<ul><li>THE ASIAN ASCENT </li></ul><ul><li>POWER TRANSITION EXTENSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Jacek Kugler </li></ul><ul><li>Sc...
BACKGROUND TO POWER TRANSITION   Organski A.F..K.  and Jacek Kugler (1980)  The War Ledger . Kugler, Jacek and Douglas Lem...
  Figure 1.3. Hierarchy and Distribution of Satisfaction
  Regional Hierarchies in World Politics USA Lebanon China Korea Taiwan Israel Syria Palestine Global Hierarchy Regional H...
<ul><li>Dynamic general equilibrium endogenous growth model  </li></ul><ul><li>(Feng, Kugler and Zak:  Journal of Economic...
<ul><li>Labor force growth </li></ul><ul><li>Births </li></ul><ul><li>Income growth per worker </li></ul><ul><li>Human cap...
FORMALIZING   POWER TRANSTION CC = RP- S (RP3) + Hs + Hg where  CC  = conflict-cooperation  RP  = relative power  H  = pow...
DISTRIBUTION  OF POWER COMPONENTS  2000  AND 2050 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF GDP 2050 Brazil Russia India China France Germ...
DYNAMIC POWER DISTRIBUTIONS
DYNAMIC POWER DISTRIBUTIONS
Number of American Voters Right Left R1 R2 R3 D1 D2 D3 Democratic Primary Republican Primary General Election Center D R P...
Relative  Power  and Productivity G6-BRIC  2000-2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relati...
Relative   GDP and Productivity   Brazil-Russia-India-China   2000-2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20...
Relative   GDP and Productivity USA-China-India 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Po...
Global Inequality 2000-2050
EMPRICAL RESULTS From: Efrid et.al. 2003
<ul><li>GLOBAL HIRARCHY </li></ul>
RELATIVE  POWER  AND PRODUCTIVITY G6-BRIC  2000-2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relati...
 
RELATIVE GNP AND PRODUCTIVITY USA-China 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power USA ...
SATISFIED DYAD Year War Integration Conflict Cooperation Neutrality Satisfaction Dissatisfied Satisfied   US - China, 1996...
Year War Integration Conflict Cooperation Neutrality Satisfaction Dissatisfied Satisfied DISSAISFIED TRIAD US-China-Taiwan...
RELATIVE GNP AND PRODUCTIVITY China-India 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power Ch...
Similarity of Interests Dissimilar Similar War Integration Increasing Severity of Conflict Increasing Intensity of Coopera...
Middle East Region
Source: Birol Yesilada and Brian Efrid (2006)
GDP Share and GDP Per Capita  Iran, Russia and Turkey: 2000 - 2050 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 1990 ...
Similarity of Interests Dissimilar Similar War Integration Increasing Severity of Conflict Increasing Intensity of Coopera...
GDP Shares and GDP Per Capita  EU29 and Iran: 2000 - 2050
GDP Shares and GDP per Capita  Iran and Israel: 2000-2050
From Mike Harter’s MA Thesis (2006)
Implications
 
