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Chap010
 

Chap010

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    Chap010 Chap010 Presentation Transcript

    • Return and Risk The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
    • Chapter Outline
      • 10.1 Individual Securities
      • 10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance
      • 10.3 The Return and Risk for Portfolios
      • 10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets
      • 10.5 The Efficient Set for Many Assets
      • 10.6 Diversification: An Example
      • 10.7 Riskless Borrowing and Lending
      • 10.8 Market Equilibrium
      • 10.9 Relationship between Risk and Expected Return (CAPM)
      • An individual who holds one security should use expected return as the measure of the security’s return . Standard deviation or variance is the proper measure of the security’s risk .
      • An individual who holds a diversified portfolio cares about the contribution of each security to the expected return and the risk of the portfolio .
    • 10.1 Individual Securities
      • The characteristics of individual securities that are of interest are the:
        • Expected Return
        • Variance and Standard Deviation
        • Covariance and Correlation (to another security or index)
    • 10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance
      • Expected Return
      • Variance (Standard Deviation): the variability of individual stocks.
      • Variance
      • σ A 2 = Expected value of (R A -R A ) 2
      • Standard Deviation = σ A
      • Covariance and Correlation : the relationship between the return on one stock and the return on another.
        • σ AB = Cov (R A , R B ) =Expected value of 【 (R A -R A )*(R B -R B ) 】
        • ρ AB = Corr(R A , R B ) = σ AB / (σ A * σ B )
    • 10.3 The Return and Risk for Portfolios
      • How does an investor choose the best combination or portfolio of securities to hold?
      • An investor would like a portfolio with a high expected return and low standard deviation of return.
    • The Expected Return on a Portfolio
      • It is simply a weighted average of the expected returns on the individual securities.
      • Expected return on portfolio = X A R A + X B R B
    • The Variance of the Portfolio
      • Var (portfolio)
      • = X A 2 σ A 2 + 2X A X B σ AB + X B 2 σ B 2
      • The variance of a portfolio depends on both the variances of the individual securities and the covariance between the two securities.
    • Diversification Effect
      • As long as ρ<1 , the standard deviation of a portfolio of two securities is less than the weighted average of the standard deviations of the individual securities .
    • An Extension to Many Assets
      • The diversification effect applies to a portfolio of many assets .
    • 10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets
      • There are a few important points concerning Figure 10.3 :
        • The diversification effect occurs whenever the correlation between the two securities is below 1 .
        • The point MV represents the minimum variance portfolio .
        • An individual contemplating an investment in a portfolio faces an opportunity set or feasible set .
    • 10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets
        • The curve is backward bending between the Slowpoke point and MV .
        • The curve from MV to Supertech is called the efficient set .
    • 10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets
      • Figure 10.4 shows that the diversification effect rises as ρ declines.
      • Efficient sets can be calculated in the real world.
      • In Figure 10.5 , the backward bending curve is important information. Some subjectivity must be used when forecasting future expected returns.
    • 10.5 The Efficient Set for Many Securities
      • Consider a world with many risky assets; we can still identify the opportunity set of risk-return combinations of various portfolios.
      return  P Individual Assets
    • The Efficient Set for Many Securities
      • The section of the opportunity set above the minimum variance portfolio is the efficient frontier or fficient set .
      return  P minimum variance portfolio efficient frontier Individual Assets
    • 10.6 Diversification: An Example
      • Suppose that we make the following three assumptions:
        • All securities posses the same variance.
        • All covariances in table 10.4 are the same.
        • All securities are equally weighted in the portfolio .
      • The variances of the individual securities are diversified away , but the covariance terms cannot be diversified away .
      • There is a cost to diversification, so we need to compare the costs and benefits of diversification.
    • Total Risk
      • Total risk = systematic risk (portfolio risk) + unsystematic risk
      • The standard deviation of returns is a measure of total risk .
      • For well-diversified portfolios, unsystematic risk is very small .
      • Consequently, the total risk for a diversified portfolio is essentially equivalent to the systematic risk .
    • Systematic Risk
      • Risk factors that affect a large number of assets
      • Also known as non-diversifiable risk or market risk
      • Includes such things as changes in GDP , inflation , interest rates , etc.
    • Unsystematic (Diversifiable) Risk
      • Risk factors that affect a limited number of assets
      • Also known as unique risk and asset-specific risk
