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2059 2012 04_16_c_tw

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  • 1. f (2059.TW/2059 TT) 2012NT$172.5 Accuride 25% 2012 30%12 886.2.2181.8726 2012 20123 angelah@kgisia.com.tw 2011 20 22% 24-25 30% 2012 2012 ( ) ( ) 2012 30% 700 50 2012 37% 24% 650 40 2012 205 (2012 600 30 17 ) 550 20 500 10 450 0 400 (10) 4Q11 7.73 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F ( 20%) 2.77 ( 20%) 14 20% 1Q12 6% : ; 10-20% 2012 4Q11 ( ) Ivy Bridge Xeon CPU 3Q11 2,000 4Q11 4,000 5,000 4Q11 1.2 1Q12 1.3 2Q12 1.5-1.6 10-15% 1Q12 2H12 1.6-1.7 2Q12 2012 2011 2.7 2012 6 2011 10% 2012 18% 4Q11 1Q12 4Q11 1Q12F QoQ (%) YoY (%) (%) QoQ (%) YoY (%) 773 19.9 20.0 678 13.9 727 (5.8) 24.7 381 15.8 7.3 339 12.4 356 (6.5) 24.7 40% 2012EBIT 277 20.1 4.2 231 20.0 258 (6.7) 37.0 (2) - - 63 (103.3) 19 - (13.4) 6% 270 (24.4) 108.9 250 7.8 230 (14.7) 25.4 ( ) 2.94 (24.4) 108.9 2.72 7.8 2.50 (14.7) 25.4 35 (%) 49.3 (1.7) ppts (5.9) ppts 50.0 (0.7) ppts 49.0 (0.3) ppts (0.0) ppts Blum( 50%) Hettich(EBIT 35.8 0.1 ppts (5.5) ppts 34.0 1.8 ppts 35.5 (0.3) ppts 3.2 ppts (%) 34.9 (20.5) ppts 14.9 ppts 36.9 (2.0) ppts 31.6 (3.3) ppts 0.2 ppts 30%) Grass( ) ( 1A88,1A89) 8 3.5 http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 1
  • 2. f 2012 2012 10.5% 12.05 ( ) ( )200 20 2012-13 2012-13 30% 20%150 15 24% 21%100 10 50 5 2011-2012 2011 2012F 0 0 (%) (%) 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2,523 2,617 3.7 3,138 3,395 8.2 EBIT 831 877 5.6 1,134 1,262 11.3 1,059 1,040 (1.8) 1,211 1,339 10.6 : ; 879 898 2.2 1,005 1,111 10.6 ( ) 9.54 9.75 2.2 10.91 12.05 10.5 (%) 49.0 48.9 (0.2) ppts 49.9 50.1 0.2 ppts2012 (%) 32.9 33.5 0.6 ppts 36.1 37.2 1.1 ppts (%) 34.8 34.3 (0.5) ppts 32.0 32.7 0.7 ppts 2012 30% 2H11 14-15% 2012 12.5% 4Q11 13.5% 10.5% 12.5-13.5% 2012 163 ( 20122012 15 ) 205 ( 2012 17 ) ( ( )18 38.2 41.3 38.5 8-23 35.8 35.5 36.9 37.417 35.8 37.016 33.2 32.315 29.414 12 31 EBITDA13 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )12 2010A 2,551 1,327 953 1,060 704 7.6611 2011A 2,617 1,280 877 1,008 898 9.7510 2012F 3,395 1,700 1,262 1,400 1,111 12.05 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2013F 4,067 2,027 1,510 1,663 1,349 14.63 12 31 EV/sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) 2010A 5.6 15.1 13.5 22.5 2.9 20.7 : 2011A 5.4 16.0 14.0 17.7 2.6 23.8 2012F 4.0 10.8 9.7 14.3 2.2 25.8 2013F 3.2 8.6 7.8 11.8 1.8 26.8 52 ( / ): 98 - 185.52012 12 ( ) 205.0 ( / ): 16 / 540 2012 1Q12 / (%) 18.8 ( ): 92 (percentile, %) 66 ( ): 926% 15% 2.5 -12/11 (%) 2.9 ( ): 5 -12/12 (NT$) 50.2 3 ( ): 1 2Q12 10-15% -12/12 (x) 3.4 % (3,6,12 ) 18.2; 56.1; 17.3 -12/12 (%) % (3,6,12 ) 10.5; 48.7; 34.4 : 2Q12 17% 2.9 2H12 1Q12 2Q12 2012 http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 2
