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Singularity Salon       25 July 2012Space Based Industry       Tony Smith    Kororoit Institute
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]  •   Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]  •   Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism  •   Today’s state of play:Va...
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]  •   Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism  •   Today’s state of play:Va...
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]  •   Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism  •   Today’s state of play:Va...
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]  •   Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism  •   Today’s state of play:Va...
Where I want to go [was: Saturn]  •   Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism  •   Today’s state of play:Va...
Transhumanism and Techno Optimism
Transhumanism and     Techno Optimism•   Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s
Transhumanism and     Techno Optimism•   Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s•   William Gibson: Neuromancer—cybers...
Transhumanism and     Techno Optimism•   Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s•   William Gibson: Neuromancer—cybers...
Transhumanism and     Techno Optimism•   Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s•   William Gibson: Neuromancer—cybers...
Transhumanism and     Techno Optimism•   Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s•   William Gibson: Neuromancer—cybers...
Transhumanism and     Techno Optimism•   Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s•   William Gibson: Neuromancer—cybers...
Today’s value from space
Today’s value from space•   Earth observation: weather, mapping, military
Today’s value from space•   Earth observation: weather, mapping, military•   Telecommunications and geopositioning
Today’s value from space•   Earth observation: weather, mapping, military•   Telecommunications and geopositioning•   Lear...
Today’s value from space•   Earth observation: weather, mapping, military•   Telecommunications and geopositioning•   Lear...
Today’s value from space•   Earth observation: weather, mapping, military•   Telecommunications and geopositioning•   Lear...
•   Earth only    intercepts one    part in 2.2    billion of the    Sun’s energy    output
•   Earth only    intercepts one    part in 2.2    billion of the    Sun’s energy    output•   It took one    stray rock t...
Default assumptionsget us nowhere fast
Default assumptions    get us nowhere fast•   Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly
Default assumptions    get us nowhere fast•   Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly•   Human life support costly...
Default assumptions    get us nowhere fast•   Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly•   Human life support costly...
Default assumptions    get us nowhere fast•   Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly•   Human life support costly...
Default assumptions    get us nowhere fast•   Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly•   Human life support costly...
(Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs
(Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs•   Faster progress in these technologies will kill    incentive for humans to do ...
(Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs•   Faster progress in these technologies will kill    incentive for humans to do ...
(Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs•   Faster progress in these technologies will kill    incentive for humans to do ...
(Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs•   Faster progress in these technologies will kill    incentive for humans to do ...
(Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs•   Faster progress in these technologies will kill    incentive for humans to do ...
Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy
Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy•   Indefinite life extension takes social value of    each human brain way o...
Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy•   Indefinite life extension takes social value of    each human brain way o...
Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy•   Indefinite life extension takes social value of    each human brain way o...
Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy•   Indefinite life extension takes social value of    each human brain way o...
Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy•   Indefinite life extension takes social value of    each human brain way o...
Alternate route to Cyborgs?
Nothing stays the same
Nothing stays the same•   Genetic engineering of complex organisms
Nothing stays the same•   Genetic engineering of complex organisms•   Find neural architecture genes and/or    develop neu...
Nothing stays the same•   Genetic engineering of complex organisms•   Find neural architecture genes and/or    develop neu...
Nothing stays the same•   Genetic engineering of complex organisms•   Find neural architecture genes and/or    develop neu...
Nothing stays the same•   Genetic engineering of complex organisms•   Find neural architecture genes and/or    develop neu...
Before the heat death
Before the heat death•    Why bother to transition beyond human?
Before the heat death•    Why bother to transition beyond human?•    Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes
Before the heat death•    Why bother to transition beyond human?•    Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes•    Interstell...
Before the heat death•    Why bother to transition beyond human?•    Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes•    Interstell...
Before the heat death•    Why bother to transition beyond human?•    Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes•    Interstell...
Before the heat death•    Why bother to transition beyond human?•    Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes•    Interstell...
Or just to see what’s there?  Partying with Keith  Henson in the late  1980s was much  about Alcor and  Keith’s grander pl...
In 1987 Keith Henson founded the Far Edge Committee. The                Those were Keith Hensons travel plans for the imme...
Waiting for Andromeda
Questions?
