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Review of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in India

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Despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India. ...

Despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India.

The presentation includes the basic introduction of models with their application & pros & cons in Indian scenario.

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    Review  of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in India Review of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in India Presentation Transcript

    • REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      YOUGAL TAK IP 2108
      GUIDE: PROF. TALAT MUNSHI
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • METHODOLOGY
      Research problem/ question/ aim and objectives
      Role of transport models, its evolution, and their development
      History and evolution/ characteristics/ classification of models
      Introduction
      Understanding the basic role of transport system, travel demand and need to models them.
      Characteristics of transport demand/ supply
      Characteristics of transport problem
      Transport demand supply equilibrium
      Review Phase
      Transport demand supply gap- equilibrium.
      Classic transport model
      Characteristics of various models
      Transport models- in practice
      Behavioural transport model.
      Landuse transport interactions. (LUTI)
      Identification of various indicators to determine suitability in any context.
      Determining suitability
      Identification of models used in India and determining suitability
      Expert opinion- Conversation with experts from different transportation organization and capturing their opinion about model being used.
      Primary Survey
      Data collection & analysis
      Analysis
      Literature review of various documents (reports and research papers) on the same.
      Secondary Data
      model identification in Indian context
      role of transport model being used in India and its suitability in Indian context.
      Checking suitability
      Future developments
      Where are we and where are we going???
      Conclusion
      APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA
      A CRITIQUE
      DISSERTATION 2008-09
      IS THE TRANSPORT MODEL BEING USED IN INDIA IS SUITABLE IN INDIAN CONTEXT OR NOT???
    • TRANSPORT MODEL
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      +
      MODEL
      TRANSPORT
      movement of people and goods
      between relatively distant
      geographical locations, with any
      ‘activity’
      to perform, or for any
      purpose and any duration.
      can be defined as a
      Simplified representation
      of a part of the real world.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRANSPORT SYSTEM
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      ACTIVITY
      SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION
      With some activity to perform for any given purpose, by some mode,
      it give birth to
      COMPLEX TRANSPORT SYSTEM.
      Working trip
      school trip
      Recreational trip
      social trip
      MODES
      MODE IS ALWAYS NEEDED TO PERFORM ANY ACTIVITY
      Air
      Rail
      cable
      Road
      water
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRANSPORT SYSTEM
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      • basic component of an area’s social, economic and physical structure.
      • Design and performance- provides opportunities for mobility
      • Good transport system- increase mobility and give rise to economic activities.
      • also give rise to the DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRANSPORT DEMAND- INTRODUCTION
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      • primarily generated mainly due to
      • purpose, and to
      • perform some activity.
      • Can be by passengers or firms moving freight.
      Why to model transport demand???....
      • designed to evaluate Transport Demands
      • use this information to predict roadway traffic volumes and impacts such as congestion and pollution emissions
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • RESEARCH PROBLEM
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      • ongoing debate in Anglo‐ American context on suitability in present context.
      • In developing nations like India, transport studies are based on models borrowed from Anglo‐ American context,
      • rate of urbanisation & development is contextual and very different in developing world.
      • Thus suitability of modelling approach is also likely to be different.
      • despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      TO REVIEW THE METHODS USED TO MODEL TRANSPORT DEMAND
      AND
      APPLICABILITY OF THESE MODELS IN INDIAN CONTEXT.
      sub objective
      • To Understand the need of transport models.
      • To critically review and asses methods that has been used
      • To determine the steps that can improve the method used...If necessary
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • INTRODUCTION- TRANSPORT MODEL
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      • 1ST COMPREHENSIVE URBAN TRANSPORT STUDIEs- in USA (1953) and in Chicago (1956).
      • Results of HEAVY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT in developments.
      • begins with the DATA COLLECTION on current traffic.
      • Traffic data together with data on population, employment, trip rates, travel costs, etc., is used to develop a TRAFFIC DEMAND MODEL.
      • Advances in COMPUTING, results in very technical and sophisticated methods
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • HISTORY AND EVOLUTION
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      1990s
      developments in response to environmental pollution, and policy shifts towards travel demand management.
      1980s– 1990s
      1970 – 1980s
      developments in response to criticisms of static, trip-based analysis.
      developments in response to criticisms of aggregate methods.
