Review of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in India

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Despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India.

The presentation includes the basic introduction of models with their application & pros & cons in Indian scenario.

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Review of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in India

  1. 1. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />YOUGAL TAK IP 2108<br />GUIDE: PROF. TALAT MUNSHI<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  2. 2. METHODOLOGY<br />Research problem/ question/ aim and objectives<br /> Role of transport models, its evolution, and their development <br />History and evolution/ characteristics/ classification of models<br />Introduction<br />Understanding the basic role of transport system, travel demand and need to models them.<br />Characteristics of transport demand/ supply<br />Characteristics of transport problem<br />Transport demand supply equilibrium<br />Review Phase <br />Transport demand supply gap- equilibrium.<br />Classic transport model<br />Characteristics of various models<br />Transport models- in practice <br />Behavioural transport model.<br />Landuse transport interactions. (LUTI)<br />Identification of various indicators to determine suitability in any context. <br />Determining suitability<br />Identification of models used in India and determining suitability <br />Expert opinion- Conversation with experts from different transportation organization and capturing their opinion about model being used. <br />Primary Survey<br />Data collection & analysis<br />Analysis <br />Literature review of various documents (reports and research papers) on the same.<br />Secondary Data<br />model identification in Indian context <br />role of transport model being used in India and its suitability in Indian context.<br />Checking suitability <br />Future developments<br />Where are we and where are we going???<br />Conclusion<br />APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA <br />A CRITIQUE<br />DISSERTATION 2008-09<br />IS THE TRANSPORT MODEL BEING USED IN INDIA IS SUITABLE IN INDIAN CONTEXT OR NOT???<br />
  3. 3. TRANSPORT MODEL<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br />+<br />MODEL<br />TRANSPORT <br />movement of people and goods <br />between relatively distant <br />geographical locations, with any <br /> ‘activity’<br />to perform, or for any<br />purpose and any duration.<br />can be defined as a <br />Simplified representation<br />of a part of the real world.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  4. 4. TRANSPORT SYSTEM<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br />ACTIVITY<br />SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION<br />With some activity to perform for any given purpose, by some mode,<br /> it give birth to <br />COMPLEX TRANSPORT SYSTEM.<br />Working trip<br />school trip<br />Recreational trip<br />social trip<br />MODES<br />MODE IS ALWAYS NEEDED TO PERFORM ANY ACTIVITY <br />Air<br />Rail<br />cable<br />Road<br />water<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  5. 5. TRANSPORT SYSTEM<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br /><ul><li>basic component of an area’s social, economic and physical structure.
  6. 6. Design and performance- provides opportunities for mobility
  7. 7. Good transport system- increase mobility and give rise to economic activities.
  8. 8. also give rise to the DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  9. 9. TRANSPORT DEMAND- INTRODUCTION<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br /><ul><li>primarily generated mainly due to
  10. 10. purpose, and to
  11. 11. perform some activity.
  12. 12. Can be by passengers or firms moving freight.</li></ul>Why to model transport demand???....<br /><ul><li>designed to evaluate Transport Demands
  13. 13. use this information to predict roadway traffic volumes and impacts such as congestion and pollution emissions</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  14. 14. RESEARCH PROBLEM<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br /><ul><li>ongoing debate in Anglo‐ American context on suitability in present context.
  15. 15. In developing nations like India, transport studies are based on models borrowed from Anglo‐ American context,
  16. 16. rate of urbanisation & development is contextual and very different in developing world.
  17. 17. Thus suitability of modelling approach is also likely to be different.
  18. 18. despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India. </li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  19. 19. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE <br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br />TO REVIEW THE METHODS USED TO MODEL TRANSPORT DEMAND <br />AND <br />APPLICABILITY OF THESE MODELS IN INDIAN CONTEXT.<br />sub objective<br /><ul><li>To Understand the need of transport models.
  20. 20. To critically review and asses methods that has been used
  21. 21. To determine the steps that can improve the method used...If necessary</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  22. 22. INTRODUCTION- TRANSPORT MODEL<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br /><ul><li>1ST COMPREHENSIVE URBAN TRANSPORT STUDIEs- in USA (1953) and in Chicago (1956).
