f
6

(2006.TW/2006 TT)

3

6~9

H

2014~2015

NT$25.6

1
2
3

1
2 886.2.2181.8749
3 chienan.lai@kgi.com

886.2.2181.8727
m...
f

14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
4Q11

2014

1.1

(2002 TT, NT$25.45,

)

1.3~1.9
2014
1Q12

2Q12

...
f
(
2006 TT
2002 TT
2015 TT
X US
NUE US
MT NA
600019 CH
002075 CH
347 HK
5401 JP
005490 KS

)
978
14,331
1,019
3,784
16,10...
f
2013~2014

1962

EPS

99.2

0.52

230

0.51

0.51

0.52

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13F

0.60

0.59

0.54

1Q13

H

1Q14F

0.50

2010...
f
12

12

(

2015F
42,936
21,229
4,415
12,587
3,845
383
21,707
4,588
15,857
1,262
17,820
11,016
1,695
7,017
2,304
6,804
6,...
f
歷

45
40
35
30
25
20
Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar...
500

A

2703B-2704

104

201103

700
886.2.2181.8888
886.2.8501.1691

2014

A

24D1

518008

852.2878.6888

8th - 11th flo...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

2006

2,180 views
2,081 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
2,180
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1,682
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

2006

  1. 1. f 6 (2006.TW/2006 TT) 3 6~9 H 2014~2015 NT$25.6 1 2 3 1 2 886.2.2181.8749 3 chienan.lai@kgi.com 886.2.2181.8727 marc@kgi.com 200 150 100 2013 1~3Q 50 25% 19% 2014~2015 0 (50) 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2 10% 2 2013 4Q13 2014 H 1.1 39.3 2Q14 0.9~2.4 (QoQ+6.4%) 40 1Q14 42 2014 BOT 5.4% 2014 33 ( 27.2 ) 2014 (YoY+6.7%) 1.4 H 11 29 10 680 2017 7%) 2013 2013 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 Jan-13 16 2% 8,000 ( 2 158 May-13 1~2Q14 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 10.5 11 71.2% 2015 76% 81% 2012 5 NT$500-600 2013 1~3Q 25% 19% 9~10% 3Q13 5% 2 1.5 http://research.kgi.com 1.2 2015 7/1 2013 12 03 1
  2. 2. f 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) 4Q11 2014 1.1 (2002 TT, NT$25.45, ) 1.3~1.9 2014 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 ~2015 3Q13 2014 5.4% 33 2013 3Q13 79.1 10.3% EPS 0.51 23.6 5.09 80% 2012 ( 4Q13 4Q13 5.2 88.9 EPS 0.52 2013 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F ( 2013 3Q13 4Q13F ( ) (%) (%) (%) YoY (%) (10.5) (9.2) (10.5) 0.8 0.8 0.1 ppts (0.0)ppts 0.7 ppts (14.4) 2.1 10.9 80.9 80.9 1.7 ppts 1.3 ppts 3.4 ppts QoQ (%) 8,896 925 525 520 0.52 10.4 5.9 5.8 ( ) 1.2 ) YoY (%) 12.4 13.2 15.3 2.2 2.2 0.1 ppts 0.1 ppts (0.6)ppts (5.5) (5.7) (5.7) 26.2 26.2 (0.0)ppts (0.0)ppts 1.5 ppts ( ) ( ) 3,950 2,275 3,549 2,027 3,821 2,288 4,261 2,692 EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA (x) (x) 16.6 9.7 17.6 10.3 15.2 9.2 12.7 8.1 ( ) (%) (percentile, %) -12/13 (%) -12/13 (NT$) -12/13 (x) -12/13 (%) 33.0 28.9 91 5.5 22.7 1.1 43.6 2014 EBITDA ) 3,900 3,471 3,805 4,228 ( (x) 14.5 12.4 52 