• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
5388
 

5388

on

  • 1,580 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,580
Views on SlideShare
200
Embed Views
1,380

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

1 Embed 1,380

http://yo9889.pixnet.net 1380

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    5388 5388 Document Transcript

    • f 3Q13 (5388.TW/5388 TT) 4Q13 3Q13 QoQ (%) 2014 EBIT NT$42.6 ( ) (%) (%) (%) EBIT 1 2 886.2.2181.8725 3 vincent.liao@kgi.com 1 2 886.2.2181.8770 3 james.lin@kgi.com 3Q13 16.4%(2Q13 (0.4) 3.5 12.7 (105.0) (17.5) (17.5) 0.6 ppts 0.6 ppts (0.9) ppts 5,073 830 276 (4) 228 1.15 16.4 5.5 4.5 4Q13F YoY (%) (%) (8.4) 1.3 (7.9) (52.8) (5.7) (9.0) 1.6 ppts 0.0 ppts 0.1 ppts 5,100 801 296 (1) 241 1.22 15.7 5.8 4.7 QoQ (%) (0.5) 3.7 (6.5) 295.3 (5.6) (5.2) 0.7 ppts (0.4) ppts (0.2) ppts 5,080 813 249 7 211 1.07 16.0 4.9 4.2 3Q13 (QoQ-7.3% 16% YoY-5.7%) 2.28 IAD EPS 1.15 ) 4Q13 4Q13 4Q13 EPS 1.07 YoY+69.5%) 1Q14( (QoQ-17.5% 2.3% 50.8 (QoQ+0.1% YoY+19%) 3Q13 (QoQ-7.3% 16% PON EPS 1.07 4Q13 YoY+69.5%) 4Q13 2014 2.1 ( 4Q13 (QoQ-7.3% YoY+75.6%) EPS 1.07 19.88 CB EPS 23 ) ) 2014 IP Surveillance 11.7 / 9.5 21.7% 2014 EPS 4.48 53.8 3Q13 ( 12 46.6 16.4%(2Q13 24% 2014 ) IAD PON IP Surveillance 15.7%) small cell 5.6% YoY-5.7%) 2.28 (QoQ-0.4% 16.4%(2Q13 IP Surveillance Home gateway convergence 50.7 YoY-8.4%) 2014 (QoQ-17.5% EPS 1.15 3Q13 SMB 15.7%) 20% 15% 50% 2014 24% 4.5 1.7 3.5 ( 0.8 3.1 5.6% 6.23 0.7 2.1 YoY-2% 1.7 1.2 1.3 0.6 2.4 1.6 EPS 3.13 11 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 10.4 2.9 10.4 3.2 1.0 0.0 12.5 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.3 2011 2012 2013F 2014F Fixed mobile convergence Home router SMB products 2013 3.0 4.8 2010 http://research.kgi.com YoY 2014 ) 1Q-3Q13 10% 21.7% Home gateway (QoQ-17.5% YoY-5.7%) EPS 1.15 11% Fixed-mobile Smart home&surveillance 2.28 19.88 ( 24% 2013/2014 3.63/4.48 16% 3Q13 IP Surveillance 21.7% 19.0 21.9 21.6 (115.6) 75.6 69.5 0.4 ppts 0.1 ppts 1.3 ppts 4Q13 15.7%) 5.6% YoY (%) 0.1 (2.1) (10.0) (245.7) (7.3) (7.3) (0.4) ppts (0.6) ppts (0.3) ppts 13 Home Gateway Connectivity Smart Home control and IP surveillance 1
    • f 3Q13 4Q13 2013 6.6% 2014 2014 5.7% 2013F 19,501 932 1,075 892 4.50 15.4 4.8 4.6 EBIT ( ) (%) (%) (%) EPS 19,354 851 1,004 834 4.22 15.6 4.4 4.3 2014F (%) (0.8) (8.7) (6.6) (6.6) (6.1) 0.2 ppts (0.4) ppts (0.3) ppts 23,960 1,311 1,318 1,094 5.49 15.4 5.5 4.6 23,560 1,235 1,242 1,031 5.20 15.3 5.2 4.4 (%) (1.7) (5.8) (5.7) (5.7) (5.3) (0.1) ppts (0.2) ppts (0.2) ppts 19.8 1.1% 2013/2014 CB EPS 3.63/4.48 23 ) 11.7 / 