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Financial crises

Financial crises






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    Financial crises Financial crises Presentation Transcript

    • Financial crises The Global Financial Crisis
    • List of economic crises and depressions. 3rd century • Crisis of the Third Century 14th century • 14th century banking crisis (the crash of the Peruzzi and the Bardi family Compagnia dei Bardi in 1345). 17th century • Tulip mania (1637)
    • 18th century • South Sea Bubble (1720) • Crisis of 1772 • Panic of 1792 • Panic of 1796-1797
    • 19th century • Post-Napoleonic depression • Danish state bankruptcy of 1813 • Panic of 1819, a U.S. recession with bank failures; culmination of U.S.'s first boom-to-bust economic cycle • Panic of 1825, a pervasive British recession in which many banks failed, nearly including the Bank of England • Panic of 1837, a U.S. recession with bank failures, followed by a 5-year depression • Panic of 1847 • Panic of 1857, a U.S. recession with bank failures • Panic of 1866 • Long Depression (1873–1896) – Panic of 1873, a US recession with bank failures, followed by a four-year depression – Panic of 1884 – Panic of 1890 – Panic of 1893, a US recession with bank failures – Australian banking crisis of 1893
    • 20th century • Panic of 1907, a U.S. economic recession with bank failures • Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Great Depression (1929–1939) the worst depression of modern history • OPEC oil price shock • Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 in the UK • Japanese asset price bubble (1986–2003) • Bank stock crisis (Israel 1983) • Black Monday (1987) • Savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s in the U.S. • 1991 India economic crisis • Finnish banking crisis (1990s) • Swedish banking crisis (1990s) • 1994 economic crisis in Mexico • 1997 Asian financial crisis • 1998 Russian financial crisis • Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)
    • 21st century • Late-2000s Financial Crisis or the Late-2000s recession, including: – 2000s energy crisis – Subprime mortgage crisis – United States housing bubble and United States housing market correction – 2008–2012 Icelandic financial crisis – 2008–2010 Irish banking crisis – Russian financial crisis of 2008–2009 – Automotive industry crisis of 2008–2010 – European sovereign debt crisis
    • When the financial system is in crisis, • Banks reduce lending • Companies often face bankruptcy • Unemployment rises For Example, • financial crisis of 2008–2009.
    • Financial crisis of 2008–2009 IMPACT • More than $4.1 trillion in losses • Unemployment rates that climbed to more than 10 percent in the United States and higher elsewhere • Increased poverty. • Stock markets around the world crashed. • 8,509.56, 27 • • • • • • October 2008 - The SENSEX hit an intra-day low of 7,697.39, before closing at 8,509.56,[5] for its lowest close since 14 November 2005 American investors lost roughly 40 percent of the value of their savings. Housing prices plummeted from their record highs in 2006. Consumers reduced their spending. Manufacturing declined. Global trade diminished. Countries adopted protectionist measures. Many turning their attention inward to focus on problems caused by the financial crisis.
    • • The European Union struggled over how much to shore up or bail out banks and nations using the euro currency. • Furthermore, the financial crisis weakened some countries more than others, thereby engendering significant shifts of power among countries, especially between the United States and China.
    • Causes of the Global Financial Crisis • The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 was a precursor to the financial crisis of 2008–2009. “Hasty and imprudent financial liberalization, almost always under foreign pressure, allowing free international flows of short-term capital without adequate attention to the potentially potent downside of such globalization.” But the Asian crisis was part of larger global developments, many of which were driven by the United States.
    • • Deregulation of financial markets • Sophisticated financial innovations linked to rapid changes in computer technologies • Excessive executive compensation • Low interest rates • Subprime loans, especially for mortgages • Speculation in general, with an emphasis on speculation in housing.
    • • Rising inflation in the United States prompted foreigners to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar as the leading currency and to seek security by purchasing gold. • An outgrowth of the Great Depression, rising inflation, which also occurred following rapid and dramatic increases in oil prices in 1973–1974, contributed to the erosion of confidence in regulations designed during the Great Depression.
    • Deregulation of Financial Markets • In response, President Richard Nixon unlinked the dollar from gold and adopted a regimen of floating interest rates. • This created greater volatility in the financial system as well as increased opportunities to earn higher interest rates.
    • • Between 1974 and 1980, many regulations were removed. • For example, in 1980, commercial banks and savings and loans institutions were permitted to determine their own interest rates on deposits and loans, thereby spurring greater competition. • Many smaller banks were acquired by larger, more distant banks. The local bank was fast becoming an outdated institution.7
    • • Insistence on free movement of capital across borders. • Separating commercial and investment banking • Decreased regulatory enforcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission • Allowing banks to measure their own riskiness • Failure to update regulations to keep up with the tremendous pace of financial innovations.
    • Financial Innovations • American banks adopted a global outlook that freed them from limiting their operations to the United States. • Many were moving their activities offshore to places such as the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. Financial deregulation in the United States was now inseparable from the globalization of trade and financial services
    • • Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which prohibited commercial banks from underwriting or marketing securities. • The rapid growth of capital flows across national borders and the increasing power of investment bankers eventually led to the demise of the GlassSteagall Act in 1999.
    • • Unquestioning faith in the wisdom of markets contributed to escalating demands for and acceptance of less regulation. • In essence, federal agencies designed to regulate banking became less effective. • There was a general loss of control at all levels, which led to exponential risk taking at many companies, largely hidden from public scrutiny. • Violations of financial regulations went largely unpunished.
    • Financial Innovations • As the global financial crisis unfolded, it was obvious that many of those in the banking and investment communities did not fully comprehend how the financial system they created functioned, or the scope and severity of the crisis.
    • • Financial innovations, with instantaneous global impacts due to technologies that made electronic transactions faster and less expensive, raced ahead of regulations. Complex financial products created in one financial center involved assets in another and were sold to investors in a third financial market.
    • • • • • • • Securitization Derivatives credit default Swaps collateralized debt Obligations hedge funds arbitrage
    • Securitization • Securitization is a sophisticated process of financial engineering that allows global investment to be spread out and separated into multiple income streams to reduce risk. It involves bundling loans into securities and selling them to investors.
    • Subprime Loan' • A type of loan that is offered at a rate above prime to individuals who do not qualify for prime rate loans. • Quite often, subprime borrowers are often turned away from traditional lenders because of their low credit ratings or other factors that suggest that they have a reasonable chance of defaulting on the debt repayment. • Example - If the loan is meant to pay off a higher interest debt (such as credit card debt) and the borrower has no other means for payment.
    • • This led to unprecedented growth in house prices. It also resulted in high default rates and the housing crisis. • Applicants for mortgages were not carefully examined and were encouraged to obtain subprime loans.
    • Credit default swaps • Parties involved in a credit default swap agreed that one would pay the other if a particular borrower, a third party, could not repay its loans. • Credit default swaps were used to transfer credit risks away from banks. A major problem with credit default swaps was the lack of transparency. • They were also unregulated. Ultimately, credit default swaps created confusion and encouraged excessive risk taking. It was difficult to determine where the risk ended up. • Designed to pass on risks, loans were packaged as securities.
    • Executive Compensation • Most companies rewarded short-term performance without much regard for market fundamentals and long-term earnings. • Executives were given stock options, which they could manipulate to earn more money.
    • • Merged with or acquired higher-growth companies and, in many cases, Committed accounting fraud. • This fraud led to the bankruptcy of companies such as Enron, Global Crossing, and WorldCom. • Many executives received long prison sentences.
    • Low Interest Rates • An oversupply of money created unprecedented leve of liquidity and historically low interest rates. • The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan als reduced interest rates to record lows. • They were able to borrow from developing countries that were accumulating huge reserves from the phenomenal growth of global trade.
    • Global Responses to the Financial Crisis • America’s Response United States has led efforts to nationalize its financial and some aspects of its manufacturing sectors to an unprecedented degree. • Americans withdrew $150 billion from money market funds
    • • It bought $600 billion in long-term Treasury bonds to push down long term interest rates • That depreciated the value of the dollar, thereby making American exports less expensive and raising the cost of imports.
    • European Responses • Governments implemented austerity programs that cut government budget deficits and raised the minimum retirement age. • Students in Britain protested the government’s decision to increase college tuition and fees.
    • China’s Response • China regulates its financial institutions, has more than $2 trillion in reserves, and continues to have economic growth rates in excess of 7 percent, and the Chinese save more than 40 percent of their income. • China is using its $600 billion economic stimulus package to improve its infrastructure, to help its companies to become more competitive domestically and globally, and to enhance research and development.
    • • China is also acquiring European and American companies in the automotive, textile, food, energy, machinery, e lectronics, and environmental protection sectors. One of the most visible acquisitions is the Hummer from General Motors.
    • Financial Regulations • Efforts to enact international banking regulations began with the creation of the Bank for International Settlements, based in Basel, Switzerland. • In 2010, an agreement known as Basel 3 created new international rules for banks. They raised the amount capital lenders are required to have as a cushion against unexpected financial losses to 7 percent of their capital.
    • • The failures of financial institutions in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere demonstrate that individual countries’ unwillingness or inability to supervise their financial sectors was at the heart of the problem. • Consequently, domestic regulatory reforms are likely to be more effective than global regulations