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Web20v54 - Presentation Transcript

  1. Web 2.0 Ed Yourdon and collaborators worldwide email: ed@yourdon.com Website: www.yourdon.com Blog: www.yourdonreport.com version 54 Slideshare.net version green stuff = “internal” links to other pages in this document blue stuff = “external” links -- i.e., URLs to pages on the Internet red stuff = changes since versions 52 & 53
  2. Publication Details, and General Disclaimer This “Web 2.0” presentation is an open-content collaborative document. Anyone with an Internet connection and World Wide Web browser may view and/or alter its content -- for better or worse. Please be advised that nothing in this document has necessarily been reviewed by Ed Yourdon (\"Ed\"); the theories and business practices expressed by the “Web 2.0” document are not necessarily his. This isn't to say you won't find valuable and accurate information herein; however, Ed cannot summarily guarantee the validity of this “Web 2.0” document. The content of any given page may recently have been changed, dumbed-down, or other wise edited by someone whose opinion does not correspond to Ed’s original “Web 2.0” material (or any subsequent drafts). Neither Ed, nor any of the contributors, collaborators, nor anyone else connected with this “Web 2.0” document, can in any way whatsoever be held responsible for the appearance of any inaccurate information, or for your use of the information contained in or linked from this document. You are being granted a limited license to copy anything from this document; it does not create or imply any contractual or extra-contractual liability on the part of Ed, nor any of the contributors, collaborators, or viewers of this material. There is no agreement or understanding bet ween you and Ed regarding your use or modification of this information beyond the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL); neither is Ed responsible should someone change, edit, modify, or remove any information that you may post on this “Web 2.0” document. Any of the trademarks, service marks, collective marks, design rights, personality rights, or similar rights that are mentioned, used, or cited in this “Web 2.0” document are the property of their respective owners. Their use here does not imply that you may use them for any purpose other than for the same or similar informational use -- as recognized under the GFDL licensing scheme. Unless other wise stated, Ed and this “Web 2.0” document are neither endorsed by nor affiliated with any of the holders of any such rights; as such, Ed cannot grant any rights to use any other wise protected materials. Your use of any such or similar incorporated property is at your own risk. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 2
  3. Conferences Books References Topics De f n i t i o n s i Websites/blogs Web 2.0: profound changes Articles In troduction Danger of over-hyping Conclusions Lessons from Web 1.0 Forecasting diff culties i Reputation economy General trends Architecture of creation vs. consumption Technical trends Trends Recurring themes Themes Business trends Mashups Related concepts Long Tail Cultural trends History People power Web 2.0 Wikis Ajax Generational trends Ruby on Rails Cultural Issues Long Tail impact API's Perpetual beta environment Technology Tools/IDE's Basic issues Other enabling technology Trends in large companies Design guidelines, best practices Busine ss issues Web 2.0 in government Big vendors Recommended strategies Products, vendors Social Net working Services Small vendors, startups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 3
  4. 1. Introduction Definitions: what is Web 2.0? Web 2.0: profound business, technological, and social changes Danger of over-hyping Lessons to learn from Web 1.0, to plan for Web 2.0 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 4
  5. Definitions Many people feel they don’t really understand what Web 2.0 is all about, and there are shortcomings in popular definitions My definition: web 2.0 is the combination of - • tools and technologies • business strategies (like blogging, external wikis, customer participation) • and social/cultural trends which drive the individual creation and sharing of content on the Internet Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 5
  6. Other definitions O’Reilly definitions Michael Wesch: “the machine is (us)ing us” • viewed 5.6 million times as of Jun 08, 2008 • See Wesch’s explanation of how he made the video • See John Battelle’s interview with Michael Wesch • See also Michael Wesch’s “Vision of Students Today” • See also Michael Wesch’s YouTube video, “R/evolution,” about the transformation of paper information into digital information YouTube video based on Wikipedia article A sarcastic spoof: Supermarket 2.0 Pew Report definition 24-minute video documentary definition Differences bet ween Web 1.0 and 2.0(more) Main business Web 2.0 tools (more) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 6
  7. O’Reilly definitions Compact definition Long definition New (Oct 2007) definition: “intelligence in the back end” Hierarchy of Web 2.0-ness Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 7
  8. Main Web 2.0 tools Blogs Wikis Podcasts RSS Collaborative content tagging Social net working (see IBM’s activities in this area!) Mashups and a related concept: “long tail” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 8
  9. Intro: Business Changes Empowering employees • Let them blog - internally & externally • Let them collaborate with wikis Encouraging external collaboration with wikis Long Tail phenomenon Product vs. Ser vice (MS Office vs. Google Docs; Web-based calendars, etc.) Publishing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 9
  10. Business change: publishing Craigslist vs. classified ads (note: 30% owned by eBay) Blogs vs. newspapers Book mashups Communal authorship: my JESA wiki Communal advertisement/commercials Communal product reviews (Amazon) The impact of Kindle: see Steven Levy’s Nov 17, 2007 Newsweek article, “The Future of Reading” • See my review of Kindle here, here, and here • See also my summary of six other Kindle reviews Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 10
  11. Intro: Technology Changes Ajax, Ruby on Rails, and more... Web as the platform API’s facilitating mashups Perpetual beta Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 11
  12. Web as the Platform Examples of Web as platform Benefits of Web as platform Risks of Web as platform Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 12
  13. Examples of web as platform Google Apps 30 Boxes (calendar) SmartSheet: project management Zoho Spreadsheet Zoho DB database LiveDocuments (see commentary by Nicholas Carr) Virtual Ubiquity’s Buzzword (acquired by Adobe on 9/30/2007) and more every day... but still at “early adopter” stage -- e.g., 1.5 million copies of PC-based “Quickbooks” from Intuit, but only 125,000 copies of online version (from 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference) However, Intuit has 10 million TurboTax customers, and 50% use the Web-based version (also from 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conf) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 13
  14. Benefits of web platform Easier to support increasingly common distributed workforce (which needs collaboration capability) Simpler install/infrastructure for small startup companies (6 million new businesses each year in U.S., who have no existing PC/net work infrastructure when they start) Fast installation allows business managers to ignore/ circumvent IT department (just like PC’s in 1980s!) UI often more appealing to new generation of users (e.g., college students who have never seen MS Outlook) Free (or sometimes $50/year) “Try before you buy” Updates, new versions available immediately Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 14
  15. Risks of web platform Security (lower priority for new, small startup companies) Privacy Compliance with other standards, etc. Connectivity: can it be used offline? Stability of small vendors Performance/features (for power users) • Features of Google Apps/Docs are far less than Microsoft Office -- but Web-based products are usually supporting a new class of “first-time” users, who are doing things they simply couldn’t do before (e.g., 15 million of the 19 million small businesses in U.S. still use pencil and paper to do their accounting and book-keeping) • Compare Keynote/PDF version of this presentation with the Google Apps version (in fact, it was so bad that I recently deleted the Google Apps version!). Is data “trapped”? Can it be moved to a different platform? • Sometimes a major problem with desktop-based PC products, too • Vendors like Google say they’re aware of the issue, and support the “philosophy” that users should be able to take their data (e.g., Google search history, Facebook “social graph”) with them if they leave Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 15