12 / QoQ (%) ) 39,683 34,653 37,870 41,278 EV/sales (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 12 31 2013 7,915 817 456 509 0.51 10.3 5.8 6.4 27.2 12 31 5 10.4% 1.4 ( ( 11.5 10.1 ( / ): / ( ) 1,748 2,045 2,212 2,511 EV/Inv. C (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 ): ): ( ( 3 ): ): ( % (3,6,12 % (3,6,12 ): ) ) ( ) 1.76 2.06 2.23 2.53 (%) 7.8 8.9 9.3 10.2 23 - 30.5 25.6/863 998 998 121 3.0 4.7; -9.7; -12.9 0.9; -12; -22.1 (%) 9,888 935 485 421 0.42 9.5 4.9 4.3 (10.0) (1.1) 8.2 23.5 23.5 0.9 ppts 1.0 ppts 1.6 ppts 2013 EPS 2.06 EPS 2014 2.23 2013 2014 2013F EBIT ( ) (%) (%) (%) 37,076 1,805 268 1,796 1.81 9.5 4.9 4.8 34,653 2,027 313 2,045 2.06 10.2 5.8 5.9 http://research.kgi.com 2014F (%) (6.5) 12.3 16.9 13.9 13.9 0.7 ppts 0.9 ppts 1.1 ppts 37,870 2,288 298 2,212 2.23 10.1 6.0 5.8 (%) 9.3 12.9 (4.9) 8.1 8.1 (0.1)ppts 0.2 ppts (0.1)ppts 2013 12 03 2
  3. 3. f ( 2006 TT 2002 TT 2015 TT X US NUE US MT NA 600019 CH 002075 CH 347 HK 5401 JP 005490 KS ) 978 14,331 1,019 3,784 16,105 21,400 11,598 988 4,212 19,622 27,699 EPS 2013F 2014F 2.06 2.23 1.14 1.48 2.59 2.76 (1.35) 1.03 1.42 3.09 (0.41) 0.84 0.41 0.46 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.16 (16.42) 24.94 20930.30 29410.61 (x) 2013F 12.4 22.2 20.6 N.A. 35.6 N.A. 10.6 159.2 36.6 N.A. 16.1 2014F 11.5 17.1 19.3 25.4 16.4 20.8 9.4 74.9 29.5 13.3 11.5 2013F 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.6 0.6 2.6 0.7 1.4 0.7 (x) 2014F 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.6 2.5 0.7 1.2 0.7 ROE (%) 2013F 2014F 8.9 9.3 5.6 6.9 9.5 10.1 (5.8) 8.5 6.0 12.7 (1.8) 2.8 5.5 6.4 1.6 3.3 1.9 2.4 (4.6) 9.0 4.4 5.9 Bloomberg 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 2013F 2014F 9,002 8,095 907 369 537 330 18 885 5 28 69 102 39 39 600 91 509 3 512 0.60 0.52 8,840 7,940 900 391 509 330 15 854 4 (5) 127 126 35 35 600 103 497 8 505 0.61 0.51 7,915 7,098 817 362 456 293 14 763 5 24 101 130 33 33 552 48 504 5 509 0.56 0.51 8,896 7,971 925 400 525 420 23 968 23 44 61 128 68 68 585 71 514 5 520 0.59 0.52 9,357 8,421 936 375 561 347 17 925 14 17 52 83 42 42 601 72 529 6 535 0.61 0.54 9,701 8,682 1,019 400 619 362 18 998 15 18 52 85 41 41 662 80 582 6 588 0.67 0.59 9,649 8,781 868 347 521 369 18 908 15 17 52 84 43 43 562 69 493 6 499 0.57 0.50 9,163 8,164 999 411 588 369 18 974 15 18 87 120 46 46 662 77 585 6 591 0.67 0.60 34,653 31,104 3,549 1,522 2,027 1,374 70 3,471 37 91 358 486 176 176 2,338 313 2,024 21 2,045 2.36 2.06 37,870 34,048 3,821 1,533 2,288 1,446 70 3,805 59 69 243 371 172 172 2,487 298 2,189 23 2,212 2.51 2.23 10.1 6.0 9.8 6.7 5.7 10.2 5.8 9.7 6.8 5.7 10.3 5.8 9.6 7.0 6.4 10.4 5.9 10.9 6.6 5.8 10.0 6.0 9.9 6.4 5.7 10.5 6.4 10.3 6.8 6.1 9.0 5.4 9.4 5.8 5.2 10.9 6.4 10.6 7.2 6.4 10.2 5.8 10.0 6.7 5.9 10.1 6.0 