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3474

  1. 1. f 50% (3474.TW/3474 TT) 48.5% 1.45 1.14 (1-1.5%)2013-14 2014 NT$18.70 2013-14 2013F 1 2 3 1 2 3 , CFA 886.2.2181.8709 Michael.liu@kgi.com 3Q13 william.kuo@kgi.com 72.9 33% 95% ( ) (%) (%) (%) 1.21 1.04 56,335 19,629 18,964 18,092 3.08 34.8 33.7 32.1 886.2.2181.8741 1.18 2014F (%) 1.0 3.1 3.6 4.4 1.6 0.8 ppts 56,874 20,244 19,647 18,886 3.13 35.6 34.5 33.2 0.9 ppts 1.1 ppts 71,003 33,648 32,835 31,645 5.24 47.4 46.2 44.6 (%) 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 ppts 71,595 34,040 33,227 32,052 5.30 47.5 46.4 44.8 0.2 ppts 0.2 ppts 169 0.81 2013-14 2013F 4Q13 56,874 20,244 19,647 18,886 3.13 35.6 34.5 33.2 ( ) (%) (%) (%) DRAM 2014F (%) 7.4 9.5 23.0 15.5 25.6 0.7 ppts 4.4 ppts 2.3 ppts 52,979 18,481 15,967 16,351 2.49 34.9 30.1 30.9 71,595 34,040 33,227 32,052 5.30 47.5 46.4 44.8 (%) 12.7 15.0 N.A. 17.1 35.1 0.9 ppts N.A. 1.7 ppts 63,545 29,612 N.A. 27,373 3.93 46.6 N.A. 43.1 PC DRAM 12 2014 2 33% 110% 4Q13 20 2014 2014 0.81 63 1.18 2014 95% 1.21 44 ( 80 優於市場預估 169 73 2013 20 三 3Q13 26 3x 71 ) 1)DRAM 2)4x 3x 3) PC DRAM 4) 3-6 7% 33.9 DRAM 4x 3x DRAM 15-20% DRAM DRAM PC 2Q13 DRAM OEM 50% 6-7 55% DRAM 15-20% DRAM 5-6% 50% 1Q14 10-15% 4Q13 DRAM 4Q13 PC DRAM 45% 4Q13 Nand Flash 40% DRAM DRAM ( ) DRAM http://research.kgi.com 2013 10 23 1
  2. 2. f 12 31 ( 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 DRAM 性 DRAM 藉此將 3Q13 2014 2013-14 181 316 321 5.3 2.36 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 189 2013-14 3.93 26% 12 2014 ( / 3.13 49% 26 ) 37,385 35,296 56,874 71,595 EV/sales (x) 4.4 4.5 2.7 1.6 ( ) ( ) (18,163) (19,870) (13,550) (14,339) 20,244 19,647 34,040 33,227 EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA (x) (x) (8.1) 12.9 (11.7) 10.3 7.8 4.4 3.4 2.3 52 26.0 39.0 93 N.A. 7.7 3 2.4 85.4 ) (%) (percentile, %) -12/13 (%) -12/13 (NT$) -12/13 (x) -12/13 (%) ( EBITDA ) 12,809 15,362 34,888 48,455 ( (x) N.M. N.M. ( 6.0 3.5 ( / ): / ( ) (21,003) (15,539) 18,886 32,052 EV/Inv. C (x) 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.8 ): ): ( ( ): ): ( % (3,6,12 % (3,6,12 ): ) ) ( ) (4.53) (2.95) 3.13 5.30 (%) N.A. N.A. 55.1 51.2 2.1 - 19.6 113.1/3,843 6,046 4,662 2,623 11.2 39.6; 70.8; 341 35.8; 63.3; 285.5 2 2-2.5 1Q13A (NT$ 2Q13A 3Q13F 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 2013F 2014F ) ) EPS EPS (%) EBITDA Margin 16,944 9,285 7,659 148 7,511 3,801 0 11,312 5 0 106 111 332 332 7,290 0 7,290 0 7,290 1.21 1.21 18,551 9,312 9,239 180 9,059 3,730 0 12,789 10 0 0 10 332 332 8,737 0 8,737 0 8,737 1.45 1.45 19,657 9,464 10,193 276 9,917 3,831 0 13,749 20 0 0 20 332 332 9,606 0 9,606 0 9,606 1.59 1.59 18,183 9,421 8,762 193 8,569 3,788 0 12,357 32 0 0 32 332 332 8,269 0 8,269 0 8,269 1.37 1.37 17,286 9,367 7,918 193 7,725 3,811 0 11,537 45 0 0 45 332 332 7,438 0 7,438 0 7,438 1.23 1.23 16,469 9,302 7,166 151 7,015 3,797 0 10,812 56 0 0 56 332 332 6,739 0 6,739 0 6,739 1.12 1.12 56,874 36,630 20,244 639 19,647 15,239 2 34,888 30 0 529 559 1,319 1,319 18,886 0 18,886 0 18,886 3.13 3.13 71,595 37,555 34,040 813 33,227 15,228 0 48,455 153 0 0 153 1,328 1,328 32,052 0 32,052 0 32,052 5.30 5.30 (3.1) (4.6) 