Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar

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Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar

  1. 1. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ، ‫دوره‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺎد‬:‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻨﺪس‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫دﻛﺘﺮاي‬ ‫داﻧﺸﺠﻮي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎت‬ ‫دﺳﺘﻴﺎر‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮاﻳﺶ‬(‫ﺗﺠﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻮم‬ ‫داﻧﺸﻜﺪه‬ ،(GSB)‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬(UKM) ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎت‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫آﻣﻮزش‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬ ‫آﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮب‬ ‫ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫اﻧﺴﺘﻴﺘﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎر‬ ‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬)‫رﺳﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻮز‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎره‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬1834( ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ‬ ‫از‬–‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫درس‬)‫ب‬-‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬(
  2. 2. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  3. 3. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ت‬ â)‫ع‬( à‫أ‬ ‫إ‬‫و‬َ à‫أ‬ àَ à‫أ‬ 9 á3'‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ é‫ر‬ ‫ا‬‫ر‬ 6 5 ‫ر‬‫ا‬ à‫ا‬ à4 ‫و‬ 5 4 ‫و‬ 4‫از‬‫رود‬
  4. 4. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  5. 5. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫کالس‬ ‫در‬ ‫ارزيابی‬ ‫کالسی‬ ‫فعاليت‬ ‫در‬ ‫شرکت‬‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫ماتريس‬ ‫طراحی‬)‫ريسک‬(‫به‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ای‬ ‫رايانه‬ ‫ارائه‬ ‫و‬ ‫الکترونيک‬ ‫پست‬Yavar637@gmail.com ‫پايانی‬ ‫آزمون‬
  6. 6. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ “This is a story about four people named Everybody, Somebody, Anybody, and Nobody. There was an important job to be done and Everybody was sure Somebody would do it. Anybody could have done it, but Nobody did it. Somebody got angry because it was Everybody’s job. Everybody thought Anybody could do it, but Nobody realized that Everybody wouldn’t do it. It ended up that Everybody blamed Somebody when Nobody did what Anybody could have done”
  7. 7. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫نظر‬ ‫تبادل‬ ‫و‬ ‫بحث‬ ‫و‬ ‫مقدماتی‬ ‫تعارﯾف‬
  8. 8. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬
  9. 9. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(Risk) ‫از‬ ‫اي‬ ‫آﻣﻴﺰه‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻋﻮاﻗﺐ‬ ‫و‬
  10. 10. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬
  11. 11. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ا‬ ‫واﻗﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬‫ي‬‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎل‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺟﺎن‬‫اﻧﺴﺎن‬‫ا‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬‫ي‬‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﻧﺪازد‬ ‫ﻧ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺎز‬‫ﻓﻮر‬ ‫اﻗﺪام‬‫ي‬‫اﺿﻄﺮار‬ ‫و‬‫ي‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫داﺷﺘﻪ‬. ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬
  12. 12. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫اﻧﻮاع‬
  13. 13. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  14. 14. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  15. 15. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  16. 16. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  17. 17. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  18. 18. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﻮل‬ ‫داﻧﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫آﻳﺎ‬‫ﺷﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬‫اﺳﺖ؟‬
  19. 19. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬–‫ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎر‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎرﻳﻒ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ x = ‫آﺳﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ارزﺷﻬﺎي‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮض‬
  20. 20. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ x = ‫آﺳﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ارزﺷﻬﺎي‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮض‬
  21. 21. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬
  22. 22. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫به‬ ‫نسبت‬ ‫رويکرد‬ 1-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫حذف‬)‫ريسک‬( 2-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫کاھش‬)‫ريسک‬( 3-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫مديريت‬)‫ريسک‬( 4-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫انتقال‬)‫ريسک‬( 5-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫پذيرش‬)‫ريسک‬(
  23. 23. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  24. 24. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬: ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻳﻜﭽﺎرﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖ‬ ،‫اداره‬‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫ﺑﺎ‬‫وﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫و‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﺪ‬‫ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﺪ‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫و‬‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫روﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرت‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬
  25. 25. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮدار‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫وﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫دارﻧﺪ‬ ‫وﺟﻮد‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﻢ‬
  26. 26. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮاﻓﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ، ‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