      1950s– 1960s
      developments in response to huge investment in highway construction and advances in computing.
      (source: bureau of transport policy, Australia)
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • CHARACTERISTICS- TRANSPORT MODELS
      REVIEW PHASE-I
      • Should have the capability of predicting long-term travel demand (20-30 years).
      • Be capable of explaining long-term changes in land use patterns.
      • Permit close interaction between land use and transport.
      • Be able to explain competition between various transport modes.
      • for better results and output, one should have to be aware of positive and negatives of the model.
      • May be not all models are able to meet all these demand, but some models may fulfill the nearest objectives.
      (source: D. Ortuzar, modelling transport)
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRANSPORT PROBLEMS- DEMNAD/ SUPPLY GAP
      REVIEW PHASE-II
      • more widespread and severe than ever.
      • both in industrialized and developing countries.
      • Increase in traffic and transport demand.
      • Congestion, delays , accidents and environment problems.
      ECONOMIC GROWTH
      In modes and regions
      generated levels of demand
      CAPACITY OF TRANSPORT
      resulted in
      Exceeding in
      DEMAND SIDE
      SUPPLY SIDE
      LONG PERIODS OF UNDER-INVESTMENT
      FRAGILE SUPPLY SYSTEMS
      (break down under above average conditions)
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • CHARACTERISTICS- TRANSPORT DEMAND
      CHARACTERISTICS- TRANSPORT SUPPLY
      REVIEW PHASE-II
      Widens the
      Restricts
      Specific peak
      Important
      May take
      important
      Economic
      Travel behaviour/ pattern
      • Good transport system
      provision of transport infrastructure
      From supply point of view
      opportunities
      limits
      justification
      periods
      Political role
      5-15 yrs
      Adjusted
      Avoid unnecessary early investment
      provision of transport infrastructure
      • Heavily congested/ poorly connected
      Economic/ social development
      To demand
      SUPPLY- IMPORTANT POLITICAL ROLE
      DEMAND- OVER SPACE
      investment in Transport infrastructure
      Safe bet
      Concentration of population and economic activity
      High quality MRTS
      Very difficult
      To prove the investment wrong or unnecessary
      Would not be viable
      In areas with less economic and habitable activity
      SUPPLY- LUMPY/ TAKES A LONG TIME
      DEMAND- OVER TIME
      Planning to full
      implementation
      Usually large projects
      Concentration on few hours of the day
      Cope well
      Breaks down
      May be scope
      during peak periods
      Of providing a gradual build up over the time
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • CLASSIC FOUR- STEP AGGREGATE TRANSPORT MODEL
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
      • Possible to predict a future land‐use pattern INDEPENDENTLY OF CHANGES to the transport system.
      • Possible to predict travel behaviour based on AVERAGED ZONAL DATA.
      • Relationships between household characteristics and travel behaviour remain steady over long periods of time.
      • Travel decisions were made principally on the minimization of travel time and cost.
      BASIC WORKING CONCEPT
      • the area is divided into a set of trip generating and trip-attracting zones called traffic analysis zones (TAZs) .
      • Travel demand is estimated using the sequential four-step process.
      • The system is characterised as being closed as well as unidirectional.
      • does not allow any feedback from travel costs into the trip generation process.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • CHARACTERISTICS- ZONING DESIGN
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      ZONING SYSTEM- used to aggregate the individual households into manageable chunks for modeling purposes
      • ZONING SIZE
      must be such that it allow minimum aggregation errors.
      • ZONING SYSTEM MUST BE COMPATIBLE-
      with administrative divisions, particularly census zones.
      with cordons and screen lines and with those of previous zoning systems.
      • ZONES SHOULD BE AS HOMOGENEOUS
      as possible in their land use and or population composition
      • SHAPE OF THE ZONES
      should allow an easy determination of their centroid connectors.
      • NOT TO BE OF EQUAL SIZE
      if anything, they could be of similar dimensions in travel time units.
      Map showing 197 traffic zones of the study area which includes AMC, AUDA and Gandhinagar.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRIP GENERATION
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • AIM- to predict the number of trips entering and leaving each zone.
