Opportunities for reshaping the future of your industry?


Published on

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Opportunities for reshaping the future of your industry?

  1. 1. www.pwc.co.uk Opportunities for reshaping the future of your industry? 27 June 2012Colin Brereton,PartnerFuture of wirelessinternational conference
  2. 2. Contents • Introduction • The opportunities • How can you influence them? • What needs to change? • Questions...PwC 2
  3. 3. www.pwc.com/communicationsPwC 3
  4. 4. Glancing back 2007 2012 Hard wired internet Mobile internet “Cloud....what?” Cloud hype giving way to reality Smart phones for a select few Smart phones and tablets go mainstream “IT approved apps” App explosion Broadcast to dedicated devices Content on any device Profitability = voice services Profitability = IP data services Passive online experience Online interaction reshaping societyPwC 4
  5. 5. TodayMobile is ubiquitous with far greater impact and adoption than previous technologies 2011 Global Mobile Mainframe Computing Penetration Rates by Region 1960-1980 160% (1M Users) 140% Mini Computing 1980 -1990 120% (10M Users) 100% Personal Computing 1990-2000 80% (100M Users) 60% Desktop Internet Computing 40% 2000-2010 (1,400M Users) 20% Mobile Internet 0% Computing 2010 (5,000M Users)PwC Source: International Telecommunication Union 5
  6. 6. Consumers today• 425 million Facebook mobile users• 18-34 year old survey - felt more naked without their smart phone - than without their wallet• Volume of IP-based social text messages sent in 2011 was equal to $13.9 bn in text messaging services offered by cellular providers that carriers may have lost (Ovum)• Significant attitude shift from “It’s going to take over my life” to “it makes my life richer” - but they want certainties around security and privacy, trust and convenience• 40% of users of tablets - use their tablets while they are watching TV (Nielsen Q2 2011)• Increased demand for video streaming• 10% increase in mobile penetration increases 0.6% increase in GDPSource: GSMA MWC 2012 unless otherwise indicatedPwC 6
  7. 7. Business today• 10 million people employed by mobility by 2015 (8 million 2012)• Overall 1/2 of all retail transactions in US - access the web during some point of their shopping experience• 2011 Skype provided 300 billion minutes of communications - 50% was video• Best Buy: 77% of orders purchased on the phone are picked up in the store• Ebay: 10% of all transactions closed on a mobile device today – company feels it will triple in the next 3-5 years• Apps are now a ~$10bn market, growing at ~100% a year with companies enjoying staggering growth rates - Draw Something achieved 1m users in 9 days, it took Facebook 9 months and AOL 9 years (source – Business Intelligence)Source: GSMA MWC 2012 unless otherwise indicatedPwC 7
  8. 8. After tomorrowExplosive rises and falls• US wireless penetration reached 102% by the end of June 2011 (CTIA)• Wireless penetration exceeds 100% in various countries around the world e.g. Argentina exceeds 120% and is still growing (S&P Industry Survey 19 Jan 2012)• By 2013 consumer spending on wireless data will be $108bn (up 47% from 2011) and $91.5bn on wireless voice (down by 11% from 2011).• Ebay: 10% of all transactions closed on a mobile device today – company feels it will triple in the next 3-5 years• Global internet traffic will quadruple by 2015• 25 fold increase 2010 - 2015 - to 788 million access the internet only via mobile• Mobile video forecast to represent 70% of all data traffic by 2016• By 2017 mobile broadband traffic will be 35 times current levels• 24 billion connected devices by 2020• 2.3bn M2M connections in 2020Source: TIA 2012 ICT Market Review & Forecast/GSMA MWC 2012PwC 8
  9. 9. After tomorrowExplosive rises and fallsPwC 9
  10. 10. A connected and mobile ecosystem ofchallenges and opportunities • For operators • For newer market entrants and OTT providers In new service areas In changing regions Within new vertical markets • By 2020 the impact of connected devices is expected to create a market opportunity for global business worth $4.5 trillionPwC 10
  11. 11. Partnership opportunities for all?• The Yankee Group forecasts that ~20% revenue growth ($0.5-1.0 tn) is available through the provision of new services: • Video streaming and video download • Digital TV • CDN services • Cloud services (SaaS, Paas, IaaS) • Mobile advertising • Location based services • Mobile broadband • Mobile data services • Managed tele-presence • VOIPPwC 11
  12. 12. Three regions lead world economicgrowth ratesSource: IMFPwC 12
  13. 13. Africa a leading growth region 1. 54 countries 2. Continent size 30.1 mn sq km 3. Continent pop. 1.1bn 4. Africa GDP (PPP) $300-$36,600 5. Africa inflation range 1.2-26.2% 6. Africa literacy range 34%-92%Source: CIA World Fact BookPwC 13
  14. 14. Africa Leads the world in mobile money with 40 million usersSource: CISCO VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2010)PwC 14
  15. 15. Asia a leading growth region• Asia - population: 4,2bn (60% of world population)• Expected to peak at around 5.14 in 2055• China most populous in world has peaked at over 1.3 bn, the majority of whom live in the east of the country• Rapidly ageing and forecast to fall by 400m between now and 2100. (United Nations/The Economist)• To be over taken by India currently 1.24 bn around 30% of Asia’s population growing to 1.7bn by 2065PwC 15