  • 3. F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F 2012F 2013F (NT$ ) 727 827 886 954 878 948 1,042 1,199 3,395 4,067 371 414 443 467 448 483 521 587 1,695 2,040 356 414 443 486 430 464 521 611 1,700 2,027 98 108 112 119 116 123 130 147 437 517 258 305 332 367 314 341 391 464 1,262 1,510 34 34 34 34 38 38 38 38 135 150 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3EBITDA 293 340 366 402 352 379 429 502 1,400 1,663 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 17 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 100 100 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 117 121 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 41 44 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 41 44 277 324 351 386 333 360 410 483 1,339 1,587 ( ) 47 55 60 66 50 54 62 72 228 238 230 269 291 321 283 306 349 411 1,111 1,349 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 269 291 321 283 306 349 411 1,111 1,349 EPS 3.02 3.53 3.81 4.20 3.62 3.92 4.46 5.25 14.52 17.21 EPS 2.50 2.93 3.17 3.49 3.08 3.33 3.79 4.47 12.05 14.63 (%) 49.0 50.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 50.1 49.8 35.5 36.9 37.4 38.5 35.8 36.0 37.5 38.7 37.2 37.1EBITDA Margin 40.2 41.1 41.3 42.1 40.2 40.0 41.2 41.9 41.3 40.9 38.1 39.2 39.6 40.5 38.0 38.0 39.3 40.3 39.4 39.0 31.6 32.5 32.8 33.6 32.3 32.3 33.4 34.2 32.7 33.2 (%) (5.8) 13.7 7.2 7.6 (8.0) 8.0 10.0 15.0 29.7 19.8 (6.5) 16.0 7.2 9.8 (11.6) 8.0 12.2 17.3 32.8 19.3 (6.7) 18.2 8.6 10.8 (14.5) 8.6 14.6 18.7 43.9 19.7EBITDA (6.2) 16.0 7.8 9.8 (12.3) 7.7 13.1 17.0 39.0 18.8 1.0 16.9 8.1 10.2 (13.7) 8.1 13.8 17.8 28.7 18.5 (14.7) 16.9 8.1 10.2 (11.7) 8.1 13.8 17.8 23.7 21.4 http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 3
  • 4. f 2012 1986 2001 3.89 3.49 2005 3.17 2.94 2.93 48% 2.50 2007 2.00 2008 0.95 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F2011 [0.7%] 200 50 40 6 180 5 30 6 160 20 140 10 0 120 (10) 100 (20) 81 80 (30) 1-3Q11 18.5 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 2012 1,000 24.0x 21.3x 200 18.6x 900 800 15.9x 700 160 600 13.2x 500 120 400 10.5x 300 80 7.8x 200 100 0 40 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 51.1 51.0 6.5x 5.7x 4.9x 50.0 50.0 200 4.1x 49.0 49.3 49.0 160 3.3x 45.9 2.5x 120 1.7x 80 40 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 4
  • 5. f 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 5,199 5,401 5,847 6,756 7,695 2,175 2,551 2,617 3,395 4,067 3,571 3,745 4,163 5,071 6,060 1,051 1,224 1,338 1,695 2,040 2,669 2,857 3,112 3,734 4,478 1,123 1,327 1,280 1,700 2,027 270 310 319 404 486 349 374 402 437 517 562 504 686 884 1,036 775 953 877 1,262 1,510 69 74 45 50 60 (16) (26) (23) (24) (24) 1,628 1,656 1,684 1,685 1,635 0 0 0 0 0 11 10 13 17 21 1,618 1,643 1,666 1,665 1,615 27 36 36 41 44 10 12 18 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 1,968 1,827 1,871 2,130 2,273 53 (71) 186 100 100 1,480 520 1,808 2,065 2,208 0 0 0 0 0 195 166 214 279 335 812 856 1,040 1,339 1,587 956 7 1,281 1,436 1,513 164 151 142 228 238 329 347 313 350 360 648 704 898 1,111 1,349 488 1,306 63 65 65 EBITDA 851 1,060 1,008 1,400 1,663 435 1,251 0 0 0 ( ) 7.13 7.66 9.75 12.05 14.63 53 56 63 65 65 3,231 3,574 3,976 4,626 5,422 871 921 922 922 922 289 361 371 371 371 