      • Two methods been used for modelling generation
      • GROWTH METHOD
      • CROSS CLASSIFICATION OR CATEGORY ANALYSIS
      CATEGORY ANALYSIS (1960)
      • category analysis in UK / cross-classification in USA.
      • Basic socio- economic variables used:
      CAR OWNERSHIP HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
      • Basic assumptions- trip generation rates are relatively stable over time for certain household.
      DISADVANTAGES/ DRAWBACKS
      • large samples are required (independent of zoning) - or cell values will vary in reliability.
      GROWTH METHOD
      • used to predict the future number of external trips to an area.
      • there are no simple ways to predict them.
      • problems with these methods in estimation of the growth method F.
      • errors here are carried through the entire process.
      INELASTICITY IN TRIP GENERATION
      • CHANGES TO THE NETWORK assumed to have no effects on trip productions and attractions.
      • Eg.- extension of underground line to a location which had no service previously would not generate more trips between that zone and the rest.
      • neglects all the INTERNAL‐ TO‐ INTERNAL TRIPS.
      • NON MOTORIZED TRIPS are not included in calculating the overall trip generation.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRIP DISTRIBUTION
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • AIM- to distribute the total number of trips originating in each zone among all possible destination zones available.
      • INPUT
      • set of zonal trip productions and attractions (obtain in TG).
      • travel time between zones- third variable.
      • methods used for modelling distribution
      GROWTH METHOD GRAVITY MODELS ENTROPY- MAXIMISING MODELS
      GROWTH METHOD
      • Procedure is useful, when an old distribution is known.
      • Takes a old distribution pattern and updates this to new and actual distribution pattern.
      • old pattern is manipulated until the trip generations constraints are met.
      • Manipulation is called the FURNESS METHOD.
      ENTROPY MAXIMISING METHOD
      • Derived by Wilson in 1970.
      • Applied where the notion of uncertainty is involved in a system which are subject of random motion.
      ORIGIN (PRODUCTION) CONSTRAINED
      DESTINATION (ATTRACTION) CONSTRAINED
      UNCONSTRAINED
      GRAVITY METHOD
      • originally generated from an analogy with Newton’s gravitational law.
      • Forecasting future trip patterns when important changes in network takes place.
      • Estimates trips for each cell, without directly using the observed trip pattern.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • MODAL SPLIT
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • One of the most important modeling task.
      • allocation or ‘distribution’ of trips between the various modes available.
      • The factors influencing mode choice- classifies into 3 groups
      • CHARACTERISTICS OF TRIP MAKER (family income, nos. of cars, density)
      • CHARACTERISTICS OF JOURNEY (trip distance, time of the day)
      • CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSPORT FACILITY (riding time, excess time)
      • Mode choice models
      • AGGREGATED- if based on zonal data.
      • DISAGGREGATED - if based on household and/ or individual data.
      • types of modal-split model
      TRIP-END MODAL SPLIT MODELS TRIP-INTERCHANGE MODAL SPLIT MODELS
      • Operates immediately after the trip generation.
      • split total travel demand for each zone by transport mode.
      • operates at the stage between trip distribution and route assignment,
      • splitting of intra- and inter-zonal trips among available modes.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRIP ASSIGNMENT
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION- to the routes of an urban transport network.
      • CONGESTED SITUATION- traffic spread to the alternative routes
      • To equalize the travel time or costs for using these routes.
      • Basic inputs-
      • peak hour matrix in congested areas
      • network namely links , including speed‐flow curves.
      ALL- OR- NOTHING ASSIGNMENT
      • simplest route choice and assignment method
      Basic assumption-
      • there are no congestion effects,
      • that all drivers consider the same attributes for route choice
      • that they perceive and weigh them in the same way.
      ROUTE CHOICE
      • choosing the route which offers the least perceived costs.
      Factors- influence the choice of route
      • JOURNEY TIME MONETARY COST (FUEL AND OTHERS) distance
      • congestion and queues type of road (motor way, secondary road)
      • Signposting road works habit.
      TREE BUILDING
      • an important stage in any assignment method
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • TRIP ASSIGNMENT- VARIOUS MODELS
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      STOCHASTIC METHODS
      • Consider the second- best routes.