  16. 16. Asia a diverse mix of markets• Japan, Australia and much of SE Asia are developed and fairly mature• Emerging markets like India, parts of Middle East and China represent huge volumes and ARPU per month, USD, India and Other Selected Countries/Regions, 2010 opportunities for m-Health, m- Money, m- 53.250.7 Education, regionalisation 43.4• Indian market ARPU on average US$2 - 30.930.3 commercial onus is on how to encourage 13.913.613.212.110.8 9.6 consumption 9.3 2.2• 60% of the Indian population lives in rural areas and contributes 20% of GDP• Rural users commonly depend more on mobile communications to stay connected and have a greater need for channels to deliver them all manner of services and goods• How to encourage a profitable rural business by: understanding the customer base better addressing user’s needs for services to be micro local and in language of comfort developing service models fit for a varied user basePwC 16
  17. 17. Latam a leading growth region• IP traffic is growing fastest in Latin America (Cisco Visual networking index forecast and methodology 2010-2015)• According to the IDB, specifically for Latin America, it is estimated that a 10% rise in BB penetration increases the GDP by 3.2% on average and boosts productivity by 2.6 %• Economy reached a critical level of development by surpassing 10.000 USD per capita barrier• Region reaching a socially sustainable model of growth:• > 80% urban population• 200m middle class population and growing• + a young segment with 150m < 14 years of age• Telecom market expected to grow at 7.7% - faster than GDP in Latin AmericaSource: IMF unless otherwise statedPwC 17
  18. 18. New vertical markets• Mobile payments are changing emerging markets, retail and potentially banking as we know it• mHealth is anticipated as part of a solution to care access in emerging markets and to care cost reduction in the developed world - revenues mostly from diagnosis or monitoring services are projected to accelerate to $23 billion by 2017• mAgriculture - by connecting relevant information sources mobile can increase farming incomes with forecasts of c. $140bn by 2020• mEducation - technology can enable an inclusive education for all by increasing access, boosting confidence, providing links to funding• Mobile advertising (always on, portable, multi device, location data) offers an untapped and uniquely powerful marketing channel• M2M - no longer a thing of the future... smart grid utilities set to grow 15-20% per yearPwC 18
  19. 19. mPayments• 25% of US retailers have already deployed an NFC capable terminal and POS.• NFC/mobile wallet - the in and out fast services is highest adoption (30% convenience and 30% vending) - Osama Bedier – VP Wallet and Payments Google• “People born in the last 5 years will never have a physical wallet.” - John Partridge, President at Visa• Digitizing cash is the next big thing for financial services and telecom sector 45 mobile operators committed to SIM based NFC services• 41M NFC devices sold in 2011 - 498M by 2016• Global mobile transactions are expected to nearly double by 2014 to $1.13tn (CITI)PwC 19
  20. 20. mPayments• Over 2.5bn adults (~72%) in developing world are unbanked (Boston Consulting Group April 2011)• Currently 92% of all transactions in emerging countries is cash.” (Visa)• Almost 2.5 bn people in developing world have mobile phones – potentially 2bn unbanked mobile users could be served through mobile financial service (Boston Consulting Group April 2011)• Operators see proximity payments as a key revenue stream inside emerging markets• NFC and carrier billing are also seen as major opportunities for telecom• Telecom operators are partnering with FS organizations to leverage best of breed approaches• Mobile banking is inevitablePwC 20
  21. 21. mHealthWorldwide revenues are projected to accelerate to $23 billion by 2017…Worldwide mobile health revenue forecast 2013 – 2017E Key assumptions: • 2-3% of chronic disease patients • 20-30% of post- acute discharge • 10-15% of ageingPwC Page 21
  22. 22. mHealthEurope, North America and Asia Pacific dominant marketsGlobal mHealth Market Opportunity by regions, US$ Billion and share in %, 2017EPwC Page 22
  23. 23. mHealthOpportunities vary by regionMix of Revenues by Mobile Health Service Categories in various Regions, 2017E Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring Diagnosis Diagnosis Diagnosis Diagnosis Diagnosis(Source Qualcomm)PwC Page 23
  24. 24. mHealth• Remote regions - clinical use for quick look and triage: Emergency medicine trauma management Field use, disaster response Remote monitors in obstetrics and gynaecology to confirm pregnancy/detect complications Guided procedures in remote locations• Established health regions NHS choices - to meet to help citizens manage their health & wellbeing and make informed choices about their care United Healthcare Group – myuhc treatment provider search facility and claim processing serviceSource: Mobisante, NHSPwC 24
  25. 25. mAgriculturePwC 25
  26. 26. mEducationPwC 26
  27. 27. Mobile advertisingMobile is unique to marketers because it combines four characteristicsthat otherwise can’t be found in any ad channel – together they makefor an incredibly personal and immediate experience 1. Always on 2. Portable 3. Multi-device (e.g. camera) 4. Available location dataSource: Millennial Media-GSMA presentation MWC 2012PwC
