Session 3 system thinking
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Session 3 system thinking

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This is the lecture slides that I used for System Thinking.

This is the lecture slides that I used for System Thinking.

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Session 3 system thinking Session 3 system thinking Presentation Transcript

  •  Webster's definition: An assemblage of objects united as an organized whole  Our 'system thinking' definition: Relations among attributes of entities
  •  Looking up, they are parts of wholes  Looking down, they are wholes with parts
  •  Cause
Map  Shows
causal
relationship
among
factors
that
 affect
the
outcome
of
a
system
  • Everyday thinking sees linear causal relations. System thinking looks for circular causal relations.
  • Factor 1 Factor 4 + + + Negative feedback cycle Factor 2 + Factor Factor — + 5 3 Positive feedback cycle
  • Inflation Rate Growth Rate of Economy Minimum Number of Wage People on Welfare
  • Federal Interest Growth Rate Rate of Economy Number of People Number of Unemployed People on Welfare
  • Federal Growth Inflation Interest Rate of Rate Rate Economy Number of People on Number of Welfare People Minimum Unemployed Wage
  • You are on the Board of Directors of a major automobile manufacturer. The Senior VP of Marketing has just presented a “brilliant” plan to increase sales. Car rental fleets that currently replace their automobiles every 10 to 12 months will be induced (through appropriate discounts) to speed up their purchases and replace their automobiles every 5 to 6 months. Everyone thinks this is a wonderful idea, but does it still look good after a cause map analysis?
  •  Boundary  Relation  Level
  •  Study
of
communication
and
control  "Communication
is
control
in
the
animal
and
the
 machine."
(Norbert
Wiener
1948)  Cybernetics
means
'steersman'
and
indicates
that
a
 system
is
guided
by
results  Communication
of
actual
conditions
and
results
of
 previous
actions
are
fed
back
into
the
system
to
control
 subsequent
actions.
  •  Always
begin
by
defining
the
output.  Start
your
analysis
by
questioning
the
boundary.  Look
both
ways:
up
and
down.  Expect
side‐effects
‐‐
loops,
delays
and
lagged
 impacts;

look
for
them,
it
they
are
not
evident.  Know
what
kind
of
complexity
(detail
or
 dynamic)
you
are
dealing
with  Identify
feedback
and
feed
forward
controls.

 How
does
the
system
learn?  Worry
about
using
just
one
view
of
a
system.
  •  Who
is
the
client?  What
is
the
environment?  What
are
the
components?  Who
is
the
management?  What
is
the
measure
of
performance?
  •  When you are busy earning money you have no time to spend it  Picking the low-hanging fruit  Software is so far behind hardware that hardware producers push to make ever faster cheaper computers that will make software further behind
  •  Quick fix rather than long term solution that addresses the key problem  Crisis management rather than fundamental process redesign--people create crises to be heroic  Outsider fixes problem, but insiders become dependent on him/her and never learn to solve problems themselves
  •  Individuals benefit until everyone loses  New highways leading to new traffic jams  Every fax is urgent
  •  Unintended long-term consequences worsen the performance or condition that is fixed in the short term  Borrowing money to pay debts  Downsizing to improve profits  Expediting customer orders
  •  People who want to work together end up bitterly opposed  Producers’ price promotions at odds with retailers’ stocking strategies  GPS with built in traffic information bring all the drivers in the same area