      • GENERATES ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS- large number of second- best routes between each O-D pair
      • Several methods
      • SIMULATION BASED METHODS
      • PROPORTIONAL STOCHASTIC METHODS
      CONGESTED ASSIGNMENT
      • Concept given by wardrop's
      • Several methods
      • WARDROP’S EQUILIBRIUM.
      • HARD AND SOFT SPEED CHANGE METHODS.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • DEFICIENCIES- CLASSIC TRNASPORT PLANNING
      DEFICIENCIES- examples
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      Travel demand is analysed by using different approaches.
      No
      Which is
      Change in
      Sequential
      Total nos. of trips
      between zones
      So these major
      impact is ignored
      Change in cost
      (after assignment)
      model passes output from one step to the next as input.
      impact
      Bit Strange
      approach
      Influence
      Travel is a derived demand
      clear evidence that travel decisions are made simultaneously
      People tend to move to
      other places, if they became
      more accessible.
      Assignment
      results
      Spatial data
      minute base year error, can have consequences on the forecast data
      • Change in cost
      • Reduce in travel time
      • Reduce in distance
      Which may be due to
      No attempt at understanding the bahaviour of the people
      Severe consequences in
      Forecasting future travel
      demand
      To match the figure
      With observed travel
      Demand data
      These is used
      Calibration of
      No past data
      Base year data
      Base year data
      as
      We forecast something for which data is scare
      Tends to overlook qualitative factors such as travel comfort.
      ignores patterns in behaviour and uncertainty in behaviour.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • BEHAVIOURAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • Initiate because of Criticism of conventional transport models.
      • By McFadden (1973) and Ben‐Akiva (1973)
      • Based on revealed and stated preferences.
      • Differ from classic models in three important ways:
      • Analysis is carried out at a DECISION‐MAKING LEVEL (person or household).
      • Derived from the behaviour of an INDIVIDUAL.
      • Completely based on DISAGGREGATED MODELLING approaches.
      PEOPLE DO NOT MOVE TO TRAVEL
      ZONES DO NOT MOVE
      BEAHVIOURAL/ ACTIVITY
      BASED APPROACH
      AGGREGATE
      BASED APPROACH
      DISAGGREGATE
      BASED APPROACH
      THEY MOVE TO PERFROM SOME ACTIVITY
      PEOPLE DO
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE APPROACHES
      FUTURE OF BEHAVIOUR MODELS
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • Main goal- get at the root of underlying travel behaviour
      • whether or not this leads to IMPROVED FORECASTING MODELS.
      • Primarily the focus of ACADEMIC AND RESEARCHERS.
      • criticised on number of factors- related to the process and outcome.
      • Behaviour is being modelled, which may be sometime NOT A TRUE AND EXHAUSTIVE STATEMENT of the relevant individual.
      • Eg.- peoples are always afraid to state their actual income.
      AGGREGATE MODELLING
      • Developed in 1950s
      • Developed due to huge infrastructure investment
      • estimated using GROUP OF OBSERVATIONS.
      • one observation is sometimes represent HUNDRED OF INDIVIDUALS.
      • Always criticised for their ACCURACY.
      • Not as expensive as disaggregate models
      DISAGGREGATE MODELS
      • Developed in 1970
      • Developed due to criticism of classic models.
      • estimated using INDIVIDUAL BEAHVIOUR.
      • Based on theories of individual beahviour.
      • LESS CHANCES OF ERRORS.
      • Require LARGE AMOUNT OF DATA.
      • EXPENSIVE to use.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • LANDUSE TRANSPORT INTERACTIONS (LUTI)
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      • gained popularity since the 1980s.
      • development represents INCREASING CONNECTIONS between LUT.
      • 'LAND‐USE TRANSPORT FEEDBACK CYCLE‘- the concept
      • distribution of land uses, determines the locations of human activities
      • distribution of human activities requires transport system to overcome the distance
      • distribution of infrastructure in transport system creates opportunities for spatial interactions.
      • Main models to model LUTI- THE LOWRY MODEL (1964)
      • AIM- to allocate population to zones, depending on the place of work.
      • Basic concept- urban economy may be divided into two sectors:
      • a basic sector which produces goods for consumption outside a defined urban area
      • a non‐basic or service sector whose outputs are consumed within the city.