  23. 23. Results of HEAVY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT in developments.
  24. 24. begins with the DATA COLLECTION on current traffic.
  25. 25. Traffic data together with data on population, employment, trip rates, travel costs, etc., is used to develop a TRAFFIC DEMAND MODEL.
  26. 26. Advances in COMPUTING, results in very technical and sophisticated methods</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  27. 27. HISTORY AND EVOLUTION <br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br />1990s<br />developments in response to environmental pollution, and policy shifts towards travel demand management.<br />1980s– 1990s<br />1970 – 1980s<br />developments in response to criticisms of static, trip-based analysis.<br />developments in response to criticisms of aggregate methods.<br />1950s– 1960s<br />developments in response to huge investment in highway construction and advances in computing.<br />(source: bureau of transport policy, Australia)<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  28. 28. CHARACTERISTICS- TRANSPORT MODELS<br />REVIEW PHASE-I<br /><ul><li>Should have the capability of predicting long-term travel demand (20-30 years).
  29. 29. Be capable of explaining long-term changes in land use patterns.
  30. 30. Permit close interaction between land use and transport.
  31. 31. Be able to explain competition between various transport modes.
  32. 32. for better results and output, one should have to be aware of positive and negatives of the model.
  33. 33. May be not all models are able to meet all these demand, but some models may fulfill the nearest objectives. </li></ul>(source: D. Ortuzar, modelling transport)<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  34. 34. TRANSPORT PROBLEMS- DEMNAD/ SUPPLY GAP<br />REVIEW PHASE-II<br /><ul><li>more widespread and severe than ever.
  35. 35. both in industrialized and developing countries.
  36. 36. Increase in traffic and transport demand.
  37. 37. Congestion, delays , accidents and environment problems. </li></ul>ECONOMIC GROWTH<br />In modes and regions<br />generated levels of demand <br />CAPACITY OF TRANSPORT<br />resulted in <br />Exceeding in <br />DEMAND SIDE<br />SUPPLY SIDE<br />LONG PERIODS OF UNDER-INVESTMENT<br />FRAGILE SUPPLY SYSTEMS<br />(break down under above average conditions)<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  38. 38. CHARACTERISTICS- TRANSPORT DEMAND<br />CHARACTERISTICS- TRANSPORT SUPPLY<br />REVIEW PHASE-II<br />Widens the<br />Restricts <br />Specific peak<br />Important <br />May take <br />important<br />Economic<br />Travel behaviour/ pattern<br /><ul><li>Good transport system</li></ul>provision of transport infrastructure<br />From supply point of view<br />opportunities<br />limits<br />justification<br />periods<br />Political role<br />5-15 yrs<br />Adjusted <br />Avoid unnecessary early investment<br />provision of transport infrastructure<br /><ul><li>Heavily congested/ poorly connected</li></ul>Economic/ social development<br />To demand<br />SUPPLY- IMPORTANT POLITICAL ROLE<br />DEMAND- OVER SPACE<br />investment in Transport infrastructure <br />Safe bet <br />Concentration of population and economic activity<br />High quality MRTS<br />Very difficult <br />To prove the investment wrong or unnecessary <br />Would not be viable <br />In areas with less economic and habitable activity<br />SUPPLY- LUMPY/ TAKES A LONG TIME<br />DEMAND- OVER TIME<br />Planning to full<br />implementation<br />Usually large projects<br />Concentration on few hours of the day<br />Cope well<br />Breaks down<br />May be scope <br />during peak periods<br />Of providing a gradual build up over the time<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  39. 39. CLASSIC FOUR- STEP AGGREGATE TRANSPORT MODEL<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br />BASIC ASSUMPTIONS<br /><ul><li>Possible to predict a future land‐use pattern INDEPENDENTLY OF CHANGES to the transport system.
  40. 40. Possible to predict travel behaviour based on AVERAGED ZONAL DATA.
  41. 41. Relationships between household characteristics and travel behaviour remain steady over long periods of time.
  42. 42. Travel decisions were made principally on the minimization of travel time and cost. </li></ul>BASIC WORKING CONCEPT<br /><ul><li>the area is divided into a set of trip generating and trip-attracting zones called traffic analysis zones (TAZs) .