9.5 2014 Surveillance ( IP Small cell 2014 12 EPS 4.48 53.8 ( 46.6 ) 12 31 ( ) 13,242 19,268 19,354 23,560 EV/sales (x) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F ( ) ( ) 1,980 562 2,986 1,033 3,022 851 3,604 1,235 EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA (x) (x) 12.6 9.0 7.4 5.3 7.3 5.8 6.7 3.8 ( ( / ) (%) (percentile, %) -12/13 (%) -12/13 (NT$) -12/13 (x) -12/13 (%) 53.8 26.3 77 6.5 20.9 2.0 http://research.kgi.com ( (x) 11.7 10.8 52 12 EBITDA ) 826 1,348 1,068 1,489 ( 10.1 8.2 ( / ): / ( ) 583 755 834 1,031 EV/Inv. C (x) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 ): ): ( ( 3 ): ): ( % (3,6,12 % (3,6,12 ): ) ) ( ) 3.66 3.96 4.22 5.20 (%) 19.9 21.2 20.8 23.8 33 - 43.5 8.7 / 294 205 205 24 3.6 3.9; 11.2; 23 1.1; 15.1; 8.3 2013 11 13 2
    • f 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 2013F 2014F 4,108 3,532 576 496 80 73 16 168 9 0 67 76 15 15 141 23 118 0 118 0.71 0.60 5,093 4,291 802 557 245 76 20 342 9 0 96 104 14 14 336 59 276 0 276 1.70 1.40 5,073 4,243 830 554 276 (6) 22 293 16 0 (3) 14 18 18 272 44 228 (0) 228 1.38 1.15 5,080 4,267 813 564 249 (6) 22 265 16 0 9 25 18 18 255 44 211 (0) 211 1.29 1.07 4,950 4,198 752 535 218 42 22 281 13 0 15 28 14 14 232 53 179 0 179 1.17 0.90 5,500 4,653 847 550 297 42 22 360 13 0 4 17 14 14 300 53 248 0 248 1.51 1.25 6,100 5,161 939 598 342 42 22 405 13 0 (9) 4 14 14 332 53 279 0 279 1.67 1.41 7,010 5,944 1,066 687 379 42 22 442 13 0 0 13 14 14 378 53 325 0 325 1.90 1.64 19,354 16,332 3,022 2,171 851 137 80 1,068 49 0 169 218 65 65 1,004 171 834 0 834 5.09 4.22 23,560 19,956 3,604 2,369 1,235 168 86 1,489 52 0 10 62 55 55 1,242 211 1,031 0 1,031 6.26 5.20 14.0 1.9 4.1 3.4 2.9 15.8 4.8 6.7 6.6 5.4 16.4 5.5 5.8 5.4 4.5 16.0 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.2 15.2 4.4 5.7 4.7 3.6 15.4 5.4 6.6 5.5 4.5 15.4 5.6 6.6 5.4 4.6 15.2 5.4 6.3 5.4 4.6 15.6 4.4 5.5 5.2 4.3 15.3 5.2 6.3 5.3 4.4 (3.8) (13.6) (60.9) (41.7) (13.4) (1.7) 24.0 39.3 206.8 103.3 137.9 133.7 (0.4) 3.5 12.7 (14.4) (19.0) (17.5) 0.1 (2.1) (10.0) (9.4) (6.1) (7.3) (2.6) (7.4) (12.5) 6.1 (9.1) (15.1) 11.1 12.6 36.4 28.2 29.4 38.0 10.9 10.9 15.0 12.4 10.5 12.8 14.9 13.4 10.8 9.1 13.8 16.5 (0.9) (10.5) (61.6) (42.0) (26.7) (26.2) (NT$ (4.2) (6.2) (23.2) (12.4) 16.4 18.7 (8.4) 1.3 (7.9) (22.8) (6.5) (5.7) 19.0 21.9 21.6 (8.1) 56.7 75.6 20.5 30.6 172.3 67.2 64.5 51.7 8.0 5.6 21.0 5.4 (10.5) (10.4) 20.2 13.1 23.6 38.4 22.0 22.5 38.0 31.1 52.1 66.7 47.9 53.9 0.4 1.2 (17.6) (20.8) 7.5 10.4 21.7 19.3 45.2 39.4 23.7 23.7 ) EBITDA ( ) EPS EPS (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBITDA (%) EBITDA http://research.kgi.com 2013 11 13 3
