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What is coming next after LTE and IMT-Advanced

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  • 1. What is coming next after LTE and IMT-Advanced – An Industry Perspective – Werner Mohr Head of Research Alliances1 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 2. Outline• Trends in mobile and wireless communications − Traffic growth and economic impact − Technology• Requirements on future radio systems• Approach for future radio systems − Main concepts − Base stations − Ubiquitous connectivity• Machine-to-Machine / Internet of Things / Sensor-based systems• Energy efficiency• Future directions• Conclusions2 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 3. The pace of change in the ICT industry WWW IPV6 1st UMTS Network Prediction is very difficult, especially if it‘s about the futureSource: Nokia Siemens Networks3 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 4. Bandwidth hunger is ever increasingVideo & TV drive needs Application bandwidth demands 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 300 Mbps Multiview 3D HDTV Ultra HDTV Multiview 3D SDTV Super HDTV Sharing/conferencing/collaboration Stereo 3D HDTV Stereo 3D SDTV HD Video calling downstream upstream HDTV Ultra HDTV Multiview 7680 x 4320 3D HDTV Stereo 3D Super HDTV HDTV HDTV 4096 x 2160 1920x 1080 1920x 1080 1920x 1080Source: Nokia Siemens Networks4 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 5. Worldwide Internet audienceStatus: March 2011 Europe: North America: 476.2 million (22.7 %) 272.1 million (13.0 %) Asia Pacific: 944.3 million (45.0 %) Latin America: 215.0 million (10.3 %) Middle East & Africa: 187.2 million (9.0 %) More than 2 billion Internet users worldSource: Internet statistics: http://www.internetworldstats.com/ .5 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 6. Internet traffic growth is hugeGlobal FIXED traffic (ExaByte/month) Global MOBILE traffic (ExaByte/month)100 2.5 Residential Handheld80 Unicast TV 2.0 data traffic60 Residential 1.5 Laptop Internet Data Traffic40 Business 1.0 Internet Voice Voice20 0.5 Traffic Traffic 0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fixed broadband traffic Mobile data traffic is 40x mobile in 2015 grows 300 foldSource: Analyst reports and Nokia Siemens Networks 6 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 7. Drivers of the Future Internet Applications and Content changed Personal TV Navigation Gaming IPTV Community VoIP Social Web Future Internet HSPA/LTE WiMAX WLAN faces challenges beyond the original design Mobile and multi-access DevicesSource: Nokia Siemens Networks7 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 8. Mobile broadband driving need for better networkquality & efficiencySource: Analyst reports and Nokia Siemens Networks8 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 9. Identified frequency spectrum Potentially, additional allocation in CEPT countries under discussion• WRC 2007 identified additional frequency bands for mobile and wireless communications• Preparation for WRC 2012 ongoing to get agenda item for WRC 2016• WRC 2016 may discuss and identify additional frequency spectrumSource: ITU-R9 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 10. Performance evolution by ‘simply’ shrinkingtransistor size becomes more difficult Transistors per chip (Moore‘s law) Technology evolution (half-pitch) 100 Bill. 100µm 10 Bill. 10µm 1 Bill. 2.0x 1µm 100 Mill. every 10 Mill. 2 years 100nm 0.7x 1 Mill. every 10nm 100 000 2 years 10 000 1nm 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Physical limits of atomic structure for scaling transistors while still managingpower and thermals drive new approachesSource: AMD, IBM, Intel processor roadmaps and datasheets10 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 11. Strong limitations in clock speed & powerImproving performance trough parallelism µP evolution from single-core to multi-core 100000000 10000000 1000000 100000 Transistors [000] 10000 Clock[MHz] 1000 Power[W] 100 Number of cores per 10 # Cores “chip years every two doubles “ 1 Cores are the new transistors 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Source: AMD, IBM, Intel processor roadmaps and datasheets11 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 12. Basic technology evolution - the foundation Do the laws hold? Unlimited Processing Unlimited Storage IT everywhere Advanced IO technologies Secure Networks & services Privacy by