羅瑞瑜:German solar pv development and subsidy policy @ TEDx溫羅汀 Pre-event

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羅瑞瑜:German solar pv development and subsidy policy @ TEDx溫羅汀 Pre-event

  1. 1. German solar PV development and subsidy policy Ray Loa 1
  2. 2. What is in your mind when people talk about solar energy? • Solar energy has huge potential so we should all focus on solar • Solar energy is not efficient so we should focus on other renewable energy sources instead 2
  3. 3. Germany set solar PV power record by supplying 40% of total electricity demand. • On July 7th, 1:45pm, PV power supplied 40% of the total electricity demand in Germany (23.8GW) • 5% of the electricity came from PV in 2012 ~10 times the world average (0.5%) >100 times compared to Taiwan (0.03%) 3 Source: SMA Solar Technology; Taiwan Power Company; Deutshe Bank
  4. 4. Grid parity is a key concept in renewable energy development. • PV installation will boom after grid parity is reached – residential > commercial > industrial • Italy and India have reached grid parity, according to Deutsche Bank, Germany and Japan are close • Before grid parity is reached, PV development is driven by subsidies, such as Feed-in-tariff (FIT) 4 Source: US Department of Energy; Deutsche Bank Grid parity definition: LCoE <= Electricity rate
  5. 5. Phase I (2000-2009) Phase II (2010-2011) Phase III (2012-) Objective Ground-mounted Ground-mounted Rooftop PV system price (Euro/Wp) 3-5 2 1.6 FIT(ct/kWh) 46-62 24-39 13.5-19.5 FIT rate degression Flat monthly Flat monthly Flat monthly + Volume-based Threshold No No 52GW by 2020 German FIT policy is divided into three phases by different objectives and FIT designs. 5 Source: Deutsche Bank; BSW-Solar;Apricum GmbH
  6. 6. German FIT policy successfully drove domestic PV installations. 6 Cumulative installed PV capacity and YoY% in Germany (2000-2012) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YoY% CumulativeinstalledPVcapacity[MWp] Year Source: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit - BMU
  7. 7. Taiwan has launched Million Rooftop PVs Promotion with FIT and tender design. • 130MW of total PV installation is targeted in 2013, which is divided into non- tendered (40MW) and tendered (90MW) • The objective is first rooftop, then ground-mounted PV installation • Appealing FIT is expected to drive PV installation (IRR = 10%, PP = 9yr) • Threshold yearly installation and tender process are adopted 7 Installation scale Phase I (Jan. 1st-Jun. 30th) [NTD/kWh] Phase II (Jul 1st-Dec. 31st) [NTD/kWh] Tender process Rooftop 1-10kWh 8.3971 8.1836 No 10-100KWh 7.5432 7.3297 No 100-500kWh 7.1162 6.9027 Yes >500kWh 6.3334 5.9776 Yes Ground-mounted >1kWh 5.9776 5.6218 Yes Source: Taiwan Million Rooftop PVs Promotion Office
  8. 8. Taiwan PV subsidy policy started slow but is equipped with comprehensive design. • High FIT rate at front will boost PV installation, and FIT rate degression will take place along the timeline • Threshold yearly installation and tender process are adopted to control quantity and quality of PV installaiton • Rooftop PV is targeted as main objective considering Taiwan’s land limitation, remote PV is recommended • Other issues as energy transition period and energy storage are needed to be tackled along the PV development 8
  9. 9. Back up slides 9
  10. 10. 30% of the solar energy in one second can supply one year global electricity demand. 10 Source: KTH Renewable Energy Technology course
  11. 11. German PV system price dropped by 50% from 2006-2011 with continued momentum. 11
  12. 12. Efficiency roadmap of solar cell technologies. 12 Source: NREL
  13. 13. Italy has reached grid parity by high power price and high energy yield. 13
  14. 14. Solar PV power has flatten the load curve in Germany. 14 Source: Energy Rebellion

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