  16. Intro: social changes The public: wired (73%), but not Web 2.0 (8%) (based on a Feb-Apr 2006 sur vey, which did not include teenagers) Blogs Trust in Wikipedia Emphasis on communities “People power” Political commentary Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 16
  17. Technology usage in U.S. Note: this is from the 2006 survey cited on previous page Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 17
  18. Social change: blogs Latest count (Dec 2007): 112.8 million blogs, 120K new blogs every day Pew sur vey of bloggers What’s next? “Beyond Blogs” (from Business Week) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 18
  19. Microblogging with Twitter Twitter simply asks, “What are you doing now?” Started by Evan Williams, who noticed 200 people emerging from a lecture at Stanford, all picking up their cell phones to ask their friends, “What are you doing now?” • Twitter messages are known as “t weets” • A Twitter user says: “IM is real-time, person-to-person communication, while Twitter is ‘baby email’ with everyone where you get to pick whose messages to read.” • See “Twitter in Plain English” for YouTube explanation of how it works. • Slide show on the difference bet ween IM, email, blogging, and Twitter. LA Fire Department started a Twitter feed during Oct 2007 California wildfires; still active in Dec 2007 for other citizen-reported events. • Case study of a small business using Twitter. • St. Louis newspaper encourages subscribers to Twitter about real-time traffic impact of a repair-shutdown of one of its busy highways. • See David Weinberger’s characterization as “continuous partial friendship” • See characterization as “ ambient intimacy” in Nov 4, 2007 New York Times article entitled “The Global Sympathetic Audience.” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 19
  20. Social Change: Microblogging with Twitter Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 20
  21. Social Change: Microblogging with Twitter Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 21
  22. Social Change: Microblogging with Twitter Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 22
  23. TweetWheel: an intriguing Twitter UI Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 23
  24. Microblogging with Twitter See Guy Kawasaki’s “How Twitter Made My Website Better” See BT Group CIO JP Rangaswami’s blogs here and here and here about use of Twitter in the enterprise. See also Luis Suarez’s blog on “The Twitter verse Debates” re business justification for using Twitter in the enterprise. Useful blog posting on “What is Twitter For? The Message is the Medium” Also, see “What is Twitter For?” from the same author. Interesting Dan Farber blog on statistics about Twitter followers See also “Twitter Tools, Tweaks, and Theories” for more discussion of practical applications of Twitter. See “GroupTweet” for interesting tool to support t wittering among a specific group of users. Twitter t-shirts now available from eatsleept weet.com TwitDir says: 1,811,515 Twitterers as of Jun 8, 2008 (see also this chart showing recent exponential Twitter growth). Obama and Clinton each had approx 30,000 Twitter followers, but Obama used it more effectively; see this “Business Week” article. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 24
  25. More about Twitter See Dan Farber’s April 28, 2008 blog posting, “What Twitter Brings to the Party”. See TweetCube, which allows file- sharing via Twitter, for files up to 10 megabytes (including PDF and MP3 files). Tweetjects and blog jects: objects that Tweet and blog. Examples: a t wittering house (see also this Wired article), and the t wittering London Tower Bridge. Tweetclouds -- so you can see which words you use most often when t wittering. Twitterphone - sending messages to Twitter via phone Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 25
  26. More about Twitter: Zappos Zappos is a shoe-selling company (just outside Las Vegas) that has grown from $US70 million/year to $US one billion/year during the past 5 years Har vard Business Publishing article on “Why Zappos Pays New Employees to Quit -- And You Should Too” Zappos Twitter page of 400+ employees is here. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 26
  27. Practical Twitter Applications from “Twitter Tools, Tweaks, and Theories” 1. TwitterStalking: figuring out when you can call/email a colleague without interrupting their day 2. Microblogging: short updates, expressed succinctly -- rather than long rambling blog posts that no one has time to read 3. Note to self: keeping track of one’s own stray thoughts. 4. Breaking news: Twitter “communities” can form instantly, as new (unexpected) events occur 5. Communication - as an alternative to IM/SMS, and especially as an alternative to phone/email 6. Link Sharing - instead of del.icio.us or ma.gnolia, which can be pretty cumbersome 7. GTD (Getting Things Done): organizing your work flow, to-do lists 8. Advice, Support, Polling, Questions: extremely quick feedback to questions, often within minutes. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 27
  28. Another microblogging example: Dopplr Deals with the “ships passing in the night” phenomenon Answers the simple question: “Where are you going? When will you be back?” Widely adopted by employees in several large multi-national companies, so their employees can coordinate their business trips See Brady Forest’s comment on Dopplr’s “Coincidence Feed” -- and the virtue of providing LESS information in a news feed. See Stowe Boyd’s Dopplr case study, presented at Web 2.0 Expo in Berlin, Nov 2007 Dopplr is integrated with Twitter, LinkedIn, Gmail, and Flickr in order to help create a larger net work of “fellow travelers” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 28
  29. Dopplr page, top view Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 29
  30. Dopplr page, trip detail Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 30
  31. Dopplr page, trip details Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 31
  32. More micro-blog examples bookmarking: del.icio.us bookmarking: ma.gnolia media-sharing: Flickr media-sharing: YouTube media-sharing: Slideshare.net Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 32
  33. YouTube: not just teenage entertainment Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 33
  34. Social change: trust in Wikipedia Campaigns Wikia Essjay controversy Wikipedia article on VA Tech massacre WikiScanner (more on Wikis, Wikipedia later) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 34
  35. Social change: emphasis on communities MySpaceNation Bigger than every country, except China, India, U.S., and Indonesia See my blog “A United Nations Seat for MySpace?” Joe Ford’s congressional campaign The Mom Net work Steve Ballmer’s comments on communities Oct 26, 2007 “Newsweek” article discusses Facebook as a mechanism for creating and energizing charitable organizations Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 35
  36. Social change: “people power” Time magazine’s 2006 “person of the year”: you Farecast.com Farecast review Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 36
  37. Social change: political commentary TechPresident blog A smorgasborg of YouTube political videos 2008: the Web 2.0 election? Web 2.0 “Wisdom of the Crowd” to probe 2008 Presidential contenders Web 2.0 impact on 2006 elections Obama “1984” mashup • 5.2 million downloads as of 5/28/2008, creator resigns • YouTube inter view with video creator Obama’s “Yes We Can” YouTube video • 8.0 million downloads as of Jun 08, 2008 Hilary Clinton on Second Life George Bush “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” mashup Saturday Nite Live’s spoof of George Bush on global warming Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 37
