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Mobile Status and Trends in the US

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FUSECO Forum Berlin 15-16 Nov. 2012 …

FUSECO Forum Berlin 15-16 Nov. 2012

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  • 1. Mobile Status and Trends in the USFUSECO Forum Berlin 15-16 Nov. 2012 Inventor of MP3 Co-Inventor of AAC (iPod/iTunes, Mobile Phones) Designed XM Radio, WorldSpace, and Sirius Satellite Broadcasting Systems Designer of firmware for first flash-memory and hard-disk-based MP3 players Inventor of AAC-Low Delay and co-inventor of AAC-ELD Co-Inventor of MPEG Surround and HD-AAC Software supplier to over 1,000 customers, deployed in billions of devices Fraunhofer IIS, Erlangen HP Baumeister – Fraunhofer USA, San Jose, CA hp.baumeister@dmt.fraunhofer.org© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 2. US Market Highlights•  US is leading in 4G, LTE deployment•  US leading in mobile O/S’s, services…•  Largest smartphone market•  Largest tablet market•  Huge growth projected in these devices …..worldwide and with it - traffic!© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 3. US companies dominate mobile O/S’s© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 4. 2011 US Highlights•  Skype acquired by Microsoft•  Motorola acquired by Google•  Sprint announces switch to LTE•  Adobe gives up mobile Flash•  FaceTime deployed in all Apple devices•  AT&T tries to acquire T-Mobile© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 5. 2012 US Highlights•  AT&T was not able to acquire T-Mobile•  T-Mobile acquiring metro-PCS•  Sprint acquired by Softbank•  Apple breaks the “most valuable company ever” threshold•  Facebook goes public "As proud as I am that a billion people use Facebook each month, Im also really happy that over 600 million people now share and connect on Facebook every month using mobile devices," said Zuckerberg.© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 6. 2012 US Highlights•  Android > 75% smartphone market share•  Jelly Bean (4.1, 4.2) released•  Includes full AAC codec stack from Fraunhofer IIS •  Including AAC-ELD© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 7. 2012 US Update© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 8. 2012 US Update© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 9. Verizon – Global LTE Leader•  LTE covering 75% of the US population •  current 3G coverage planned for e.o. 2013•  over 225 million people•  in more than 419 cities•  predicts completion in mid 2013•  VoLTE rollout shifting back to early 2014 (from 2012 last year)•  VZ LTE average data rates of 5 to 12 megabits per second (Mbps) on the downlink and 2 to 5 Mbps on the uplink (about 10 X 3 G CDMA speeds)© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 10. Verizon – Global LTE Leader© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 11. MetroPCS: LTE Jump-Start for T-Mobile •  MetroPCS is •  First LTE carrier in US •  launched VoLTE in Aug. •  LTE currently in 14 markets, 1 Mio subs •  43% of its customers now use smartphones. •  Aggressive push for VoLTE, to free up CDMA spectrum for LTE •  First to use RCS, introduce Joyn in US© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 12. Sprint – from WiMax to LTE•  2011: “Deployment of LTE technology to enhance current 4G”•  Sprint launched LTE on its existing 1.9 GHz spectrum in mid-year 2012•  LTE now in 30 markets•  In 2013, expects LTE footprint to cover more than 250 million people•  Sprint essentially stopped selling WiMAX devices•  VoLTE service to be rolled out in 2013•  LTE-Advanced in mid 2013•  Even prepaid now moving to LTE© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 13. AT&T •  LTE currently in 80 markets •  Planning to reach 99% of its wireline coverage areas •  $ 14 B LTE network expansion budget •  LTE-Advanced in 2013 •  VoLTE in 2013?© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 14. AT&T – late in LTE© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 15. US Market HighlightsSmartphones© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 16. US Market HighlightsSmartphones© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 17. Voice Questionnaire•  Who believes voice will be a source of revenue in 2017?© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 18. HD Voice•  Still elusive in the US •  VoLTE pushed back by most carriers •  Intercarrier VoLTE seen by most sometime beyond 2015 •  Needs transcoding between fixed (G.722) and mobile (AMR-WB) •  …. and OTT (AAC-LD/-ELD, Silk, others….)•  7 kHz speech codecs don’t really deliver “HD”© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 19. Voice Questionnaire•  Who believes AM radio provides high definition audio?© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 20. Voice Questionnaire•  Who believes voice at the current level of audio quality will be a source of revenue in 2017?© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 21. Full-HD Voice© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 22. Full-HD Voice•  Deliver the full audio spectrum•  AAC-ELD already used in FaceTime •  Deployed in 300 Mio + devices •  Native codec in iOS•  Now also native in Android Jelly Bean (4.1, 4.2)•  Full-HD Voice using AAC-ELD now natively available in •  > 800 M smartphones •  85% of smartphone O/S’s (US shares)© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 23. © Fraunhofer IIS
  • 24. © Fraunhofer IIS
  • 25. …. The coming mobile data crunch•  Qualcomm, others anticipate 1000 X in mobile data traffic by 2017•  There is no 1000 X in spectrum!© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 26. Mobile Outlook•  Between 2010 and 2015, the global installed base of smartphones will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33 percent.•  The tablet market will move even faster, achieving a CAGR of 81 percent during the same period.•  This growth in devices - and thus traffic - cannot be sustained without a significant upgrade in mobile network capacity.•  Yankee Groups forecast data predicts the combined total of LTE and WiMAX mobile lines will reach 675 million by 2015, up from just 31 million at the end of 2011.Source: Yankee Oct 2011•  Brace for the traffic onslought!© Fraunhofer IIS
  • 27. Dankeschön!© Fraunhofer IIS

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