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Video Offload -Six trends you NEED to understand!

Video Offload -Six trends you NEED to understand!



From a Webinar by Maravedis-Rethink

From a Webinar by Maravedis-Rethink
Presented by
Peter White, Principal Analyst and Founder, Rethink Technology Research Ltd
5thNovember 2013



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    Video Offload -Six trends you NEED to understand! Video Offload -Six trends you NEED to understand! Presentation Transcript

    • Video Offload - Six trends you NEED to understand! Peter White, Principal Analyst and Founder, Rethink Technology Research Ltd 5th November 2013 1
    • My service is called Faultline 2
    • Six Trends 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Free to air TV to shift to the internet 75% of TV viewing will shift to tablets Movies transit to OTT delivery VoD releases Hollywood talent for more OTT TV Everywhere becomes most viewed video WiFi offload only escape for next four years 3
    • TREND 1: Broadcast Free to Air TV to go over the internet – Is this really happening Assumption: Aereo grows to Netflix proportions Reaches 30 million homes in 5 years. Aereo says it will reach 78.5 million individuals A mobile stream is 550kbps = 700 Petabytes a month going through Cellular – Just in the US Virtually doubles US data traffic on its own 4
    • TREND 1: Broadcast Free to Air Tv to go over the internet Netflix is 30% plus of US internet traffic at prime time – used between 1 to 2 hours a day. 11% of this is on a mobile device, 5% on a tablet Currently mobile traffic is just a few % of global fixed line traffic which is currently around 44 Exabytes a month 5
    • TREND 2: 75% of all pay and free TV viewing will shift from TVs to tablets Viewing on Tablets has already doubled since 2012 - Ooyala Global Video Index From Q4 to Q1 Viewers watched 5X longer on tablets 4X longer on smartphones, than last year Tablet audiences spent more than half of their viewing time watching premium longform content. 6
    • TREND 2: 75% of all pay and free TV viewing will shift from TVs to tablets Already 74% of consumers view 30 minutes of video a day 3 portable devices/home means that portable viewing approaches 10% of online viewing Hours spent watching streaming video on tablets and mobile increased 100% in 2012 Tablet viewing up to 7% of online video by June 2013, up from 3% a year ago. 7
    • Mobile as a percentage of Total OTT video 75% 80% 70% 55% 60% 50% 35% 40% 30% 15% 20% 10% 3% 7% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 8 2016 2017
    • As tablet ownership rises, more and more homes will perform like this 9
    • Advent of the headless media gateway and transcoding super-chips 10
    • TREND 3: Movie Industry will transition from Theatrical release to OTT release In 2009 US DVD revenues fell 13% went below box office for first time since 2002 Box office = $9.87 billion DVD = $8.73 billion. US DVD movie revenue peaked in 2004 at $12.1 billion It has fallen every year since 11
    • The Trend in theatrical Admissions over ten years in the US is definitively down 12
    • Online movies Netflix et al up 135% But this only drives $3.0 billion of consumer spend and $1.7 billion to the studios DVD/Blu-Ray now $11.1bn DVD = 43% views, but 79% of revenue Source IHS Screen Digest 13
    • 14
    • Trend 4: VoD kills TV Channels, releasing half of Hollywood to make OTT content Talent already leaving Hollywood – Going to Broadcast TV, Cable Networks and Original Content – all of which goes OTT Talent soon will leave less watched TV Channels and go to OTT Viewing gap - Between the good and the bad 15
    • Recent US programs with ZERO viewership – according to Nielsen Fox Soccer News – Since cancelled Mexican music program, ReMexa For What It’s Worth – Antiques valuation in the US Women’s Professional Rodeo NBA Gametime 11 am baketball Preview show Canadian LGBT travel show Trending 10 a celebrity pop-culture news show Nielsen has a vested interest to over-report viewing on every channel to promote advertising 16
    • US TV Mega series Game of thrones – 14 million 24 – Over 9 million over 9 seasons Desperate Housewives – 10 million+ for 8 seasons Lost – Over 10 million for 6 seasons 17
    • Trend 5: Pay TV Everywhere will become the new normal delivered online TV Everywhere inside the home promoted by trends in transcoding Media Gateway TV Outside the home will springboard off inhome success – Comcast leads in rights Placeshifting rights now to be resold by Arris Download to play on portable device security about to enter the scene 18
    • Other Accelerators 1.1bn smartphones deployed, just 560m video capable!! ALL new smart phones are video capable – trend accelerates 19
    • 20
    • US Monthly Cellular Data Usage MBs 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 21 2016 2017
    • What do Operators expect they will do? 22