  38. Intro: danger of over-hyping “Old ideas are completely obsolete!” “This will revolutionize the world!” “Our Web 2.0 startup will make us rich!” • The sobering reality of the 80-20 rule VC’s desperate to invest in the next Google • Example: Microsoft’s Oct 2007 investment of $240 million in Facebook, creating a $15 billion valuation for the company and made its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, worth $3 billion Startup companies with “vision,” but no revenue model • New business reality: low startup costs, VC’s not as important as before • New exit strategy: no IPO, but get acquired by Google Web 2.0 Bullshit Generator Reality: people adapt to new things more slowly than innovators realize Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 38
  39. Learn Lessons from Web 1.0 to plan for Web 2.0 Business Plan Archive’s “Top Ten Lessons from the Dot-Com Meltdown” “The real learning happens at the intersection of an industry and a generation” Expect major shakeouts and consolidation Anticipate new competitors Don’t forget business fundamentals Beware over-hyping Five lessons from Financial Times Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 39
  40. 2. Basic themes of Web 2.0 Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0 Reputation economy Architecture of creation vs consumption Recurring themes Related concepts Mashups Long Tail Wikis Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 40
  41. Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0 Summary of differences Web 1.0: mostly static Web pages • In contrast to the Web 2.0 concept of letting user/viewers annotate and mark up those web pages • See fleck.com as an example Centralized/corporate publishers of content Single-site content Some “portals” But generally no API’s or mashups Inadequate technology Slow bandwidth No Ajax, full-page refresh Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 41
  42. Reputation economy User reviews (e.g., Amazon) Naymz’s “reputation community” • Ed’s Naymz inter view Tag clouds StumbleUpon • TechCrunch review of StumbleUpon Google’s New Orleans Controversy Wikipedia: covert alterations -> WikiScanner Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 42
  43. Tag Clouds Definition Flickr tag cloud Technorati tag cloud Del.icio.us tag cloud TagCloud.com Selecting RSS feeds by tag Critical article Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 43
  44. Architecture of creation vs. consumption PC + laser printer made everyone a “publisher” Now it’s blogs and wikis (state of the blogosphere) Reasons for “personal publishing” • Dreams of fame & riches • Desire to “connect” • Passion for subject matter • Ego • Reputation • Too much time on their hands (an ongoing trend!) Next step: “democratizing” innovation (aka “user- centered innovation”) (back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 44
  45. Recurring themes for Web 2.0 Themes from my Aug 2006 visit to Web 2.0 vendors in Silicon Valley (blog posting) Enterprise 2.0 Building Blocks: SLATES; (see also the article, “Enterprise 2.0: the dawn of emergent collaboration” from MIT Sloan Review) Empower individual customers, employees, citizens Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 45
  46. Mashups Definition: blending content from > one source Examples CIO Magazine article: Enterprise mashups are on the rise Web sites Tech Beat: Blogs on Mashups Programmable Web: list of mashups Wiki for Web Services and Open API’s Business model for mashups Tools Yahoo Pipes (most processing done on the ser ver) Google’s MyMaps Microsoft’s PopFly (most processing done on the client) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 46
  47. Mashup Examples Google Maps + CraigsList Housing Maps for Italy Google’s New York City interactive transit map YouTube.com Podbop mapsexoffenders.com Earth Sandwich Middle East news + blogs Ultimate Yahoo Pipes mashup list Yahoo Pipes Twitter link monitor (to get a stream of Twitter t weets that contain URLs) 275 Flickr Mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 47
  48. Long Tail Basic concept History Chris Anderson’s PopTech 2006 PPT slides Examples Advice & Recommendations Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 48
  49. Long Tail Concepts Selling more and more to fewer and fewer Pareto’s Principle (80-20) less relevant today Relationship to Web 2.0 • Shift from the monopoly of the “big hits” favors tiny publishers and creators of Web content • Encourages “niche” producers to collaborate with “ aggregators” like Amazon, iTunes, NetFlix, etc. • Sometimes a niche product can become an unexpected “blockbuster” through viral marketing, word of mouth video: “Day of the Long Tail” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 49
  50. Long Tail History Scarcity favors the 80-20 rule • Production • Inventory • Shelf-space • Distribution Bits on the Internet changes the rules • Production • Inventory • Shelf-space • Distribution • Search engines: without Google, there would be no Long Tail! Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 50
  51. Long Tail Examples Amazon (98% of 100,000) • Tim O’Reilly’s critique of Amazon long-tail stats iTunes (100% of 5 million) NetFlix (95% of 55,000 movies) Lego Soft ware development JotSpot Powerpoint presentation Part 2 of Powerpoint presentation General info on JotSpot (recently acquired by Google) Website design Death of blockbuster drugs Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 51
  52. Long Tail Advice Two imperatives • Make everything available • Help me find it Nine rules (summarized from longer discussion in Chapter 14 of “The Long Tail”) 1. Move inventory to the edge -- keep a virtual inventory, and transfer costs to your suppliers 2. Let customers do the work -- “crowdsourcing” to let customer reviews rank your books, write your product reviews, etc -- because “collectively, customers have virtually unlimited time and energy.” 3. One distribution method doesn’t fit all -- think niche 4. One product doesn’t fit all -- think niche 5. One price doesn’t fit all -- think niche 6. Share information -- which requires giving up control 7. Think “and” not “or” (Coke) 8. Trust the market to do your job -- a variation on #2 above 9. Understand the power of the free -- combine premium pricing and a free version of what you provide; rely on an advertising-supported model. (Example: how about free cars?) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 52
  53. Wikis Concepts History Examples Tools Benefits Risks Implications Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 53
  54. Wiki concepts Rapid iteration of documents, designs, reports, etc. Widespread collaboration -- either inside or outside an organizational boundary Relationship to Web 2.0? Relationship to Open Source development? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 54
  55. Wiki History Ward Cunningham’s work Pattern language work, using Hypercard WikiWikiWeb, 1995 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 55
  56. Examples List of largest wikis Wikipedia (more) Proctor & Gamble “Connect & Develop” (more) European pharma “dark blog” case study Eli Lilly “Innocentive” initiative (more) Social Text Source Forge (open source) My JESA “structured analysis” wiki Semi-private university wikis Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 56
  57. Har vard Business School case study Wikipedia 2-millionth English-language article published on 09/12/2007 The 1-percent rule: 2% of Wikipedia editors generate 60% of its content. Wikipedia says there are 5,682,446 Wikipedians; incredibly detailed statistics about demographics and growth of Wikipedians are available here (e.g., only 75,716 Wikipedians made 5 or more contributions in Sept 2007). According to Nov 2007 CACM article “What Motivates Wikipedians?”, the top motivators for Wikipedians are “fun” and “ideology” e.g., they strongly agree with “Writing/editing in Wikipedia is fun,” and “I think information should be free.” Lowest motivators were “social” (“People I’m close to want me to write/edit in Wikipedia”) and “career” (“I can make new contacts that might help my business or career.” Additional Wikipedia statistics are available here; for example, Wikipedia grew by more than 30 million words in July, 2006. Growth may be slowing; see this Oct 11, 2007TechCrunch article and this Wikipedia page One risk of Wikipedia: “truth by consensus” (aka “wikiality” WikiScanner Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 57
  58. Mary Meeker on Wikipedia from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 32 of presentation Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 58
  59. Proctor & Gamble 8,000 researchers 600 partners productivity up 60% 50% of innovations from outside R&D costs dropped from 4.8% of sales, down to 3.4% of sales Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 59