  27. 27. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  28. 28. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  29. 29. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  30. 30. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  31. 31. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  32. 32. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫داشته‬ ‫خاطر‬ ‫به‬ ‫و‬ ‫ھا‬ ‫خانه‬ ‫که‬ ‫باشيم‬ ‫نوارھای‬ ‫ھمچنينی‬ ‫در‬ ‫اينکه‬ ‫و‬ ‫رنگی‬ ‫گيرند‬ ‫می‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫کجا‬ ‫حساسيت‬ ‫به‬ ‫بستگی‬ ‫مربوطه‬ ‫کار‬ ‫و‬ ‫کسب‬ )‫از‬ ‫اعم‬:،‫صنعت‬ ‫بخش‬ ‫يا‬ ‫خدمات‬ ‫دارد‬ ‫کشاورزی‬(‫و‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫اھميت‬ ‫ميزان‬ ‫و‬ ‫تاثيرات‬ ‫و‬ ‫رخداد‬ ‫رنگی‬ ‫تنوع‬ ‫پيامدھا‬ ‫قرارگيری‬ ‫نحوه‬ ‫و‬ ‫نوارھای‬ ‫و‬ ‫ھا‬ ‫خانه‬ ‫می‬ ‫تعيين‬ ‫را‬ ‫جدول‬ ‫نمايد‬ ‫ھايی‬ ‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫تدابير‬ ‫به‬ ‫نياز‬ ‫که‬ ‫کاھش‬ ‫و‬ ‫آمادگی‬ ‫دارد‬ ‫اثرات‬ ‫ھايی‬ ‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫قبول‬ ‫قابل‬ ‫که‬ ‫ھستند‬ ‫ھايی‬ ‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫يا‬ ‫بايستی‬ ‫می‬ ‫که‬ ‫اھتراز‬ ‫آنھا‬ ‫از‬ ‫منتقل‬ ‫يا‬ ‫نموده‬ ‫گردند‬ acceptable risks not requiring any specific preventive measure The risks that require preparedness and mitigation the risks that should either be avoided or transferred because their magnitude is very high
  33. 33. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬
  34. 34. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ،‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪي‬‫را‬ ‫زﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻮارد‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬‫آورد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ‬: -‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﻧﺲ‬‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬‫روﻳﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬)‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬–POF( )‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ‬( -‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬‫روﻳﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﺻﻮرت‬ ‫در‬ ، )‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ‬( -‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎر‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫دو‬: )‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(POF)) *‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
  35. 35. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫روزاﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎوت‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺎر‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
  36. 36. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺘﺮل‬:‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫درﺑﺮﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪه‬ ‫ﻛﺎر‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻛﺴﺐ‬ ‫و‬ ‫زﻧﺪﮔﻲ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ،‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﻛﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎر‬‫ﻧﻜﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫را‬–‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺮا‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫اﺗﻼف‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺣﺪ‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ‬‫ﻧﻜﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫را‬–‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺮا‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮان‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎر‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫درﺳﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺗﺨﺎذ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺧﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺪون‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻋﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬. ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰاري‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫را‬‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬.
  37. 37. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ 4‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮص‬ ‫در‬ ‫اﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻮال‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰان‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬)‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﻴﺪ؟‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫دارا‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻣﺠﻮز‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺪودﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬SAP‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺪازﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬*(POF)‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎوت‬ ‫از‬ )‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫واﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﻮد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﮔﻨﺠﺎﻧﺪه‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرت‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫دو‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬) :‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(POF)) *‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ *POF=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬=‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺪدي‬0)‫اﻓﺘﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻲ‬ ‫اﺗﻔﺎق‬ ‫وﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﭻ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬(‫و‬1)‫اﻓﺘﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫اﺗﻔﺎق‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬
  38. 38. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬ ‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ )‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬
  39. 39. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزي‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎده‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬
  40. 40. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎت‬ 1-‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫اﺑﺘﺪا‬ ‫در‬ 2-‫زﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬: 2-1-‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Natural Hazards)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬N 2-2-‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Social Hazards)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬S 2-3-‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Technological Hazards)‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬T ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺪي‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﻪ‬.