40.7 (7.1) (7.1) 28.4 27.3 57.1 27.2 27.2 45.2 44.3 66.8 43.0 43.0 49.8 48.8 68.9 47.1 47.1 51.9 50.5 69.9 48.9 48.9 48.2 47.1 68.0 45.5 45.5 45.8 44.7 66.7 43.0 43.0 43.5 42.6 65.7 40.9 40.9 35.6 34.5 61.3 33.2 33.2 47.5 46.4 67.7 44.8 44.8 47.7 N.A. N.A. 107.3 N.A. N.A. 32.9 111.8 116.1 55.5 109.9 109.9 9.5 20.6 20.6 13.1 19.8 19.8 6.0 10.3 9.5 7.5 9.9 9.9 (7.5) (14.0) (13.6) (10.1) (13.9) (13.9) (4.9) (9.6) (9.8) (6.6) (10.0) (10.0) (4.7) (9.5) (9.2) (6.3) (9.4) (9.4) 8.9 (92.7) (90.0) (0.0) (86.2) (86.2) ( 12,747 9,131 3,615 139 3,476 3,799 1 7,277 5 0 326 331 335 335 3,472 0 3,472 0 3,472 0.63 0.63 (5.3) N.A. N.A. (9.3) N.A. N.A. EBITDA 8,632 8,902 (269) 130 (399) 3,908 1 3,510 9 0 98 106 321 321 (613) 0 (613) 0 (613) (0.11) (0.11) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 42.6 142.4 146.5 69.8 138.1 138.1 2.0 3.4 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 (11.2) (22.4) (22.6) (15.5) (22.9) (22.9) 61.1 N.A. N.A. 127.1 N.A. N.A. 25.9 68.1 69.1 38.9 69.7 69.7 (%) EBITDA (%) EBITDA http://research.kgi.com 2013 10 23 2
  3. 3. f (2408 TT, NT$4.07, 2008 ) 11 ( )2003 2013 300mm WPM 42 30 2Q13 12-13 30 ( ) DRAM 60 40 90 20 80 0 70 3.92 DRAM ) 100 35.5% 50% ( 110 (20) 60 (40) 50 (60) 40 1Q08 90-95% 4Q08 3Q09 2Q10 1Q11 4Q11 3Q12 2Q13 1Q14F (80) 4Q14F 20 2013-14 PC DRAM 45% 2012 15% ( DRAM ) ( ) 6.0 15 60 40 1.0 20 (1.5) 0 (4.0) 80 3.5 20 1 2 12 60 15 100 (20) (6.5) (40) 85 40 50 20 (9.0) 0 (60) 2007 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2H13F DRAM 2Gb DDR3 DRAM 25 1.5 200 10 1.8 300 15 2.1 400 20 2.4 100 1.2 5 0.9 0 Oct-12 0.6 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 0 (100) Dec-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Oct-13 DRAMeXchange; ( ) GB ( ) 35 80 600 70 500 25 400 20 300 15 200 10 2.0x 1.7x 1.4x 1.1x 0.8x 20 100 5 0.5x 10 0 0 60 50 40 30 2007 2008 2009 2010 http://research.kgi.com 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 30 2.3x 2008 2013 2009 10 23 2010 2011 2012 2013 3
  4. 4. f 12 31 12 ( 2010A 2011A 142,269 120,989 17,871 18,459 5,109 5,464 4,506 3,143 5,735 7,466 2,522 2,386 124,398 102,531 0 0 121,264 100,190 3,134 2,341 89,000 88,544 32,811 59,414 10,907 3,265 18,278 54,590 3,627 1,560 56,189 29,129 56,168 29,118 21 11 53,269 32,446 46,383 46,417 41,616 41,761 (34,730) (55,733) 0 0 ) 2012A 2013F 2014F 89,804 110,430 141,884 12,711 41,594 78,276 2,928 17,449 56,629 4,262 8,129 7,216 3,867 14,130 12,544 1,654 1,886 1,886 77,093 68,836 63,608 0 0 0 74,766 68,514 63,286 2,328 322 322 67,840 63,800 63,203 50,552 43,624 43,026 3,334 5,322 4,725 45,982 37,089 37,089 1,237 1,212 1,212 17,288 20,177 20,177 17,285 20,175 20,175 3 2 2 21,964 46,629 78,681 54,051 60,386 60,386 39,185 41,312 41,312 (71,271) (55,069) (23,017) 0 0 0 ( 12 2010A 2012A 2013F ) 31 ( ) (9.8) N.A. (43.6) N.A. N.A. (5.6) N.A. 19.9 N.A. N.A. 61.1 N.A. 127.1 N.A. N.A. 25.9 69.1 38.9 69.7 69.7 (48.6) (53.1) 34.3 (56.2) (16.0) N.A. (38.4) (40.6) 43.5 (44.0) (14.7) N.A. 35.6 34.5 61.3 33.2 18.9 55.1 258.0 241.2 (11.8) (0.3) 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 73,791 288.0 274.7 (9.9) (0.3) 12.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 69,292 122.8 85.4 15.3 0.5 17.