  60. Eli Lilly Innocentive 30 companies involved 140,000(!) scientists in 175 countries Rewards up to $100,000 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 60
  61. Wiki Tools See Wikimatrix to compare features of over 100 wiki tools Twiki (free) MediaWiki pbWiki Backboard (a mini-wiki tool) JotSpot (recently acquired by Google) • Ed’s report on JotSpot • JotSpot 2.0 Wikipatterns Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 61
  62. Wiki Benefits New workforce: “crowdsourcing” (“people power”) • Google crowdsourcing initiative with Google maps: “Think globally, mark locally” Some are happy with modest, part-time income • Google Answers: $2.50 payments Hobbyists often happy to work for free • Time magazine article: “Getting Rich on Those Who Work for Free” • Flickr, and other sources of artistic/IP contributions • “raw” resources: grid computing, SETI-at-home • Yahoo Answers: 10 million free answers Access “loyal” resources • Retirees • Alumni • Customers Generate new ideas, products more quickly Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 62
  63. Wiki Risks Security Privacy Censorship issues IP ownership Control Anarchy Credibility of information • The Essjay Controversy • David Weinberger’s assessment of Wikipedia credibility • Wikipedia competitor: Citizendium Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 63
  64. Wiki implications Consider inhouse wiki as a learning experience Visit/learn about other successful wiki initiatives Consider limited “external” collaboration wiki as a pilot project • Note: it doesn’t have to be a massive, high-risk project. Consider this example of an “emergent collaboration” project involving SAP, Oracle, and others in development of a Twitter-based tool called “eventtrack.” Remember: tools are just enablers; cultural issues are more important Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 64
  65. Web 2.0 History Pre-History • Initial rejection of Web 2.0 concepts • Amazon “long tail” in 1995 • eBay “long tail” in 1995 • WikiWikiWeb in 1995 • Yahoo (various Web 2.0 concepts) in 1996 • Google advertising (long tail), 2000 • Wikipedia in 2001 • iTunes (long tail) in 2001 • Early book with “Web 2.0” title, 2002 Development of enabling technologies Social/cultural influences • Clue Train Manifesto • User-generated content First Web 2.0 conference in 2004 “Buzz” began in 2005 65 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
  66. Web 2.0 Technology Ajax Ruby on Rails API’s Tools/IDE’s Other enabling technology Design guidelines, best practices Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 66
  67. Technology - Ajax Basic concept Architectural guidelines Examples Ajaxifying legacy apps Ajax-related web sites Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 67
  68. Ajax - basic concept Asynchronous Javascript & XML Standards-based presentation using XHTML and CSS Dynamic display and interaction using DOM Data interchange using XML and XSLR Ansynchronous data retrieval using XML HttpRequest or XMLHTTP (from Microsoft) Javascript binding everything together Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 68
  69. Ajax: architectural guidelines Small server-side events, no full-page refresh Asynchronous activity: users continue working after invoking a request “onAnything”: any user event can cause an asynchronous event Mario Finetti’s obser vation: this often requires a large cultural adjustment by programmers, who were previously told to avoid client-side processing, and do everything on the ser ver. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 69
  70. Ajax: examples Flickr Meebo Nowsy - an Ajax home page All of the Zoho products Timeline - Ajax widget for visualizing time-based events Google Maps Microsoft releases beta AJAX Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 70
  71. Ajaxifying legacy apps “Ajax spurs rebirth for desktop apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005 Writely -- now Google Docs Google spreadsheets -- now Google Docs Many other companies are now doing this, though it’s not always easy to provide a cost-benefit justification Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 71
  72. Ajax Web sites Ajax matters Ajaxian Ajax magazine Sites using Ajax Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 72
  73. Technology - Ruby on Rails Basic concepts Examples Websites Tools, etc. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 73
  74. Ruby on Rails: basic concepts Open-source web application framework written in Ruby Closely follows the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture originally developed for Smalltalk Strives for simplicity and allowing real-world applications to be developed in less code (and thus less effort/time) than other frameworks -- and with a minimum of configuration Ruby programming language allows for extensive metaprogramming, which Rails makes great use of Rails architecture strongly favors database use, and an RDBMS system is recommended for data storage Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 74
  75. Ruby on Rails: examples Twitter (this isn’t the main Twitter website) Rumors that Twitter may abandon Ruby; see also “Did Rails Sink Twitter?” Hungry Machine - develops Ruby apps for Facebook Companies A-M Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 75
  76. Ruby on Rails: Websites RubyOnRails.org Wiki site SourceForge AjaxOnRails Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 76
  77. Technology - API’s Google • Google Maps API • Google AJAX search API Yahoo • Yahoo search API AOL • AIM API’s Dapper’s API ser vice (Israeli-based, partnering with Microsoft) Twitter API Facebook API OpenSocial API for social net works • Google’s announcement (remember: they lost to Microsoft in the bid to invest in Facebook in Oct 2007) • Nicholas Carr’s comments on OpenSocial • Dan Dodge: “50 million Facebook users don’t care about OpenSocial” • Perspective from Nicole Ferraro (editor at large at “Internet Evolution”) • John Battelle comments on Myspace joining in with Google • O’Reilly commentary • Stowe Boyd’s comments and perspective • Summary and opinion about Open Social from Marc Andreesen (co-founder of Netscape, CEO of Ning) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 77
  78. Technology: tools/IDE’s Primary objective: fast and flexible development, not reuse Aptana Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 78
  79. Technology - other enabling technologies XML Web ser vices: net work as platform • (see “Microsoft declares end of PC era”) Django: a high-level Python Web framework RSS Adobe Flex Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 79
  80. Technology - Design guidelines, best practices New book: “Web 2.0 Design Patterns” Agile development • Scott Rosenberg’s dissent: 5-year Web 2.0 design cycle Scaling issues: must architect for rapid growth • example: iLike (Facebook app) launched during holiday weekend in May, 2007 • Acquired first 10,000 users in first 12 hours of business • Next 10,000 users acquired in following 3 hours • Next 10,000 users acquired in following 2 hours • Developers filled up 40 servers after one day, had to beg and borrow additional servers during remainder of holiday weekend... UI issues Problems with non-integrated Web 2.0 apps 80 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
  81. Products/Vendors Aspects of Web 2.0 usage Big vendors Top 25 UK vendors Top Italian Web apps Web apps around the world Social Net working Ser vices Other startups, small vendors A visual display of all Web 2.0 vendors Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 81
  82. Aspects of Web 2.0 usage Use of Web 2.0 technologies One perspective: blogs, wikis, podcasts, RSS, social net works, content tags Providing Web 2.0 products/ser vices People power Use of mashups Use of Long Tail concept Emerging theme: let users (customers) take their data with them when/if they leave Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 82
  83. Big Vendors Google Yahoo Microsoft IBM Apple Cisco Tim O’Reilly: SAP as a Web 2.0 vendor? Oracle’s plans (as of Apr 30, 2008) to build a Web 2.0-friendly version of its products. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 83