  43. 43. Travel demand is estimated using the sequential four-step process.
  44. 44. The system is characterised as being closed as well as unidirectional.
  45. 45. does not allow any feedback from travel costs into the trip generation process.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  46. 46. CHARACTERISTICS- ZONING DESIGN<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br />ZONING SYSTEM- used to aggregate the individual households into manageable chunks for modeling purposes<br /><ul><li>ZONING SIZE</li></ul>must be such that it allow minimum aggregation errors.<br /><ul><li>ZONING SYSTEM MUST BE COMPATIBLE-</li></ul>with administrative divisions, particularly census zones.<br /> with cordons and screen lines and with those of previous zoning systems.<br /><ul><li>ZONES SHOULD BE AS HOMOGENEOUS</li></ul>as possible in their land use and or population composition<br /><ul><li>SHAPE OF THE ZONES</li></ul>should allow an easy determination of their centroid connectors.<br /><ul><li>NOT TO BE OF EQUAL SIZE </li></ul>if anything, they could be of similar dimensions in travel time units.<br />Map showing 197 traffic zones of the study area which includes AMC, AUDA and Gandhinagar.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  47. 47. TRIP GENERATION<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>AIM- to predict the number of trips entering and leaving each zone.
  48. 48. Two methods been used for modelling generation
  49. 49. GROWTH METHOD
  50. 50. CROSS CLASSIFICATION OR CATEGORY ANALYSIS</li></ul>CATEGORY ANALYSIS (1960)<br /><ul><li>category analysis in UK / cross-classification in USA.
  51. 51. Basic socio- economic variables used: </li></ul>CAR OWNERSHIP HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD INCOMES<br /><ul><li>Basic assumptions- trip generation rates are relatively stable over time for certain household.</li></ul>DISADVANTAGES/ DRAWBACKS<br /><ul><li>large samples are required (independent of zoning) - or cell values will vary in reliability.</li></ul>GROWTH METHOD <br /><ul><li>used to predict the future number of external trips to an area.
  52. 52. there are no simple ways to predict them.
  53. 53. problems with these methods in estimation of the growth method F.
  54. 54. errors here are carried through the entire process.</li></ul>INELASTICITY IN TRIP GENERATION<br /><ul><li>CHANGES TO THE NETWORK assumed to have no effects on trip productions and attractions.
  55. 55. Eg.- extension of underground line to a location which had no service previously would not generate more trips between that zone and the rest.
  56. 56. neglects all the INTERNAL‐ TO‐ INTERNAL TRIPS.
  57. 57. NON MOTORIZED TRIPS are not included in calculating the overall trip generation.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  58. 58. TRIP DISTRIBUTION<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>AIM- to distribute the total number of trips originating in each zone among all possible destination zones available.
  59. 59. INPUT
  60. 60. set of zonal trip productions and attractions (obtain in TG).
  61. 61. travel time between zones- third variable.
  62. 62. methods used for modelling distribution</li></ul>GROWTH METHOD GRAVITY MODELS ENTROPY- MAXIMISING MODELS<br />GROWTH METHOD<br /><ul><li>Procedure is useful, when an old distribution is known.
  63. 63. Takes a old distribution pattern and updates this to new and actual distribution pattern.
  64. 64. old pattern is manipulated until the trip generations constraints are met.
  65. 65. Manipulation is called the FURNESS METHOD. </li></ul>ENTROPY MAXIMISING METHOD<br /><ul><li>Derived by Wilson in 1970.
  66. 66. Applied where the notion of uncertainty is involved in a system which are subject of random motion.</li></ul>ORIGIN (PRODUCTION) CONSTRAINED<br />DESTINATION (ATTRACTION) CONSTRAINED<br />UNCONSTRAINED<br />GRAVITY METHOD<br /><ul><li>originally generated from an analogy with Newton’s gravitational law.
  67. 67. Forecasting future trip patterns when important changes in network takes place.
  68. 68. Estimates trips for each cell, without directly using the observed trip pattern.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  69. 69. MODAL SPLIT<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>One of the most important modeling task.
  70. 70. allocation or ‘distribution’ of trips between the various modes available.