Questions?•   Keith Henson on Space Solar Power    ‣   http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898
Questions?•   Keith Henson on Space Solar Power    ‣   http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898•   Sulphur Crested Cockatoos: t...
Questions?•   Keith Henson on Space Solar Power    ‣   http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898•   Sulphur Crested Cockatoos: t...
Space based industry
Space based industry
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Space based industry

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Slightly revised version of presentation put together in a hurry for a recent Singularity Salon.

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  • Transcript of "Space based industry"

    1. 1. Singularity Salon 25 July 2012Space Based Industry Tony Smith Kororoit Institute
    2. 2. Where I want to go [was: Saturn]
    3. 3. Where I want to go [was: Saturn] • Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism
    4. 4. Where I want to go [was: Saturn] • Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism • Today’s state of play:Value delivery from space to Earth
    5. 5. Where I want to go [was: Saturn] • Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism • Today’s state of play:Value delivery from space to Earth • Barriers: Escaping gravity well, humans exposed in space
    6. 6. Where I want to go [was: Saturn] • Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism • Today’s state of play:Value delivery from space to Earth • Barriers: Escaping gravity well, humans exposed in space • Synergies: Bulk materials, autonomy spectrum, economy
    7. 7. Where I want to go [was: Saturn] • Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism • Today’s state of play:Value delivery from space to Earth • Barriers: Escaping gravity well, humans exposed in space • Synergies: Bulk materials, autonomy spectrum, economy • Out of left field: Biomimicry and downscaled cyborgs
    8. 8. Where I want to go [was: Saturn] • Background: Space one of four pillars of Transhumanism • Today’s state of play:Value delivery from space to Earth • Barriers: Escaping gravity well, humans exposed in space • Synergies: Bulk materials, autonomy spectrum, economy • Out of left field: Biomimicry and downscaled cyborgs • Into the galaxy: Far edge party, beaming actor updates
    9. 9. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism
    10. 10. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism• Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s
    11. 11. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism• Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s• William Gibson: Neuromancer—cyberspace
    12. 12. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism• Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s• William Gibson: Neuromancer—cyberspace• Eric Drexler: Engines of Creation—nanotech
    13. 13. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism• Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s• William Gibson: Neuromancer—cyberspace• Eric Drexler: Engines of Creation—nanotech• H Keith Henson: L5 Society, Alcor—parties
    14. 14. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism• Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s• William Gibson: Neuromancer—cyberspace• Eric Drexler: Engines of Creation—nanotech• H Keith Henson: L5 Society, Alcor—parties• Cognitive science phase of digital intelligence
    15. 15. Transhumanism and Techno Optimism• Bastard child of PC revolution of the 1980s• William Gibson: Neuromancer—cyberspace• Eric Drexler: Engines of Creation—nanotech• H Keith Henson: L5 Society, Alcor—parties• Cognitive science phase of digital intelligence• Graphical user interface, hypertext, networks
    16. 16. Today’s value from space
    17. 17. Today’s value from space• Earth observation: weather, mapping, military
    18. 18. Today’s value from space• Earth observation: weather, mapping, military• Telecommunications and geopositioning
    19. 19. Today’s value from space• Earth observation: weather, mapping, military• Telecommunications and geopositioning• Learning from rest of cosmos via probes, Hubble, observatories (not only up there)
    20. 20. Today’s value from space• Earth observation: weather, mapping, military• Telecommunications and geopositioning• Learning from rest of cosmos via probes, Hubble, observatories (not only up there)• Almost all our raw energy coupled with short and long term terrestrial aggregators
    21. 21. Today’s value from space• Earth observation: weather, mapping, military• Telecommunications and geopositioning• Learning from rest of cosmos via probes, Hubble, observatories (not only up there)• Almost all our raw energy coupled with short and long term terrestrial aggregators• Tiny but historically significant infall of matter
    22. 22. • Earth only intercepts one part in 2.2 billion of the Sun’s energy output
    23. 23. • Earth only intercepts one part in 2.2 billion of the Sun’s energy output• It took one stray rock to free future Surabaya from non-avian dinosaurs
    24. 24. Default assumptionsget us nowhere fast
