THESE TRENDS LEAD US:A BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLD63 Copyright 2011, John Gerzema
  • RETAIL BRANDS ACROSS CANADA FACE MORE COMPETITION IN THE BRAVE NEW CONSUMER WORLDWHILE TOTAL USAGE AND PREFERENCE HAVE INCREASED STRONG LOYALTY TO SPECIFIC BRANDS IS DECLINING Use Regularly Use Occasionally One I Prefer One Of Several -12% -8% 13% 15% 64 Source: USA BAV All Adults FY 2010-Q2 2011 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • THIS IS BECAUSE THERE ARE FEWER BRANDS PEOPLE TRUST,MAKING TRUST ACT AS A PRECIOUS COMMODITY 50 49% 45% 40 29% 30 25% 20 10 0 2001 2009 2001 2009 PERCENT OF CORRELATION OF TRUST TRUSTWORTHY TO FUTURE POTENTIAL BRANDS (BRAND STRENGTH)65 Source: Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • FEWER BRANDS ARE DELIVERING PERFORMANCE, WHICHDRIVES SATISFACTION AND LOYALTY. PERCENT OF PERFORMANCE CORRELATION TO GUEST BRANDS CONSUMER SATISFACTION 100% 1.0 50 0.5 73% 0.82 0.68 47% 0 0.0 PRE POST PRE POST66 Source: USA and Canadian BAV All Adults (Trustworthy brands defined as those with greater than 20% attribution) Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • A LESSON TO PRICE-DRIVEN RETAILERS: VALUE DOES NOTEQUATE TO DIFFERENTIATION WORTH MORE, THOUGH NOT AS STRONGLY GOOD VALUE DRIVES RELEVANCE AND ESTEEM, CORRELATED TO KNOWLEDGE AND RELEVANCE BUT IS NEGATIVELY CORRELATED TO GROWTH, DOES A BETTER JOB DRIVING ESTEEM DIFFERENTIATION, THE KEY DRIVER OF CURRENT AND DIFFERENTIATION. AND FUTURE BRAND VALUE. KNO KNO EST EST REL REL DIF POSITIVE DIF NEGATIVE CORRELATION CORRELATION 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.067 Source: BrandAsset Valuator, 2012 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • IN BRAND VS. PRIVATE LABEL PRICE ALONE ISN’T DRIVINGBRAND CHOICE“I PREFER TO BUY ENERGIZED DIFFERENTIATIONNAME BRANDS WHEN PRIVATE LABEL VS. BRAND NAMEAVAILABLE INSTEADOF STORE BRANDS.” 80 BRAND NAME14% INCREASE IN 60AGREEMENT FROM Q4 DIFFERENTIATION2011 TO Q1 2012 45% INCREASE IN DIFFERENTIATION 40 GAP FROM 2009 20 PRIVATE LABEL 0 2008 2009 2011 Source: BrandAsset Valuator, 201268 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • THE POWER OF ‘SOCIAL AS BUSINESS MODEL’. 35 SOCIAL 30 MEDIA 25 CHANGE IN TRUST (Percentage) 20 15 10 WEBSITE TELEVISION SPONSORED MAGAZINES 5 EVENTS NEWSPAPERS MOBILE 0 10 20 30 40 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN BRAND STRENGTH (Future Potential)69 Source: BrandAsset Valuator 2012 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • WHILE NON-INTERACTIVE MEDIA HAS DECLINED 2008 2010 2 FOX NEWS 100 SOCIAL MEDIA INTERNET SEARCH (Energized Differentiation / Relevance) INTERNET PORTAL MSNBC BRAND STRENGTH INTERNET CNBC TOOLS AND SERVICES INTERNET WSJ COMMERCE 50 SERVICE ESPN THE MAGAZINE INTERNET THE NEW NEWS/INFO YORK TIMES THE NEW FINANCIAL YORKER TIMES 0 50 100 BRAND STATURE (Esteem / Knowledge)70 Source:BrandAsset Valuator 2012 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • ULTIMATELY STRONG CUSTOMER-CENTRIC BRANDSBREAK AWAY FROM THEIR CATEGORIES ALL ADULTS 2011 100 COMPUTER (Energized Differentiation / Relevance) AVERAGE INTERNET BRAND STRENGTH CUSTOMER RETAIL AUTO AVERAGE AVERAGE 50 AIRLINE HOTEL AVERAGE AVERAGE 0 50 100 BRAND STATURE (Esteem / Knowledge)71 Source: BrandAsset® Valuator USA, All Adults, 2011 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema
  • JGERZEMA@BAVCONSULTING.COM TWITTER: @JOHNGERZEMA72 Copyright 2012, John Gerzema | BAV Consulting |WPP PLC | @Johngerzema