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  • 1. f H PMI (1531.TW/1531 TT) … PMI 2014 NT$21.65 從 Juki 1 2 3 Quarterly yoy sales growth, percent 886.2.2181.8747 280 jesper.chu@kgi.com 210 140 Juki 70 2014 0 2016 2013 1.48 2.41 (70) 2014 14.6 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 9.0 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13 Juki 2014 22.0 33.7 2014 14 56% Juki PMI 2014 Juki 11 11 2.15 Juki 36.3% 11.5% 11 12 11.2% 25.9% 11 2011 15-20% 12 5.85 6.0% PMI Juki PMI PMI Juki PMI 30.8% 12% PM I EBIT 8.1% Juki PMI 16 Juki 42% ( ( ) ( ) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 55 50 45 40 PMI PMI Apr-99 May-01 Jun-03 Jul-05 http://research.kgi.com ) 250 Aug-07 Sep-09 200 25,000 60 30 Mar-97 ( 30,000 65 35 Juki 35,000 PMI PMI ) Oct-11 20,000 150 15,000 100 10,000 50 5,000 0 0 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Nov-13 2013 12 16 1
  • 2. f H 2014 2014 2015 Juki 2014 20% xx 100 300 2016 350 80 60 250 40 200 Juki 2014 20 0 150 100 2012 Juki Juki 1.3% Juki 0.8% (20) (40) 50 0 (60) 2005 Juki 2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014 2013F 2014F Juki 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 TPP 2016 Juki 2014 4,000 4,000 18%) 2011 PMI ( 2013 2014 2013F 2011 2014F 2,974 3,001 (%) 0.91 678 701 3.39 293 299 316 287 7.85 (4.01) 1.54 22.8 1.48 23.4 (3.90) 0.6 ppts (12.3) (%) 9.9 10.5 (%) 10.0 9.5 59.4 EPS ( ) (%) 2015 (TPP) YoY (%) 10.4 3174.0 3,604 (%) 13.5 YoY (%) 20.1 11.3 723.0 968 33.9 38.1 114.7 (12.3) 323.0 317.0 542 465 67.8 46.7 71.4 62.2 1.6 22.8 2.41 26.9 47.0 4.1 ppts 62.2 0.6 ppts 10.2 15.0 4.8 ppts 0.5 ppts 10.0 12.9 2.9 ppts 17% (FTA) TPP TPP 18.6 2014 2015 3 1 (9.8%) 70% 5.1% TPP 11 2013 1.48 2013 2.41 Juki 2,000 2014 14.6 9.0 8-22 2014 2014 2016 22.0 polo 33.7 2014 14 56% Juki 2014, http://research.kgi.com 2013 2013 12 Juki 23 16 4.1 2
  • 3. f H 12 31 ( ) 4,244 2,719 3,001 3,604 EV/sales (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F ( ) ( ) 1,265 646 630 147 701 316 968 542 EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA (x) (x) 3.8 3.4 16.2 6.0 6.2 3.9 3.1 2.3 ( ( / 33.7 55.7 99 5.1 24.0 0.9 ) (%) (percentile, %) -12/13 (%) -12/13 (NT$) -12/13 (x) -12/13 (%) ( (x) 8.0 12.8 52 12 EBITDA ) 805 335 495 716 ( 14.6 9.0 ( / ): / ( ) 524 327 287 465 EV/Inv. C (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 ): ): ( ( 3 ): ): ( % (3,6,12 % (3,6,12 ): ) ) ( ) 2.71 1.69 1.48 2.41 (%) 11.0 6.8 6.2 9.8 16.4 - 26 4.2/141 193 193 18 1.3 -7.9; 4.9; 29 -8.6; 1.1; 18.5 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 2013F 2014F 814 635 180 105 75 42 1 118 7 0 75 82 2 2 156 63 93 1 94 0.81 0.49 860 643 217 108 109 43 1 153 10 0 13 23 2 2 130 41 89 (5) 84 0.67 0.43 740 569 171 86 86 42 1 128 0 0 35 35 0 0 120 21 99 (2) 97 0.62 0.50 587 454 133 87 46 33 5 84 16 0 (71) (55) 3 3 (12) (38) 26 (15) 11 (0.06) 0.06 932 680 252 116 136 35 6 177 9 0 8 16 (0) (0) 