  41. 41. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎت‬ 3-‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ،‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﺎت‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺘﮕﺬاري‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺑﺮدن‬ ‫ﻧﺎم‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺮدد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﮕﺬاري‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬)‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬:N12‫در‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫دوازدﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ،‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬)12(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺪ‬(. 4-‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﮕﺬاري‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬(N12)‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺘﮕﺬاري‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬. 5-‫ﺑﺪﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺨﺎب‬ ‫ﺳﺮﮔﺮوه‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ‫از‬ ‫را‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪه‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﮔﺰارش‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫آﺧﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ‫در‬ ‫آﻣﺪه‬
  42. 42. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ N12 ‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Natural Disasters) ‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬N 1-‫ﺳﻮﻧﻮﻣﻲ‬ 2-‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫راﻧﺶ‬ 3-‫ﺣﺸﺮات‬ ‫ﺣﻤﻠﻪ‬ 4-‫ﺳﻴﻼب‬ 5-‫ﺳﻮزي‬ ‫آﺗﺶ‬ 6-‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺴﺖ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺑﺴﻴﺪاﻧﺲ‬ 7-‫ﻫﻮاﻳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫آب‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات‬ 8-‫ﺣﺮارﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎن‬ 9-‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﻮﻓﺎن‬ 10-‫رواﻧﮕﺮاﻳﻲ‬ 11-‫ﻧﻴﻨﻮ‬ ‫ال‬ 12-‫ﻟﺮزه‬ ‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫زﻟﺰﻟﻪ‬ N12‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫روﺑﺮو‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫در‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎره‬ ‫ردﻳﻒ‬12‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬ ‫در‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬
  43. 43. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ N12 N11 N10 N9 N8 N7 N6 N5 N4 N3 N2 N1 S1 S3 S2 T1 T2
  44. 44. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫آﺑﺸﺎري‬ ‫و‬ ‫دوﻣﻴﻨﻮﻳﻲ‬ ‫اﺛﺮات‬‫اول‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬ ‫دوم‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬
  45. 45. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫رﯾسک‬ ‫ماترﯾس‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫پياده‬ ‫تمرﯾن‬
  46. 46. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ ‫تحقيقاتی‬ ‫ھای‬ ‫گروه‬ ‫نماﯾندگان‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫نتاﯾج‬ ‫ارائه‬
  47. 47. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
  48. 48. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ 1- The Australian Journal of emergency management, vol 16, February 2006-Australian Government, 2006. 2- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency Preparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria. 3- Classification of emergency management exersizes.Europe.2006 4- Jeffrey B.Bumgarner, (2008), Emergency management (a reference handbook), ABC-CLIO publications, USA 5- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency- Emergency Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A.( IS195Comp). 6- H.Mirzaei, B.Yavar M.Mirtaheri, The lessons learnt from Gonu Tropical Cyclone, IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland 7- H.Mirzaei, B.Yavar M.Mirtaheri, Lessons learnt from disaster management in Sistan drought along the worlds 7th international pond, IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland 8- The Australian Journal of emergency management, vol 16, Februaru 2006- Australian Govrnment, 2006. 9- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency Preparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria. 10- Classification of emergency management exersizes. Europe. 2006 11- Learning about Natural Disasters Games and projects for you and your friends-A stop disasters publication for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction-IDNDR 1990-2000 12- B.Yavar, M.T Bagherizadeh M.Mirtaheri, “Lessons learnt from Tehran snow disaster management”, DMISA 2008, ATKV GOUDINI SPA, South Africa. 13- Management of Dead Bodies in Disaster Situations, Disaster Manuals Guidelines series, No.5 –PAHO: Pan American Health Organization-WHO: World Health Organization-Washington D.C.,U.S.A.2004 14- VCA Training Guide – Classroom Training and Learning-by-Doing, (March 2008), International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Switzerland 15- Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015, Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, Extract from the Final Report of The World Conference on Disaster Reduction (A/CONF.206/6), International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, United Nations, 2005. 16- Amdabl, Gary, Disaster Response, GIS for Public Safety, (2001), Esri Press, Redland, California, U.S.A ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
