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Predicting Cancel Users in Offline Events
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Predicting Cancel Users in Offline Events

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  • 1. Predicting Cancel Users in Offline Events @y_benjo http://d.hatena.ne.jp/repose/
  • 2. Today’s LT: ML Machine Learning
  • 3. Offline Events Meetup User Conf Yaki-ton
  • 4. Problem
  • 5. Cancel Users
  • 6. 概要• ファッキンドタキャン野郎を予測し たい
  • 7. Solve:Predict #Cancel
  • 8. Data• Source: ATND Beta (atnd.org/events/)• 17,343 Events (ignore outliers)• 99,911 Users• Model: Support Vector Regression
  • 9. Results Mean Square Error 15 11.4383 12 9 6Better 3 0 Average Title Title + Body
  • 10. Features word scorehbstudy 1.475bpstudy 1.174 増員 1.062appbank 0.771 1981 0.709
  • 11. Future work• Why bad ? • Output minus #cancel • Too simple: Use Metadata(location, time, similar events ...)• Another approach: User based model • Make Blacklist

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