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3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
3598 2012 07_20_c_tw
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3598 2012 07_20_c_tw

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  • 1. f (3598.TW/3598 TT) ICNT$77.7 multi-channel gate driver12 886.2.2181.87413 ben.yeh@kgisia.com.tw IC IC 15-20% IC 24.6 17% ( ) IC 2.37 35% IC 12 IC 28.4 15% 2.95 25% LCD 2012 IC 2013 IC IC 2012 iSuppli 9% 13% 2012 IC 2011 2016 9.11 11 100 7% IC 4% IC IC IC IC 1.86 22% 6,000 8,500 IC 3500 30% IC 5,000 8,000 4,000 150 24.6 7,500 3,000 17% 32% 10% 7,000 2,000 17.2% 0.6 1,000 6,500 1.5 2.37 0 6,000 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F iSuppli IC 26 27 29 31 33 34 IC 5~10% IC 9 8 10 10 11 13 IC 28.4 15% 2% IC 66 65 61 59 56 52 18.3% 1.1 1.9 2.95 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F iSuppli http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 1
  • 2. f 8 12 2000 11 11 9 7 6 4 1.5 68 66 72 72 76 83 2012 1 30 19 20 26 6 13 HVGA 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015FWVGA QVGA iSuppli QQVGA QVGA WVGA IC 0.18um/0.15um/0.13um 排名 ( ) 1 W619 599 480×320 3.5 2 A750 860 800×480 4 WVGA HD 720 3 V889D 842 800×480 4 4 5233 739 640×360 3.2 5 U880 750 800×480 3.5 6 U8818 982 800×480 4 7 V880 662 800×480 3.5 8 S5360/GALAXY Y 866 320×240 3 9 A65 654 480×360 3.5 10 8150 856 800×480 4 IC iSuppli 2011 2010 2011 2012 2013 HD720 1280*720 0.13um / 0.13um/ 0.15um/ 0.18um qHD 960*540 WQVGA & HVGA & WVGA & qHD & 17%/ 51%/ 10%/ 22% 2012 HVGA WVGA qHD HD720 W VGA 800*480 HVGA 480*320 35%/ 55%/ 0%/ 10% QVGA & WQVGA & HVGA & WQVGA HVGA HVGA+ WVGA W QVGA 400*240 Q VGA 320*240 QVGA & QCIF QVGA & QVGA & WQVGA & Q CIF 176*144 12 & QQVGA QCIF WQVGA HVGA Q QVG A 160*12012 iSuppli 2012 8 17 35 425 10% 39 50 52 59 51 24 8 12 55 10 43 43 41 29 22 10 7 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 iSuppli http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 2
  • 3. f Nokia Samsung LG Sony-Ericsson TCL Motorola IC IC WVGA 2010 8.3% 2011 IC 11.9% IC 2013 2012 /2013 17 19 IC 6.5 8.3 2012 30%/2013 5 5.5 IC 1.5 1.8 ( ) ( ) 70% 20% 1,400 50 44.0 44.6 1,200 IC IC 39.1 40 1,00080% 800 30 600 17.3 16.3 20 400 16.0 10 200 IC 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 Magnachip [2.2] [2.2] [1.5] 9.5 1.68 11.9 Magnachip 4.0 15.9 3.5 5.0 3.9 11.5 IC 5.9 4.3 12.3 4.3 5.7 4.6 11.3 IC 6.7 12.0 4.9 11.3 8.3 10.1 10.2 2011 IC 900 600 Kindle Fire 300 iSuppli 2012 Kindle Fire Atmel 70% 7 IC 300 HVGA 10 IC QVGA QVGA 2700 HVGA 2300 Kindle Fire 1700 WVGA IC IC 600-700 950 7% QVGA IC 35% 9% 17% 2013 IC IC 1000 7~8% 18% IC 30-40%2012 10.5 3.5 IC http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 3
  • 4. f IC 2012 2013 99 107 9% 9% 5.8 6.4 10 5 4 10 8 6 7 15 9.11 9.61 90 95 96 90 92 94 93 85 250 200 3Q11F 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 150 100 IC 50 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-11 13 11 16 17 24 24 21 33 2009 87 89 84 83 76 76 79 67 3Q11F 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 2012 8.5 11 IC 12 11 2012 9.1145% 40% 100 12 0.11um/ 0.13um QVGA 12 31 EBITDA 12 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2010A 5,818 869 259 316 232 4.06 (5346.TW, 2011A 9,060 1,585 602 685 509 8.13 2012F 9,865 1,735 688 775 577 9.11 , NT$0.6) iPhone 2013F 10,726 1,830 756 851 638 9.61 12 31 EV/sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%)IC 2010A 0.7 15.3 12.9 19.1 2.4 17.2 2011A 0.5 7.7 7.0 9.6 1.5 27.2 2012F 0.5 7.2 6.4 8.5 1.6 26.5 2013F 0.5 6.8 6.0 8.1 1.6 28.4 52 ( / ): 57 - 94.6 12 ( ) 100.0 ( / ): 5.2/161 IC / (%) 28.7 ( ): 66 IC (percentile, %) 78 ( ): 66 -12/11 (%) 9.0 ( ): 6 IC -12/12 (NT$) 33.8 3 ( ): 1.3 -12/12 (x) 2.3 % (3,6,12 ) -9.8; 15.3; 15.1 70% -12/12 (%) 0.6 % (3,6,12 ) -5.5; 16.5; 39.9 2009 2012 IC http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 4
