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第9回XBRL勉強会発表資料(代理投稿)
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第9回XBRL勉強会発表資料(代理投稿)

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2010年2月27日 第9回XBRL勉強会 はやしさん発表資料。代理投稿です。

2010年2月27日 第9回XBRL勉強会 はやしさん発表資料。代理投稿です。

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  • 1. SNS3 (GREE, DeNA,mixi) 2010/02/17 1
  • 2. GREE,DeNA,mixi ,IR 2
  • 3. Agenda ✤ DCF Overview ✤ SNS3 ✤ ✤ Valuation ✤ QA 3
  • 4. DCF Overview ✤ FCF ✤ ✤ ✤ etc ✤ etc 4
  • 5. God is no where. ( ) 5
  • 6. God is no where. ( ) God is now here. ( ) 5
  • 7. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3 GREE DeNA mixi 2004 12 1999 3 1999 6 2004 2 2006 12 ( ) 2004 2 139 376 120 83 158 37 2,036 3,217 822 2008 12 2005 2 2006 8 / 1 102 574 226 6
  • 8. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3 GREE 10 DeNA 10 mixi 7 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 7
  • 9. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3 GREE DeNA mixi 59.79% 16.87% 59.10% 7.14% 14.84% 2.05% 7.14% 5.73% 3.98% 2.04% 2.65% 4.60% 1.65% 2.03% 4.19% 1.47% 1.78% 1.35% 3.67% 0.97% 1.20% 3.58% 1.04% 0.97% 3.20% 0.78% 0.95% 0.52% 2.97% 2.94% 0.52% 87.47% 62.59% 71.72% 8
  • 10. GREE 9
  • 11. GREE SNS( ) + ( ) 10
  • 12. GREE 2005/06 2006/06 2007/06 2008/06 2009/06 CAGR ( ) ( ) ( ) CF( ) CF( ) FCF( ) CF( ) 11
  • 13. #%&& $' !"" %!!"" '!!"" (!!"" )!!"" $*!!!"" $*%!!"" $*'!!"" $*(!!"" $*)!!"" %!!(+!$" GREE GREE %!!(+!&" • • • %!!(+!#" %!!(+!," %!!(+!-" %!!(+$$" %!!,+!$" PV %!!,+!&" %!!,+!#" ()** %!!,+!," %!!,+!-" PV %!!,+$$" ./ %!!)+!$" %!!)+!&" !" 0" %!!)+!#" %!!)+!," %!!)+!-" %!!)+$$" ./ .1 %!!-+!$" %!!-+!&" %!!-+!#" %!!-+!," %!!-+!-" %!!-+$$" !" #!" $!!" $#!" %!!" %#!" &!!" !" # !"$ 12
  • 14. GREE GREE !(#$ !"#$ !% !"#$ %#$ !%)!* %&#$ '(#$ &"#$ 20 77 13
  • 15. GREE *$!!!"" )$!!!"" $% ($!!!"" !"## '$!!!"" &$!!!"" %$!!!"" #$!!!"" !"" %!!+,#" %!!+,%" %!!+,&" %!!+,'" %!!-,#" %!!-,%" %!!-,&" %!!-,'" %!#!,#" %!#!,%" 14
  • 16. GREE 15
  • 17. GREE ✤ SNS ✤ 2008 ✤ PV ✤ 20 ✤ ( ) 16
  • 18. DeNA 17
  • 19. DeNA Web SNS+ 18
  • 20. DeNA 19
  • 21. DeNA -./ '#$!!!$!!!"" '!$!!!$!!!"" &#$!!!$!!!"" 80 "# &!$!!!$!!!"" 95 ! %#$!!!$!!!"" %!$!!!$!!!"" #$!!!$!!!"" !"" &!!#(!)" &!!)(!)" &!!*(!)" &!!+(!)" &!!,(!)" 20
  • 22. DeNA PV !" -." %$*!!"" #!$!!!"" %$)!!"" (#$!!!"" %$(!!"" (!$!!!"" '#$!!!"" %$&!!"" PV !"$ $% '!$!!!"" %$!!!"" &#$!!!"" # !"# *!!"" &!$!!!"" )!!"" %#$!!!"" (!!"" %!$!!!"" &!!"" #$!!!"" !"" !"" !) !& !) !( !) !) !) !* !) %! !) %& !+ !& !+ !( !+ !) !+ !* !+ %! !+ %& !* !& !* !( !* !) !* !* !* %! !* %& !, !& !, !( !, !) !, !* !, %! !, %& 21
  • 23. DeNA *!!!" )!!!" (!!!" '!!!" $ !"## &!!!" %!!!" $!!!" #!!!" !" $!!)+#" $!!)+$" $!!)+%" $!!)+&" $!!*+#" $!!*+$" $!!*+%" $!!*+&" $!!,+#" $!!,+$" $!!,+%" 22
  • 24. DeNA $% !)% !+!% )(++% !!% '!% '!% !"## &$!"% &"+)% )+*% &)*(% !")#% &"*'% &!++% !+&+% +'$% !$$!% !!)!% !*(&% !)$*% !!#+% !&"&% '"+% !+($% +&"% !')#% !"#$% !&!'% !&(#% !!)*% !"&'% !!&(% $)'% &""+,$% &""#,!% &""#,&% &""#,)% &""#,$% &""',!% &""',&% &""',)% 23