designSource: Nokia Siemens Networks12 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 13. Unlimited processing Parallelism will have Paradigm shift from changed SW design Processing resources get sequential to parallel principles and centralized in the cloud – processing will enable application with geographic unlimited processing environments redundancy capacities App App … Virtualization Core CPU Server Cluster GridSource: Nokia Siemens Networks13 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 14. Radio networks will be pushed toGigabits on the move Spectral Efficiency by Heterogeneous networks extreme beam forming Smart integration of local area and coordinated technologies for traffic growth and transmission high data rates will provide ubiquitous access Three times licensed All access standards with bandwidth for mobile programmability. Very communications by 2020 compact and wideband future radiosSource: Nokia Siemens Networks14 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 15. Miniaturization continues and enablesabundant computing & storage capacities 2010 2020 Moore’s law 32 nm half-pitch 7 nm half-pitch Processing • 8 cores / CPU • 256 cores / CPU • 1000$ PC • Human brain compute equivalent: Spider Storage • 100 $ / TB • 1$ / TB • Located in • 30 % in the clients cloud*Source: IDC digital universe study15 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 16. Innovations ahead in photonics and IOSustainability remains a challenge 2010 2020 Photonics • Optics into line • Optics into CPUs cards • 60 Tbps / fiber • 10 Tbps / fiber Advanced IO • HD planar 3D • UHD volumetric • 2k pixel/$ 3D • Touch input • 64k pixel/$ • Natural language Sustainability • 0,8 Gt CO2* • 1.5 Gt CO2* • 100 Gbps/kW • 600 Gbps/kWSource: Global ICT footprint, Smart 2020 report16 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 17. Traffic growth and changing usage define requirementsDiversity of applications demands flexibility Communication Majority of all Real-time cloud technologies traffic will be services require are absorbed in streaming of low latency all areas of media our lives Sharing drives Explosion of upstream communication requirements endpoints with billions of connected objects But we have to expect the unexpected…Source: Nokia Siemens Networks17 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 18. What will the world want from wireless beyond 2020? Support up Mobile data traffic forecast Rock solid, to 1000 1000 EB ubiquitous times more 1000x connectivity traffic 1 EB 2010 2015 2020 ©2011 Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Apps bandwidth demand Gbps peak Millisecond 3D HD speeds latency for Ultra HD true “local 3D SDTV feel” Super HD HD 0Mbps 100Mbps 200Mbps 300Source: Nokia Siemens Networks18 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 19. By 2020 – radio can reduce latency 10x Latency in radio networks Radio latency can be pushed to 1 ms in 2020 by using a 20 ms shorter frame length 15 ms The main benefit is realized when 10 ms content is close. 1 ms limits fiber length to 100 km. 5 ms Enable low-latency 0 ms M2M solutions HSPA LTE “B4G“ Base station Air interface UESource: Nokia Siemens Networks19 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 20. By 2020 - radio can improve in spectral efficiency 10x Spectral efficiency [bps/Hz/cell] Spectral efficiency can be improved by managing inter- 8 cell interference. 6 Efficiency is not limited by 4 Shannon but by inter-cell 2 interference. Cell edge data 0 rates improve HSPA LTE LTE + CoMP + UE + further today 2x2 Advanced interference innovations twice as much 4x4 cancelationSource: Nokia Siemens Networks20 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 21. By 2020 - there can be 10x more spectrum available Evolution of available radio spectrum Unlic 5GHz 1500MHz Unlic 2.4GHz 3700 MHz 3400 MHz 10 times more 2600 MHz spectrum can be 1000MHz 2300 MHz made available if 2100 MHz TDD we drive for it. 2100 MHz 1800 MHz 500MHz 900 MHz Cognitive radio 800 MHz enables optimized 700 MHz spectrum usage 450 MHz over multiple 2010 2012 2015 2020 operatorsSource: Nokia Siemens Networks21 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 22. By 2020 - there will be 10x more base stations Global base station forecast Number of cellular base stations 50 Mn grows to over 50 Million 40 Mn 80 % will be 30 Mn microcell or smaller 20 Mn 10 Mn Additionally more 0 Mn than 500 Million 2010 2015 2020 WiFi APs Micro, Pico, Femto BTS Macro BTSSource: Nokia Siemens Networks22 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 23. Bringing all together allows up to 1000 times morecapacity 10 x 10 x 10 x 1000 Performance Spectrum Base stations x capacitySource: Nokia Siemens Networks23 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 24. How can we build this? Radio frequency System on Chip Laws of physics Bandwidth capability of enables small radios, determine antenna size base stations low power consumption 200MHz & integration of intelligent functions. SDR is no problem for 60MHz digital processing! 