Bijan Yavar, Definitions, Risk, Emergency, Crisis, Disaster, Certainity, Uncertainity
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Bijan Yavar, Definitions, Risk, Emergency, Crisis, Disaster, Certainity, Uncertainity

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Bijan Yavar, Definitions, Risk, Emergency, Crisis, Disaster, Certainity, Uncertainity Bijan Yavar, Definitions, Risk, Emergency, Crisis, Disaster, Certainity, Uncertainity Presentation Transcript

  • Bijan Yavar • • • • Research Fellow and PHD Student at UKM MEPCO CEO & Founder Disaster Management Institute of Southern Africa Cooperate Member Since 2008 (License Number: 1834) Researcher ID: (A-3544-2010) Disaster Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions (World of Certainty & Uncertainty)
  • Disaster Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions (World of Uncertainty)
  • There are many terms which need more attention such as: Uncertainty, Ignorance, Ignoring the Ignorance, Reliability, Flexibility, perception, vulnerability, risk (soft, Semi Soft and Hard), DRM Theories (Chaos, SCCT, Black Swan Effect, etc), etc. We would hereby explain in brief the Definitions of Risk, Emergency, Crisis and Disaster to prepare a platform for a better understanding, to better decide and act. Disaster Can you Notice , Identify and recognize The Difference Between a Disaster (Natural Caused) and Crisis (Human Caused)? Crisis To better Understand What is an Incident is of high importance to better plan and to implement the exact precautionary actions and also to plan for the preparedness Phase and of course the response phase . Emergency Introduction Risk Definitions (World of Certainty & Uncertainty)
  • Disaster Risk The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period. The definition of disaster risk reflects the concept of disasters as the outcome of continuously present conditions of risk. Disaster risk comprises different types of potential losses which are often difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, with knowledge of the prevailing hazards and the patterns of population and socio-economic development, disaster risks can be assessed and mapped, in broad terms at least. Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability Capacity Disaster Risk Risk is the probability of occurrence and to better say the probability of occurrence of an Incident, Crisis, Disaster or whatsoever it may be. Crisis Risk Emergency Risk Definitions
  • Disaster Risk Perspective (Terms and Terms) 1- Risk Planning 2- Risk Deletion 3- Disaster Risk Reduction 4- Risk Management 5- Risk Transfer 6- Risk Accepted 7- Residual Risk 8- Risk Portfolio 9- Risk Matrix 10- Risk Analysis 11- Risk Assessment 12- Risk Society 13- Risk Treatment 14- etc Crisis Risk Emergency Risk Definitions
  • The oxford English dictionary defines an emergency as: “a serious, unexpected , and potentially dangerous situation requiring immediate action.” in the field of crisis management , emergencies are events that need a professional response from people who are specially trained and equipped to cope with them. Most emergencies are relatively minor events that can be dealt with in a routine way using resources that are normally available. It is evident that not all emergencies are disasters, but all disasters are emergencies, as the latter is much broader and less restrictive term. (Encyclopedia of Crisis Management, 2013) Emergencies can occur either as a result of cumulative processes or as materialization of a sudden threat. (Ibid) Disaster Emergency Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions
  • Crisis As we may know the topic has a multidisciplinary theme. For this the author has suggested to focus on the definition of crisis. There have been many definitions for crisis especially by the new kind and set of crisis generated in today’s changing world from different aspects, viewpoints and different factors internally and externally causing it. Based on the literature reviewed the definition for crisis shows to be problematic and there are some debates on the crisis exact definition (Smith, 2005). Victor L. Heller and his colleague John R. Darling (2012) by referring to (Shelton et al., 2003) have mentioned that crisis definition is related to different variables. Which is means a world of variable verities and diversification. Disaster Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions
  • Crisis Heller and his colleague (2012) has a definition for crisis where it states that: A “crisis” can be determined as senses of fear, panic and peril or danger, and the proportionate intraorganizational impacts that these senses and feelings may have. As stated by Lee (1999) crisis is how and the way to see, which can be a changing and turning point that can be named Sight. From the other hand based on (Darling, et al., 2002) and in the same path, Heller and his colleague (2012) propose that: a Crisis is a time of criticalness and a point for change and turn which can prepare a wrong or better status. The crisis is a condition where it has approached to the crucial stage. crisis has also been defined as a point of change or turn, either in the mindset or whatsoever it may be causing and generating positive and better or negative and worse conditions (Heller, et al., 2012) they also add that a crisis although having large negative effects, even though Big names such as Toyota car manufacturing company as an example can also have positive effects in the firms future life only when it will take its chance and opportunity to make good and correct operations rearrangements (and changes) to help constancy of positive development and growth. Disaster Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions
  • Crisis From a view, crisis is a complex of situations that produces task demand to an organization that is out of the range of an organization’s capability to adapt without the use of the extra significant or frequently external sources (Smith, 2005). Based on another definition mention by (Zhong, 2009) in line with (Parsons ., 1996) crisis is a probability of low occurrence, great impact phenomenon that endangers the livability (and continuity) of organizations and is determined by uncertainty of reason, impact, and means of intent, besides by a faith that as soon as possible the decisions should be made. Crisis is something unexpected and quick by their origin which the majority mainly concentrates on the effects and how to mitigate instead of the causes which generated it (Kippenberger, 1999). It is important to point out that the crisis shows up to twinkle in the most safe assumptions of all cooperations. (Nurmi and darling, 1997 as cited in Heller, et al., 2012) which is been specified as “Black Swan” Crisis in another definition is a horror which cannot be easily seen and is invisible and awaiting us (Parsons, 1996). Disaster Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions
  • Disaster Crisis Emergency Risk Definitions Disaster Disaster Is referred to a critical disorder in a community functioning or vast material, economic, environmental and human (indirect) disorders, effects and destructions involving the community which is beyond the capability to respond and to cope self-sufficiently (UNISDR, 2009). Sometimes Crisis and Disaster are used interchangeably which may cause a misunderstanding and ambiguity. To make it clear, at first the causes of the occurrence of an incident should be analyzed in depth and after the analysis it will help to better understand and distinguish whether the incident occurred has changed into a crisis or a disaster which by this means will help to make better decisions and to act much more accurately.
  • Disaster Crisis B. Penuel, K. Statler, Matt, Hagen, Ryan (Eds.), 2013. The Encyclopedia of Crisis Management, Thousand Oaks: Sage. Heller, L. & Darling, J., 2012. Anatomy of crisis management: Lessons from the infamous Toyota Case, European Business Review Journal, Vol. 24 No. 2, 151168. Kippenberger, T, 2013. Reducing the Impact of the Unexpected, Management Research, MCB UP ltd, 1999 [accessed 23 May 2013] Lee, Young-Jai & Harrald, John R, 1999. Critical issue for business area impact analysis in business crisis management: Analytical capability. Disaster Prevention and Management Journal, 3: 184-189. Parsons, Will, 1996. Crisis Management, Career development International. U.S.A. Senior Partner, and Sterling Management Consultants, 26–28. Perrow, C. 1999. Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies (2nd edn). Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey. Smith, Denis, 2005. Business (not) as Usual: Crisis Management, Service Recovery and the Vulnerability of Organizations, Journal of Services Marketing, 19: 309–320. UNISDR, Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, (2009). United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland. Yavar, Bijan, 2012. SoTech Risks an important context to be taken into consideration, International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC), page: 233, Davos, GRF Press. Zhong, Ying, and Sui Pheng Low .2009. Managing Crisis Response Communication in Construction Projects – from a Complexity Perspective, Disaster Prevention and Management, 18: 270–282. Emergency Sources Risk Definitions (World of Certainty & Uncertainty)