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HetNet and LTE trends

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Caroline Gabriel …

Caroline Gabriel
Research Director Maravedis-Rethink
November 5 2013

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  • 1. June 1 CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis-Rethink 2013 HetNet and LTE trends Caroline Gabriel Research Director Maravedis-Rethink November 5 2013
  • 2. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis-Rethink 2013 www.maravedis-bwa.com 2 November 2013 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. www.maravedis-bwa.com – Drivers for a new type of network – Different layers require different backhaul strategies – Challenges of C-RAN and metrocells – The evolution towards an elastic backhaul Agenda
  • 3. November 2013The 4G Challenge New topologies needed for profitable 4G • Operators must invest to handle 13fold rise in mobile data • With conventional technology, 4G capex will outrun revenue at least until 2017 • Solution: new infrastructure topologies and intelligence • LTE not enough on its own – a new way to build networks is needed for 4G to deliver full benefits 3 Operator predicted capacity capex vs revenue Source: MOSA, MaRe survey 65 carriers 33 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 333 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018$bn Capacity investments Data revenues
  • 4. November 2013Two architectures Macro and small cell layers – new economics • Macro base stations increasingly deconstructed leading to Cloud-RAN • Aim to save cost and power and allocated network resource flexibly where needed • All cell sites controlled from central servers • Mirrored by trend to put more intelligence and capacity at the edge in small cells • Most carriers use a combination 4 Small cell and C-RAN macrocell growth Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services Source: MOSA Source: MOSA, MaRe survey 65 carriers 44 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 444 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ,000sites ,000sites C-RAN primary sites C-RAN sub-sites Small cells inc WiFi
  • 5. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis-Rethink 2013 www.maravedis-bwa.com 5 Need to address gap between early adopters and mass market adoption HetNet will not happen overnight November 2013 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. www.maravedis-bwa.com • Small cells and Wi-Fi offload – full potential far from realized • Key catalysts • Full Wi-Fi integration • Full macro interworking • LTE-Advanced • Creating a single small cell layer is first step • Wi-Fi integration milestones • Standards like NGH and Passpoint • Common cores • Single site units Deployment of small cell sites Source:: Maravedis-Rethink RAN Service 141,924 506,544 1,420,395 3,325,526 6,236,174 9,201,048 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 units Wi-Fi/cellular Cellular only Total
  • 6. November 2013 666 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 666 Heterogeneous backhaul • Three priorities for backhaul • As in RAN, different approaches work with different cells • LTE-A BTS – 350Mbps, total 1.4Gbps, small cell 50Mbps, total 500Mbps • Layers may be parallel or in sequence • Rising focus on non-fiber – microwave, broadband, relays • Next step - elasticity Source: Ericsson
  • 7. November 2013 777 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 777 Elastic backhaul •Predicting demand is increasingly tough •User QoE expectations are higher •TCO pressures mean end to over-provisioning •SDN can be highly flexible, but needs to embrace all network, or backhaul will be bottleneck Elastic networks Easily extend gigabit coverage Reduce cost even for peak delivery Seamlessly integrate with small cells and WiFi Source: Fujitsu
  • 8. November 2013 888 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 888 C-RAN’s particular challenges • Fiber currently essential to link radio head and baseband •Multiple 1Gig connection •Multiple 10Gig uplinks from the hotel •Resiliency and fast recovery •Synchronization schemes •Strong QoS •Strong OAM and service management • Early developments for non- fiber operators eg CPRI and fronthaul over microwave Source: Fujitsu
  • 9. November 2013 999 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 999 Metrocells’ particular challenges Access to location Power availability Backhaul Sides of buildings Fragmented ownership Available from real-state owners Fixed broadband from real-estate owners Street furniture City halls, electricity companies Available in lampposts, bus shelters Fiber not naturally present. Wireless required. FTTx infrastruc ture Own or shared infrastructure May not be available (PON avoids it) Integrated (fiber)
  • 10. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis-Rethink 2013 www.maravedis-bwa.com 10 Metrocell Backhaul: frequency band makes the difference 3.4 – 4.2 GHz 6 - 42 GHz 10.5, 26, 28, 32 and 42 GHz 60 and 70-80 GHz Spectrum Bands November 2013
  • 11. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis-Rethink 2013 www.maravedis-bwa.com 11 Metrocell backhaul trends Europe • High social concern regarding antennas – Need for unusual telecom form factors. • Leverage of FTTx infrastructure. • Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS). – for MNOs lacking fixed infrastructure. • More than one backhaul technology per MNO – Millimeter wave: 1st wireless preference. – PmP microwave: Higher interest compared to other regions. November 2013
  • 12. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis-Rethink 2013 www.maravedis-bwa.com 12 Metrocell backhaul forecast Europe Source: Wireless Backhaul Market from an Intermodal Perspective, April 2013 November 2013
  • 13. November 2013Evolution of HetNet The two layers converge in Elastic network 13 The HetNet evolves. Source: ASOCS 1313 www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 131313 • Carriers’ ultimate goal is heterogeneous network • Full interworking and hand-off between macro layer and metro layer • Different technologies (3G, 4G, WiFi) in different spectrum bands behave as single pool of capacity • Common core, management and policy tools allocate resources where most needed
  • 14. February 2013 14 Contact • Caroline Gabriel, Research Director • caroline@rethinkresearch.biz • Tel: +44 207 450 1230 • www.maravedis-bwa.com www.maravedis-bwa.com Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL

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