  • 5. f 2012/2013 ( ) YoY(%) P/E (X) ROE(%) ( ) (NT$M) 2012F 2013F 2012F 2013F 2012F 2013F 2012F 2013F 3598.TW 77.7 4,925 9.11 9.67 12.1 6.15 8.5 8.0 18.6 19.7 3034.TW 84.5 50,743 6.98 8.06 13.3 15.4 12.1 10.5 11.1 17.6 3545.TW 27.6 3,805 1.98 3.68 100.3 85.6 13.9 7.5 10.3 N.A 8016.TW 34.9 4,117 3.07 N.A 23.9 N.A 11.3 N.A 11.3 N.A HIMX US 1.6 8,270 0.30 0.35 391.7 18.6 5.4 4.5 11.3 11.7   11.1 9.4 11.6 17.0 1Q12A 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F 2012F 2013F (NT$ ) 2,095 2,461 2,835 2,474 2,338 2,739 3,063 2,586 9,865 10,726 1,722 2,037 2,316 2,055 1,958 2,272 2,527 2,138 8,130 8,895 373 424 520 418 380 467 536 448 1,735 1,830 223 256 303 265 231 265 307 272 1,047 1,075 151 168 216 154 148 202 229 176 688 756 21 18 20 19 20 21 22 21 77 85 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 10 11EBITDA 175 187 238 174 171 226 254 200 775 851 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (15) 11 7 6 3 3 3 3 10 11 (13) 13 9 8 4 4 4 4 16 16 4 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 8 8 4 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 8 8 134 180 223 159 151 204 231 179 696 764 ( ) 22 30 36 31 29 30 35 34 118 126 112 150 187 128 122 175 197 145 577 638 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 112 150 187 128 122 175 197 145 577 638 EPS 2.11 2.84 3.52 2.50 2.27 3.07 3.48 2.69 10.97 11.51 EPS 1.76 2.37 2.95 2.02 1.84 2.63 2.96 2.18 9.11 9.61 (%) 17.8 17.2 18.3 16.9 16.2 17.0 17.5 17.3 17.6 17.1 7.2 6.8 7.6 6.2 6.3 7.4 7.5 6.8 7.0 7.0EBITDA Margin 8.4 7.6 8.4 7.0 7.3 8.2 8.3 7.7 7.9 7.9 6.4 7.3 7.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 6.9 7.1 7.1 5.3 6.1 6.6 5.2 5.2 6.4 6.4 5.6 5.9 6.0 (%) (20.2) 17.4 15.2 (12.7) (5.5) 17.1 11.8 (15.6) 8.9 8.7 (40.6) 13.5 22.6 (19.5) (9.2) 22.9 14.7 (16.4) 9.5 5.5 (46.0) 11.4 28.9 (28.9) (3.4) 36.0 13.4 (23.0) 14.4 9.8EBITDA (41.9) 6.8 26.9 (26.7) (1.8) 31.8 12.4 (21.1) 13.2 9.8 (52.3) 34.5 24.1 (28.9) (5.1) 35.5 13.2 (22.7) 12.7 9.9 (51.4) 34.8 24.6 (31.5) (4.8) 43.0 12.6 (26.2) 13.4 10.6 http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 5
  • 6. f 2004 11 1 2010 9 5.43 3.62 3.16 a-Si TFT LCD LTPS LCD IC 2.94 2.45 MP3 PDA GPS, PMP, 2.06 1.97 1.76 IC 0.77 IC 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 4 4 9 5 4 10 7 95 60 15 17 15 15 14 90 50 24 18 14 15 85 40 80 30 75 80 80 79 20 78 71 73 76 70 69 65 10 60 0 55 (10) 1Q11 2Q11F 3Q11F 4Q11F 1Q12 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 12.0x3,000 110 100 11.0x2,500 10.0x2,000 90 9.0x1,500 80 8.0x1,000 70 7.0x 60 6.0x 500 50 0 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 110 2.6x 2.4x 23.9 100 2.2x 18.8 17.8 18.3 90 17.5 17.1 2.0x 16.2 12.2 80 1.8x 70 1.6x 60 1.4x 50 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 6