  28. 28. Machine to machine now a reality• Growing demand, rising energy costs and EC targets to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2020; smart grid utilities set to grow 15-20% per year• A number of operators have already established dedicated M2M practices (e.g. Vodafone) or are active in the space• Roll-out of 3G & LTE will help drive the growth of M2M• As M2M devices grow; so too will the pressure 1. Automotive to rollout IPv6 e.g Ford connectivity strategy combines designing vehicles with built in 2. Energy & Utilities software, connectivity for brought in devices and beamed in data from the cloud 3. Security: home & business• Health compliance – remote patient 4. Health monitoring 5. Manufacturing• Home securitySource: FactivaPwC 28
  29. 29. A connected and mobile ecosystem ofopportunity for all?• By 2020 the impact of connected devices is expected to create a market opportunity for global business worth $4.5 trillion• For operators• For newer market entrants and OTT providers • In new service areas • In changing regions • Within new vertical markets• But.... • Who will decide who is connected? • Who will influence the future created by your industry?Source: TIA 2012 ICT Market Review & ForecastPwC 29
  30. 30. Opportunities waiting at your doors• Mobile technology can increase farming incomes in the developing world by billions• Mobile technology can transform healthcare in the developed and developing worlds• Mobile technology can enable an inclusive education for all• Mobile technology can drive social benefit through awareness in disease prevention, combating alcohol and drug abuse, connecting disaffected groups• Mobile penetration correlates to GDP growth – for every 10 new phones amongst 100 people in a developing market their country’s GDP grows by 0.8% (World Bank 2009)But....pricing remains an access issue for the most disadvantaged in remote,high-density, poor populations most likely to benefitPwC Slide 30
  31. 31. Challenges for operators • High costs of continuous investment (fibre, LTE, 4G, spectrum) to meet the low margin data demands of their customers• 107% LTE CAPEX • 86% operator CAGR 2011-2014 energy budget used by • 18x data traffic increase the network on mobile networks 2011-2016 • 60-80% network energy • Government regulation has impacted operator ability to afford consumption attributable to base stations more spectrum to meet the data demands of their customer • Declining share of wallet as high margin (SMS/Voice) services are • Industry cooperation on being absorbed by free “over the standards and open top” providers platforms remains a barrierSource: Cisco VNI, iSuppli, NSN, IEEE May 2012PwC 31
  32. 32. Strategic changes needed in yourindustry “customer data is the new oil” (Etisalat) An open infrastructure and proactive co-investment Supportive regulation for without continued recourse to interoperability, common shareholders standards and privacy laws Broader, looser collaborations: • with and between governments • supra government • with and across industries • within and across the industry supply chain on new services May 2012PwC 32
  33. 33. The real issue “The problem is not whether business will survive in competition with other business, but whether any business will survive at all in the face of social change.” Laurence Joseph McGinley, President of Fordham UniversityPwC 33
  34. 34. In this ecosystem what is your role as an industry group?• As collaborators...? Education Industry Students• As individuals...?• Who will lead you..? Infrastructure providers Utilities Farmers• Who will be theinterface with Cloud computing & storage Analogue/digital service providerssociety? Householders Governments Network service Analogue/digital providers Analogue/digital service enablers service retailers Retailers Healthcare Technology Device providers providers Patients Banks Markets Shoppers PwC Slide 34
  35. 35. Questions for you• What is your role as a group?• Given your relationships – are you really influencing yet?• Is your reach wide enough – are you supporting yourself, your industry, your home economy, or society on a wider platform?• What needs to change in your relationships and in your industry for these benefits to be reaped for more than commercial gain?• As an industry “player” do you take ownership for the shape the future of your industry?• How can you influence who benefits?• This is your time.....how will you remember it?PwC Slide 35
  36. 36. Answers @www.pwc.com/communicationsSource: Colin.brereton@uk.pwc.comPwC 36
  37. 37. Questions...© 2012 PwC. All rights reserved. Not for further distribution without the permission of PwC."PwC" refers to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited(PwCIL), or, as the context requires, individual member firms of the PwC network. Eachmember firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or any othermember firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible orliable for the acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of theirprofessional judgment or bind them in any way. No member firm is responsible or liable for theacts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another memberfirms professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way.EP6-2012-05-25-12 16-MS