OpenEducation 2030 keynote at EADTU Paris


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Preliminary results from IPTS foresight on Imagining Open Education 20130

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OpenEducation 2030 keynote at EADTU Paris

  1. 1. Imagining Open Education 2030: Towards a new ecosystem for Higher Education? EADTU Keynote, "The Open and Flexible Higher Education Conference 2013", Paris, 23-24 October 2013 Yves Punie Christine Redecker Riina Vuorikari Jonatan Castaño Muñoz
  2. 2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS): Research institute supporting EU policy-making on socio-economic, scientific and/or technological issues
  3. 3. ICT for Learning and Skills – Research on "educational transformation in a digital world", in support of (mainly) DG Education and Culture – Themes: – Mainstreaming and scaling-up ICT-enabled innovation for learning – Digital Competence for Education and Employability – Opening up Education, support and follow-up COM 2013 (654 final), 25 Sept 2013
  4. 4. Structure I. Introduction and context on "past and future" of HE and Opening Up Education II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE III. Results from IPTS foresight on Open Education 2030 IV. Final remarks
  5. 5. Thinking about the future… • Newborns of today will be 17 years old in 2030 • but will they "graduate" in 2035? • We expect the world to be somehow different by then…
  6. 6. Future of Learning (IPTS, 2011) Demography Immigration Globalisation Technology Labour Market Drivers Labour market trends & demands New skills New ways of learning Education & Training Initiative, resilience Responsibility Risk-taking, creativity Personal skills Team-, networking Empathy, compassion Co-constructing Social skills Managing, organising Meta-cognitive skills Failing forward Learning skills Personalisation Learnercentred Tailormade & targeted Active & constructive Motivating & engaging Collaboration Social learning Peer-learning Sharing & collaborating In communities Lifewide learning Anywhere, anytime Blending virtual & real Combining sources/providers Informalisation ICT Trends ? Augmented Reality Data mining 3D virtual worlds Social networks ? Learning analytics Games Mobiles ? ? e-books OER Electronic tutors ePortfolios LMS
  7. 7. « Educational change… now more than ever…? » 2012 Year of the MOOC • 2013 Year of the anti-MOOC…
  8. 8. Disruptive…. or sustaining innovation…? Bower & Christensen, 1995
  9. 9. MOOC hype cycle A very slow tsunami: projection of the Hype Cycle for MOOCs by Jonathan Tapson, University of Western Sydney
  10. 10. History of Open Education Alternative & Progressive education Open Education/ classrooms Distance Universities Open Schools 1st EU MOOC platform Open Universities (OUUK, OUNL, UOC… OU 1st cMOOC (2008) Computer Assisted Instruction (1970) Digital learning resources Free Software /GNU 19th century 1960's–1970's open content (1998) MIT OCW (2001) 1st Stanford xMOOC (2011) Certification OERu MOOCs OER Def. (UNESCO 2002) Open OpenLearn badges (OUUK) Creative Commons Increasing number of Open (2002) Access papers & journals Budapest Open UK Finch report Access Initiative 1985 1990-2000 2001-2002 2006-2011 2012 2013 OER OA
  11. 11. A global shift towards "openness"
  12. 12. The range of "Opens"
  13. 13. Carlota Perez, Tomorrow's Capitalism: GROWTH AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, Presentation at the Institute for Public Policy Research, June 2009
  14. 14. The forces of disruption vs. sustaining are at play; High "potential" for disrupting HE… Change "will" occur… See also: Yuan & Powell, eLearning Papers, 33, May 2013
  15. 15. II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE
  16. 16. OECD CERI (2006): 4 scenarios for HE to 2030 Open Networking… Among institutions, scholars, students, industry; internationally - Voluntary cooperation but with hierarchy and prestige Student autonomy – modular choices within the network (curricula and degree) Serving Local Communities… High # of local institutes vs. small # of elite HE institutions that are globally linked Public funding, local funding; Focus on teaching and research serving local needs New Public Responsibility… Publicly funded, autonomous system with high accountability Tuition fees; High competition for public research funds & specialisation in teaching and research Higher Education Inc… Global competition, focus on core business (teaching vs research) and fierce competition for best students and top academics
  17. 17. The future of English Higher Education: Two scenarios on the changing landscape, Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, May 2012 The return of the binary divide in 2025… A few top league research (25) globally networked vs a higher number (70) and more diverse group of teaching/research universities; High access fees The grand design of the visible hand… Public sector takes over control with a three tier system: - super-six research incentive universities - a larger # of full and comprehensive Grand Universities - a significant # of private for profit institutes.
  18. 18. Imagining the future of HE in 2022, B. Alexander, Educause Review, Dec 2011 Learning at a distance… Online learning at scale and sporadic local f2f contacts The serpent digest a large mammal… Little change, but fully encompassing the digital world Campus Weirding… Fully open, distributed and decentralised model with high # of MOOCs 2016 Scenario guide to effective tertiary education in New Zealand, Sept 2012, Ako Aotearoa, National Centre for Tertiary Teaching Excellence
