Operator plans for the ultra-dense network
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Operator plans for the ultra-dense network

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Presented by Caroline Gabriel, Research director, MARAVEDIS-RETHINK.

Presented by Caroline Gabriel, Research director, MARAVEDIS-RETHINK.

Presented in Cambridge Wireless Small Cells SIG - APRIL 3 2014

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    Operator plans for the ultra-dense network Operator plans for the ultra-dense network Presentation Transcript

    • C A R O L I N E G A B R I E L R E S E A R C H D I R E C T O R M A R A V E D I S - R E T H I N K A P R I L 3 2 0 1 4 © Maravedis-Rethink 2014 Operator plans for the ultra-dense network
    • Agenda © Rethink Technology Research 2014  The drivers for densification  More antennas or more base stations?  Macro layer – Massive MIMO  Small cell developments  Hyper-dense networks – pros and cons  Operator plans
    • Methodology Top 40 cellco groups Number and profile of cell sites Data requirements, location, business model, spectrum, regulatory Cell sites required to be added or upgraded Equipment and software deployed 2013-2018 + capex Demand driven forecast Primary and secondary data + modelling for each operator Additional detailed survey Vendor input on shipments and expectations Forecasts by region, technology, equipment type, mode, spectrum etc
    • Drivers for density © Maravedis-Rethink 2014  Massive increase in data traffic  Limited ability to cope with traditional models  Spectral efficiency  Higher bandwidth  Combined with cost pressures  Critical to reduce radiated power – battery life, not coverage, limits usage Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $bn Capacity investments Data revenues
    • Many tools are needed © Maravedis-Rethink 2014 New technology % required capacity increase Y1 % required TCO decrease Y1 % required capacity increase Y4 % required TCO decrease Y4 LTE upgrade 17% 14% 4% 4% Wi-Fi offload 16% 20% 9% 13% Public access small cells 14% 18% 24% 23% Deconstructed RAN (RRH and distributed antennas) 11% 17% 13% 17% New or refarmed spectrum and carrier aggregation 17% 9% 16% 12% SuperMacro/LTE-A eg MIMO, CoMP 14% 10% 18% 15% Adaptive networking/SON 11% 12% 16% 16%
    • Densification: two layers  Massive MIMO  Large antenna arrays  Advanced beamforming for coverage and mobility  Extend performance and life of macro BTS  Array gain + little interference  Small Cells  Low power, low cost highly localized access points  Capacity and coverage, less mobility  Higher cell density  smaller path losses 6
    • More antennas or more cells? © Maravedis-Rethink 2014 MIMO antenna deployments Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 units MIMO Small cells OR ?
    • Macro layer trends © Maravedis-Rethink 2014  One architecture is not enough – MIMO and small cells need each other  Distributed architectures  Virtualization  C-RAN  Phantom Cell  SuperMacro  Massive MIMO+ CA  3D beamforming  CoMP  Macro layer densifies too, and works with small cell layer  eICIC  MSA  Some operators are ‘macro- first’, but many advances look forward to multilayer
    • Enter the HetSNet © Maravedis-Rethink 2014 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 units C-RAN Distributed RAN Traditional Super Macro Small cells Small cell and C-RAN macrocell growth Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
    • More cells in all layers © Maravedis-Rethink 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Same x2 x4 x10 %ofrespondents Macro Small MIMO Increase in sites and antennas Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
    • Towards hyper-density © Maravedis-Rethink 2014  Separate layer of small cells  Spectral/spatial reuse  Capacity/coverage  Location awareness  Wi-Fi integration  Higher power first?  How dense?  Qualcomm Nascar  Known benefits – but do they scale?  Scaling challenges  Cost  Backhaul  Planning burden  Interference  New flexibility required
    • Enablers of density Maravedis-Rethink 2014  Next gen SON  True plug and play  Next gen interference management, eICIC  Flexible cells  Dynamic coordination  pCell  Cognitive radio  Ad hoc viral networks  Opportunistic cells  Multiflow  Indoor out, 4G homespots  WiFi and WiGig  Partners eg utilities
    • Harnessing new spectrum © Maravedis-Rethink 2014  Importance of TDD  Asymmetry  Channel reciprocity  Underused  High bands – MIMO and small cells  Wi-Fi, WiGig  LTE-U? 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 units TDD FDD LTE small cell metrocell growth Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
    • Barriers © Maravedis-Rethink 2014  Diminishing returns?  Chaotic capacity  Network becomes ‘unplanned’ at one end, massive management challenges at the other  Viral not optimal  Plug and play vs fully flexible  Fewer cells under operator control eg homespots  BSS/OSS/analytics  Traditional concerns  Cost factors  Backhaul  Scalability  Devices
    • Operator priorities Maravedis-Rethink 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Super Macro Metrocells Integrated WiFi Virtualized core Simple' LTE Premier network priority (% of respondents) Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
    • The holistic network © Maravedis-Rethink 2014  Increase in cells at all layers  Integration with C- RAN, DAS etc  Interworking  Towards HetSNet and the holistic network  ‘5G’? The HetNet evolves. Source: ASOCS
    • Questions? © Rethink Technology Research 2011  For more information on Rethink Technology Research, please email caroline@rethinkresearch.biz  For details of bespoke research, reports on wireless networks and operator strategies, and more