From Technology Transfer to Local Manufacturing: China’s Emergence in the Global Wind Power Industry Dr. Joanna Lewis Senior International Fellow Pew Center on Global Climate Change Presented at the Woodrow Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum October 2, 2006 Photo: Wind farm construction in Inner Mongolia, April 2004.
Smaller average turbine size in emerging markets due to the need “catch up” with advanced technology leaders
Smaller turbine size is still highly useful in some markets
* Estimated beginning of modern, utility-scale wind turbine manufacturing.
Current and potential wind utilization in China
Estimated 1,000,000 megawatts (MW) of total exploitable wind resources (250,000 MW on land + 750,000 MW offshore)
440,000 MW of electric generation capacity in China (2004)
1 large coal plant = 1,000 MW
Current installed wind capacity (770 MW) contributes to less than 1% of national electricity generation
Chinese government plans 20,000 MW of wind power by 2020
EWEA/Greenpeace study says 170,000 MW feasible in China by 2020
Source: NREL, EWEA, China National Bureau of Statistics. Current wind capacity estimated from interviews.
Electricity costs in China ($/kWh) Costs are in US$, converted from Chinese Yuan at $1 = 8.2 Yuan. Sources: Wind cost data: 1990,2000: reported wholesale prices. 2010: projection based on 5% per year decline. Coal cost data: 1990,2000: reported wholesale prices. 2010: estimates based on market projections. Gas cost data: 1990, estimate (minimal gas used for electricity). 2000: estimate based on relative relationship to cost of coal. 2010: estimate based on market projections including recent gas acquisitions. Note: Government has indicated wholesale prices for natural gas may be subsidized. gas coal wind $0.04-$0.07 $0.03-$0.04 $0.01-0.02 $0.03-$0.05 $0.04-$0.07 $0.08-$0.10 $0.07-$0.10 $0.06-$0.08 $0.04-0.07 2010 2000 1990