2009 Predictions for the
Anywhere Economy:
Reloaded
Christopher Collins, Senior Analyst
Phil Hochmuth, Senior Analyst
David Vorhaus, Senior Analyst
July 28, 2009
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Agenda
• Macrotrends of 2009’s
Second Act
• 2009 Predictions
Reloaded
• Summary and Conclusions
• Q&A
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Macrotrends of 2009’s Second Act
The economic crisis appears The transition from
to have bottomed out. product to service
continues undeterred.
Communications spending Consumerization of the
is expected to tick up at the enterprise soldiers on.
beginning of 2010.
In light of these trends, our predictions from December
have evolved at a rapid pace.
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Agenda
• Macrotrends of the Year’s
Second Act
• 2009 Predictions Reloaded
• Summary and Conclusions
• Q&A
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Premium brands will lose market share
• Spending overall on communication products and services is
surprisingly resilient
• Nonetheless, consumers are behaving differently
Consumers will demonstrate
continued vigilance but spending on
connectivity should stabilize in 2H
2009
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Cord-cutters will emerge from the
economic mist
• A dramatic shift in consumer behavior has not yet
materialized
• There is strong evidence of usage substitution and indications
that receptivity to cord-cutting is increasing
Large-scale cannibalization of
broadband lines will become a reality
when mobile alternatives are
acceptable to consumers on the basis
of performance, reliability and price
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Sunny skies are ahead for
cloud computing
• Enterprises continue to seek zero-capex solutions
• Large enterprises remain cautious about embracing IaaS and
PaaS deployments wholeheartedly
Cost-sensitive SMBs will be more
likely to deploy IaaS for affordable
disaster recovery than large
corporations
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Desktop virtualization will replace PC
replacement
• The number of enterprises deploying VDI technology is
growing dramatically
Enterprise penetration of VDI will
deepen as businesses realize the
associated cost savings and spread
the technology beyond the traditional
desk-bound task worker
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Two of the eight global network
equipment manufacturers will be forced
out of major markets
• Nortel files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January
• Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and Nokia Siemens have been
resilient in 1H despite decreased service provider capex
spending
It is unlikely that another one of the
major players will collapse in the
same fashion as Nortel within the
calendar year
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Subsidies on smartphones will strangle
operator profits
• Subsidies remain a powerful customer acquisition tool and
continue to prop up sales of high-end devices
• Nonetheless, subsidies are having a devastating effect on
operator profitability
Tier 1 operators will continue to use
subsidies, but the outstanding growth
of no-contract plans and legal
pressure on the subsidy model
threaten to reverse this trend
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Agenda
• Macro Trends of the
Year’s Second Act
• 2009 Predictions
Reloaded
• Summary and Conclusions
• Q&A
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2009 Predictions Summary
• Premium brands will lose marketshare
• Cord cutters will emerge from the economic mist
• Sunny skies for cloud computing
• Desktop virtualization will replace PC replacement
• Two of the eight global network equipment manufacturers will be forced
out of major markets
• Subsidies on smartphones will strangle operator profits
• Wired switch port sales will decline for the first time in history
• Video enabled business processes will be born in 2009
• Door will close to open access devices in 2009
• Point network software solutions will miss the mark
Want to see the predictions reloaded? Read our new report,
“Yankee Group’s 2009 Predictions… Reloaded”
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Conclusions
• Spending is still growing . . . in very specific ways.
• Customers are demanding greater flexibility, lower costs and
higher-touch services.
• The desire for communications technology innovation
remains, but the commitment is lacking.
While we haven’t come full circle yet,
there’s light at the end of the tunnel.
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Agenda
• Macro Trends of the
Year’s Second Act
• 2009 Predictions
Reloaded
• Summary and Conclusions
• Q&A
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Additional resources
• Yankee Group Research Reports:
• Mobile Feels the Recessionary Chill by Declan Lonergan
• Bundle Up for Broadband Cord Cutters by Andy Castonguay
• Providers Must Clear Security Uncertainty in the Cloud by Agatha
Poon and Phil Hochmuth
• Desktop Virtualization Tames Endpoints Gone Wild by Phil Hochmuth
• Yankee Group’s Globel Telecommunications Capex Forecast by Brian
Partridge and David Vorhaus
• The Golden Subsidy Egg’s Goose Is Cooked: Welcome to the Brave
New Subsidy-Free World (forthcoming) by Andy Castonguay
Download the reports at http://www.yankeegroup.com
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Thank you!
Christopher Collins, Senior Analyst, ccollins@yankeegroup.com
Phil Hochmuth, Senior Analyst, phochmuth@yankeegroup.com
David Vorhaus, Senior Analyst, dvorhaus@yankeegroup.com
Next Yankee Group webinar:
Getting Consumers’ Attention with Anywhere Media
August 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy:
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25, 2009 July 2009 Page 16
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