    25. 25. Default assumptions get us nowhere fast• Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly
    26. 26. Default assumptions get us nowhere fast• Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly• Human life support costly, worse getting back
    27. 27. Default assumptions get us nowhere fast• Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly• Human life support costly, worse getting back• Material characteristics limit elevators, combined with hoop stress limit ring worlds
    28. 28. Default assumptions get us nowhere fast• Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly• Human life support costly, worse getting back• Material characteristics limit elevators, combined with hoop stress limit ring worlds• Traction beams and rail guns draw heavy load
    29. 29. Default assumptions get us nowhere fast• Getting bulk materials Earth to orbit is costly• Human life support costly, worse getting back• Material characteristics limit elevators, combined with hoop stress limit ring worlds• Traction beams and rail guns draw heavy load• Given an off-planet economy, launch cost for a human less than cost of living on on Earth
    30. 30. (Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs
    31. 31. (Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs• Faster progress in these technologies will kill incentive for humans to do set up in space
    32. 32. (Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs• Faster progress in these technologies will kill incentive for humans to do set up in space• Achieving bulk material production key step
    33. 33. (Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs• Faster progress in these technologies will kill incentive for humans to do set up in space• Achieving bulk material production key step• Supplement with high value items from Earth
    34. 34. (Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs• Faster progress in these technologies will kill incentive for humans to do set up in space• Achieving bulk material production key step• Supplement with high value items from Earth• Ion engines, solar sails, tractor beams
    35. 35. (Semi-)AutonomousRobots, Drones, Cyborgs• Faster progress in these technologies will kill incentive for humans to do set up in space• Achieving bulk material production key step• Supplement with high value items from Earth• Ion engines, solar sails, tractor beams• Large construction can start with solar farms beaming microwaves to farmland receptors
    36. 36. Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy
    37. 37. Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy• Indefinite life extension takes social value of each human brain way off sustainability scale
    38. 38. Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy• Indefinite life extension takes social value of each human brain way off sustainability scale• Life, the Universe and Everything: collect data
    39. 39. Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy• Indefinite life extension takes social value of each human brain way off sustainability scale• Life, the Universe and Everything: collect data• If complex life rare, greater obligation to nest
    40. 40. Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy• Indefinite life extension takes social value of each human brain way off sustainability scale• Life, the Universe and Everything: collect data• If complex life rare, greater obligation to nest• Don’t give up on uploading, nor expect soon
    41. 41. Synergistic partnershipwith off-planet economy• Indefinite life extension takes social value of each human brain way off sustainability scale• Life, the Universe and Everything: collect data• If complex life rare, greater obligation to nest• Don’t give up on uploading, nor expect soon• Even if life extension restricted to off planet, still need to get down to 1 billion on Earth
    42. 42. Alternate route to Cyborgs?
    43. 43. Nothing stays the same
    44. 44. Nothing stays the same• Genetic engineering of complex organisms
    45. 45. Nothing stays the same• Genetic engineering of complex organisms• Find neural architecture genes and/or develop neural interfaces for other species
    46. 46. Nothing stays the same• Genetic engineering of complex organisms• Find neural architecture genes and/or develop neural interfaces for other species• Can fly 100 Sulphur Crested Cockatoos for the same weight/supply cost as one human
    47. 47. Nothing stays the same• Genetic engineering of complex organisms• Find neural architecture genes and/or develop neural interfaces for other species• Can fly 100 Sulphur Crested Cockatoos for the same weight/supply cost as one human• Live as long, plastic social structure, vocalise
    48. 48. Nothing stays the same• Genetic engineering of complex organisms• Find neural architecture genes and/or develop neural interfaces for other species• Can fly 100 Sulphur Crested Cockatoos for the same weight/supply cost as one human• Live as long, plastic social structure, vocalise• Instinctive flying a weightless benefit?
    49. 49. Before the heat death
    50. 50. Before the heat death• Why bother to transition beyond human?