10.0 6.6 5.8 (4.4) (7.6) (3.5) (8.0) 21.9 24.4 (1.8) (0.7) (5.3) (3.5) 0.0 (1.5) (10.5) (9.2) (10.5) (10.7) (7.9) 0.8 12.4 13.2 15.3 26.9 6.0 2.2 5.2 1.1 6.8 (4.5) 2.7 2.9 3.7 8.9 10.3 7.9 10.1 9.9 (0.5) (14.7) (15.7) (9.0) (15.0) (15.1) (5.0) 15.0 12.7 7.3 17.7 18.3 (10.9) (10.0) (15.4) (14.2) 2.0 5.4 (NT$ (19.0) (22.5) (24.3) (20.4) (6.6) (11.3) (14.4) 2.1 10.9 (8.3) 71.6 80.9 (5.5) (5.7) (5.7) 0.6 19.0 26.2 3.9 3.2 4.3 4.5 0.2 4.4 9.7 13.2 21.5 16.8 10.3 16.4 21.9 6.3 14.5 19.0 1.8 (1.9) 3.0 8.0 11.9 0.7 13.1 13.7 (12.7) (10.2) (10.9) (11.0) 14.3 17.0 9.3 7.7 12.9 9.6 6.4 8.2 ) EBITDA ( ) EPS EPS (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBITDA (%) EBITDA http://research.kgi.com 2013 12 03 3
  4. 4. f 2013~2014 1962 EPS 99.2 0.52 230 0.51 0.51 0.52 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 0.60 0.59 0.54 1Q13 H 1Q14F 0.50 2010 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 30 (4) 28 16.7 0 29 [1.0] (8) 27 (12) 26 13.9 (16) 25 24 68.5 2014 (20) 23 (24) 22 Dec-12 378 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 (28) Nov-13 Sep-13 9.0% 21.0x 12 45 10 40 8 35 6 30 4 25 11.0x 2 20 9.0x 19.0x 17.0x 15.0x 13.0x 15 0 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 2014 10.1 10.2 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 2Q13 2010 2011 2012 2013 10% 10.3 10.4 10.0 10.9 10.5 9.0 1Q13 2009 4Q14F 3Q13 4Q13F http://research.kgi.com 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 2009 2013 2010 12 03 2011 2012 2013 4
  5. 5. f 12 12 ( 2015F 42,936 21,229 4,415 12,587 3,845 383 21,707 4,588 15,857 1,262 17,820 11,016 1,695 7,017 2,304 6,804 6,114 690 25,115 9,918 6,449 8,748 0 2012A 2013F 2014F (12.7) (10.9) (11.0) 17.0 17.0 9.3 12.9 9.6 8.2 8.2 9.0 17.6 11.1 13.5 13.5 10.0 5.7 9.8 4.4 4.2 7.8 10.2 5.8 10.0 5.9 5.0 8.9 10.1 6.0 10.0 5.8 5.4 9.3 59.9 54.4 12.0 0.3 13.4 0.3 1.6 0.5 12,902 55.7 43.6 14.3 0.4 28.5 0.7 1.6 0.6 11,296 53.9 38.9 15.4 0.4 15.4 0.4 1.8 0.7 9,843 52.3 34.7 17.8 0.4 17.0 0.4 1.9 0.8 9,085 1.76 3.40 22.60 40.01 2.29 1.30 2.06 3.52 22.70 34.94 2.04 1.40 2.23 3.76 23.60 38.18 2.31 1.70 2.53 4.08 25.32 41.62 2.71 1.80 1.1 32.9 99.2 22.0 110.1 1.0 34.0 111.8 15.1 130.7 0.9 34.0 111.4 15.0 130.4 0.9 34.0 111.6 15.0 130.6 1.0 34.0 111.3 15.0 130.3 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2013F 34,653 31,104 3,549 1,522 2,027 (138) 37 176 91 358 21 2,338 313 2,045 3,471 2.06 2014F 37,870 34,048 3,821 1,533 2,288 (113) 59 172 69 243 23 2,487 298 2,212 3,805 2.23 2015F 41,278 37,017 4,261 1,569 2,692 (99) 73 173 75 240 (19) 2,908 378 2,511 4,228 2.53 ) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2012A 39,683 35,733 3,950 1,675 2,275 (163) 23 187 36 (104) 34 2,044 331 1,748 3,900 1.76 2011A 2,107 2,679 1,538 (1,981) (129) (1,685) (1,332) 91 (445) 422 (960) (1,108) 2012A 2,503 1,748 1,625 (837) (33) (357) (815) 567 (109) 2,146 (2,226) (1,209) 2013F 4,997 2,045 1,444 1,596 (88) (1,584) (1,514) (0) (70) 3,413 (1,810) (1,289) 2014F 2,647 2,212 1,516 (1,016) (66) (477) (407) (0) (70) 2,169 (1,372) (1,388) 2015F 2,942 2,511 1,536 (1,032) (72) (520) (450) 0 (70) 2,422 (1,652) (1,686) (1,169) 153 (80) (520) 0 1,604 16 0 797 34 0 770 10.3 6.5 10.2 6.1 5.9 10.2 66.6 60.6 17.1 0.3 11.2 0.2 1.3 0.4 12,997 2011A 44,124 39,413 4,711 1,776 2,936 (168) 20 188 140 116 15 3,024 361 2,679 4,474 2.76 2015F (10.1) (22.5) (12.8) (34.8) (36.2) ) 361 (213) (538) 2014F 41,751 19,100 3,645 11,577 3,527 351 22,651 4,516 16,873 1,262 17,461 10,672 1,559 6,999 2,114 6,788 6,099 690 24,291 9,918 6,449 7,924 0 2011A ) 2013F 40,597 16,973 2,848 10,576 3,227 321 23,624 4,450 17,912 1,262 17,130 10,349 1,424 6,990 1,934 6,781 6,091 690 23,467 9,918 6,449 7,100 0 2.76 4.35 22.85 45.47 3.03 1.60 31 ) 2012A 40,854 17,458 1,244 12,150 3,696 368 23,396 4,362 17,772 1,262 18,143 11,120 1,636 7,269 2,215 7,023 6,333 690 22,711 9,918 6,449 6,344 0 10.7 6.7 10.1 6.1 6.4 12.5 ( 2011A 42,549 17,918 1,324 11,995 3,973 626 24,631 4,896 18,482 1,252 20,376 14,101 2,661 9,033 2,407 6,275 5,738 537 22,172 9,809 6,195 6,168 0 27.4 108.9 76.7 103.5 101.1 31 12 31 ( ( ) 31 ( EBITDA 12 (% ) EBITDA Free Cash Flow (%) EBITDA / (%) (%) (X) (X) Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) (X) (X) (NT$ ) (NT$ EBITDA/shr ) ROIC 12 31 (Return on Invested Capital) 1- 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 12 31 + 85.8% 86.0% 85.6% 85.9% 86.0% 1/ + 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 http://research.kgi.com 2013 6.7% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 6.5% 12 03 = 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% + 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 6.7% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 6.5% = 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 1- x 12 31 (X) + 3.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 = 88.1% 83.8% 85.0% 84.0% 87.0% ROIC 7.9% 5.8% 5.4% 6.0% 7.3% 5
  6. 6. f 歷 45 40 35 30 25 20 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 歷 ( ) 2-Dec-13 25.60 27.2 33.0 30-May-13 28.25 27.6 27.2 18-Apr-12 28.35 36.5 27.6 31-Oct-11 27.10 40.5 36.5 23-Aug-11 30.50 42.0 40.5 12-Aug-11 30.50 42.0 42.0 3-Jun-11 32.55 41.5 42.0 9-Feb-11 34.70 38.5 41.5 21-Dec-09 33.35 38.5 38.5 14-Sep-09 24-Aug-09 23-Jun-09 7-May-09 13-Mar-09 34.20 34.20 30.20 29.55 23.55 35.4 36.5 35.0 27.2 28.5 38.5 35.4 36.5 35.0 27.2 http://research.kgi.com 2013 12 03 6
  7. 7. 500 A 2703B-2704 104 201103 700 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ( 40% ) ) 40% (U) 40% (NR) (R ) / * http://research.kgi.com =( / 2013 12 )–1 03 7

×