(Not) Predicting What's Next
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(Not) Predicting What's Next



An analysis of failed predictions and what has changed over the past few years.

An analysis of failed predictions and what has changed over the past few years.



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(Not) Predicting What's Next (Not) Predicting What's Next Presentation Transcript

  • (Not) Predicting What's Next(Not) Predicting What's Next Zeh FernandoZeh Fernando FirstbornFirstborn August 2013August 2013
  • First big mistake:First big mistake: Knowing everythingKnowing everything
  • “Technology changes quickly; People's minds change slowly” – Bret Victor, “The Future of Programming”” - http://vimeo.com/71278954
  • Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHEIOgONq6A
  • Source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/1995/02/26/the-internet-bah.html – Cliff Stoll, “The Internet? Bah!” (February 1995) “No online database will replace your daily newspaper” “Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure” “The network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.”
  • Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Snake_Oil “Now, whenever I think I know what's happening, I temper my thoughts: Might be wrong, Cliff...”
  • Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2013, slide 55 (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)
  • Source: “What a difference a decade makes” (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/what-a-difference-a-decade-makes-barrons-proclaims-amazon-best-retailer/15389) “Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no contest” “[Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos] is a middleman, and he will likely be outflanked by companies that sell their wares directly to consumers” “Books can be printed out on traditional computer printers”
  • The reality:The reality: Amazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail SalesAmazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail Sales Source: Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-of-the-week-emails-reign-is-over-social-networking-is-the-new-king-2010-4?op=1)
  • Modern smartphonesModern smartphones iPhone first introduced in June 2007 (6 years ago)
  • “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” Source: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-04-29-ballmer-ceo-forum-usat_N.htm – Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (April 2007)
  • “Try typing a web key on a touchscreen on an Apple iPhone, that's a real challenge. You cannot see what you type.” Source: http://windowsphonethoughts.com/news/show/23449/rim-ceo-blasts-apple-and-windows-mobile-devices.html – Mike Lazaridis, CEO, RIM (November 2007)
  • The reality:The reality: 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060 GoogleGoogle AppleApple RIMRIM MicrosoftMicrosoft Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %Smartphone Market Penetration in US, % Source: ComScore (http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/pages/monthly-smartphone-ownership-figures-based-surveys-conducted-comscore)
  • The reality:The reality: Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in % Source: Gartner (http://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/) 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060 7070 8080 9090 GoogleGoogle AppleApple MicrosoftMicrosoft RIMRIM NokiaNokia
  • Modern tabletsModern tablets iPad first introduced in April 2010 (3 years ago)
  • “A guy tried to take notes on one in a meeting with me yesterday. That was fun. The meeting didn't go real fast.” Source: http://www.pcworld.com/article/198038/Ballmer_Bites_Back_Disses_the_iPad.html – Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (June 2010) “I think people are going to be using PCs in greater and greater numbers for many years to come”
  • The reality:The reality: Tablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millionsTablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millions Source: IDC (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24129713) 20102010 20112011 20122012 2013*2013* 2014*2014* 2015*2015* 2016*2016* 00 5050 100100 150150 200200 250250 300300 350350 400400 TabletTablet Portable PCPortable PC All PCsAll PCs
  • The reality:The reality: Top 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousandsTop 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousands Source: IDC (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pc-industry-implodes-2013-4) Q1 2012Q1 2012 Q1 2013Q1 2013 00 55 1010 1515 2020 HPHP LenovoLenovo DellDell AcerAcer ASUSASUS
  • The reality:The reality: Global PC shipments in Q4 2012Global PC shipments in Q4 2012 Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Gartner (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)
  • The reality:The reality: PC/iOS & Android Unit SalesPC/iOS & Android Unit Sales Source: Asymco, “The PC Calamity” (http://www.asymco.com/2013/07/18/the-pc-calamity/) (Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)
  • A high schooler guide to the future ofA high schooler guide to the future of programming languagesprogramming languages (Circa 1994) C, COBOL, Clipper
  • The reality: most popular languages, TIOBEThe reality: most popular languages, TIOBE Programming Community IndexProgramming Community Index (August 2013) C: #2 COBOL: #27 Clipper: ... Source: TIOBE Programming Community Index for August 2013 (http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.html)
  • Second big mistake:Second big mistake: Predicting what's coming next
  • Source: Street Cleaning, 1898 (http://books.google.com/books?id=CWlEAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false)
  • Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)
  • Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)
  • Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)
  • Source: Arthur Radebaugh, "Closer Than We Think”, 1961 (http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/forget-barcodes-1961s-cash-register-of-the-future-und-509145222)
  • Source: The Newspaper of Tomorrow, 1934 (http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/paleofuture/2013/03/the-newspaper-of-tomorrow-11-predictions-from-yesteryear/)
  • Source: Future Passed, 1959 (http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/24/3035470/future-passed-television-history)
  • Source: Magic Highway USA, 1958 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3funFSRAbU)
  • The unknown:The unknown: Disruptive Innovation
  • “(...) successful companies can put too much emphasis on customers' current needs, and fail to adopt new technology or business models that will meet customers' unstated or future needs”
  • Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation Standard TechnologyStandard Technology Disruptive TechnologyDisruptive Technology TimeTime UtilityUtility
  • What about you?What about you?
  • Source: Thomas Jensen - Software Museum (http://thomasjensen.com/museum.shtml)
  • Thank you.Thank you. @zeh@zeh zeh@firstborn.comzeh@firstborn.com http://zehfernando.comhttp://zehfernando.com