2MHz 20MHz Continuous growth of 1990 2000 2010 2020 computing power with 1990 2000 2010 2020 Moore‘s law 60Bn Switched mode power For same performance, amplifier, high-voltage antenna size does not GaAs HBT and GaN get smaller. Size even technologies for increases if wideband radios with 2Mn 60Mn 2Bn beamforming is required multicarrier capabilities 1990 2000 2010 2020Source: Nokia Siemens Networks24 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 25. How can we deploy, commission and maintain all theradios, frequency bands and layers? All cells and frequency Virtually one ubiquitous connectivity layers automatically managed by advanced SON All spectrum under unified RRM for instant capacity and coverage optimization Cognitive networks will reduce errors, improve quality and lower operation  and energy costs Source: Nokia Siemens Networks25 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 26. Heterogeneous access networks will enableubiquitous broadband coverage Gigabits on the move with “beyond 4G” Licensed & unlicensed spectrum DSL FTTx Large & small cells FTTx for homes, enterprises & backhaulSource: Nokia Siemens Networks26 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 27. Gigabit ExperienceReliable, Efficient and Personal Ubiquitous Connectivity Unified Radio Cognitive Resource Networks Management Active Wideband Liquid Radio Antennas Multiradio Multi- Multi- Heterogenous Self Organized Carrier Standard Networks NetworksSource: Nokia Siemens Networks27 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 28. M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems Everything connected • Mobility, pervasiveness, scalability Example: • Data deluge (Web 2.0, P2P, M2M, 3D, …) Fleet Monitoring – Functional Architecture • Heterogeneity of devices (e.g. RFIDs, sensors) Reports Billions of devices Evolution of Internet 2010 2014 …..EU Commission Send notification in response GPS location to pre-defined triggers Data Centre• Such systems essential for Future Internet applications and Vehicle Console Unit Transport Units GIS Spatial Sensors Database solutions for societal challenges Containers such as with RFID Notification Location − Smart energy Container − Smart traffic Sensors Control Room Location − eHealth Operator Map − etc. Nokia Siemens NetworksSource: EU Commission / Nokia Siemens Networks28 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 29. Estimate for global annual CO2 emissions ofmobile network elements 0.1 W 1 kW 10 kW Mobile CS Core Transport Mobile PS Core IP Core Secondary energy Users usage of delivery and supply chain 23.3 Mt CO2/year 0.6 Mt 1.7 Mt CO2/year CO2/year Secondary energy 3.5 million x 1.5 kW usage for 12000 x 10 kW 5 billion construction 0.33 GW 5.25 GW 0.12 GWSource: Nokia Siemens Networks29 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 30. Physical layer – Shannon law• Associated with traffic growth energy consumption in communication networks is expected to increase• Energy consumption results in significant economic cost factor for network operation• Today’s mobile communication systems designed under paradigm − of high spectral efficiency and peak throughput − with respect to the limited available frequency spectrum• Physical layer is approaching the Shannon limit• Future ICT networks and systems to be designed − to be more energy efficient and − with reduced operational cost T/B 14 12 Operating range 10 of today‘s systems with 8 adaptive modulation 6 4 2 0 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 S/(BN F) [dB] S/(N ΔCIR) [dB]Source: Nokia Siemens Networks 030 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 31. Physical layer – Shannon lawS2/S1 [dB] Parameter 5,0 S1 B1 ⋅ N 0 ⋅ F [dB] 0,0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 -5,0 -20 dB -10 dB -10,0 0 dB -15,0 10 dB 20 dB -20,0 30 dB -25,0  B1  B2/B1 S 2 B 2 B1 ⋅ N 0 ⋅ F   S1  B2  = ⋅ ⋅  1 +    − 1 S1 B1 S1  B1 ⋅ N 0 ⋅ F    • Conflicting requirements between − high spectral efficiency and − low energy consumptionSource: Nokia Siemens Networks31 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 32. Overall primary power of network• Signal processing and transport taken into Entire signal Processing account in addition to RF RF amplifier except η Pt power amplifier RF amplifier Pt Pt = Pprim , RF ⋅ η Pprim , exRF = α ⋅ Pprim, ex RF Pprim, RF η Pt Pprim = Pprim ,exRF + Pprim , RF = Pprim ,exRF + η Pprim Same peak throughput, cellular system Same area capacity, cellular systemΣprim, total [dB] Σprim, total [dB] 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Δ [dB] 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Δ [dB] 4,00 0.00 0,0000 Propagation 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 Serie 2 n= 2,00 coefficient -4.50 -5,0000 s1 0,00 Serie 2.5 n= n=2 -9.00 -10,0000 s2 -2,00 n = 2.5 Serie 3 n= n=3 s3 -4,00 -13.50 Serie 3.5 n= α = 0.01 n = 3.5 -15,0000 -6,00 n=4 α = 0.01 s4 Serie 4 n= -8,00 -18.00 -20,0000 s5Source: Nokia Siemens Networks32 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 33. Multi-hop systems• Single-hop system (LOS) • Multi-hop system (LOS)                              • Total transmit power savings for same antenna gains and different path loss exponents Σ prim ,total , multi − hop [dB ] = Σprim, total multi-hop [dB] 0   1  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  N ⋅ α + n  -2 Propagation = 10 ⋅ log   N  [dB ] coefficient  α +1  -4 n=2   -6   n = 2.5 -8 n=3 n = 3.5 -10 n=4 -12 α = 0.01 -14 N – Number of hopsSource: Nokia Siemens Networks33 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 34. New directions I• New challenging requirements for improved user experience − to increase cell edge throughput and − average cell capacity Interference avoidance through Interference suppression Interference shaping and high reuse factors through classical MIMO exploitation through distributed MIMO and relaying• More balanced throughput across deployment area requires BMBF EASY-C project − interference mitigation techniques and − new deployment concepts combined with complex signal processing (CoMP – Cooperative Multipoint)Source: Nokia Siemens Networks / BMBF EASY-C project34 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 35. New directions II• New concepts like cognitive radio getting more attention due to − limited available identified frequency spectrum and − a more flexible regulatory approach for the allocation of frequency bands• SON – Self-Organising Networks to manage complexity• Future Internet applications increasingly require − short-range communication systems − M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems• Increasing data traffic as well as concerns on climate change and CO2 emissions result in requirements to improve energy-efficiency of ICT systems• Societal challenges on the agenda to investigate, how ICT systems can support • more efficient use of energy and resources • in other sectors of the economy and society• ICT research subjects will address more interdisciplinary topicsSource: Nokia Siemens Networks35 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 36. Conclusions• Traffic in mobile and wireless communication systems is significantly increasing• Traffic growth in relation to flat rate billing models result in economic challenges• Technology developments in chip technology and architectures supporting increased system complexity• Future systems for ubiquitous connectivity will provide − increased throughput, − short-range communications, − M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems and − heterogeneous networks for the Future Internet• Future systems based on optimized integration of major building blocks − multicarrier radio systems, multi-standard networks, heterogeneous and self- organized networks − active antennas, wideband radio systems and liquid radio − unified radio resource management and cognitive networks• Energy efficiency is a new major concern in research and developmentSource: Nokia Siemens Networks36 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
  • 37.     37 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
  • 38. Acknowledgement The presenter would like to acknowledge the contributions from his colleagues at Nokia Siemens Networks to this presentation.Source: Nokia Siemens Networks38 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011

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