  84. Google The Economist: “Who’s Afraid of Google?” The impact of Google’s “20%” HR strategy (in Zurich): Google Charts Google’s Master Plan (just kidding!) My visit to Google Mashups: Google’s MyMaps Long Tail: statistics on advertising People Power: Google Pages Google Apps/Docs • Dec 2007 NPD sur vey says 73% of Americans have never heard of Google Docs • Only 0.5% have abandoned desktop apps for an online alternative • 94% of Americans have never tried a web based productivity suite. Google Notebook (in 17 languages!) New stuff: Google3D More new stuff: Google Knol (and my blog posting about it) Google App Engine Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 84
  85. Yahoo Relationship with JotSpot Owns Flickr, among many other assets Unclear, as of June 08, 2008, whether it will continue as an independent company, get acquired by Microsoft, or work jointly with Google Yahoo buys Zimbra for $350 million to combine email + calendar (with Ajax) to compete with Google Apps Yahoo Pipes Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 85
  86. Microsoft Social Net works: investment in Facebook Net work as Platform: Windows Office Live (see Mary Jo Foley’s Sep 30, 2007 summary) Blogging tool: Windows Live Writer • Computer world review • released from beta on November 6, 2007 Support for Ajax Mashups • Strategy • MapCruncher • PopFly Long Tail -- XBox Live Arcade Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 86
  87. IBM IBM Bluehouse - promoted at Enterprise 2.0 conference Summary of Web 2.0 initiatives (including a VP of Social Eng.!) IBM’s Web 2.0 tools and plans “Business Week” article on IBM’s use of social net working Mashup strategy Support for Ruby on Rails Support for Ajax Lotus Notes V8 IBM acquires Web conferencing ser vice provider Blog: “Will IBM compete with Facebook/Web 2.0?” Interesting UI example: IBM Rocks Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 87
  88. Apple iPhone 2.0 (more) Long Tail: iTunes, soft ware for iPhone 2.0 People Power: iWeb Mashups: rumor of iPhoto-GoogleMap mashup (which Flickr already has!) Use of Web 2.0 technologies: Ajax (e.g., Apple’s .Mac web-mail) Innovative UI: iPhone, iPod Touch Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 88
  89. Apple iPhone 2.0 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 89
  90. Apple iPhone 2.0 Available July 11 Built-in GPS; location-aware device Blogging tools from TypePad News-reporting tools from AP New Ajax implementation of mail, etc. Loopt - for finding nearby friends “What’s still missing from the iPhone” “iPhone 2.0 Big in Bubbleland, but 2-3 Years Behind the Real World” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 90
  91. Cisco Cisco Buys Five Across -- a social net working company that supports posting of blogs, videos, friend lists, discussions, etc. Cisco Buys Webex Newly announced (late May 2008) holographic video- conferencing technology Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 91
  92. Products/vendors: Social Net working Services YouTube: 100 million videos/day • John Dvorak’s analysis of YouTube success factors • Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2006 • Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announces it will publish its university lectures on YouTube MySpace, FaceBook, LinkedIn, etc. A new example, which focuses on “knowledge net working”: Twine, announced at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit (see Nicholas Carr’s Oct 19, 2007 blog posting about this). “New Yorker” article: in-person net working in a Facebook world SecondLife Statistic: 300 social net working startups in last t wo years Statistic: 100,000 Ning “micro” social net works (see Ning) The 1% rule: 1% of a social site’s visitors create most content, and 10% “synthesize” the content, by interacting with it “Negative” social net work: “WeNeither,” about things we jointly DISlike. Top 20 social net works, ranked Now used heavily by middle-aged audiences Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 92
  93. Growth of Social Net working Strong Web 2.0 Metrics – The Times They are a-Changin’ – Hello Social Networking Alexa Global Traffic Rankings 2005 (1) 2007 (2) Rank Web site Rank Web site 1 yahoo.com 1 yahoo.com 2 msn.com 2 google.com 3 google.com 3 msn.com 4 ebay.com 4 youtube.com 5 amazon.com 5 live.com 6 microsoft.com 6 myspace.com 7 myspace.com 7 facebook.com 8 google.co.uk 8 orkut.com 9 aol.com 9 wikipedia.org 10 go.com 10 hi5.com Traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of page views / users (geometric mean of the two quantities averaged over time). (1) Rankings as of 12/31/05, excludes Microsoft Passport; (2) Rankings as of 10/15/07 Source: Alexa Global Traffic Rankings, Morgan Stanley Research 30 from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 30 of presentation Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 93
  94. Mary Meeker on Facebook from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 37 of presentation See also “Microsoft to Pay $240 Million for Stake in Facebook,” from Oct 24, 2007 issue of “New York Times” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 94
  95. Other startups, small vendors Digg (more) 37 Signals’ HighRise CRM Zoho CRM Scoble’s review of SmartSheet Naymz NetSuite’s Ajax-based interactive dashboards Web 2.0 company name generator (amusing) The future of web startups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 95
  96. Digg Interview with Digg’s Kevin Rose Ed’s report on Digg Digg Swarm Digg Stack Digg BigSpy Digg Arc Digg Explorer: a tool for exploration of the 500 most recent stories from Digg. Mary Meeker says (in her 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference presentation): 10 million unique visitors, +252% Y/Y growth My blog posting about Kina Grannis’ “Gotta Digg!” YouTube video Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 96
  97. Business Issues Basic issues Trends in large companies Web 2.0 in government Recommended strategies for “traditional” companies Strategies for small companies Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 97
  98. Business: basic issues Strategic • Use Web 2.0 (including related concepts like Long Tail) to find new products, ser vices, markets • Use Web 2.0 to increase revenue, dramatically reduce costs • Use Web 2.0 to empower individual customers, employees -- and outsiders like retirees, alumni, and others • Use social net working tools to find scarce skills, like IT people (this article says 58% of IT recruiting firms find Facebook/LinkedIn more useful than print advertising; and 48% said they were more effective than internet banner advertising. Tactical • Encourage collaboration with wikis • Encourage communication with blogs; (for example, see Delta Airlines’ corporate blog, highlighted in the October 2007 copy of their airline magazine) • Improve UI of web-based products and services with AJAX, etc. • Use new tools like Ruby on Rails to build Web 2.0 products, services more quickly Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 98
  99. Trends in large companies “CIO” magazine prediction for 2007: “IT reluctantly embraces Web 2.0” See May 6, 2008 “CIO Australia” article on “Enterprise 2.0: What is it good for?” McKinsey survey of Web 2.0 usage in business Fall 2007 “CIO Magazine” survey on personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO’s (see chart, here) Expect conservative reaction from CIO’s (see “Web 2.0 Gets Business Chops,” indicating that > 50% of CIO’s think that Web 2.0 is an overhyped buzzword; see chart here). Tom Davenport’s Nov 13, 2007 blog on why Facebook won’t succeed in the business world. An opposing viewpoint was posted a few days earlier by Charlene Li: “Why Your Company Needs To Be on Facebook.” David Pogue’s summary of why many companies aren’t using Web 2.0: “Are You Taking Advantage of Web 2.0?” Two views of Web 2.0 use in business for 2007 “IT Can’t Stop Web 2.0” and Knowledge Worker 2.0” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 99
  100. More trends in large companies Sun’s endorsement of CEO blogging and Luis Suarez’s article on “Ten Reasons CEOs should blog” IBM’s experience: “Getting Into Social Soft ware, and How It Is Changing the Role of Knowledge Management.” IBM comments on collaboration and business-oriented social net works High-level blogging at Intel “Dark blogs” Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs (see this Jun 2006 Scobleizer blog), 10,000 internal blogs. (Also, see this article, which says IBM has 3,500 blogs). WebWorkerDaily: acknowledging lifestyle of distributed workers CEO reaction to social media Social net working as a business tool; first Facebook enterprise-app announced mid-Nov 2007 . Ed’s notes here, and here about how employees interpret corporate blogging policies; sample corporate blogging policies here and here See also Nov 16, 2007 “Computer world” article, “Corporate blogging: Does it really work?” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 100