153 (12) 165 (6) 159 0.79 0.82 982 712 270 110 160 35 6 201 10 0 12 21 1 1 181 55 126 (6) 120 0.93 0.62 933 681 252 111 141 39 6 186 11 0 16 26 3 3 165 49 116 (6) 110 0.85 0.57 757 563 194 89 105 39 6 150 10 0 20 29 4 4 131 48 83 (6) 77 0.68 0.40 3,001 2,300 701 385 316 159 7 482 33 0 51 84 6 6 394 87 308 (21) 287 2.04 1.48 3,604 2,636 968 426 542 150 24 716 38 0 54 92 6 6 628 138 490 (25) 465 3.25 2.41 22.1 9.2 14.5 19.2 11.6 25.2 12.7 17.7 15.1 9.8 23.1 11.6 17.3 16.2 13.1 22.7 7.8 14.2 (2.1) 1.9 27.0 14.6 19.0 16.4 17.0 27.5 16.3 20.5 18.4 12.2 27.0 15.1 20.0 17.6 11.8 25.6 13.9 19.9 17.3 10.1 23.4 10.5 16.1 13.1 9.5 26.9 15.0 19.9 17.4 12.9 48.6 12.0 77.5 37.4 (2.0) (23.8) 5.6 20.8 45.4 29.3 (16.6) (11.1) (13.9) (21.1) (21.7) (15.9) (7.7) 15.9 (20.8) (22.4) (46.3) (34.9) N .A. (88.8) 59.0 89.5 195.7 112.6 N.A. 1,353.4 5.3 7.1 17.6 13.5 18.4 (24.6) (5.0) (6.7) (11.9) (7.4) (8.9) (8.4) (18.9) (23.0) (25.5) (19.3) (20.7) (30.1) (1.5) (7.1) (11.5) (11.2) 64.0 38.2 (NT$ 23.0 68.1 1,978.7 152.0 (27,165.3) (2,069.3) 14.8 16.7 482.0 129.6 (46.5) (29.8) 7.0 (17.1) 8.5 (2.8) (107.6) (91.2) 14.5 40.2 80.8 50.4 (2.3) 68.1 14.2 24.4 46.3 32.1 38.7 42.7 26.0 47.1 64.6 45.3 36.9 12.8 29.0 45.9 128.3 80.2 (1,172.2) 602.6 10.4 11.3 114.7 43.9 (17.6) (12.3) 20.1 38.1 71.4 48.4 59.3 62.2 ) EBITDA ( ) EPS EPS (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBITDA (%) EBITDA http://research.kgi.com 2013 12 16 3
  • 4. f H 2014 1965 Siruba 89 300 0.70 0.64 31% 20% 33% 0.49 10% 0.55 0.50 0.43 0.35 3% Juki Brother 0.11 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 27 25 10 17 30 20 19 20 30 21 35 40 23 15 50 0 15 Dec-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jul-13 (10) Aug-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 2014 1,000 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 800 600 400 200 0 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 29.3 25.2 22.1 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 27.0 23.1 3Q13 http://research.kgi.com 27.5 27.0 22.7 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 17.0x 15.0x 13.0x 11.0x 9.0x 7.0x 5.0x 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1.5x 1.3x 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x 0.3x 2008 2013 2009 12 16 2010 2011 2012 2013 4
  • 5. f H 12 12 ( 2013F 6,046 4,519 2,592 1,000 839 88 1,527 45 1,269 213 1,414 1,008 397 295 316 406 65 341 4,632 1,932 783 1,917 0 2014F 6,436 5,163 2,872 1,146 1,037 108 1,273 45 1,017 211 1,552 1,116 469 293 353 436 69 367 4,885 1,932 783 2,170 0 2010A ) 2012A 5,938 4,431 2,526 1,054 763 87 1,507 45 1,235 227 1,341 995 320 354 321 346 12 334 4,597 1,932 783 1,882 0 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 0.7 (18.1) (15.6) 1.1 1.1 (35.9) (77.2) (58.3) (37.7) (37.7) 10.4 114.7 47.7 (12.3) (12.3) 20.1 71.4 44.5 62.2 62.2 29.8 15.2 19.0 12.3 8.2 11.0 23.2 5.4 12.3 12.0 5.2 6.8 23.4 10.5 16.5 9.5 4.8 6.2 