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 50,077 72.8 0.8 25.1 0.9 37.0 1.3 1.8 1.7 20,225 (4.53) 2.52 6.99 8.06 (4.28) N.D. (2.95) 2.69 4.17 6.70 (2.72) N.D. 3.13 5.65 7.72 9.41 3.25 N.D. 5.30 7.82 13.02 11.85 5.50 N.D. 0.3 72.9 30.7 31.9 71.7 0.3 40.0 44.1 34.5 49.6 0.6 90.7 52.2 34.2 108.7 0.6 64.0 36.8 24.1 76.7 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2010A 30,554 (10,661) 31,914 9,302 0 (54,833) (54,716) 0 (117) (24,279) 24,011 15,102 2011A 1,734 (21,003) 32,679 (9,942) 0 (10,812) (10,823) 0 11 (9,078) 9,433 180 2012A 17,121 (15,539) 29,701 2,958 0 (4,263) (4,246) 0 (17) 12,857 (15,393) 5,057 2013F 22,456 18,886 15,241 (11,671) 0 (7,846) (7,841) 0 (5) 14,610 (4) 6,000 2014F 49,181 32,052 15,228 1,901 0 (10,000) (10,000) 0 0 39,181 0 0 9,263 (10) 355 (20,441) (8) (2,536) (6,003) (1) 14,607 0 0 39,181 ) 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 0.3 50.5 39.7 96.0 (5.9) 2014F 71,595 37,555 34,040 813 33,227 (1,175) 153 1,328 0 0 0 32,052 0 32,052 48,455 5.30 47.5 46.4 67.7 44.8 25.4 51.2 139.8 130.2 (7.2) (0.5) 23.4 1.6 0.5 0.4 64,745 2013F 56,874 36,630 20,244 597 19,647 (1,290) 30 1,319 0 529 0 18,886 0 18,886 34,888 3.13 2014F (2.34) 4.67 11.69 9.10 (2.02) N.D. ) 2011A (17.9) (22.2) 54.8 (25.7) (8.1) N.A. ( ( EBITDA 14.8 N.A. 12.3 N.A. N.A. 31 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 41,454 37,385 35,296 48,857 55,548 48,846 (7,403) (18,163) (13,550) 1,811 1,707 789 (9,214) (19,870) (14,339) (1,273) (1,600) (1,409) 32 44 20 1,305 1,644 1,429 0 0 0 (175) 467 210 0 0 0 (10,661) (21,003) (15,539) 0 0 0 (10,661) (21,003) (15,539) 22,700 12,809 15,362 (2.34) (4.53) (2.95) 8,916 (7) (268) 12 (% ) EBITDA Free Cash Flow (%) EBITDA / (%) (%) (X) (X) Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) (X) (X) (NT$ ) (NT$ EBITDA/shr ) ROIC 12 31 (Return on Invested Capital) 1- 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 + 40.9% 61.2% 54.2% 37.6% 31.2% 1/ + 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 http://research.kgi.com 2013 (22.2%) (53.1%) (40.6%) 34.5% 46.4% 10 23 = 4.4% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% + 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.9 x 12 31 (X) + 77.0% 87.4% 84.1% 26.8% 21.3% = 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 x 1- 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 (22.2%) (53.1%) (40.6%) 34.5% 46.4% 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 = 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ROIC (7.4%) (17.7%) (17.1%) 22.0% 40.1% 4
  5. 5. f 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 : ( ) 18.70 18.15 5.53 26.00 4.65 5.00 26.00 26.00 4.65 17-Apr-12 8.03 5.95 5.00 18-Jan-12 5.33 5.45 5.95 20-Oct-11 6.16 8.65 5.45 20-Jul-11 7.32 13.40 8.65 26-May-11 12.40 22.00 13.40 23-Oct-13 16-Oct-13 18-Jul-12 18-Feb-11 17.70 23.00 22.00 22-Jan-10 4-Feb-09 24.85 21.15 19.00 13.40 23.00 19.00 : http://research.kgi.com 2013 10 23 5
  6. 6. 500 A 2703B-2704 104 201103 700 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ( 40% ) ) 40% (U) 40% (NR) (R ) / * http://research.kgi.com =( / 2013 10 )–1 23 6

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