  101. Personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO’s Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 101
  102. Response to: What is Web 2.0? A user interface to SOA 13% A waste of time and bandwidth 15% Convergence of voice & data (IM) 16% Soft ware as a Ser vice 22% A source of technology innovation for enterprise 31% Virtual environments (e.g., Second Life) 32% A technology (e.g., Ajax) 43% A social phenomenon (blogging) 46% An overhyped buzzword 53% Browser-based apps (e.g., Google Maps) 54% Web-based info sharing (e.g., Wikipedia) 59% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% from an Oct 31, 2007 sur vey in “Internet Evolution” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 102
  103. Technology adoption cycle Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority 40 Late Majority Laggards 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Time of adoption strategic objective value added cost displacement/avoidance technological imperative Example of laggards: 20% of U.S. population has never used e-mail, as of May 2008 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 103
  104. Web 2.0 in government One basic strategy: shift control and resources for services, information, and expression of ideas/opinions to citizens Tara Hunt’s 170-slide “Government Next” presentation Travel delays (clevercommute.com -- now expanding beyond metropolitan N YC area, with coverage in Boston), parking information (see a similar example, involving real-time updates about traffic slowdowns caused by a highway outage in St. Louis). Saving democracy with Web 2.0 Hastily Formed Net works (HFN’s) (see Luis Suarez’s blog posting about using Twitter and microblogs in emergencies) Health-related initiatives: see Marissa Mayer’s description at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference of what Google is doing with Google Health Transparentgovt website with list of countries whose governments are using Web 2.0 US Federal Government Web 2.0 Nor wegian Government Web 2.0 Tim O’Reilly on government’s use of Web 2.0 Section 508 compliance issues U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s use of Web 2.0 A-Space IBM on governmental blogging Poll: is the government ready for Web 2.0? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 104
  105. Recommended strategies for traditional companies SWOT analysis Pilot projects IBM’s Luis Suarez on “making the business case for social computing” Har vard Business Review podcast on strategies for succeeding with social-net working tools within the enterprise Skunk works Acquisitions Developing an enterprise Web 2.0 strategy A Microsoft perspective on business opportunities for Web 2.0 Case study: $279 Forrester report on Web 2.0 implementation at Northwestern Insurance; Yahoo summary of the report Two more case studies on introducing Web 2.0 into the corporate environment, on the Enterprise Web 2.0 website Case study of SAP introducing social net works into its own corporate environment Heed advice for avoiding dot-bomb 2.0 Business model for mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 105
  106. Recommended strategies: SWOT analysis Opportunities • New products, services • New markets, new customers (Long Tail) • Greater customer loyalty • Greater employee loyalty • Faster time, lower cost for R&D, product development Threats • New competitors whose existence you don’t even know about • More effective competition from competitors who are enjoying the benefits oppportunities summarized above • Loss of reputation (e.g., from customer blogs) • Security problems caused by blending of “personal” and corporate IT lives • Risk of malware Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 106
  107. Strategies for small companies Scobleizer’s advice Brad Feld’s advice about VC economics for Web 2.0 companies Things to keep in mind: Web as platform will have more appeal than in big corp Generally less dependent on legacy systems Easier (culturally) to introduce blogging, wikis, social net works Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 107
  108. Cultural Issues People power Generational trends Open, sharable content/interface • Hook into Google, Yahoo, Amazon, etc. • Look for ways to “open up” your own company’s intellectual/information assets “Out ward bound” collaboration: retirees, alumni, hobbyists Long Tail impact Perpetual beta environment Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 108
  109. Cultural Issues: people power Customers Employees Marketplace Citizens Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 109
  110. People power: customers Let them help design new products Let them help suggest ads/marketing • current.com’s Joel Hyatt says customers prefer them 9-to-1 over traditional commercials • Cost is zero, as compared to $1 million for traditional commercial • kayak.com user ads • Chevy Tahoe user commercial • fan-made iPhone commercial (see also Nick Haley’s iPod Touch commercial, which Apple picked up, and broadcast during the World Series games on Oct 27-28, 2007) • see current.com for a more ambitious initiative in this area for user-generated content • Another example: 98% of content on eBay is user-generated (from Meg Whitman at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference) Let them provide feedback/commentary on products/ser vices Let them help other customers with support Sometimes they know more than the vendor Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 110
  111. People power: employees Let them blog behind the firewall, if not openly and publicly Remember: Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs and 10,000 internal blogs Example: CEO of Sun Microsystems blogs Example: Michael Chertoff, head of U.S. Homeland Security, blogs (eek!) Non-technical example at Google: new products bubble up from the bottom of organization Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 111
  112. People power: marketplace Viral marketing Viral dissemination of good news and bad news • AOL cancellation example • Comcast customer service visit Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 112
  113. People power: citizens Decreased dependence on “ authoritative” source of news/content Political commentary • “Daily Show” commentary on Viacom-Google billion dollar lawsuit • Philippine activists using YouTube to spread word about political protest issues • Mashup of George Bush and U2’s “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” Products/ser vices get adapted in unexpected ways • New York Times: CraigsList used by prostitutes • Nigerian scammers using Facebook for phishing attacks Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 113
  114. Cultural Issues: Generational trends Demographics of bloggers Dec 2007 Pew sur vey of teenage trends for various forms of communication (see next page) Rise of the “silver surfers” Remember: senior management is 2-3 generations older than today’s Web 2.0-sav vy population What Web 2.0 will mean for the next generation of the workforce Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 114
  115. Dec 2007 Teenage communication trends Percent of teens who communicate with their friends every day via these methods All teens Multi-channel teens Talk to friends on landline 39% 46% telephone Talk on cell phone 35% 70% Spend time with friends in 31% 35% person Instant messaging 28% 54% Send texts 27% 60% Send messages over social 21% 47% net work sites Send email 14% 22% Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 115
  116. Cultural issues: Long Tail Impact Stop focusing entirely on “big hits” Look for ways to create/nourish a “long tail” of products/ser vices Often represents a huge cultural change for the business people (e.g., R&D, product planning, marketing, etc.) whose job always assumed emphasizing the big hits and ignoring almost everything else Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 116
  117. Cultural issues: perpetual beta concept “Good enough” culture Weekly releases of new downloadable updates/ enhancements -- versus annual releases of new products Example: Google mail (gmail) is still listed as a “beta” product, yet millions are using it Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 117