      • Lowry’s framework has been extended and is simplified by WILSON (1970)
      • suggested four types of models
      FUTURE OF LUTI
      • Predicting the impacts of land‐use transport policies is a difficult task.
      • LUTI incorporate the essential processes of spatial development, includes all types of land use
      • current LUTI models do not apply state‐of‐ the‐ art activity based modelling techniques but the traditional four‐step travel demand model.
      • need to move towards more behaviourally consistent and true dynamic modelling approaches
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • OVERALL CONCLUSION
      REVIEW PHASE-III
      BEHAVIOURAL TRAVEL
      DAMAND MODEL
      Primarily the focus of
      Academics & researchers
      Works purely on
      disaggregate approach
      Analysis is carried out at
      Decision level (individual)
      Provide better result
      Then classic model due
      To its approach.
      Expensive to use, as need
      Much more detail data.
      Demand high- skills
      LANDUSE TRASNPORT
      INTERACTIONS (LUTI)
      Continuous development
      Since their evolution
      Incorporates the most
      Essential process of
      Spatial development.
      Model the relation
      Between landuse and
      Transport system.
      Mainly based on the human
      theories. (both Landuse &
      transport)
      Tends to provide the more
      accurate & real World results
      CLASSIC TRANSPORT
      MODEL
      Developed in application
      Environment.
      Works purely on
      Aggregate approach
      sequential process so
      Overall weak framework
      Sequential but when
      Jointly analysed, not able
      To provide good result
      Always criticised for its
      Accuracy in estimations.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • DETERMINING SUITABILITY
      ANALYSIS PHASE- I
      NEED- For different countries, with more complex transportation network, land use patterns, not each and every transport model can be applied to their context
      So various suitability indicators are been developed on these assumption
      • Models based on- SOCIETIES AND CULTURE of their context
      • might be (and are) DIFFERENT from other parts of the world
      • suitability depends upon various factors- A & D, TS & CS data, nature of models
      • ACCURACY OF THE ESTIMATES- dependent on the suitability of model.
      • initial models developed in pure aggregate manner-
      • AGGREGATED society and culture- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (western and European)
      • May not be suitable for DISAGGREGATED society and culture of DEVELOPING SOCIETY.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • DETERMINING SUITABILITY
      ANALYSIS PHASE- I
      adoption of a particular perspective
      question of how many options need to be considered
      real bottleneck in data processing code, input the data, run the programs & interprets the output.
      greater the level of detail, the more difficult the task
      best scheme may be quite obvious, thus requiring less accurate modelling.
      Suitability of any transport model, will going to remain the most important factor
      always recommended that one should follow only that modelling approaches, which is best suited to the context
      money, data, computer etc.
      Time is most
      crucial one.
      Availability of past data
      Time series/ cross sectional
      Framework should be like
      That able to use the available data
      Data may be available, but the model
      should Able to incorporate data.
      Heavy investment in infrastructure.
      landuse & transport plan, should compliment each other.
      data collection, surveys & detailed analysis would then become easier.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT
      ANALYSIS PHASE- II
      PRIMARY SURVEY- EXPERT OPINION
      EXPERT OPINION 1
      • Classic transport model is used.
      • very naïve method to calculate the travel demand.
      • only occupational and educational trips, remain constant for the longer time.
      • Data availability- major problem
      • No central database maintaining authority, unlike in developed countries.
      EXPERT OPINION 2
      • Same view but some more
      • Issues in zoning & aggregation
      • Zones in India contain more then 1000- 1500 HH,
      • Aggregation based on that- serious errors- carried throughout the process
      • Unlike in western, where zoning is done at enumeration block level.
      • They are also able to maintain the data for the same.
      • In very much favour of LUTI.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT
      ANALYSIS PHASE- II
      SECONDARY DATA- DPR FOR AHMEEDABAD METRO
      • Study area consists of
      • Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC)
      • Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (AUDA) ,
      • Gandhi Nagar Urban Development Authority (GUDA)
      • Total area- 1351 sq km.
      • Model used- conventional four step aggregate model
      • Study area population- 5,46,000 (2001)
      • Total traffic area zones (TAZ)- 197 186 internal/ 11 external
      • Average zone population- 2750approx.