  • 25. DeNA ( ) &" #" !" &""-' ,"-' +"-' $"-' ."-' )"-' ("-' !"-' #"-' &"-' "-' !"" ("" )"" &*""" &*)"" #""$%"#%"&' #""$%!%&"' #""$%)%&"' #""+%(%&"' #"",%,%&(' !" +-' &#-' &!-' #"-' #)-' #" !"-' !#-' !(-' ("-' (!-' &" .#-' ).-' )!-' ("-' !&-' 24
  • 26. DeNA ✤ 2009 10 4 etc ✤ 3−4 PV (200 →450 ) ✤ ✤ (1 ) 25
  • 27. DeNA ✤ ( ) ✤ ( ) ✤ PV ✤ ✤ ✤ 26
  • 28. mixi 27
  • 29. mixi •mixi( (mixi )) •Find Job!( ) 28
  • 30. mixi 29
  • 31. mixi -./. -./. (#$!!!"" (!$!!!"" $ '$!!!"" !"## &$!!!"" mixi 86 %$!!!"" #$!!!"" !"" #!!)*!+" #!!'*!+" #!!,*!+" -./. +$%&+"" '$(&+"" (!$%+("" -./. %(&"" 0,%"" ))!"" ($+&'"" ($#,0"" '0!"" 30
  • 32. mixi mixi PV &'(' !" -."/-01" -."/2345671" %,!!!"" %#!" $,*!!"" mixi $,&!!"" %!!" $,+!!"" PV $ $,%!!"" $#!" !"# !"$% $,!!!"" # *!!"" $!!" &!!"" +!!"" #!" %!!"" !"" !" !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !& !& !& !& !& !& !( !( !( !( !( !( !* !* !* !* !* !* !) !) !) !) !) !) 31
  • 33. mixi )!"!#$ (%"!#$ !"#$%& (!"!#$ '(#)%& '%"!#$ '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$ !"!#$ &%*&+$&,*&-$'!*')$'%*'-$(!*()$)%*(-$)!*))$)%*)-$ %!*$ !"#"$% "!#"$% 20 90% 32
  • 34. mixi mixi •2009 8 SAP 460 PC:780, Mobile:330 • ( (449 ) (342 ) (217 DeNA )) • PV ( 159 → 227 ) •SAP PV (mixi2 SAP8 ) SAP mixi 33
  • 35. mixi ✤ mixi ✤ PC PV Mobile PV ✤ mixi Mobile PV ✤ 90 ✤ mixi ✤ SAP 34
  • 36. GREE DeNA mixi , ( ) GREE Connect mixi 2010 1 2010 2009 8 PV ,PC 35
  • 37. :'/-() ) *+,+ 56'-%() 0123 54'4;() 45'54() 2"7839 ) *+,+ %/'&.() 0123 4%'%/() 4.'4() *+,+ -/'.() 0123 5&'6() &;';.( ) *+,+ 4-'46( 0123 %5'-4() !"#$ %&'&() %4'6%) *+,+ -.'/() *+,+ :'.4 0123 45'6() 0123 &':&) -'5/ 4'6%) *+,+ 6';- *+,+ .'5: 0123 -'5/) 0123 :'.&) 36
  • 38. ! " !% !"" #!!"" $!!"" %!!"" &!!"" '(!!!"" '(#!!"" '($!!"" '(%!!"" '(&!!"" #(!!!"" !# !% !$ !% !% !% !& !% !% '! •GREE '# !) !# !) •DeNA mixi !$ !) !% +,--" !) !& !) '! !) '# !& ./01" !# !& !$ !& !% !& 2343" !& !& '! !& '# !* !# !* !$ !* !% !* !& !* '! !* '# 37
  • 39. !" -./.0123# -./.0 45660 3# 45660123# (!!"!## '$!"!## •2009 GREE (CM ) '!!"!## • mixi &$!"!## • GREE !"$% &!!"!## # !" %$!"!## %!!"!## $!"!## !"!## !& !( !) !* %! %& !& !( !) !* %! %& !& !( !) !* %! %& !& !( !) !* %! %& !) !) !) !) !) !) !+ !+ !+ !+ !+ !+ !* !* !* !* !* !* !, !, !, !, !, !, 38
  • 40. 39
  • 41. DCF 40
  • 42. DCF ↓ ( ) 10 15 40
  • 43. 2008 9,091 ( 75.3 13 39 95% 75.4% 20 40 90% ↓ 41
  • 44. 2008 6,983 913 ( 147 ) 1,610 ( 114.0 170 ( 200%) 42
  • 45. ( ) GREE 15%( 15% 0 ) 3 4 2000 3000 85 5 2012 ,PV 0.5% 43
  • 46. ( ) DeNA 15%( 15% 0 ) 2−3 30 2 5 2012 ,PV 0.5% 44
  • 47. ( ) mixi 15%( 15% 0 ) mixi mixi SAP 5 2012 ,PV 0.5% 45
  • 48. (2/12 ) GREE 3,561 4,840 -26% DeNA 374,436 657,000 -54% mixi 210,981 517,000 -59% 46
  • 49. → → → 66 ” ” (DeNA,mixi) M&A??? → 47
  • 50. ↓ IR ( ) GREE > DeNA > mixi GREE 48
  • 51. XBRL DB ( ) 49
  • 52. Q&A http://valuation-note.blogspot.com/ 50

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