  • 7. f 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2,202 2,968 4,884 5,151 5,607 2,129 5,818 9,060 9,865 10,726 1,930 2,654 4,621 4,912 5,373 1,779 4,948 7,475 8,130 8,895 708 481 956 936 966 350 869 1,585 1,735 1,830 482 1,161 1,444 1,594 1,744 268 611 983 1,047 1,075 369 752 1,919 1,987 2,174 81 259 602 688 756 371 260 302 395 488 (1) (2) 0 (2) (2) 272 314 263 240 234 6 6 0 2 3 2 2 4 6 6 79 174 170 150 141 3 4 4 8 8 187 135 93 88 90 (2) 1 1 0 0 1,017 1,445 2,669 3,006 3,254 17 (24) 14 10 11 1,016 1,444 2,300 2,652 2,913 0 0 0 0 0 574 796 874 958 1,048 96 232 617 696 764 121 100 498 599 604 0 0 108 118 126 321 548 928 1,096 1,262 96 232 509 577 638 1 1 369 354 340 EBITDA 98 316 685 775 851 0 0 367 352 339 ( ) 2.13 4.06 8.13 9.11 9.61 1 1 2 2 1 1,185 1,523 2,215 2,145 2,353 448 575 634 646 656 284 399 713 498 348 452 548 867 1,001 1,348 0 0 0 0 0 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F (192) (212) (445) 606 558 96 232 509 577 638 38 58 83 87 95 (327) (501) (1,035) (58) (175) 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2 (1) (1) 0 (0) (% ) (311) (100) (30) (64) (89) N.A. 173.2 55.7 8.9 8.7 (114) (144) (67) (57) (76) N.A. 218.1 132.8 14.4 9.8 (7) 1 7 (2) (1)EBITDA N.A. 222.9 116.5 13.2 9.8 (190) 43 31 (5) (13) N.A. 142.6 119.2 13.4 10.6 Free Cash Flow (503) (312) (474) 543 469 N.A. 90.4 100.3 12.0 5.6 (%) 1,211 85 949 (562) (439) 16.4 14.9 17.5 17.6 17.1 1,089 105 183 (647) (431) 3.8 4.4 6.6 7.0 7.0 121 (21) 765 85 (7)EBITDA 4.6 5.4 7.6 7.9 7.9 1 0 1 0 (1) 4.5 4.0 5.6 5.9 6.0 708 (227) 475 (19) 30 8.7 9.0 13.0 11.5 11.9 N.A. 17.2 27.2 26.5 28.4 / (%) 10.2 6.6 39.0 44.3 40.1 (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash 0.6 Net cash ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) (X) 35.9 53.4 168.9 86.2 102.0 12 31 1- + + = (X) 0.8 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.3Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) (70.0) (47.8) (120.9) 74.2 73.7 2009A 82.8% 0.8% 12.6% 3.8%Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) (1.6) (2.0) (0.9) 1.0 0.9 2010A 84.1% 1.0% 10.5% 4.4% 2011A 81.6% 0.9% 10.8% 6.6% (X) 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 2012F 81.5% 0.9% 10.6% 7.0% (X) 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 2013F 82.0% 0.9% 10.0% 7.0% (NT$ ) (587) (484) (236) (38) (5) (NT$ ) 12 31 1/ + + = 2.13 4.06 8.13 9.11 9.61 2009A 0.2 0.0 0.1 3.0 2.97 5.07 9.46 10.48 11.04 2010A 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 26.39 26.62 35.39 33.84 35.43 2011A 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 47.42 101.71 144.72 155.60 161.53 2012F 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7EBITDA/shr 1.81 4.52 9.61 10.86 11.38 2013F 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 2.03 3.30 7.00 4.50 4.60 12 31 x x 1- = ROIC 2009A 3.8% 3.0 100.0% 11.6% (X) 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2010A 4.4% 4.1 100.0% 18.1% 63.3 47.2 77.3 73.5 74.0 2011A 6.6% 3.5 82.5% 19.3% 82.7 72.9 58.2 59.0 59.4 2012F 7.0% 3.7 83.0% 21.5% 98.5 49.9 35.2 35.4 35.7 2013F 7.0% 3.7 83.5% 22.0% 47.5 70.1 100.3 97.0 97.7 http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 7
  • 8. f100 90 80 70 60 50 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 : ( )20-Jul-12 77.7 N/A 100.01-Feb-12 74.0 93.0 98.021-Nov-11 75.7 N/A 93.0 : http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 8
  • 9. 100 A 1907-1909 104 700 200051 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ) 40% 40% (U) ( ) 40% (NR) (R ) / * =( / )–1http://research.kgi.com 2012 07 20 9

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