      • Average Household per zone- 550 (HH size- 5)
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT
      ANALYSIS PHASE- II
      AGGREGATE/ DISAGGREGATE MODELLING APPROACHES
      Indian context- Analysis based on aggregate zonal data
      Aggregated data has got some serious errors
      One observed beahviour, sometimes is the face of some 100 of people.
      Western context- analysis based upon enumeration block level.
      Acc. To some expert:
      no such thing as a definitive approach appropriate to all situations.
      TIME SERIES
      TRAVEL DATA
      Main goal of Model- to predict future estimations in travel demand,
      For that strong database on past travel behaviour, (time series data) is needed.
      In India- generally depends on cross- sectional data
      Indian scenario- very poor system
      No tradition to maintain the past travel data.
      No governing authority to maintain the database.
      Western context- central governing authority to maintain that data (free access to all)
      ZONAL BASED
      ANALYSIS
      Strong database in developed countries
      Able to collect and store data at enumeration block level
      Not more then 100-150 HH in each block
      TAZs in India formed out from election ward.
      More then 500 HH in each zone.
      Expensive & huge task to carry out travel survey.
      Required skilled manpower
      Aggregation is done at larger level
      Required innovations to minimize the errors.
      HETROGENEOUS SOCIETY
      Western context- homogeneous in nature
      Homogeneous society and culture.
      So aggregated approaches can be applied.
      in India-more disaggregated and heterogeneous societies & culture.
      More behavioural changes, in every household.
      Problem in applying the aggregate models
      ZONAL LEVEL
      DATA ACCURACY
      Conventional model calculate trip length from trip zonal data, from centroid of one zone to the other zone.
      average distance between zone
      centroids has been calculated.
      possible that size of zones may not be same
      chance of errors increase significantly, as the zones are too large to have same entity,
      or the average distance can’t be the same for the entire trip generated from the zones.
      For heterogeneity and disaggregated Indian society,
      aggregation at any level is
      not going to give the accurate result for long term predictions.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • CONCLUSION
      CURRENT DATA NEED
      suitability in India are pointing towards many things related to the past and present database
      collection of good and reliable data.
      need to be better sharing of data & should be accessible by all, like in western and European countries
      NOMIS in European RITA in western context.
      In census also, information on travel behaviour is collected but it is not shared.
      strong need emerging for developing a central data base system,
      Present initiatives by central government – on creating
      National urban information system (NUIS)
      can help better in catering the huge travel demand, generated by the complex transport system.
      WHERE ARE WE AND WHERE ARE WE GOING???
      discussion with the experts, suggests, that the conventional four‐ step aggregate model alone is NOT A GOOD CHOICE TO MODEL the complex travel demand.
      As for the disaggregated Indian society and culture, the approach used is very much
      AGGREGATED AND INSENSITIVE.
      cannot be used for LONG TERM PROJECTIONS
      INSENSITIVE to changes in any LAND USE PATTERN OR TRANSPORT PRICING,
      BEHAVIOURAL MODELS/ LUTI- potential as a full or partial alternative to the conventional four step model
      FUTURE OF TRANSPORT MODEL IN INDIA
      has to be a combination of four stage and behavioural models supported by accurate data on individual and activities.
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • THANK YOU…
      any questions??
      REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA
      DISSERTATION 2009-10
    • FUTURISTIC APPROACH
      REVIEW PHASE
      APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA
      A CRITIQUE
      DISSERTATION 2008-09
    • FACTORS AFFECTING THE GROWTH IN DEMAND
      • Saturation of automobile ownership and use among wealthy people.
      • Aging population, tends to reduce per capita vehicle travel.
      • Rising fuel prices.
      • Increasing urbanization.
      • changing consumer housing preferences toward urban neighbourhoods.
      • Increasing urban traffic congestion.
      • rising costs of expanding urban highways.
      • Increasing public health and environmental concerns.
      • Increased emphasis on service quality.
      APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA
      A CRITIQUE
      DISSERTATION 2008-09
    • CLASSIFICATION- ON BASIS OF TYPES
      REVIEW PHASE
      • Classic transport models
      • Behavioural travel demand models
      • Landuse transport interactions models
      • each type of model has its particular strengths and weaknesses.
      APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA
      A CRITIQUE
      DISSERTATION 2008-09