  71. 71. The factors influencing mode choice- classifies into 3 groups
  72. 72. CHARACTERISTICS OF TRIP MAKER (family income, nos. of cars, density)
  73. 73. CHARACTERISTICS OF JOURNEY (trip distance, time of the day)
  74. 74. CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSPORT FACILITY (riding time, excess time)
  75. 75. Mode choice models
  76. 76. AGGREGATED- if based on zonal data.
  77. 77. DISAGGREGATED - if based on household and/ or individual data.
  78. 78. types of modal-split model</li></ul>TRIP-END MODAL SPLIT MODELS TRIP-INTERCHANGE MODAL SPLIT MODELS<br /><ul><li>Operates immediately after the trip generation.
  79. 79. split total travel demand for each zone by transport mode.
  80. 80. operates at the stage between trip distribution and route assignment,
  81. 81. splitting of intra- and inter-zonal trips among available modes. </li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  82. 82. TRIP ASSIGNMENT<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION- to the routes of an urban transport network.
  83. 83. CONGESTED SITUATION- traffic spread to the alternative routes
  84. 84. To equalize the travel time or costs for using these routes.
  85. 85. Basic inputs-
  86. 86. peak hour matrix in congested areas
  87. 87. network namely links , including speed‐flow curves.</li></ul>ALL- OR- NOTHING ASSIGNMENT<br /><ul><li>simplest route choice and assignment method</li></ul>Basic assumption-<br /><ul><li>there are no congestion effects,
  88. 88. that all drivers consider the same attributes for route choice
  89. 89. that they perceive and weigh them in the same way.</li></ul>ROUTE CHOICE<br /><ul><li>choosing the route which offers the least perceived costs.</li></ul>Factors- influence the choice of route<br /><ul><li>JOURNEY TIME MONETARY COST (FUEL AND OTHERS) distance
  90. 90. congestion and queues type of road (motor way, secondary road)
  91. 91. Signposting road works habit.</li></ul>TREE BUILDING<br /><ul><li>an important stage in any assignment method</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  92. 92. TRIP ASSIGNMENT- VARIOUS MODELS<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br />STOCHASTIC METHODS<br /><ul><li>Consider the second- best routes.
  93. 93. GENERATES ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS- large number of second- best routes between each O-D pair
  94. 94. Several methods
  95. 95. SIMULATION BASED METHODS
  96. 96. PROPORTIONAL STOCHASTIC METHODS</li></ul>CONGESTED ASSIGNMENT<br /><ul><li>Concept given by wardrop's
  97. 97. Several methods
  98. 98. WARDROP’S EQUILIBRIUM.
  99. 99. HARD AND SOFT SPEED CHANGE METHODS.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  100. 100. DEFICIENCIES- CLASSIC TRNASPORT PLANNING <br />DEFICIENCIES- examples<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br />Travel demand is analysed by using different approaches.<br />No<br />Which is<br />Change in <br />Sequential <br />Total nos. of trips <br />between zones<br />So these major <br />impact is ignored<br />Change in cost <br />(after assignment)<br />model passes output from one step to the next as input.<br />impact<br />Bit Strange <br />approach<br />Influence <br />Travel is a derived demand<br />clear evidence that travel decisions are made simultaneously<br />People tend to move to<br /> other places, if they became <br />more accessible.<br />Assignment<br />results<br />Spatial data<br />minute base year error, can have consequences on the forecast data<br /><ul><li>Change in cost
  101. 101. Reduce in travel time
  102. 102. Reduce in distance</li></ul>Which may be due to <br />No attempt at understanding the bahaviour of the people<br />Severe consequences in <br />Forecasting future travel<br />demand<br />To match the figure <br />With observed travel <br />Demand data<br />These is used<br />Calibration of <br />No past data <br />Base year data<br />Base year data<br />as<br />We forecast something for which data is scare<br />Tends to overlook qualitative factors such as travel comfort.<br />ignores patterns in behaviour and uncertainty in behaviour.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  103. 103. BEHAVIOURAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>Initiate because of Criticism of conventional transport models.
  104. 104. By McFadden (1973) and Ben‐Akiva (1973)
  105. 105. Based on revealed and stated preferences.
  106. 106. Differ from classic models in three important ways:
  107. 107. Analysis is carried out at a DECISION‐MAKING LEVEL (person or household).
