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Energy Management: The End of Cheap Oil
 

Energy Management: The End of Cheap Oil

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Energy Management: The End of Cheap Oil viz Peak Oil and Alternative Future Scenarios

Energy Management: The End of Cheap Oil viz Peak Oil and Alternative Future Scenarios

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    Energy Management: The End of Cheap Oil Energy Management: The End of Cheap Oil Presentation Transcript

    • 1ENERGY MANAGEMENTTHE END OF CHEAP OILA Public Service PresentationDate : March 2010ByHarjono Zainal AbidinChairmanQUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn BhdKuala Lumpur, MalaysiaE-mail: harjono@geocities.com
    • INTRODUCTIONThe world can now feed a daily oilhabit of nearly 80 million barrels.In the U.S. about two-thirds of theoil goes to make transport fuels.The synthetic fabrics in ourwardrobe and the plastics in justabout everything we touch startedout as oil too.As Daniel Yergin writes in his oilhistory The Prize, we live in "theAge of Hydrocarbon Man."
    • Oil TradeThe quest for more cheap oil is a losing game:Oil consumption imposes severe costs on the environment, health, and taxpayers.The worlds oil addiction is hastening a day of reckoning.
    • Oil ConsumptionOil is cheap.In the United States, a gallon of petrol can be cheaper than a bottle of water.It is too cheap for most people to bother conserving.The U.S. remains the king of consumers, accounting for a quarter of the worlds oil even though it hasjust 5 percent of the population.
    • The End of Cheap Oil?National GeographicJune 2004The Earth holds a finite supply of oil.The flood of crude oil from fields aroundthe world will ultimately top out, thendwindle."In our lifetime," says economist Robert K.Kaufmann of Boston University, who is 46,"we will have to deal with a peak in thesupply of cheap oil."NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC June 2004http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/
    • Sustainable alternatives now …. The peak marks the change from an increasing supply ofcheap oil to a dwindling supply of expensive oil. We foresee dire consequences: shortages, price spikes,economic disruption, and a desperate push to wrest oilfrom "unconventional" sources such as tar sands, oilshale, or coal. We need to curb our oil use and develop sustainablealternatives now.
    • 7Oil Price Spike 2008This has already caused big spikes in energy prices – including natural gas and electricity – with potentially devastatingeconomic and social impacts.―Global production of oil – including biofuels and so-called ‗nonconventional‘ sources – has scarcely risen since early2005, while the price of oil has soared from $10 per barrel in 1998 to $140 per barrel in June 2008.‖(U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argus Media.4)
    • 8Economic crisis?
    • 9The NEXT Crisis …..AGENDA FEBRUARY 11, 2010, 5:47 A.M. ETThe Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak OilAs Europes leaders gather in Brussels today, they have only onecrisis in mind: the debts that threaten the stability of the EuropeanUnion. They are unlikely to be in any mood to listen to warnings abouta different crisis that is looming and that could cause massivedisruption.A shortage of oil could be a real problem for the world within a fairlyshort period of time. It was unfortunate for the group which chose topoint this out yesterday that they should have chosen to do so on theday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC,reported that the effects of the financial downturn had led to a slightdowngrade in its forecast for oil consumption this year.Against the gloomy economic backdrop that Europe currentlyprovides, siren voices shrieking that a potential energy crisis isimminent and could be worse than the credit crunch are liable to bedismissed as scaremongers.The North Sea Shearwater platform was producingyears beyond expectations.SOURCETHE NEXT CRISIS: PREPARE FOR PEAK OILBy PATIENCE WHEATCROFTFEBRUARY 11, 2010, 5:47 A.M. EThttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350.html?mod=wsj_share_facebooK
    • Oil Prices To-day …2010
    • 11What is “Peak Oil”?Peak Oil is also called"Hubberts Peak"– Named for the Shell geologistDr. Marion King Hubbert.– In 1956, Hubbert accuratelypredicted that US domestic oilproduction would peak in1970.
    • The Hubbert Curve
    • 13Decline in SupplyOil production in a given country tends to go into decline at about the halfway point because of falling pressure in theunderground reservoirs, and because oil companies usually discover and exploit the largest oil fields first.Oil Producing Countries Past Peak
    • Global viewPlateauMAX
    • 15Obama2010 2020 2030PEAK OIL SCENARIOSeller‘sMarketBuyer‘sMarketCheap Easy to Extract Oil Expensive – Difficult to Extract Oil9-11
    • SHELL “Scramble” ScenarioConsidering Scramble, What Will the World beLike? Environmentally the world will not be the mostpleasant place to live, there will not be anytaxes on CO2 emmisions, so there will be ahigh carbon dioxide output. There will be anumber of CO2 Reduction plans, but becauseof rapid change and high prices consumersare not interested and these plans will fail. Economically the world wont do too greateither, due to rapid changes in technologyevery 5 to 10 years the economy will beunstable, and not very strong. Chances arethat the Global Fincancial Crisis will continuefor another few years, slowly recovering, andwhen we change technology again the crisiswill go downhill even further.Will there be an oil war? Yes, in fact there already is an oil war.America in Iraq. It is an early oil war, and asign of desperation. We need a drasticchange in technology to prevent the furtherwars.SourcePRESENT & FUTURE OF OILhttp://fromoiltowhat.com/future.htmlShell strategies!
