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2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: Reloaded

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Yankee Group predicted 2009 would be a watershed year that would drive profound changes to forever alter the communications landscape. Just six months into 2009, we revisit our top 10 predictions to …

Yankee Group predicted 2009 would be a watershed year that would drive profound changes to forever alter the communications landscape. Just six months into 2009, we revisit our top 10 predictions to discuss the dramatic shifts that have already taken place and give our outlook for 2H 2009 and beyond. Who will be the winners and losers?

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  • 1. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: Reloaded Christopher Collins, Senior Analyst Phil Hochmuth, Senior Analyst David Vorhaus, Senior Analyst July 28, 2009 © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 1 © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Reloaded www.yankeegroup.com
  • 2. Agenda • Macrotrends of 2009’s Second Act • 2009 Predictions Reloaded • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 2 Reloaded
  • 3. Macrotrends of 2009’s Second Act The economic crisis appears The transition from to have bottomed out. product to service continues undeterred. Communications spending Consumerization of the is expected to tick up at the enterprise soldiers on. beginning of 2010. In light of these trends, our predictions from December have evolved at a rapid pace. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 3 Reloaded
  • 4. Agenda • Macrotrends of the Year’s Second Act • 2009 Predictions Reloaded • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 4 Reloaded
  • 5. Premium brands will lose market share • Spending overall on communication products and services is surprisingly resilient • Nonetheless, consumers are behaving differently Consumers will demonstrate continued vigilance but spending on connectivity should stabilize in 2H 2009 © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 5 Reloaded
  • 6. Cord-cutters will emerge from the economic mist • A dramatic shift in consumer behavior has not yet materialized • There is strong evidence of usage substitution and indications that receptivity to cord-cutting is increasing Large-scale cannibalization of broadband lines will become a reality when mobile alternatives are acceptable to consumers on the basis of performance, reliability and price © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 6 Reloaded
  • 7. Sunny skies are ahead for cloud computing • Enterprises continue to seek zero-capex solutions • Large enterprises remain cautious about embracing IaaS and PaaS deployments wholeheartedly Cost-sensitive SMBs will be more likely to deploy IaaS for affordable disaster recovery than large corporations © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 7 Reloaded
  • 8. Desktop virtualization will replace PC replacement • The number of enterprises deploying VDI technology is growing dramatically Enterprise penetration of VDI will deepen as businesses realize the associated cost savings and spread the technology beyond the traditional desk-bound task worker © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 8 Reloaded
  • 9. Two of the eight global network equipment manufacturers will be forced out of major markets • Nortel files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January • Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and Nokia Siemens have been resilient in 1H despite decreased service provider capex spending It is unlikely that another one of the major players will collapse in the same fashion as Nortel within the calendar year © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 9 Reloaded
  • 10. Subsidies on smartphones will strangle operator profits • Subsidies remain a powerful customer acquisition tool and continue to prop up sales of high-end devices • Nonetheless, subsidies are having a devastating effect on operator profitability Tier 1 operators will continue to use subsidies, but the outstanding growth of no-contract plans and legal pressure on the subsidy model threaten to reverse this trend © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 10 Reloaded
  • 11. Agenda • Macro Trends of the Year’s Second Act • 2009 Predictions Reloaded • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 11 Reloaded
  • 12. 2009 Predictions Summary • Premium brands will lose marketshare • Cord cutters will emerge from the economic mist • Sunny skies for cloud computing • Desktop virtualization will replace PC replacement • Two of the eight global network equipment manufacturers will be forced out of major markets • Subsidies on smartphones will strangle operator profits • Wired switch port sales will decline for the first time in history • Video enabled business processes will be born in 2009 • Door will close to open access devices in 2009 • Point network software solutions will miss the mark Want to see the predictions reloaded? Read our new report, “Yankee Group’s 2009 Predictions… Reloaded” © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 12 Reloaded
  • 13. Conclusions • Spending is still growing . . . in very specific ways. • Customers are demanding greater flexibility, lower costs and higher-touch services. • The desire for communications technology innovation remains, but the commitment is lacking. While we haven’t come full circle yet, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 13 Reloaded
  • 14. Agenda • Macro Trends of the Year’s Second Act • 2009 Predictions Reloaded • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 14 Reloaded
  • 15. Additional resources • Yankee Group Research Reports: • Mobile Feels the Recessionary Chill by Declan Lonergan • Bundle Up for Broadband Cord Cutters by Andy Castonguay • Providers Must Clear Security Uncertainty in the Cloud by Agatha Poon and Phil Hochmuth • Desktop Virtualization Tames Endpoints Gone Wild by Phil Hochmuth • Yankee Group’s Globel Telecommunications Capex Forecast by Brian Partridge and David Vorhaus • The Golden Subsidy Egg’s Goose Is Cooked: Welcome to the Brave New Subsidy-Free World (forthcoming) by Andy Castonguay Download the reports at http://www.yankeegroup.com © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: July 2009 Page 15 Reloaded
  • 16. Thank you! Christopher Collins, Senior Analyst, ccollins@yankeegroup.com Phil Hochmuth, Senior Analyst, phochmuth@yankeegroup.com David Vorhaus, Senior Analyst, dvorhaus@yankeegroup.com Next Yankee Group webinar: Getting Consumers’ Attention with Anywhere Media August 2009 Predictions for the Anywhere Economy: © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 25, 2009 July 2009 Page 16 Reloaded

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