  108. 108. Derived from the behaviour of an INDIVIDUAL.
  109. 109. Completely based on DISAGGREGATED MODELLING approaches.</li></ul>PEOPLE DO NOT MOVE TO TRAVEL<br />ZONES DO NOT MOVE<br />BEAHVIOURAL/ ACTIVITY <br />BASED APPROACH<br />AGGREGATE <br />BASED APPROACH<br />DISAGGREGATE <br />BASED APPROACH<br />THEY MOVE TO PERFROM SOME ACTIVITY<br />PEOPLE DO<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  110. 110. AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE APPROACHES<br />FUTURE OF BEHAVIOUR MODELS<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>Main goal- get at the root of underlying travel behaviour
  111. 111. whether or not this leads to IMPROVED FORECASTING MODELS.
  112. 112. Primarily the focus of ACADEMIC AND RESEARCHERS.
  113. 113. criticised on number of factors- related to the process and outcome.
  114. 114. Behaviour is being modelled, which may be sometime NOT A TRUE AND EXHAUSTIVE STATEMENT of the relevant individual.
  115. 115. Eg.- peoples are always afraid to state their actual income.</li></ul>AGGREGATE MODELLING<br /><ul><li>Developed in 1950s
  116. 116. Developed due to huge infrastructure investment
  117. 117. estimated using GROUP OF OBSERVATIONS.
  118. 118. one observation is sometimes represent HUNDRED OF INDIVIDUALS.
  119. 119. Always criticised for their ACCURACY.
  120. 120. Not as expensive as disaggregate models </li></ul>DISAGGREGATE MODELS<br /><ul><li>Developed in 1970
  121. 121. Developed due to criticism of classic models.
  122. 122. estimated using INDIVIDUAL BEAHVIOUR.
  123. 123. Based on theories of individual beahviour.
  124. 124. LESS CHANCES OF ERRORS.
  125. 125. Require LARGE AMOUNT OF DATA.
  126. 126. EXPENSIVE to use.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  127. 127. LANDUSE TRANSPORT INTERACTIONS (LUTI)<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br /><ul><li>gained popularity since the 1980s.
  128. 128. development represents INCREASING CONNECTIONS between LUT.
  129. 129. 'LAND‐USE TRANSPORT FEEDBACK CYCLE‘- the concept
  130. 130. distribution of land uses, determines the locations of human activities
  131. 131. distribution of human activities requires transport system to overcome the distance
  132. 132. distribution of infrastructure in transport system creates opportunities for spatial interactions.
  133. 133. Main models to model LUTI- THE LOWRY MODEL (1964)
  134. 134. AIM- to allocate population to zones, depending on the place of work.
  135. 135. Basic concept- urban economy may be divided into two sectors:
  136. 136. a basic sector which produces goods for consumption outside a defined urban area
  137. 137. a non‐basic or service sector whose outputs are consumed within the city.
  138. 138. Lowry’s framework has been extended and is simplified by WILSON (1970)
  139. 139. suggested four types of models</li></ul>FUTURE OF LUTI<br /><ul><li>Predicting the impacts of land‐use transport policies is a difficult task.
  140. 140. LUTI incorporate the essential processes of spatial development, includes all types of land use
  141. 141. current LUTI models do not apply state‐of‐ the‐ art activity based modelling techniques but the traditional four‐step travel demand model.