      • Includes such things as labor strikes , part shortages , etc.
      • The risk that can be eliminated by combining assets into a portfolio
    • 10.7 Riskless Borrowing and Lending
      • A risky investment and a riskless or risk-free security.
      • The Optimal Portfolio
        • Capital Market Line(CML )
        • Separation Principle : The investor makes two separate decisions:
          • Calculates the efficient set of risky assets , represented by curve XAY in F.10.9. He then determines point A , which represents the portfolio of risky assets that the investors will hold.
          • Determines how he will combine point A , his portfolio of risky assets, with the riskless asset . His choice here is determined by his internal characteristics , such as his ability to tolerate risk.
    • 10.8 Market Equilibrium
    • Definition of the Market-Equilibrium Portfolio
      • In a world with homogeneous expectations , all investors would hold the portfolio of risky assets represented by point A . It is the market portfolio .
      • A broad-based index is a good proxy for the highly diversified portfolios of many investors.
      • The best measure of the risk of a security in a large portfolio is the beta of the security.
    • The Formula for Beta
    • Definition of Risk When Investors hold the Market Portfolio
      • Beta measures the responsiveness of a security to movements in the market portfolio.
      • F.10.10 tells us that the return on Jelco are magnified 1.5 times over those of the market.
      • While very few investors hold the market portfolio exactly, many hold reasonably diversified portfolios . These portfolios are close enough to the market portfolio so that the beta of a security is likely to be a reasonable measure of its risk .
    • 10.9 Relationship between Risk and Expected Return (CAPM)
      • Expected Return on the Market :
      • Expected return on an individual security :
      Market Risk Premium This applies to individual securities held within well-diversified portfolios.
    • Expected Return on a Security
      • This formula is called the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):
      • Assume  i = 0, then the expected return is R F .
      • Assume  i = 1, then
      Expected return on a security = Risk-free rate + Beta of the security × Market risk premium
    • Expected Return on Individual Security (1/2)
      • Capital-Asset-Pricing Model( CAPM ) :
        • R = R F + β * (R M - R F ) (10.17)
        • Linearity : In equilibrium, all securities would be held only when prices changed so that the SML became straight.
        • Portfolios as well as securities .
          • The beta of the portfolio is simply a weighted average of the securities in the portfolio.
    • Expected Return on Individual Security (2/2)
        • F.10.11 differs from F.10.9 in at least two ways:
          • Beta appears in the horizontal axis of F.10.11, but standard deviation appears in the horizontal axis of F.10.9.
          • The SML (F.10.11) holds for all individual securities and for all possible portfolios , whereas CML (F.10.9) holds only for efficient portfolios .
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    • 2 6 25
    • CML Var(R P ) = σ p 2 = a 2 σ m 2 σ p = a*σ m a = σ p / σ m ( 代入 E(R P ) 中 ) E(R P ) = (1-a) R f + a*E(R m ) , a>0 E(R P ) = R f + ( σ p / σ m )*[E(R m )-R f ] = R f + { [E(R m )-R f ] / σ m } * σ p riskless asset market portfolio
    •  
      • Var (portfolio)
      • = X A 2 σ A 2 + 2X A X B σ AB + X B 2 σ B 2
      • =X A 2 σ A 2 + 2X A X B ρ AB σ A * σ B + X B 2 σ B 2
      • (ρ AB = σ AB / σ A * σ B )
      • =X A 2 σ A 2 + 2X A X B σ A * σ B + X B 2 σ B 2
      • (when ρ AB =1 )
      • = (X A σ A + X B σ B ) 2
      • Standard Deviation = (X A σ A + X B σ B )
      11 10
    • CML Var(R P ) = σ p 2 = a 2 σ m 2 σ p = a*σ m a = σ p / σ m ( 代入 E(R P ) 中 ) E(R P ) = (1-a) R f + a*E(R m ) , a>0 E(R P ) = R f + ( σ p / σ m )*[E(R m )-R f ] = R f + { [E(R m )-R f ] / σ m } * σ p riskless asset market portfolio
    • β p = = = = + = + = W 1 β 1 + W 2 β 2 σ pm σ m 2 E{ [W 1 R 1 +W 2 R 2 –W 1 E(R 1 )–W 2 E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )]} σ m 2 E{ [W 1 (R 1 –E(R 1 ) +W 2 (R 2 –E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )]} σ m 2 E [W 1 (R 1 –E(R 1 )]*[R m –E(R m )] σ m 2 E [W 2 (R 2 –E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )] σ m 2 σ m 2 W 1 σ 1m σ m 2 W 2 σ 2m
    • E(R A ) = 15.0% E(R Z ) = 8.6% E(R P ) = 0.5 *15.0% + 0.5 *8.6% = 11.8% Beta of Portfolio: = 0.5 *1.5 + 0.5 *0.7 = 1.1 Under the CAPM, the E(R P ) is E(R P ) = 3% + 1.1 *8.0% = 11.8%
    • σ p 2 = E [R P –E(R P )] 2 = E [(W 1 R 1 +W 2 R 2 ) – (W 1 E(R 1 ) + W 2 E(R 2 ))] 2 = E [(W 1 (R 1 – E(R 1 )) + W 2 (R 2 – E(R 2 )] 2 = = W 1 2 σ 1 2 + W 2 2 σ 2 2 + 2W 1 W 2 E [(R 1 – E(R 1 ))*(R 2 – E(R 2 )] W 1 2 σ 1 2 + W 2 2 σ 2 2 + 2W 1 W 2 σ 1 2 = W 1 2 σ 1 2 W 2 2 σ 2 2 W 1 W 2 σ 1 2 W 2 W 1 σ 21 設 Portfolio 中只有兩種資產 Σ W i 2 σ i 2 + Σ Σ W i W j σ ij i=1 2 i=1 2 j=1 2 i≠j
    • σ p 2 = = + + = + = = (when N->∞) (10.10) Σ X i 2 σ i 2 + Σ Σ X i X j σ ij i=1 N i=1 N j=1 i≠j N N N 2 1 Var N(N – 1) N 2 1 COV N 1 Var N(N – 1) N 2 COV N 1 Var COV (N – 1) N COV
    • Portfolio Risk and Number of Stocks Nondiversifiable risk; Systematic Risk; Market Risk Diversifiable Risk; Nonsystematic Risk; Firm Specific Risk; Unique Risk n  In a large portfolio the variance terms are effectively diversified away, but the covariance terms are not. Portfolio risk