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Kugleer1

  1. 1. <ul><li>THE ASIAN ASCENT </li></ul><ul><li>POWER TRANSITION EXTENSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Jacek Kugler </li></ul><ul><li>School for Politics and Economics </li></ul><ul><li>Claremont Graduate School </li></ul>
  2. 2. BACKGROUND TO POWER TRANSITION Organski A.F..K. and Jacek Kugler (1980) The War Ledger . Kugler, Jacek and Douglas Lemke, Eds. (1996) Parity and War . Tammen, Ronald, Jacek Kugler et al. (2000) Power Transitions Lemke, Douglas (2002). Regions of War and Peace , Efird, Brian, Gaspare Genna, and Jacek Kugler. (2003) From War to Integration: Generalizing the Dynamic of Power Transitions. International Interactions 29(4). Feng, Yi. (2003). Democracy, Governance, and Economic Performance: Theory Kugler, Jacek, and Ronald L. Tammen. (2004) Regional Challenge: China’s Rise to Power. In Jim Rolfe, ed. The Asia - Pacific: A Region in Transition National Intelligence Council. (2004) Mapping the Global Future . , D.C: GPO. Ronald Tammen and Jacek Kugler (2005) “Strategic Equation”. China, . Organski A.F..K. World Politics (1958,1968) Kim, Woosang. (1996) Power Parity, Dissatisfaction and War in East Asia 1860-1993. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46: 654-671
  3. 3.   Figure 1.3. Hierarchy and Distribution of Satisfaction
  4. 4.   Regional Hierarchies in World Politics USA Lebanon China Korea Taiwan Israel Syria Palestine Global Hierarchy Regional Hierarchies
  5. 5. <ul><li>Dynamic general equilibrium endogenous growth model </li></ul><ul><li>(Feng, Kugler and Zak: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2002; International Studies Quarterly, 2000 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Endogenizes the determination of: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Income </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Human capital </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Instability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>POFED shows that these depend on political variables amenable to policy intervention. </li></ul>POLITICS OF FERTILITY & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (POFED MODEL)
  6. 6. <ul><li>Labor force growth </li></ul><ul><li>Births </li></ul><ul><li>Income growth per worker </li></ul><ul><li>Human capital growth </li></ul><ul><li>Political stability growth </li></ul><ul><li>Political capacity growth </li></ul>POFED EQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS N labor force, b births per woman, y per worker income, S political stability,  political capacity, h human capital, p policy , i Investment.
  7. 7. FORMALIZING POWER TRANSTION CC = RP- S (RP3) + Hs + Hg where CC = conflict-cooperation RP = relative power H = power concentration in the hierarchy S = satisfaction with the status quo.
  8. 8. DISTRIBUTION OF POWER COMPONENTS 2000 AND 2050 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF GDP 2050 Brazil Russia India China France Germany Italy UK US Japan DISTRIBUTION OF GDP 2000 Brazil Russia China France Germany Italy UK US Japan India POPULATION 2000 Brazil Russia India China France Germany Italy UK US Japan ESTIMATED POPULATION 2050 Brazil Russia India China Italy UK US Japan Germany France
  9. 9. DYNAMIC POWER DISTRIBUTIONS
  10. 10. DYNAMIC POWER DISTRIBUTIONS
  11. 11. Number of American Voters Right Left R1 R2 R3 D1 D2 D3 Democratic Primary Republican Primary General Election Center D R Primaries “Mobilizing the Extremes” General Election “The Race to the Center” Contested at Parity Political Orientation Parity: Median & Confrontation
  12. 12. Relative Power and Productivity G6-BRIC 2000-2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power G6 BRIC
  13. 13. Relative GDP and Productivity Brazil-Russia-India-China 2000-2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power China Brazil India Russia
  14. 14. Relative GDP and Productivity USA-China-India 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power USA China India
  15. 15. Global Inequality 2000-2050
  16. 16. EMPRICAL RESULTS From: Efrid et.al. 2003
  17. 17. <ul><li>GLOBAL HIRARCHY </li></ul>
  18. 18. RELATIVE POWER AND PRODUCTIVITY G6-BRIC 2000-2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power G6 BRIC
  19. 20. RELATIVE GNP AND PRODUCTIVITY USA-China 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power USA China
  20. 21. SATISFIED DYAD Year War Integration Conflict Cooperation Neutrality Satisfaction Dissatisfied Satisfied US - China, 1996 - 2050 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046
  21. 22. Year War Integration Conflict Cooperation Neutrality Satisfaction Dissatisfied Satisfied DISSAISFIED TRIAD US-China-Taiwan Triad 1996-2050
  22. 23. RELATIVE GNP AND PRODUCTIVITY China-India 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Relative Power China India
  23. 24. Similarity of Interests Dissimilar Similar War Integration Increasing Severity of Conflict Increasing Intensity of Cooperation Neutrality Forecasting Conflict-Cooperation: India-China, 2000-2050
  24. 25. Middle East Region
  25. 26. Source: Birol Yesilada and Brian Efrid (2006)
  26. 27. GDP Share and GDP Per Capita Iran, Russia and Turkey: 2000 - 2050 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Power Share % IRAN TURKEY RUSSIA Source: Birol Yesilada and Brian Efrid (2006)
  27. 28. Similarity of Interests Dissimilar Similar War Integration Increasing Severity of Conflict Increasing Intensity of Cooperation Neutrality Forecasting Conflict-Cooperation: Iran-Turkey, 2000-2050
  28. 29. GDP Shares and GDP Per Capita EU29 and Iran: 2000 - 2050
  29. 30. GDP Shares and GDP per Capita Iran and Israel: 2000-2050
  30. 31. From Mike Harter’s MA Thesis (2006)
  31. 32. Implications

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