    • Oil Wars!
    • 18What does peak oil mean for our societies?Our industrial societies and our financial systems were builton the assumption of continual growth Growth based on ever more readily available cheap oil.Oil in particular is the most convenient and multi-purposedof these fuels. Oil currently accounts for about 43% of the worlds total fuelconsumption, and 95% of global energy used for transportation. Oil and gas are feedstocks for plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals,fertilizers, electronic components, tyres and much more. Oil is so important that the peak will have vast implicationsacross the realms of war and geopolitics, medicine, culture,transport and trade, economic stability and food production. Significantly, for every one joule of food consumed, around 10joules of fuel energy have been used to produce it.
    • 19Economic ImpactWhen oil production starts to decline, the economic impact will be dramatic.Economic growth is largely dependent upon a growing oil supply. The International Energy Agencyhas forecast oil demand to expand at a rate of 1.3% annually over the period 2004-2030.But after the peak, many forecasters expect global oil production to fall at 2-4% a year, meaning thatthe deficit between the oil we want and the oil we get will expand by 3-5% a year. Within 10-15 yearsof the onset of decline we could have just half the oil supply that projections say is required to sustaineconomic growth.
    • 20How do we manage an Energy crisis?Reacting to crisisShort term– Building Services• Power• Water• Comms• Waste– Transport• Natural Gas!• Encourage people to use– trains & bus– bicycles– Not cars– Telecommute• Internet for workNGV Natural Gas Vehicles!
    • 21Longer Term Alternatives?Alternative fuels may help but ….unless we change our lifestyles these new technologies will come to naught.Wind power!Solar power!Ethanol/Methanol?Nuclear!
    • NOTE On Alternative fuelsThe best non petroleum source ofpower is Hydroelectricity!Most alt fuels have a negativeEROI* Oil Shales/Kerogen? Coal to gas! Hydrogen? Nuclear Fission? Nuclear Fusion!*EROI Energy Return on Investment
    • 23What to expect?Lifestyle changes …..go green!Sustainable economics!A balance between capitalism & socialism!BUT ….
    • 24What Behavioral changes are necessary?Western consumer lifestyle in the East?CHINA?NEW YORK!
    • What happened to the Bicycles in Beijing …?The millennia-old Middle Kingdom can claim to have invented manythings _ fireworks, the umbrella, paper and the compass amongthem _ but not the bicycle.According to Amir Moghaddass Esfehani, ahistorian at the Technical Institute of Berlin, theChinese first learned of bicycles from a customsofficial named Binchun who visited Paris in 1866and wrote of Parisians riding vehicles made of"two wheels with a pipe in the middle."Back then, well-heeled Chinese generally got around in rickshaws orsedan chairs, both hauled by manpower. It was only after expatriateAmericans and Europeans began cycling around Chinese cities thatthe fashion took off, Moghaddass writes in "The Bicycle and theChinese People."Through the three decades of Communist central planning, bicycleswere encouraged as transport; buses were crammed and infrequent,taxis virtually unheard of.For the Beijing Olympics, the city is offering visitors 50,000 bicyclesfor rent, but many bike pathways in Beijing and Shanghai have beentaken over by right-turn and bus-only lanes. Big offices and hotelbuildings generally provide bicycle parking onsite only foremployees.Shanghais 10 million bikes are banned from many main streets. Atrip from Hongqiao, in the western suburbs, to the busy NanjingRoad shopping district is an obstacle course around no-go zonesand subway construction projects. The riverside bike paths sofamiliar in Western cities are nonexistent.SOURCEBikes, Chinas icon, thrive despite car invasionELAINE KURTENBACH | July 7, 2008 07:27 AM ESThttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/07/chinas-bike-culture-bikes_n_111144.html?just_reloaded=1
    • 26Paris!A New Fashion Catches On in Paris:Cheap Bicycle RentalsBy STEVEN ERLANGERPublished: July 13, 2008PARIS — They‘re clunky,heavy and ugly, but they have become modish —and they are not this season‘s platform shoes.A system for renting Vélib‘ bicycles hasbecome hugely popular in Paris, whereabout 20,600 of the bikes are in service.Self-service rental stations are ubiquitous in Paris.A year after the introduction of the sturdy gray bicyclesknown as Vélib‘s, they are being used all over Paris. Thebikes are cheap to rent because they are subsidized byadvertising, and other major cities, including American ones,are exploring similar projects.About 20,600 Vélib‘ bicycles are in service here, with morethan 1,450 self-service rental stations. The stations are onlysome 300 yards apart, and there are four times as many asthere are subway stations, even in a city so well served byits metro system.A system for renting Vélib’bicycles has become hugelypopular in Paris, where about20,600 of the bikes are in service.Self-service rental stations areubiquitous in Paris.SOURCEA New Fashion Catches On in Paris: Cheap Bicycle RentalsBy STEVEN ERLANGER Published: July 13, 2008http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/world/europe/13paris.html?_r=3&oref=slogin