  19. 19. IPTS foresight "Imagining Open Education 2030 and the potential of OER" • A series of 3 sector workshops: Lifelong Learning (29-30/04), School Education (28-29/05) and Higher Education (6-7/06) involving circa 50 experts • Call for vision papers: 97 submissions! (49 HE, 31 SE & 17 LLL) • Aim was NOT to predict but to develop shared visions and imagine different possible futures as a tool for strategic decision making, based on identifying, understanding and awareness raising around on key challenges, opportunities and possible threats. • 2030 is set to force us to think out of the box and go beyond 2020…
  20. 20. Workshop Methodology Open Education 2030 Step 1: Identifying the critical issues Scenario A High Y Scenario B +/+ -/+ Low X High X -/- +/- Scenario D Scenario C Step 2: Identifying the (two) key tensions Step 3: Describing the emerging scenarios Low Y Step 4: Milestones & Roadmap
  21. 21. Key tensions Open Education 2030 Guided discovery Self-guided discovery Learning context Guided journey Learning Guided goals Learner initiated Self-guided journey Externally set Self-guided
  22. 22. Learning conditions Open Education 2030 More open, flexible, fluid but all at the same time…?
  23. 23. Scenario differences Closed Open Education 2030 Learner initiated Where When How How What Learning context Where When How What Learning Guided What goals Where When Self-guided Where When How Externally set What
  24. 24. Consequences for HE institutions Unbundling E.g R. McGreal,; Barber et all 2013 Research Certification Assessment Certification Assessment 2030 Guidance Guidance 2013 Selection Content Selection Research Content
  25. 25. Scenario differences Open Education 2030 goals Learner initiated Learning context Learning Guided Externally set Self-guided
  26. 26. Guided journey Key role for institutions: • Guidance • Selection • Quality assurance When Learning context Learning goals Guided Provide Learning Spaces Where (physical, online, local, global) (closed) and a strong sense of community Externally set Anytime but scheduled (= guidance) - Meet externally set learning What goals / curricula (closed) - Content quality assurance How Focus on teaching (e.g. MOOCs) and/or assessment and/or certification
  27. 27. Guided discovery Learning goals Learner initiated Guided - Provide Learning Spaces (physical, online, local, global) Where and a loose sense of community (closed) - Networks for research and innovation When Anytime Learning context Key role for institutions: • Lifelong Learning guidance • Meet diverse learner needs • Foster excellence • Knowledge and research What - Inquiry-based subjects - Post-graduate level subjects - Research and Innovation skills How - Inquiry-based, exploratory - citizen science - E.g SPOCS & TORQUE
  28. 28. Self-guided journey Where Anywhere When Anytime Key role for institutions: • Quality content creation and verification • Credit transfer • External assessment - Meet externally set learning What goals / curricula (closed) - Content quality assurance Learning goals How Pick & Choose: - High-quality, instructionally designed learning materials from anywhere - Certification of prior learning - "Skills Portfolio" Learning context Externally set Selfguided
  29. 29. Self-guided discovery - Anywhere Where - Pre-requisite: Abundance! - Informal learning networks When Anytime What - Personal goals - Creation of new knowledge - OER; open data, MOOCs, SPOCS, TORQUE, any type of How learning - Citizen science - hyper-connected Learning goals Learner initiated Learning context Selfguided Key role for institutions: • Content production (diversity) • Learning platforms • Research & Innovation
  30. 30. IV. Final remarks (1/2) Open Education 2030 OE 2030 scenarios are not mutually exclusive! • Preference for a scenario depends on ability, competences, needs and interest of both individuals and society • "Self-guided discovery" scenario (most open) is NOT always the ideal • Fluidity allows for moving between the learning scenarios • OE 2030 still requires guidance and certain restrictions [Draft – Work in progress – more final version end 2013] [Paper: "OE 20130: Planning the future of Adult Learning in Europe", Open Learning: The Journal of Open, Distance and e-Learning]
  31. 31. Adult Learning scenarios Open Education 2030 Guided discovery Learning café Open discovery Learning for Life Learning setting Protected journey Open training Content Guided & Curricula Learner initiated Self-directed journey My learning certified Externally set Self-guided
  32. 32. Final remarks (2/2) Open Education 2030 For educational institutions:  At the core of OE 2030 are unbundling, abundance, networking, flexibility and personalised learning  Learning services will not necessary be for free, under an open license and accessible to all  HE institutions will not disappear but need to "redefine" their role in OE landscape – existing funding and quality mechanisms not sustainable Policies: • need to cater for # more versions of opening and closing • Knowledge and education as a "public good" • EC policy response: "Opening up Education" COM 2013 (654 final), 25 Sept 2013 featuring 23 Actions
  33. 33. Thank you for your attention!