  142. 142. need to move towards more behaviourally consistent and true dynamic modelling approaches</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  143. 143. OVERALL CONCLUSION<br />REVIEW PHASE-III<br />BEHAVIOURAL TRAVEL<br />DAMAND MODEL<br />Primarily the focus of <br />Academics & researchers <br />Works purely on<br />disaggregate approach<br />Analysis is carried out at<br />Decision level (individual)<br />Provide better result<br />Then classic model due<br />To its approach.<br />Expensive to use, as need <br />Much more detail data.<br />Demand high- skills<br />LANDUSE TRASNPORT <br />INTERACTIONS (LUTI)<br />Continuous development<br />Since their evolution<br />Incorporates the most<br />Essential process of <br />Spatial development.<br />Model the relation<br />Between landuse and<br />Transport system.<br />Mainly based on the human <br />theories. (both Landuse & <br />transport)<br />Tends to provide the more<br /> accurate & real World results<br />CLASSIC TRANSPORT<br />MODEL<br />Developed in application<br />Environment.<br />Works purely on<br />Aggregate approach<br />sequential process so <br />Overall weak framework<br />Sequential but when <br />Jointly analysed, not able <br />To provide good result<br />Always criticised for its<br />Accuracy in estimations.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  144. 144. DETERMINING SUITABILITY<br />ANALYSIS PHASE- I<br />NEED- For different countries, with more complex transportation network, land use patterns, not each and every transport model can be applied to their context<br />So various suitability indicators are been developed on these assumption <br /><ul><li>Models based on- SOCIETIES AND CULTURE of their context
  145. 145. might be (and are) DIFFERENT from other parts of the world
  146. 146. suitability depends upon various factors- A & D, TS & CS data, nature of models
  147. 147. ACCURACY OF THE ESTIMATES- dependent on the suitability of model.
  148. 148. initial models developed in pure aggregate manner-
  149. 149. AGGREGATED society and culture- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (western and European)
  150. 150. May not be suitable for DISAGGREGATED society and culture of DEVELOPING SOCIETY. </li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  151. 151. DETERMINING SUITABILITY<br />ANALYSIS PHASE- I<br />adoption of a particular perspective<br />question of how many options need to be considered<br />real bottleneck in data processing code, input the data, run the programs & interprets the output.<br />greater the level of detail, the more difficult the task<br />best scheme may be quite obvious, thus requiring less accurate modelling.<br />Suitability of any transport model, will going to remain the most important factor <br />always recommended that one should follow only that modelling approaches, which is best suited to the context<br />money, data, computer etc.<br />Time is most<br />crucial one.<br />Availability of past data<br />Time series/ cross sectional <br />Framework should be like<br />That able to use the available data <br />Data may be available, but the model<br /> should Able to incorporate data. <br />Heavy investment in infrastructure.<br />landuse & transport plan, should compliment each other.<br />data collection, surveys & detailed analysis would then become easier.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  152. 152. DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT<br />ANALYSIS PHASE- II<br />PRIMARY SURVEY- EXPERT OPINION<br />EXPERT OPINION 1<br /><ul><li>Classic transport model is used.
  153. 153. very naïve method to calculate the travel demand.
  154. 154. only occupational and educational trips, remain constant for the longer time.
  155. 155. Data availability- major problem
  156. 156. No central database maintaining authority, unlike in developed countries.</li></ul>EXPERT OPINION 2<br /><ul><li>Same view but some more
  157. 157. Issues in zoning & aggregation
  158. 158. Zones in India contain more then 1000- 1500 HH,
  159. 159. Aggregation based on that- serious errors- carried throughout the process
  160. 160. Unlike in western, where zoning is done at enumeration block level.
  161. 161. They are also able to maintain the data for the same.
  162. 162. In very much favour of LUTI.</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  163. 163. DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT<br />ANALYSIS PHASE- II<br />SECONDARY DATA- DPR FOR AHMEEDABAD METRO<br /><ul><li>Study area consists of
  164. 164. Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC)
  165. 165. Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (AUDA) ,
  166. 166. Gandhi Nagar Urban Development Authority (GUDA)
  167. 167. Total area- 1351 sq km.
  168. 168. Model used- conventional four step aggregate model
  169. 169. Study area population- 5,46,000 (2001)
  170. 170. Total traffic area zones (TAZ)- 197 186 internal/ 11 external
  171. 171. Average zone population- 2750approx.