    • f 2014 年 EPS 1992 1.41 1.40 2012 1.15 193 11% 1.25 1.07 0.90 54% 0.63 9% IP surveillance 0.60 4Q12 18% 1Q13 8% 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F EPS Home gateway Cable DOCSIS 3.0 51 28 37 15 7 54 2010 18 12 6 8 8 23 18 20 47 55 15 45 13 9 24 53 25 49 11 9 2011 10 43 6 15 11 10 39 0 15 2012 4 15 16 37 (5) 1H13 Smart home control&IP surveillance SMB Connectivity products 5 41 3Q13 Fixed mobile (incl. Femtocell and carrier products) Home router Home gateway 35 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 (10) May-13 2014 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 16.0x 60 14.0x 12.0x 50 10.0x 40 8.0x 30 6.0x 20 4.0x 10 0 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 ( 3Q13 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 2009 3Q14F ( 2012 2013 ) 6.0 60 5.0 16 50 4.0 14 3.0 12 2.0 1.0 10 1Q13 2011 2H13 ) 18 4Q12 2010 2Q13 3Q13 http://research.kgi.com 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 2.3x 2.0x 40 30 1.7x 1.4x 20 0.8x 10 0.5x 1.1x 0 2009 2013 2010 11 13 2011 2012 2013 4
    • f 12 12 ( 2014F 12,440 10,483 5,268 2,535 2,315 365 1,957 188 1,569 200 7,911 6,754 4,305 1,399 1,050 1,157 1,145 12 4,529 1,984 618 1,927 0 2011A 2012A 2013F 45.5 83.8 63.2 29.5 8.3 0.4 (17.6) (20.8) 10.4 6.6 21.7 45.2 39.4 23.7 23.1 14.9 4.2 6.2 4.4 5.8 19.9 15.5 5.4 7.0 3.9 6.1 21.2 15.6 4.4 5.5 4.3 6.7 20.8 126.4 7.0 11.7 0.2 11.2 0.2 1.2 0.9 269 92.3 Net cash 12.1 0.5 29.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 (464) 70.2 Net cash 16.5 0.6 4.3 0.2 1.5 1.2 (1,687) 56.2 Net cash 23.8 0.9 24.4 0.9 1.6 1.2 (2,472) 3.66 5.31 19.29 78.03 3.52 2.56 3.96 5.62 19.79 99.04 5.42 2.75 4.22 5.32 20.93 97.55 4.31 3.30 5.20 6.48 22.83 118.75 6.22 3.80 1.3 75.6 55.6 90.6 40.7 1.3 72.3 52.6 92.5 32.5 1.5 34.4 43.1 77.0 0.5 1.6 38.0 44.4 73.6 8.8 1.9 35.9 39.3 66.7 8.4 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2012A 19,268 16,282 2,986 1,953 1,033 (50) 34 84 1 (49) 0 935 180 755 1,348 3.96 2013F 19,354 16,332 3,022 2,171 851 (15) 49 65 0 169 0 1,004 171 834 1,068 4.22 2014F 23,560 19,956 3,604 2,369 1,235 (3) 52 55 0 10 0 1,242 211 1,031 1,489 5.20 ) 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2011A 13,242 11,262 1,980 1,418 562 (42) 24 66 1 181 0 701 118 583 826 3.66 2010A (39) 314 200 (553) (1) (887) (665) (59) (163) (926) 987 (153) 2011A 734 583 264 (112) (1) (834) (703) (80) (51) (100) 1,947 92 2012A 2,490 755 315 1,420 (1) (840) (761) 5 (84) 1,650 (850) (177) 2013F 279 834 217 (772) 0 1,322 1,359 0 (37) 1,601 (1,175) (531) 2014F 1,335 1,031 254 50 0 (177) (207) (4) 34 1,158 (1,026) (655) 1,763 91 1,847 (583) (91) 799 (639) (4) 426 (372) 1 132 15.3 5.2 6.3 4.4 8.5 23.8 91.4 12.0 13.0 0.3 (1.2) (0.0) 1.2 0.9 (224) 2010A 8,640 7,193 1,447 1,094 352 (20) 12 32 1 54 0 387 72 314 553 1.97 2014F 53.3 59.4 49.4 85.4 85.5 ) 1,131 9 61 2013F 11,905 9,871 5,136 2,355 2,015 365 2,034 184 1,530 320 7,752 6,429 3,905 1,604 920 1,323 1,312 11 4,153 1,984 618 1,551 0 2010A ) 2012A 12,903 9,330 4,710 2,276 1,815 529 3,573 184 3,027 363 9,052 7,437 4,067 1,954 1,416 1,616 1,600 15 3,851 1,973 618 1,260 0 1.97 3.23 16.27 54.14 2.21 1.52 31 ) 2011A 12,024 8,977 3,911 1,908 2,624 535 3,047 188 2,497 363 8,752 7,772 3,354 3,264 1,153 980 874 106 3,273 1,828 471 973 0 16.7 4.1 6.4 3.6 4.6 12.5 ( 2010A 7,980 5,503 2,064 1,317 1,790 332 2,477 107 1,977 393 5,382 4,494 2,144 1,501 849 888 874 15 2,597 1,761 178 658 0 21.9 34.2 20.1 53.0 45.8 31 12 31 ( ( ) 31 ( EBITDA 12 (% ) EBITDA Free Cash Flow (%) EBITDA / (%) (%) (X) (X) Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) (X) (X) (NT$ ) (NT$ EBITDA/shr ) ROIC 12 31 (Return on Invested Capital) 1- 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 + 80.9% 83.1% 82.9% 83.3% 83.6% 1/ + 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 http://research.kgi.com 2013 4.1% 4.2% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2% 11 13 = 12.7% 10.7% 10.1% 11.2% 10.1% + 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.7 3.2 5.5 7.1 8.4 4.1% 4.2% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2% = 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 1- x 12 31 (X) + 2.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7 3.2 5.5 7.1 8.4 = 81.3% 83.1% 80.8% 83.0% 83.0% ROIC 8.8% 11.4% 23.9% 25.9% 36.5% 5
    • f 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 ( Nov-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 ) 13-Nov-13 42.6 46.6 53.8 14-Aug-13 39.2 49.8 46.6 13-May-13 40.85 53.5 49.8 19-Mar-13 43.2 54.0 53.5 10-Dec-12 39.6 53.0 54.0 30-Oct-12 38.45 61.0 53.0 04-Sep-12 48.5 61.0 61.0 29-Jun-12 44.6 52.0 61.0 27-Apr-12 42.4 50.3 52.0 09-Mar-12 42.35 45.8 50.3 26-Oct-11 34.3 52.5 45.8 30-Aug-11 40 51.9 52.5 15-Jun-11 40.05 51.9 51.9 09-Jun-11 45.35 46.2 51.9 11-Apr-11 33 45.3 46.2 21-Mar-11 30.15 45.3 45.3 08-Mar-11 31.5 33.7 45.3 13-Oct-10 30.15 26.6 33.7 25-Aug-10 20.95 26.7 26.6 31-Mar-10 24.5 14.4 26.7 24-Aug-09 15.8 15.1 14.4 17-Mar-09 14.55 16.7 15.1 http://research.kgi.com 2013 11 13 6
    • 500 A 2703B-2704 104 201103 700 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ( 40% ) ) 40% (U) 40% (NR) (R ) / * http://research.kgi.com =( / 2013 11 )–1 13 7