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Global LTE trends: as momentum to 4G accelerates, successful strategies emerge

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Presented by Dario Talmesio, Principal Analyst Informa Telecoms & Media

Presented by Dario Talmesio, Principal Analyst Informa Telecoms & Media

Published in: Mobile, Technology, Business

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  • 1. Global LTE trends: as momentum to 4G accelerates, successful strategies emerge Dario Talmesio Principal Analyst Informa Telecoms & Media 1
  • 2. Agenda 2 Introduction to ITM LTE market overview Impact of LTE on KPIs – early days, positive signs How is LTE changing consumer behaviour? Services on the radar: what does future hold for LTE? Conclusions and Q&A www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved
  • 3. Informa Telecoms & Media The leading provider of events, insight and training to the global telecoms and media community 50 million220
  • 4. How we help Plan Win BusinessDesign & Manage Business Strategy Product Strategy Go-to-market • Market Sizing & Forecasting • Opportunity/risk spotting • Trend analysis • Scenario planning • Competitor and customer intelligence Your Objective Your Function Your Activity • Business case modelling • Supplier/partner selection • Product benchmarking • Product positioning • Message construction and validation • Sales excellence • Thought leadership • Lead generation • Customer segmentation/targeting Solutions Consultancy
  • 5. Our analysts We have 64 experienced analysts based in 13 research offices.
  • 6. LTE market overview 6www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved
  • 7. 7 Where is LTE today? The numbers (1) LTE subscriptions by region, % of global total LTE subs base Global total LTE subs approaching 250m at end-1Q14 www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% Africa Americas Asia Pacific Europe: Eastern Europe: Western Middle East USA/Canada
  • 8. 8 • North America continues to lead LTE subscription numbers, driven by the early LTE network launches by AT&T Wireless and Verizon Wireless … • …while operator commitment in both developed and developing Asia Pacific markets caused year-on-year subscription growth to end-1Q14 to be as strong as in North America. • And finally Western European operators are pushing for 4G adoption www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved Where is LTE today? The numbers (2) - 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Africa Americas Asia Pacific Europe: Eastern Europe: Western Middle East USA/Canada
  • 9. 9 LTE number of networks by region LTE subs, 1Q14 LTE % of total subs US 111m 31% Japan 46m 32% South Korea 31m 56% Why is now the right time to push LTE? Largest LTE markets, LTE % of total www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved Where is LTE today? The numbers (3)
  • 10. What are the key drivers for LTE uptake? 10 Key drivers for LTE network launches and subs uptake www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved
  • 11. 11www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved Impact of LTE on KPIs and consumer behaviour – early days, positive signs
  • 12. The bottom line: What impact has LTE had on KPIs? 12 • SKT is seeing an almost 50% increase in monthly data usage on LTE compared with 3G, with the respective figures standing at 1.6GB and 1.1GB at end-June 2013. • SKT indicates that 39% of LTE use on its network is for multimedia services, compared with 30% on 3G. • After an ARPU increase of 3.6% in 2012, SKT is expected to raise ARPU by 8% this year, erasing half the 20% seven-year ARPU loss in just two years. • Since launch, Rogers has seen an 80% increase in wireless Internet usage year-on-year. • AT&T has 35% of its postpaid smartphone base using LTE- capable devices and smartphone data usage per device has increased as much as 50% year- on-year to end-2Q13, causing wireless data revenues to increase 19.8% year-on-year and ARPU by 1.8% year-on-year. • EE has found that existing subscribers who have moved to 4G show an increase in ARPU of about 10%. • A third of Verizon Wireless’s retail postpaid connections now have a 4G device, and as much as 59% of its total data traffic is now on its 4G network. • LTE smartphone users consume 8x more data compared with 3G users. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved
  • 13. The bottom line: What impact has LTE had on KPIs? 13
  • 14. 4G is changing user behaviour 14 • Climb in data primarily caused by social media, video, and video services • These three categories now account for 57% of all data over the EE 4G network • Huge spikes in our network activity for iPlayer and Sky Go usage
  • 15. Does WiFi usage change between 3G/4G? 5/29/2014 www.informatandm.com 15 % of data use via Wi-Fi for 3G and 4G Android smartphones, Apr-13 Source: Informa Telecoms and Media, Mobidia
  • 16. What do successful LTE operators tell us about the key components of LTE success? 16www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved
  • 17. Communicating the benefits of LTE over 3G: Speed counts 17www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved
  • 18. The early days…Premium vs. Equal prices in Europe Country Network Name Technol ogy Start Date Dongles (Y/N) Smartphones (Y/N) LTE has price premium vs. 3G (Y/N) Norway Netcom Norway LTE-2600 Dec-09 Y Y N Sweden Telia LTE-8/9/26 Dec-09 Y Y Y Poland Wrodzinie LTE-1800 Sep-10 NA NA NA Poland Eutelia LTE-1800 Sep-10 NA NA NA Austria Mobilkom Austria LTE-2600 Oct-10 Y N Y Finland TeliaSonera Finland LTE-2600 Nov-10 Y Y Y Sweden Net4Mobility LTE-8/9/26 Nov-10 Y Y N Sweden Net4Mobility LTE-8/9/26 Nov-10 Y Y N Denmark Telia Denmark LTE-2600 Dec-10 Y Y N Germany Vodafone Germany LTE-2600 Dec-10 Y Y Y Germany T-Mobile Germany LTE-2600 Apr-11 Y Y N Lithuania Omnitel LTE-1800 May-11 Y Y Y Latvia LMT LTE-1800 Jun-11 Y N N Austria T-Mobile Austria LTE-2600 Jul-11 Y N Y Germany O2 Germany LTE-2600 Jul-11 Y N Y Denmark TDC Mobil LTE-2600 Oct-11 Y N N Poland Plus LTE-1800 Nov-11 Y N N Austria 3 Austria LTE-2600 Nov-11 Y N Y/N Armenia VivaCell-MTS LTE-2600 Dec-11 Y N Y Belarus Yota Bel LTE-2600 Dec-11 closed closed closed Russia Yota Other regions LTE-2600 Dec-11 Y N Y Finland DNA Finland LTE-2600 Dec-11 Y Y Y Sweden 3 Sweden LTE-8/9/26 Dec-11 Y Y N Estonia EMT Estonia LTE-18/26 Jan-12 Y Y Y Hungary T-Mobile Hungary LTE-1800 Jan-12 Y N N Uzbekistan Unitel Uzbekistan LTE Feb-12 N N N Portugal Vodafone Portugal LTE-2600 Feb-12 Y Y Y Croatia T-Mobile Croatia LTE-1800 Mar-12 Y N Y Croatia VIPnet LTE-1800 Mar-12 Y N Y Portugal Sonaecom Servicos Comunicacoes LTE-2600 Mar-12 Y Y Y Portugal TMN LTE-8/26 Mar-12 Y Y Y Slovenia Si.mobil LTE-1800 Jul-12 Y N Y Russia Megafon LTE-2601 Aug-12 Y N N Luxembourg Tango Luxembourg LTE-1800 Oct-12 Y Y N
  • 19. But price premium is increasingly linked to higher speeds and larger allowances…and much more! 19 Traffic prioritisation is “sold” to the customer TIM Special Unlimited
  • 20. But price premium is increasingly linked to higher speeds and larger allowances…and much more! 20 Unlimited videos on YouTube
  • 21. 21 Services on the radar: what does future hold for LTE?
  • 22. 22 What does future hold for LTE? …on the radar Increasingly connected Cloud & Security, Insurance Emerging new segment Content Bundling OTT & Video monetization New business models
  • 23. What does future hold for LTE? …on the radar 23 LTE-Advanced & Carrier Aggregation RCS & Volte Unlicensed Spectrum Sub 1GHz 5GLTE-Broadcast
  • 24. Conclusions 24 LTE is indeed evolutionary rather than revolutionary…..but • LTE is delivering: is this the first time that our industry has under-promised and over-delivered? • Customer experience is extremely positive, usage uplift is real – will revenues follow? • Digital Services (bundling) will become the key differentiating point, beside speed and allowances
  • 25. Dario Talmesio Principal Analyst Informa Telecoms and Media dario.talmesio@informa.com Mob:+447949070318 Let’s keep in touch: https://www.linkedin.com/pub/dario-talmesio/0/950/2a

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