  118. Trends Caveat: predicting the future is hard And there is resistance to “paradigm shifts” Basic point: today’s R&D is next decade’s “mainstream” Gartner’s view of Web 2.0 trends Kevin Kelly’s view of “next web” Morgan Stanley 2007 Internet trends Web 3.0 Technical trends Business trends Social/cultural trends Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 118
  119. Resistance to paradigm shifts Disruptive technologies often threaten the established scientific, governmental, religious, social, cultural norms This has been true for centuries, if not longer But revolutionaries often forget: “you tend to become what you disrupt” (Meg Whitman) Typical examples in Web 2.0 world • resistance to user-generated content • resistance to policy of allowing employees to blog about their work • rejection of web-based products as “too light weight” • rejection of Facebook applications by “Wall Street Journal” technology journalist Kara Swisher as “trivial” and “frivolous” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 119
  120. Trends: predicting the future is hard! Fubini’s Law People least likely to anticipate how new technology will be applied: inventors of the new technology! Examples of inaccurate predictions Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 120
  121. Examples of inaccurate predictions In 1895, British Postmaster General Arnold Morley said, “Gas and water are necessities for every inhabitant of the Country. Telephones are not and never will be. It is no use trying to persuade ourselves that the use of the telephone could be enjoyed by the large masses of people in their daily life.” (see “Public Ownership and the Telephone in Great Britain,” Chapter VIII, p. 117) In 1903, soon after the first Wright Brothers flight, Rudyard Kipling predicted that airpseeds would reach only 300 mph by the year 2000. In 1927, J.B.S. Haldane predicted that the first landing on Mars would not take place for 10 million years. In 1943, IBM Chairman Thomas Watson may have said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (see this Wikipedia article for discussion of alleged comment.) In 1945, FDR’s naval aide, Admiral William Leahy, said about the atomic bomb, “That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done ... the bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.” In 1949, “Popular Mechanics,” forecasting the relentless march of science, wrote “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” In 1977, DEC founder/CEO Ken Olsen remarked at a World Future Society conference that “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.” In 1981, an obscure computer geek named Bill Gates allegedly said, “640K bytes ought to be enough for anybody.” (But see this article for Gates’ denial that he ever said such a thing.) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 121
  122. Trends: today’s R&D is tomorrow’s “mainstream Some of it is secret Some of it is ignored, dismissed, rejected, or laughed at And some is being used by “pre-early adopters” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 122
  123. Web 3.0 New York Times article on Web 3.0 “What to Expect from Web 3.0” Mass Market becomes Long Tail List of cool Web 3.0 apps Tim Berners-Lee: Web 3.0 = “semantic Web” Semantic Web = end of Google? Freebase: Wikipedia + Open Directory (see Nicholas Carr’s blog posting about Freebase) A definition of Web 3.0 from Jason Calcanis, and a rebuttal from Tim O’Reilly Today’s world: we find content, but we often type the wrong search term. Tomorrow’s world: content finds us Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 123
  124. Trends: technical Moore’s Law New user interface (UI) paradigms Nicholas Carr’s vision of the future of personal computing: a marriage bet ween Google’s “cloud” computing and Apple’s UI Death of the PC? • Would a typical teenager prefer a new smart-phone, or a new PC? • Rise of the thin-client device Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 124
  125. Trends, technical: Moore’s Law 10 years = 6.67 doublings = 101.6x improvement over today’s technology Per vasive (ubiquitous) computing: today’s $100 computer becomes next decade’s $1 computer Similar advances in speed, storage, bandwidth, footprint Computers exceed human intelligence? (See also June 2008 IEEE Spectrum, “The Rapture of the Geeks: separating science from fiction in the technological singularity”) Embedded computing 125 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
  126. Trends, technical: ubiquitous/pervasive computing Everyware: the dawning age of ubiquitous computing Example (from Tim O’Reilly via Twitter, on May 31, 2008): billboards that look back at you The $100 (actually $188) laptop • OLPC site • “Buy a Laptop for a Child, Get Another Laptop Free” • David Pogue’s review of OLPC, in the 10/04/2007 “New York Times” • See Nov 24, 2007 “Wall Street Journal” article, “A Little Laptop with Big Ambitions” • Colombia has recently ordered 65,000 OLPC machines for distribution to children • 2nd-generation “XO-2” machine expected by 2010; half-size, price drop to $75, power consumption reduced from 4 watts to 1 watt; see details here. IEEE special issue on per vasive computing Proceedings of 6th Conference on Per vasive Computing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 126
  127. Trends, technical: embedded computing RFID Everything has an IP address Ambient devices (see also announcement for Chumby) The bionic woman/man? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 127
  128. Trends, technical: New UI paradigms This is a whole field unto itself, with industry leaders like Apple, etc. Exciting new example: Cisco’s holographic video- conferencing But it’s also interesting to see the innovation coming from Web 2.0 vendors, startups, and inspired individuals Examples: Digg’s UI experiments Tweet wheel IBM Rocks Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 128
  129. Trends: business Web 2.0 will put some Web 1.0 companies out of business Senior executives’ acceptance/non-acceptance of social net works & Web 2.0 will become a more and more significant differentiator; see this “Wall Street Journal” inter view with Clay Shirky. Death of Microsoft? (see Dec 16, 2007 New York Times article, “Google Gets Ready to Rumble With Microsoft”) Appearance of next Google? Decreased relevance of venture capitalists? Boundary bet ween customers and companies blurs Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 129
  130. Trends: social/cultural Impact of a new generation of tech-sav vy users Next 5 billion Internet users Boundary bet ween government and citizens blur Current behavior: Web data entered by humans. New behavior: Web data automatically entered by devices (Flickr) Revenge by gadget: • see “Devices Enforce Silence of Cellphones, Illegally,” in Nov 2, 2007 “New York Times” • See PhoneJammer as an example of such a device Blurring of (some) political boundaries • Net work Nations • MySpace is now 11th largest country in the world Impact on education Blurring of “real life” and “virtual life” Video: “Shift Happens” (Slideshare.net version) Interesting trends: “Did You Know?” and “Did You Know? 2.0” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 130
  131. Trends: a new generation of tech-sav vy users 91% of mobile phone users keep their phone within one meter 24 hours a day, 7 days a week (from Mary Meeker’s presentation, at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference) Younger generation abandoning email, in favor of IM/Facebook/Twitter. See “The Death of Email” “What Does Generation Y Want?” Growing Up Digital: the rise of the Net generation “Google, a Girl, and the Coming Apocalypse” An Internet Love Song: “BRBOMGLOLROFLMFAO” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 131
  132. Trends: impact on education See Michael Wesch’s video, “Vision of Students Today,” about the impact of Web 2.0 on the educational field. Banning Wikipedia for research papers A relevant statistic from “Wired” article: 30% of young people don’t even know their own phone number (and many don’t carry watches any more) Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announces it will publish its univ. lectures on YouTube Should children learn to operate in society/schools without Google? Columbia Center for New Media Teaching & Learning Crowdsourcing Readings and Resources Top Web Tools for Students Student contributions to wikis; see “Wikipedia Becomes a Class Assignment” Another paper on the use of Web 2.0 in educational environments. Nicholas Carr, “Is Google Making Us Stupid?” (“I can’t read “War and Peace” any more...” ) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 132
