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CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)
 

CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

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Presentation on Yara's Capital Markets Day, December 4, 2012, held by Head of Supply and Trade Alvin Rosvoll

Presentation on Yara's Capital Markets Day, December 4, 2012, held by Head of Supply and Trade Alvin Rosvoll

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    CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll) CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll) Presentation Transcript

    • Supply and Trade focusAlvin Rosvoll, Head of Supply and Trade
    • 1Supply & Trade - Global optimization Downstream S&T Industrial Upstream Biggest industrial buyer of Third single biggest buyer of Significant market Global trade (mt) natural gas in Europe P&K globally share on trade Gas consumption, MMBtu 2011 raw material purchases (mt) Annual trade volumes (mt) 185 7.5 40 7.0 5.0 100 20 11 1.8 25 1.0 25% 10% 30% Europe Canada RoW Potash, MOP Phosphate, rock Ammonia Urea NPK China India Yara Yara share Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 2Converting Brunsbüttel feedstock to gas USD/MMBtu 16 Cheaper feedstock 14 12 Improved efficiency 10 8 Lower emissions 6 4 Improved flexibility 2 0 2010 2011 2012 Brunsbüttel European spot price Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 3Reduced exposure to oil and European gas Yara’s geographic energy exposure Yara’s feed-stock contract structure Europe100 % NAT GAS90 % 15 %80 % 25 %70 %60 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 65 %50 % 55 %40 %30 %20 % -10 % -20 % -20 % -20 %10 % -30 % 0% NON 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 GAS 2006 2009 2010 2012 2013 Europe ROW Non gas* Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 4Profitable spot strategy on naturalgas in Europe €/MWh 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Q1 06 Q4 06 Q3 07 Q2 08 Q1 09 Q4 09 Q3 10 Q2 11 Q1 12 Q4 12 Quarter-Ahead: 21.1€/MWh Day-Ahead: 19.1€/MWh Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 5Neutral impact of ETS phase III introduction Emissions from European ammonia plants N2O emission from European nitric acid plants t CO2/ t kg N2O/t NH3 HNO3 3,5 16 3,0 14 12 2,5 10 2,0 8 1,5 6 1,0 4 0,5 2 0,0 0 1 56 1 109 Number of ammonia plants Number of nitric acid plants CO2 generated (feed,fuel,steam,electr) Benchmark benchmark data Benchmark Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 6Yara is long on ammonia but short in Europe Europe 6.1 4.9 5.1 • Yara-operated ammonia fleet unrivalled giving scale and flexibility Available Use Americas Middle East / Africa 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.1 Asia • Operate 15-18 ships 0.7 Available Use Available Use Available Use • Total shipping capacity of ~260 Australia kilotons 0.8 Marketing agreement 0.3 Yara production External sales Available Use Upgrade Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 7Degree of vertical integration inphosphate and potash Phosphate rock supply and use (mt) Potash supply and use (mt) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 Source Use Source Use External sourcing Own production NPK plant Other Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 8Phosphate and potash strategyredefined in 2009 NPK business heavily impacted in 2008/09 Capacity utilization 2009 97% 90% Decided to intensify search for P & K projects: 63% – Hedging – Finder’s fee Not pursuing fully developed and fully priced mines Urea Nitrates NPK Control of phosphate rock sourcing especially important due to quality and productivity aspects Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
    • 9Yara mining established to create more focuson mining activities Operations of existing mine in Finland Siilinjärvi has brought important competence to Yara in the field of mining Dallol Currently working on four projects, important decisions regarding all four expected during 2013 Considered unlikely that all four will materialize No commitment from Yara at this stage to execute any of the projects Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December