  172. 172. Average Household per zone- 550 (HH size- 5)</li></ul>REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  173. 173. DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT<br />ANALYSIS PHASE- II<br />AGGREGATE/ DISAGGREGATE MODELLING APPROACHES<br />Indian context- Analysis based on aggregate zonal data<br />Aggregated data has got some serious errors<br />One observed beahviour, sometimes is the face of some 100 of people.<br />Western context- analysis based upon enumeration block level.<br />Acc. To some expert:<br />no such thing as a definitive approach appropriate to all situations.<br />TIME SERIES <br />TRAVEL DATA<br />Main goal of Model- to predict future estimations in travel demand, <br />For that strong database on past travel behaviour, (time series data) is needed.<br />In India- generally depends on cross- sectional data<br />Indian scenario- very poor system<br />No tradition to maintain the past travel data.<br />No governing authority to maintain the database.<br />Western context- central governing authority to maintain that data (free access to all) <br />ZONAL BASED <br />ANALYSIS<br />Strong database in developed countries<br />Able to collect and store data at enumeration block level<br />Not more then 100-150 HH in each block<br />TAZs in India formed out from election ward.<br />More then 500 HH in each zone.<br />Expensive & huge task to carry out travel survey.<br />Required skilled manpower<br />Aggregation is done at larger level<br />Required innovations to minimize the errors.<br />HETROGENEOUS SOCIETY<br />Western context- homogeneous in nature<br />Homogeneous society and culture.<br />So aggregated approaches can be applied.<br />in India-more disaggregated and heterogeneous societies & culture.<br />More behavioural changes, in every household.<br />Problem in applying the aggregate models<br />ZONAL LEVEL <br />DATA ACCURACY<br />Conventional model calculate trip length from trip zonal data, from centroid of one zone to the other zone.<br />average distance between zone<br />centroids has been calculated.<br />possible that size of zones may not be same<br />chance of errors increase significantly, as the zones are too large to have same entity,<br />or the average distance can’t be the same for the entire trip generated from the zones.<br />For heterogeneity and disaggregated Indian society,<br />aggregation at any level is<br />not going to give the accurate result for long term predictions.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  174. 174. CONCLUSION<br />CURRENT DATA NEED<br />suitability in India are pointing towards many things related to the past and present database<br />collection of good and reliable data.<br />need to be better sharing of data & should be accessible by all, like in western and European countries <br />NOMIS in European RITA in western context. <br />In census also, information on travel behaviour is collected but it is not shared.<br />strong need emerging for developing a central data base system, <br />Present initiatives by central government – on creating <br />National urban information system (NUIS)<br />can help better in catering the huge travel demand, generated by the complex transport system.<br />WHERE ARE WE AND WHERE ARE WE GOING???<br />discussion with the experts, suggests, that the conventional four‐ step aggregate model alone is NOT A GOOD CHOICE TO MODEL the complex travel demand.<br />As for the disaggregated Indian society and culture, the approach used is very much <br />AGGREGATED AND INSENSITIVE.<br />cannot be used for LONG TERM PROJECTIONS<br />INSENSITIVE to changes in any LAND USE PATTERN OR TRANSPORT PRICING,<br />BEHAVIOURAL MODELS/ LUTI- potential as a full or partial alternative to the conventional four step model<br />FUTURE OF TRANSPORT MODEL IN INDIA <br />has to be a combination of four stage and behavioural models supported by accurate data on individual and activities.<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  175. 175. THANK YOU…<br />any questions??<br />REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA<br />DISSERTATION 2009-10<br />
  176. 176. FUTURISTIC APPROACH <br />REVIEW PHASE<br />APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA <br />A CRITIQUE<br />DISSERTATION 2008-09<br />
  177. 177. FACTORS AFFECTING THE GROWTH IN DEMAND<br /><ul><li>Saturation of automobile ownership and use among wealthy people.
  178. 178. Aging population, tends to reduce per capita vehicle travel.
  179. 179. Rising fuel prices.
  180. 180. Increasing urbanization.
  181. 181. changing consumer housing preferences toward urban neighbourhoods.
  182. 182. Increasing urban traffic congestion.
  183. 183. rising costs of expanding urban highways.
  184. 184. Increasing public health and environmental concerns.
  185. 185. Increased emphasis on service quality.</li></ul>APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA <br />A CRITIQUE<br />DISSERTATION 2008-09<br />
  186. 186. CLASSIFICATION- ON BASIS OF TYPES<br />REVIEW PHASE<br /><ul><li>Classic transport models
  187. 187. Behavioural travel demand models
  188. 188. Landuse transport interactions models
  189. 189. each type of model has its particular strengths and weaknesses.</li></ul>APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA <br />A CRITIQUE<br />DISSERTATION 2008-09<br />

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