  133. Conclusions Assume Web 2.0 is “real,” even if over-hyped • Infoworld Oct 2006 assessment: “Bubble 2.0?” • See also Nov 2007 blog article, “Web 2.0 Manages to Sober Up” Your objectives should be: • Ajaxify • Wikify • Long-tail-ify • Open up API’s for mashups • Enable your people (customers, employees, citizens) Assess your company’s response to new waves of technology • Crossing the Chasm • Is your company an innovator, early adopter, mainstream, or laggard? • Separate technical response from business response! Consider a pilot project • Guidelines for pilots: not too big, not too small; fast results; important, but not mission- critical; well-measured; used partly as a training opportunity • Consider letting users drive it Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 133
  134. References Conferences Books Websites and blogs Articles Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 134
  135. References - conferences Enterprise 2.0, Jun 9-12; Boston SuperNova 2008, June 16-18: San Francisco International Forum on Enterprise 2.0, Jun 25: Varese, Italy Social Net working Conference, Jul 10-11 and Sep 22-23: San Francisco and London, respectively Web 2.0 Expo, Sep 16-19: New York City Future of Web Apps (FOWA), Oct 8-10: London PopTech, Oct 22-25; Camden, Maine Web 2.0 Summit, Nov 5-7: San Francisco Ajaxian conferences Wikimania 2008, Jul 17-19: Alexandria, Egypt Call for participation for May 12-14, 2008 “Where 2.0” conference Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 135
  136. References - Books Specific Web 2.0 books • Social Net works Around the World: How is Web 2.0 Changing Your Daily Life? • Web 2.0: The Future of the Internet and Technology Economy • Building Scalable Web Sites • Web 2.0 Design Patterns: what entrepreneurs and information architects need to know • Here Comes Everybody: the power of organizing without organizations, by Clay Shirky Ajax books • Pragmatic Ajax: A Web 2.0 Primer • Head Rush Ajax • Ajax in Action Ruby on Rails books • Ruby on Rails: up and running • Agile Web Development with Rails: A pragmatic guide Misc books • Everything is Miscellaneous: the power of the new disorder • Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything • The Wealth of Nations: how social production transforms markets and freedoms • The Clue Train Manifesto (now 10 years old!) • The Search: how Google and its rivals rewrote the rules of business, and transformed our culture • Wiki Web Collaboration • The Long Tail: why the future of business is selling less and less of more and more Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 136
  137. References - blogs & websites my blog: The Yourdon Report O’Reilly’s: “What is Web 2.0” O’Reilly Radar blog Google Maps Mania StartupNews.com eHub - Web 2.0 startups News about startups: TechCrunch Chris Anderson’s “The Long Tail” blog Steve Borsch’s “Connecting the Dots” blog Howard Rheingold’s “Smart Mobs” blog Official Google blog Web 2.0 slides - 1,400 sites Ian Delaney’s “Twopointtouch” blog David Weinberger’s “JOHO the Blog” Stowe Boyd’s “/Message” blog Luis Suarez’s elsua: the Knowledge Management blog Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 137
  138. References - articles “Someone to Watch Over Me (on a Google Map),” by Theodora Stites, New York Times, Jul 9, 2006 “Small is Beautiful for Web 2.0 Startups,” by Martin LaMonia, CNET News, Feb 6, 2006 “Soft ware Out There,” by John Markoff, New York TImes, Apr 5, 2006 “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe, Wired, June 2006 “Digital Publishing Scrambles the Rules,” by Motoki Rich, New York Times, Jun 5, 2006 “Scan This Book!”, by Kevin Kelly, May 14, 2006 “The New Wisdom of the Web,” by Steven Levy and Brad Stone, Newsweek, April 3, 2006 “Microsoft Offers Range of Programs That Run Off Web, Not Hard Disk,” by Walter Mossberg, Wall Street Journal, Dec 15, 2005 “Corporate Americas Wakes Up To Web 2.0,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Jun 26, 2006 “Are CIO’s Ignoring Web 2.0 Technologies?”, by Allen Alter, CIO Insight, May 10, 2006 “Web 2.0: The New Internet ‘Boom’ Doesn’t Live Up To Its Name,” by Paul Boutin, Slate, March 29, 2006 “AJAX Spurs Web Rebirth for Desktop Apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005 “Ajax: Smoother Surfing Without Microsoft,” by Daren Briscoe, Newsweek, January 30, 2006 “New Web-Based Technology Draws Applications, Investors,” by Mylene Mangalindan and Rebecca Buckman, Wall Street Journal, Nov 3, 2005 “Growing Wikipedia Revises Its ‘Anyone Can Edit’ Policy,” by Katie Hafner, New York Times, Jun 17, 2006 “Homo Conexus,” by James Fallows, Technology Review, Jul-Aug 2006 “The Internet Knows What You’ll Do Next,” by David Leonhardt, New York Times, Jul 5, 2006 “Does Every Company Need A Web 2.0 Strategy?” by Dion Hinchcliffe, ZDNet, Aug 9, 2006 “Creating Business Value With Web 2.0,” Cutter IT Journal special issue, October 2006 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 138
  139. Administrative items Schedule • 09:00 - Begin • 11:00 - Coffee break • 12:50 - Lunch • 14:00 - Resume • 15:30 - Coffee break • 16:30 - Finish About me Seminar materials • printed version • Electronic PDF version • Slideshare.net version Workshops Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 139
  140. Workshops Workshop 1: Benefits of Web 2.0 Workshop 2: Risks of Web 2.0 Workshop 3: Implementation of Web 2.0 Workshop 4: Role of IT in Web 2.0 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 140
  141. Workshop 1: Benefits of Web 2.0 Identify 1st priority, 2nd priority, 3rd priority Increased revenue: none Increased market share:1,3 Attract new customers: 1,1,1,3,3,4 Increase customer loyalty: 2 Decrease costs: 1,1,,2,2,2,3 Improve employee morale, reduce turnover: 3 Reduce product development time Other benefits? Please identify what you think they will be Increased distribution of information: 1, 2 Increased information for users; 3 Reduced time to market: 2, 3 Collaboration of content: 2, 2 Improved quality of service: 2 Improved user experience, UI: 3 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 141
  142. Oct 2007 Workshop 1: Benefits of Web 2.0 Identify 1st priority, 2nd priority, 3rd priority Increased revenue: 3 Increased market share: 3,3 Attract new customers: 1,1,1 -- first-time users? what matters most to these users? Features/functions? UI? Performance? Individual control? Increase customer loyalty: 1,2,1,2 -- implies not first-time users Decrease costs: 1,1 Improve employee morale, reduce turnover: 2,1,2,3 Other benefits? Please identify: • Improved ser vice & information quality (2) 142 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
  143. Workshop 2: Risks of Web 2.0 Identify 1st priority, 2nd priority, 3rd priority Wasted cost/time: 5 Legal/copyright problems: 3,2,3 Security problems: 1, 1, 2,2,2 Compliance/regulatory problems: 2 Privacy problems: 1,1,2,2 Loss of control: 1,3,3,3,4 New competitors Reputation problems: 3 Reliability of data: 4 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 143
  144. Workshop 3: Implementation of Web 2.0 next one year next 2 years Internal blogs 61614335621 124445621 External blogs 11611212626 2110315626 0 - don’t know 1 - NO! Internal wikis 61626415642 345425644 2 - unlikely External wikis 11611112424 2220215425 3 - 50/50 Long Tail 11411211212 13514310314 4 - likely Mashups 61634411535 344522545 5 - YES! 6 - already using Social net works for 61615212342 125214344 employees Others? Please identify Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 144
  145. Workshop 4: Role of IT in Web 2.0 IT must define Web 2.0 strategy: 1,2,3,4,1,4,5 IT must control Web 2.0 implementation: 1,1,3,3,4,6,4 IT should offer advice, education, and assistance -- but not try to control it: 4,2,1,1,2,2,5 1 - strongly agree IT should have no involvement: 5,5,4,5,4,6,1 2 - agree 3 - neutral Other roles? Please identify: 4 - disagree pilot project, prototype 5 - strongly disagree 6 - don’t know strong decision in the technical issues Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 145
  146. Oct 2007 Workshop 4: Role of IT in Web 2.0 IT must define Web 2.0 strategy: 4,3,4,2 IT must control Web 2.0 implementation: 2,1,1,4 IT should offer advice, education, and assistance -- but not try to control it: 1,2,3,1 IT should have no involvement: 5,5,5,4 1 - strongly agree 2 - agree Other roles? Please identify: 3 - neutral 4 - disagree propose Web 2.0 strategy 5 - strongly disagree Identify Web 2.0 (technologies?) 6 - don’t know Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 146

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