    • Voice Revenues 120 100 100 80 60 40 40 20 0 2000 2010 23
    • Trend 6: WiFi offload is the only answer NOW Other moves for cellcos include: Staying ahead of 3GPP curve with small cells, Hetnets, DAS, MIMO and LTE-A – High CAPEX Getting more spectrum – High CAPEX Installing LTE Broadcast – Low Capex, minimal effect Install WiFi – High Capex, some effect Acquire WiFi Ops – No Capex, huge effect – but valuation effects Trade for WiFi capacity – Opex up, Capex down 24
    • LTE Broadcast as a cure for YouTube The Problem with MBMS was that it needed a brand new extra chip to receive it Qualcomm fixed that when it put support for MBMS into its existing Snapdragon chips Other LTE modem makers have done the same in their App processor Gangnam Style caused mayhem on cellular networks but if it happened again, any network with LTE Broadcast would make light work of it There are over 100 use cases laid out at Verizon for LTE Broadcast for next year 25
    • Verizon Wireless It has the NFL Will Broadcasting be just another MediaFLO? Broadcasting on cellular – It doesn’t work because we haven’t tried it Not everyone has sports rights so is LTE JUST for Live events? 26
    • There is Dogma within Cellcos that to control QoE they must control every part of the network – Using WiFi offload will require new thinking – not all from 3GPP 27
    • Enter the Homespot A Homespot is a software upgrade to an existing Home gateway to offer commercial WiFi Free in France – Created 5 million Homespots, offloaded 70% plus of traffic In order to survive SFR added 4 million Homespots Netherlands Liberty Global/Ziggo have 2 million In Belgium today Voo and Telenet have 1 million Why do these countries need a cellular network at all In US Comcast, others, plus 300k new hotspots 28
    • HomeSpots Think of Homespots as “unintentionally placed” Hotspots – less efficient, but oceans of capacity On aggregate, use of HomeSpots will dramatically tilt investment in favor of WiFi, in a combination of Homespots/Hotspots 29
    • Consequences include Complete re-evaluation of the worth of Cellular operators They will be split into two – those who own WiFi, and those who don’t An irresistible desire by the management of cellular operators to slow Capex in favor of buying WiFi capacity 30
    • Telco Valuations Cellco Valuations 31
    • 32
    • Wireless Infrastructure Analyst Firm Since 2002 CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 33 © Maravedis Inc.
    • Why Maravedis-Rethink? Carrier Relationships. Expert Analysts. Real Time Value. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 34 © Maravedis Inc.
    • We protect the INTEGRITY of our data Interviews w. Carriers Online Surveys • CTOs, Director of RAN, Backhaul, Core, Network Planning • Detailed Phone Interviews • Email Follow up • Regular Webinars • Database of 2000 operator contacts • Regular Monkey Survey • Share Results Validation • Interviews with Vendors and ecosystem • Cross match of Data • Secondary Research CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 35 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
    • Faultline Service: Description • Analyzes the seismic shocks reverberating through the video industry and its impact on the wireless networks Deliverables 48 Weekly Research Notes  Analyst Support Lead Analyst Peter White SPECIAL OFFER, SUBSCRIBE TO FAULTLINE ANNUAL SERVICE AND RECEIVE A FREE COPY OF THE REPORT “The Faultline Revisited Disruption in Video Delivery from 2013 to 2023” CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 36 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
    • RAN Service: Description • Covers Macro cells, small cells and Carrier WiFi. • Vendor Profiles & SWOT Analysis • Shipments and Market Forecasts • Carrier expectations & Trends. Deliverables  2 comprehensive reports per year (PDF and Excel)  Webinars for Clients ONLY  18 research notes per year  Analyst Support Lead Analyst Caroline Gabriel CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 37 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
    • Backhaul Service: Description • Covers PTP , PMP, NLOS and emerging backhaul technologies • Vendor Profiles & SWOT Analysis • Shipments and Market Forecasts • Carrier expectations & Trends Deliverables  2 comprehensive reports per year (PDF and Excel)  Webinars for Clients ONLY  18 research notes per year  Analyst Support Lead Analyst Esteban Monturus CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 38 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
    • Contact Information Adlane Fellah, Customer Engagement (305) 865-1006 (514) 313-5656 info@maravedis-bwa.com http://www.maravedis-bwa.com http://www.rethinkresearch.biz/ www.linkedin.com/in/adlanefellah www.twitter.com/maravedis MaravedisRethink CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 39 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.