26.9 15.0 19.9 12.9 7.5 9.8 12.3 Net cash 163.4 1.9 101.6 1.2 3.6 2.8 (1,764) 9.6 Net cash 105.4 1.8 (30.5) (0.5) 4.4 3.1 (1,677) 8.0 Net cash 68.1 1.3 206.9 4.1 4.5 3.4 (1,793) 7.8 Net cash 64.9 1.3 83.5 1.7 4.5 3.5 (2,196) 7.4 Net cash 103.4 2.1 62.8 1.3 4.6 3.6 (2,371) 2.68 3.54 23.49 21.83 4.09 1.76 31 ) 2011A 6,521 4,828 1,903 1,406 1,401 117 1,693 57 1,382 254 1,533 1,099 503 400 196 434 79 355 4,987 1,932 1,114 1,942 0 32.5 18.7 22.6 12.3 8.8 11.8 ( 2010A 6,299 4,753 2,486 1,022 1,129 116 1,546 0 1,295 251 1,761 1,328 713 386 229 433 170 263 4,538 1,932 841 1,765 0 81.6 1019.3 288.8 352.7 352.7 31 2.71 3.56 25.83 21.98 3.35 1.96 1.69 2.66 23.80 14.08 0.76 1.30 1.48 2.41 23.98 15.54 1.64 1.10 2.41 3.31 25.29 18.66 2.81 1.80 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 0.7 97.7 88.5 61.7 124.5 0.7 120.5 120.9 43.3 198.1 0.4 102.4 141.5 43.0 200.9 0.5 102.0 121.6 48.3 175.3 0.6 105.0 116.1 47.5 173.5 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 ( ( ( 2010A 4,216 2,844 1,372 582 789 23 28 5 0 (78) (73) 734 143 519 954 2.68 2011A 4,244 2,979 1,265 619 646 32 39 7 0 67 (53) 745 168 524 805 2.71 2012A 2,719 2,090 630 482 147 34 41 7 0 297 (32) 479 121 327 335 1.69 2013F 3,001 2,300 701 385 316 27 33 6 0 51 (21) 394 87 287 495 1.48 2014F 3,604 2,636 968 426 542 32 38 6 0 54 (25) 628 138 465 716 2.41 ) 2010A 459 519 164 (224) 0 56 34 0 22 515 (17) (256) 166 73 498 2011A (217) 524 159 (900) 0 (305) (237) (57) (12) (523) (60) (75) (78) 92 (583) 2012A 1,476 327 188 962 0 (2) (35) 12 21 1,474 (851) (717) (112) (21) 623 2013F 515 287 179 49 0 (200) (193) 0 (6) 315 (250) (251) (6) 7 65 2014F 385 465 174 (254) 0 80 102 0 (22) 465 (185) (212) 2 26 281 ) 31 ) EBITDA 12 (% ) EBITDA Free Cash Flow (%) EBITDA / (%) (%) (X) (X) Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) (X) (X) (NT$ ) (NT$ EBITDA/shr (X) ) http://research.kgi.com ROIC 12 31 (Return on Invested Capital) 1- 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 12 31 + 63.6% 66.5% 69.9% 70.7% 68.3% 1/ 3.9% 3.7% 6.9% 6.0% 4.8% + 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 18.7% 15.2% 5.4% 10.5% 15.0% 12 16 = 13.8% 14.6% 17.7% 12.8% 11.8% + 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 18.7% 15.2% 5.4% 10.5% 15.0% = 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 x 1- x 12 31 2013 + 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 = 80.6% 77.4% 74.8% 78.0% 78.0% ROIC 20.6% 12.3% 3.9% 8.7% 14.7% 5
  • 6. f H 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 ( Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 ) 16-Dec-13 21.7 22.0 33.7 14-Nov-13 21.6 30.0 22.0 18-Jul-13 24.8 N.A. 30.0 http://research.kgi.com 2013 12 16 6
  • 7. 500 A 2703B-2704 104 201103 700 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ( 40% ) ) 40% (U) 40% (NR) (R ) / * http://research.kgi.com =( / 2013 12 )–1 16 7

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