  49. 49. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ 17- Weathering the Storm, Participatory Risk Assessment for Informal Settlements, Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme, (2008), University of Cape Town, Periperi Publications, Cape Town, South Africa. 18- Talking About Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages, Produced by the National Disaster Education Coalition: American Red Cross, FEMA, JAEM.IBHS, NFPA, NWS, USDA Csrees, and USGS. 19- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-Emergency Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A. (IS195Comp). 20- Emergency Incident Command system-Emergency Incident Commander - Job Action Sheet-FEMA-1998-U.S.A. 21- Charley Shimanski-Public Information Officers in Search and Rescue Operations-Mountain Rescue Association-Education committee-2004-Evergreen Colorado-U.S.A. 22- FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California organized for potential emergencies)-Incident Command System-Urban Search and Rescue Operational System Description - (ICS-USR-120-1) - Jan 2004.U.S.A. 23- FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California organized for potential emergencies)-Past, Current and Future Directions- A Progress report-1988-U.S.A. 24- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency Preparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria. 25- What is NIMS and ICS, Dept of Homeland Security, 2005, U.S.A. 26- Disaster Response: Principles of Preparation and Coordination, THE INCIDENT COMMAND SYSTEM, by Robert L. Irwin, 2004, U.S.A. 27- HICS , Hospital Incident Command System- Guide Book , California Emergency Medical Services Authority (EMSA), California , U.S.A , August 2006 28- Neighborhood Disaster Volunteers NDV- NDV Resource Package – Part 2: Program Manager’s Handbook, (2005), Swiss Agency for development and Cooperation (SDC) 29- Neighborhood Corps Pocket Guide, A Citizen’s Guide to Organizing Communities for Emergency Preparedness and Response. A Program of DC Citizen Corps.Washington DC Neighborhood Corps.Washington.2004. 30- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-Emergency Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A.( IS195Comp). 31- Emergency Incident Command system- Emergency Incident Commander -Job Action Sheet-FEMA-1998-U.S.A. ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
  50. 50. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ 32-‫آدرس‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺎرﺳﻲ‬ ‫زﺑﺎن‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻔﻮﮔﺮاﻓﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﺼﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ‬:www.infographics.ir 33-‫ﭼﺎپ‬ ،‫ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬ ،‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬ ،‫ﻣﻴﺮﻃﺎﻫﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺜﻢ‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫اول‬1388‫ﺗﻬﺮان‬ ،. 35-‫ﺳﻠﻮارﺟﻮ‬ ،‫ﺑﺎس‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎن‬ ‫ﺗﺪوﻳﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬ ،‫راﻫﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺘﺎب‬ ،‫ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬ ،‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫زﻳﺮﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﺎرﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻮاﻳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﻨﻲ‬ ‫وﻳﺮاﻳﺶ‬ ،‫ﺑﺎﺗﻴﺴﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺪرﻳﻜﺎ‬ ،‫دﻳﭙﺮﻳﻚ‬ ‫دي‬ ‫ﺟﻴﻨﻲ‬ ،‫راﻣﺎﺳﺎﻣﻲ‬ ، ‫اول‬ ‫ﭼﺎپ‬ ،‫ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات‬ ،‫ﻣﻬﺮﻳﺎن‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻪ‬ ،‫ﻣﻴﺮﻃﺎﻫﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺜﻢ‬ ،‫رﺣﻤﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻳﻢ‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬1389‫ﺗﻬﺮان‬ ،. 36-2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
  51. 51. ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬ 51 ‫دﻳﺪار‬ ‫اﻣﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬

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