    51. 51. Before the heat death• Why bother to transition beyond human?• Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes
    52. 52. Before the heat death• Why bother to transition beyond human?• Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes• Interstellar challenge to focus tractor beams
    53. 53. Before the heat death• Why bother to transition beyond human?• Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes• Interstellar challenge to focus tractor beams• Extrapolate sci-tech changes of last 500 years
    54. 54. Before the heat death• Why bother to transition beyond human?• Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes• Interstellar challenge to focus tractor beams• Extrapolate sci-tech changes of last 500 years• Mind objects less than 1Gb unique data
    55. 55. Before the heat death• Why bother to transition beyond human?• Eggs in one basket, von Neumann probes• Interstellar challenge to focus tractor beams• Extrapolate sci-tech changes of last 500 years• Mind objects less than 1Gb unique data• Building galactic network for mind updates
    56. 56. Or just to see what’s there? Partying with Keith Henson in the late 1980s was much about Alcor and Keith’s grander plan for a party at the far edge of the galaxy, as Keith described to Ed Regis for Great Mambo Chicken.
    57. 57. In 1987 Keith Henson founded the Far Edge Committee. The Those were Keith Hensons travel plans for the immediategroups sole purpose was to begin planning for the Far Edge Party, future-for the next million years or so-but as extravagant asan enormous gathering of downloaded multiple selves that was to it all was, none of it was in the least impossible, not in thebe held in the far-off future and at the other side of the Milky Way. age of downloading, when every smart person had made and stored away dozens of duplicate selves already. All youHenson came up with the idea after realizing there was no way that had to do was make a number of extra copies of yourself,he personally was going to make a grand tour of the Galaxy if there place them in assembler-made starships, and send themwas only one copy of Keith Henson alive, even if that copy was winging to all corners of creation. Those supplementalsupposed to live forever. He might live forever, but the Galaxy sure downloaded minds would stop at every new star system forwouldnt. as long as they cared to and, in their spare time, would“There are 100 to 200 billion stars in our galaxy alone,” Henson make even more copies of themselves, as well as theirsaid, “and even with nanotechnology to help, it will take a year or spaceships, all of which would then rocket away to the nexttwo per star system, not counting travel time between stars. nearest solar system, where the whole process would repeatVisiting every interesting object in serial is literally impossible, itself. Making new spacecraft wouldnt be any problemsince the interesting places wont last long enough. I dont want to either, not in the era of advanced nanotechnological excess,take such a long time looking over this one small flock of stars that when unending quantities of anything could be had formost of them burn out.” virtually nothing.Plainly there was a problem here: how could a single person see all “So we will sweep across the Galaxy,” Keith Henson said,there was to see if part of your destination went up in smoke while “and converge for a giant party, scientific meeting, and foryou were still in transit? You couldnt, of course, not if you were those who want it, a memory merge, so they can have seenjust one person. But if you were many people—a bunch of parallel all the wonders of the Galaxy.”selves—well, then, that would be a different story. In that case your Naturally, there were a few problems still to be worked out.different selves could visit the Galaxys major hot spots For one thing, a clean sweep of the Milky Way might takesimultaneously, before any of those great cosmic tourist attractions quite some time—a full two hundred thousand years evenhad a chance to evaporate. That way, all of you could see at half the speed of light. How could all the multiple selveseverything. be expected to show up simultaneously after all those“We wont have to make hard choices about which way to go,” years? And where would they meet?Keith Henson said. “We take all roads.” “How do we get them all together at the same place?”Later, after your multiple personalities had collectively experienced Henson wondered. “How do we get back together at a placeall there was to experience, you could get them back together again we cant even see from here? Should we give one party perto communicate and share memories. Each of you would behold galaxy? Or one on the far side of the Virgo cluster? Howwhat every other self had seen and done, so it would be as if a many centuries should we party? How much bean dip willsingle person had in fact done it all. we need?”
    58. 58. Waiting for Andromeda
    59. 59. Questions?
    60. 60. Questions?• Keith Henson on Space Solar Power ‣ http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898
    61. 61. Questions?• Keith Henson on Space Solar Power ‣ http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898• Sulphur Crested Cockatoos: the movie ‣ http://vimeo.com/46665891
    62. 62. Questions?• Keith Henson on Space Solar Power ‣ http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898• Sulphur Crested Cockatoos: the movie ‣ http://vimeo.com/46665891• @ynotds
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