    • 27Electric Bicycle Transportation SystemMonday, July 27, 2009 12:30PM - By Chris WeissWinners of the Future City Mobility competition, Marten Wallgren, Il Choi, David Seesing and Miika Hekkinen designedthis project dubbed London Garden, envisioning a cleaner, more integrated future for London’s transportation.The design begins with electric bicycles that operate in three modes: standard; exercise mode, in which resistance is added to generate andstore electricity; and electric, which uses stored electricity to power a motor. The foldable bikes are designed for community use and stored inbus stops modeled to look like trees, blending seamlessly with the natural landscape. The bus stops also generate electricity using sun, windand rain water. The bicycles work in conjunction with electric buses and taxis, where they’re brought aboard and used as seats, bringing theirenergy reserve in for use by the vehicles. [via Tree Hugger]Using the Bicycle
    • 28Building Energy Efficiency?Buildings today account for– up to 40 percent of the world‘s energyuse and– are responsible for nearly 40 percent ofthe world‘s greenhouse gas emissions.Technology is available today to reducethese by up to 70 percent.– That‘s as much as taking every singlecar, truck and bus off the road aroundthe world.With prompt action and smart policies, wecan fundamentally and dramaticallyreduce the energy needed for thebuildings we live and work in every day.EXAMPLESfrom around the globe.
    • 29Sustainable Vancouver ….Vancouver, CanadaVancouver is a coastal city, home to more than 560,000 people, andwas named the world‘s most livable city by the Economist magazine.It‘s proved to be not only the most livable, but also Canada‘s model forusing renewable energy sources.Vancouver has an ambitious 100-year plan for clean and green living.The city already leads the world in hydroelectric energy, whichcurrently makes up 90 percent of its power supply. It also plans to-reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to levels 20 percent lower thanreported in 1990 during the formation of the Kyoto P-rotocol. Fossilfuels will be reduced with city investments in wind, solar, wave andtidal energy systems.Additionally as part of its energy-efficient plans, Vancouver hasntbeen shy with implementing emerging technologies. Solar-poweredtrash compactors have sprung up around the city, each the sizeequivalent to a normal trashcan but able to hold five times the waste(which puts fewer emissions-spewing garbage trucks on the roads).SOURCE Sustainable Vancouverhttp://www.cityofvancouver.us/sustainability.asp
    • 30Masdar Abu DhabiNORMAN FOSTER’S GREEN DESERT UTOPIA In Abu Dhabihttp://www.inhabitat.com/2007/05/09/norman-fosters-green-desert-utopia-in-dubai/Not settling for mere zero-energy, Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill’s Masdar Headquarters are setting new design standardsfor green building, with their scheme that generates more energy than it consumes. The Masdar Headquarters buildingoutside of Abu Dhabi is also the first building in history to generate power for its own assembly, using a solar roof pierthat will be built first to power the rest of the construction.
    • 31ChinaUS-China collaboration:– Green Building Design: For the 2008Olympics in Beijing China, the U.S.Department of Energy (DOE) teamedup with the Beijing Science andTechnology Group to focus ondeveloping green goals, one of thembeing the development of Chinesegreen building standards. With theassistance of Joseph Huang of theLawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory, the DOE also providedtechnical design review and energyanalysis for the design of the BeijingOlympic Village.– Sustainable Development: HellerManus Architects based in SanFrancisco, California was selected byGuangzhou City, China‘s third largestcity, to develop and design a masterplan based on eco-city and smartgrowth design principals.– Smart Grid: Intel and the State GridCorporation of China Lab workedtogether to develop grid modeling andsimulation software, network isolation,power station automation, andapplications of embedded technologies.Guangzhou - China’s third largest citySourceGreen Architecture And Building Reporthttp://www.gabreport.com/gabreport/2009/11/2nd-annual-uschina-green-energy-conference-a-catalyst-for-change-and-innovation.html
    • 32ConclusionGlobal oil production is at or near apeakand a permanent decline will follow. Life and societies will changeforever:– our transport systems,– how we produce food,– where we work and live• esp in cities with tall buildings &highways. Local government policies needto be changed, if we are tohave any chance of mitigatingthe economic effects of peakoil.– The continued expansion of roadand air infrastructure– no longer makes any sense. Food supplies should be ourprimary concern.– In a world of constrained transport,– food security will increasinglydepend upon local supply.
    • 33Where are we today?Based on consensus it is likely that global oil production will ‗peak‘ and go into sustaineddecline within the next few years if it has not done so already.
    • 34Last word …The most fundamental change needed is in the way people think.Local policy will be fundamental to the transition to a lean-energy future.Thank YouCARTOONS from Ken Taylor: POST PEAK OIL CRISIShttp://www.islandbreath.org/2006Year/14-energy/0614-07PeakOilWorldView.html
    • READINGSPeak Oil Primerhttp://www.energybulletin.net/primer.phpLife After the Oil Crashhttp://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Post Oil Citieshttp://www.postoilcities.org/?p=142Prepared byHarjono Zainal AbidinQUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn BhdKuala Lumpur18-Mar-201035