2,070 2,292 2,684 3,334 4,129 0 0 0 0 0 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 768 814 880 1,064 1,324 648 704 898 1,111 1,349 76 107 130 138 153 44 3 (148) (185) (178) 12 31 ( ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 0 0 0 0 0 (% ) (310) (135) (159) (139) (103) (15.1) 17.3 2.6 29.7 19.8 (307) (131) (149) (134) (100) (15.4) 23.1 (8.0) 43.9 19.7 0 0 0 0 0EBITDA (14.1) 24.7 (5.0) 39.0 18.8 (3) (4) (10) (5) (3) (18.1) 8.6 27.5 23.7 21.4 Free Cash Flow 458 679 721 925 1,221 (18.6) 7.5 27.2 23.7 21.4 (%) 370 (492) (466) (304) (476) 51.6 52.0 48.9 50.1 49.8 (74) (361) (496) (461) (553) 35.6 37.4 33.5 37.2 37.1 440 (133) 23 155 77EBITDA 39.1 41.6 38.5 41.3 40.9 4 3 8 2 0 29.8 27.6 34.3 32.7 33.2 827 188 256 621 744 13.9 13.3 16.0 17.6 18.7 22.0 20.7 23.8 25.8 26.8 / (%) 43.1 35.2 32.2 31.0 27.9 (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) (X) 31.6 24.8 29.5 33.8 36.9 12 31 1- + + = (X) 0.9 20.6 0.8 0.9 1.0Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) 29.0 22.6 24.1 26.1 29.9 2009A 44.9% 3.5% 16.0% 35.6%Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) 0.8 18.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 2010A 43.8% 4.2% 14.7% 37.4% 2011A 46.1% 5.0% 15.4% 33.5% (X) 2.4 7.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2012F 45.9% 4.1% 12.9% 37.2% (X) 2.2 6.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2013F 46.4% 3.8% 12.7% 37.1% (NT$ ) (1,084) (1,438) (1,715) (2,065) (2,632) (NT$ ) 12 31 1/ + + = 7.13 7.66 9.75 12.05 14.63 2009A 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.0 7.96 8.83 11.16 13.55 16.29 2010A 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.2 35.31 38.80 43.14 50.20 58.83 2011A 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.1 23.77 27.69 28.40 36.83 44.12 2012F 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.3EBITDA/shr 8.52 10.37 9.52 13.69 16.39 2013F 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.5 3.60 3.41 5.00 6.00 7.00 12 31 x x 1- = ROIC 2009A 35.6% 1.0 79.8% 29.2% (X) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 2010A 37.4% 1.2 82.3% 36.4% 94.4 72.1 95.7 95.0 93.0 2011A 33.5% 1.1 86.4% 32.2% 45.4 44.3 44.5 43.4 43.6 2012F 37.2% 1.3 83.0% 40.9% 32.7 23.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 2013F 37.1% 1.5 85.0% 47.1% 107.1 92.7 110.3 108.4 106.5 http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 5
  • 6. f250200150100 50 0 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 : ( )16-Apr-12 172.5 163.0 205.007-Nov-11 141.5 113.5 163.001-Sep-11 104.5 133.0 113.528-Jun-11 120.5 188.0 133.029-Sep-10 156 193.0 188.026-Jan-10 174.5 187.0 193.023-Sep-09 189 110.5 187.001-Jul-09 105.5 136.7 110.507-May-09 124 128.0 136.716-Feb-09 97.8 100.0 128.027-Nov-08 85.5 132.0 100.013-Oct-08 102.5 240.0 132.0 : http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 6
  • 7. 100 A 1907-1909 104 700 200051 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ) 40% 40% (U) ( ) 40% (NR) (R ) / * =( / )–1http://research.kgi.com 2012 04 16 7